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Baltic Rim Economies Estonia - Latvia - Lithuania - Poland - Baltic Russia Bimonthly Review ISSUE NO. 5, 31 OCTOBER 2008 ECONOMIC REVIEWS: ESTONIA Page 1 LATVIA Page 2 LITHUANIA Page 3 POLAND Page 4 ST. PETERSBURG Page 5 LENINGRAD REGION Page 6 KALININGRAD REGION Page 7 EXPERT ARTICLES: José Manuel Durão Barroso: EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region Page 8 Paula Lehtomäki : Cleaner, safer and brighter future of the Baltic Sea Page 9 Jaak Aaviksoo: Events in Georgia provoke discussions on security in good, old, peaceful Europe Page 10 Siiri Oviir: Gas pipeline to the Baltic Sea – should it come in a civilized way or under the dictate of the big and the powerful? Page 12 Artis Pabriks: Baltic security reflections in the aftermath of the Russian-Georgian conflict Page 13 Efthimios E. Mitropoulos: Busy Baltic to benefit from global pollution measures Page 14 Jari Luoto: EU focuses on the Baltic Sea Page 15 André Mernier: A role for the Energy Charter in a new Russia-EU Partnership Agreement Page 16 Timo Rajala: Finland is facing major energy decisions Page 18 Karlis Mikelsons: Environmentally friendly for sustainable growth Page 19 Reinier Zwitserloot: Nord Stream – making more European energy solidarity possible Page 20 Viktoras Valentukevicius: Current and future activities of Lietuvos Dujos AB Page 21 Seppo Remes: Russian gas can unite Europe – if we allow it Page 22 Aleksandra Mierzyńska and Krzysztof Parkoła: PGNiG – trying to be one step further Page 24 Tapio Reponen: Profiling as a key success factor in modern university strategies Page 25 EXPERT ARTICLES CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE To receive a free copy, print or register at www.tse.fi/pei Baltic Rim Economies ISSUE NO. 5, 31 OCTOBER 2008 EXPERT ARTICLES CONTINUED: Markus Ederer: Germany and the Baltic Sea Region – challenges and opportunities for cooperation on energy security Page 26 Jyrki Terva: Russia’s ability to use its energy might Page 27 Tomasz Zadroga: Activities of the Polish Energy Group Page 28 Yury S. Kadzhoyan: D-6 development – dialogue with the local communities and the government Page 29 Janek Parkman: Estonian oil shale sector undergoing changes Page 30 Christian Lund: Energizing opportunities Page 31 Erkki Kotiranta: The Russian Arctic is turning into an important energy supply route to Europe alongside the Baltic Sea Page 32 Jyrki Vähätalo: Safe and reliable global maritime transport of dangerous chemical cargo via the Baltic Sea Page 33 Peter F. Johnston: Al Qaeda’s threat to oil and gas assets in the Baltic Region Page 34 Arild Moe and Lars Rowe: Russian shipbuilding – is a rapid turnaround possible? Page 35 Urpo Kivikari: Institute’s turning points and highlights Page 36 Simon-Erik Ollus: The global financial turbulence and Russia Page 37 Rainer Nõlvak: From Russia, with gas Page 38 Kari Liuhto: EU's growing energy import dependency a major risk Page 39 To receive a free copy, print or register at www.tse.fi/pei Baltic Rim Economies, 31.10.2008 Bimonthly Review 5ƒ2008 Estonia Economy in serious problems Inflation soars – still over 10% annually According to a preliminary estimate by Statistics Estonia, The increase in the consumer price index was 10.5% in GDP decreased by 1.1% in the second quarter of 2008 September y-o-y according to Statistics Estonia. The compared to the second quarter of 2007. This was one of the annual index was mainly influenced by the price increases worst figures in several years, as the decline of the Estonian of food which accounted for a fourth, the price increases of economy steepens. Small domestic demand and the alcohol and tobacco products and by the increased rates of decrease in exports of goods and services were the main excise duties, which accounted for a fifth of the price rise. factors in the decrease of the GDP. During the same Motor fuels, heat energy, heating fuel and electricity comparison time, domestic demand decreased by 2.8% grouped together gave a fourth of the total price change. mainly because of the decrease in private consumption and The increase in the index from August to September was capital investments. Major factors influencing the decrease in 0.6%. This was mainly influenced, among other things, by private consumption were the decrease in expenditures on price increases in tobacco products proceeding from the transport and clothing and footwear. Capital investments in change in the excise duty rates and the seasonal price the financial and household sector faced a decrease. increase in clothing and footwear. The prices for vegetables However, investments by manufacturing were approximately and motor fuel, however, decreased. on the same level. According to the Bank of Estonia, the consumer price The Estonian economy is gathering mainly cloudy index will increase by approximately 11.0% this year. assessments from official sources. According to the IMF Inflation will remain high mainly due to the globally rising World Economic Outlook, Central and Eastern European prices of food and energy. However, the Central Bank economies are facing a significant slowdown. Like all the forecasts that the inflation rate will drop to 4.8% in 2009 Baltic countries, Estonia will face some of the steepest and close to the Maastricht inflation criteria by the end of challenges due to a wide current-account deficit, excessive 2010. government spending and a high inflation rate. News from private actors is also negative. Firstly, Fitch Change of the consumer price index in selected Ratings has downgraded the long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings and the country ceiling for commodity groups in September 2008 (%) Estonia. The country ceiling was downgraded from ´AA´ to Commodity group y-o-y Previous ´AA-´. Secondly, Swedbank is planning its operations in month Estonia based on the assumption than GDP will not grow in Food and non-alcoholic beverages 13.9 -0.3 2008 or 2009. And Hansabank representatives have stated Clothing and footwear 3.7 2.9 that the current high inflation level is a key obstacle for Housing 11.9 0.0 Estonia’s goal of Euro adoption in 2011. The Bank of Estonia sees some key issues in the Transport 12.1 -1.3 recovery of the economy. First, the question is if Estonian Hotels, cafés and restaurants 13.0 1.0 companies can maintain their competitiveness. Second, will TOTAL 10.5 0.6 the labour market be flexible enough in its reaction. The Source: Statistics Estonia worldwide financial crisis has also hit Estonia and one key question is if the economy can manage while the trust in Some business highlights financial markets returns. Mobile operator Elisa is planning an investment into the development of a 3.5G mobile internet network. The investment is estimated to be worth tens of million Industrial production decreases by 3% euros and the time span for the investment is estimated to be three years. The data of Statistics Estonia shows that industrial production The Estonian confectionery producer AS Kalev has reported a profit of EUR 12 decreased by 3% in August compared to August of the million. The profit originates, for the most part, from a successful compensation previous year. Manufacturing fell by 2% which was mainly claim from another company. caused by the decrease in orders, both in the domestic The remaining 50% of Gild Real Estate, the real estate investment funds market and abroad. The decrease in manufacturing was managing company, have been bought by GILD Bankers. The company already owned 50% and has now purchased the remaining share from Uus Maa. mainly affected by a decrease in the production of food, wood Estonia’s once booming call centre business has stagnated lately. For instance, and construction materials. The most significant fall, 26%, hotel chain Hilton closed its 120-person operation in Tallinn a year ago. Experts was recorded in the production of building materials which say that Estonian wages have grown so that call centres are not as profitable as reflects the decrease in construction volumes. However, like they used to be earlier in the decade. in the previous months, some export-oriented industry The World Bank report entitled “Doing Business 2009” ranks Estonia as 22nd out branches still enjoyed growth. The production of electrical of 181 countries in the ranking of the easiest countries to invest in. Last year machinery (25%), metal products (16%) and chemicals (5%) Estonia ranked slightly better in 18th position. It takes approximately seven days grew when compared to August of the previous year. to establish a company in Estonia. Estonia - main economic indicators 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 as of GDP (y-o-y %-growth, constant prices) 7.9 6.5 8.0 7.2 8.3 10.2 11.2 7.1 -1.1 Q2/2008 Industrial production (y-o-y %-growth) 14.6 8.9 8.2 11.0 10.5 11.0 7.3 6.1 -3.0 8/2008 Inflation (CPI, end of period, y-o-y %-change) 5.0 4.2 3.6 1.3 3.0 4.1 4.4 9.6 10.5 9/2008 General government budget balance (% of GDP) -0.6 0.3 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.3 3.8 2.8 n/a 1-12/2007 Gross wage (period average, EUR) 314 352 393 430 466 555 596 784 840 Q2/2008 Unemployment (% end of period) 13.9 11.9 11.3 9.3 8.5 7.9 5.9 4.7 4.0 Q2/2008 Exports (EUR million, current prices) 3445 3698 3642 4003 4770 6190 7647 8028 5605 1-8/2008 Imports (EUR million, current prices) 4615 4798 5079 5715 6704 8213 10576 11278 7345 1-8/2008 FDI inflow (EUR million, current prices) 425 603 307 822 775 2255 1341 1817 783 H1/2008 Current account (% of GDP) -5.5 -5.6 -10.6 -11.6 -12.5 -10.5 -14.8 -17.4 -10.0 Q2/2008 Sources: Statistics Estonia, Bank of Estonia, Eurostat, author's calculations 1 Pan-European Institute To receive a free copy please register at www.tse.fi/pei Baltic Rim Economies, 31.10.2008 Bimonthly Review 5ƒ2008 Latvia Economy stagnates The Bank of Latvia projects that the second half of the year The second quarter GDP growth was only 0.1 % according to will see a decreasing inflation rate which will gradually the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia.
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