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Mineral Resources and the Environment. - INSTITUTION National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C DOCUMENT RESUME vi ED 125 86Q S2 019 5341 TITLE Mineral Resources and the Environment. - INSTITUTION National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. SPONS AGENCY Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C.; National Science Foundation, Washington; D.C.; Populattion Council,,New York, N.Y. REPORT NO ISBN-0-309-02343-2 PUBDATE. 75 NOTE '362p. AVAILABLE FROM Printing and Publishing Office,NationalAcademy of Sciences, 2101 Constitution Avenue, 4.W.,,Washington, D.C. ,20418 ($6.00) .EDRS PRICE MF7$0.83 HC-$19.41 plUs.Postage. DESCRIPTORS *Conservation (Environment); *Economic Fa tors; Energy; *Environment; *Fuels; *Natural Reso rces; Tolicy-FormatiOn; Pntlic Health; Resource Allocations; Technology IDENTIFIERS *Minerals ABSTRACT This report,,Presents the findings and recommendations ___ of panels created by the Combittee on Mineral ResourceS'And the Environment (COMRATE) to .9tod, four topic areas of mineraINAresou,rces and the environment. The topic areas studied by the panels were: technology, supply,." the environment, and demand. Section I; the report of :the technology panel, is s-a broad coverage of the entire area under consideration. The panel presented anoverview summary of the large body of contributed essays on specific aspects of the topic. Sections II and III, the reports of the supply and environment panels,' are case studies. Section II discusses supplies of the fossil fuels and of copper as major representatives of two categories of mineral resources. For section III, coal was selected for exclusive study., Section IV, the report of the demand panel, sets the specific questions of technology, supply, and'environment 'addressed in the preceding sectiOnsdn the larger socio-economic perspective of demand fi Tor energy, and of the implli.cations of demand forecasting, for both supply and demand for minerals. All four sections'areaugmented by separate appendix volumes. (BT) tj4 *********************i************************************************* * , Documents acquired-by ERIC include many informal unpublished * materials not available from other sources. ERIC makes every effort * * 'to obtain the best copy available. Nevertheless, items ofmarginal, * * reproducibility are often encountered and this affects thequality * * of the microfiche-and hardcopy reproductions ERIC makesavailable *, * via the ERIC Document Reproduction Service (EDRS). EDRSis not * responsible for the quality of the original document.Reproductions * * supplied by.EDRS are the best that can be made frcm the original.' * ******************44*************************************************** U S DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH; EDUCATION & WELFARE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRO- DUCED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIGi ATING IT POINTS OF VIEW OR OPINION STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRE- SENT Oft F lCiAL NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY 49 Mineral Resources and the Environment A report prepared by the Committee on Mineral Resources and the Environment (COMRATE) Commission on Natural Resources, National Research Council .NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WASHINGTON, D.C. 1975 , NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, acting in behalf of the National Academy of Sciences. Such approval reflects the Board's judgement that the project is of national importance and appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of the National Research Council. The members of the committee selected to undertake thiprojecr and pre- pare this report were chosen for recognized. scholarly competence and with due consideration for the balance of disciplinesappropriate to the Project. Responsibility for the detailed aspects of this report rests with t at committee. Each report issuing from-a study committee of /the National Rese rch Council is reviewed by an independent group of qualified individuals according to procedures established and monitored by the Report Review Committee of the National Academy of Sciences. Distribution of the report is approved, by the President of the Academy, upon satisfactory completion of the reviewprocess. This study was supported in part by the Department of the Interior,. The National Science Foundation and The Population Council. Library of Congsess Catalog Card Number: 75-4176 ISBN 0-309-02343-2 I Available from Printing and Publishing Office National Academy Of Scienc-es ,2101 Constitution Avenue, NM. II Washington, D.C. 20418 IPrinted in the United. States of America TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF COMRATE AND PANEL MEMBERS i COMM H1STO vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction Two-Points of View a The Theme of Interdependence 2 General Conclusions 3 Summary of Pit el Findings and Recommendations Generaj 5 Report of the'Panel on MaterialsConservation. Through Technology- 6 Ei Report of the Panel on Estimation of Mineral Reserves and Resources Report of the .Panel on the Implications of Mineral Production for Health and the Environment: The Case of,Coal T 10 ' Report of the .Panel on Demand for Fuel and Mineral. Resources r 12 0 SECTION 1: MATERIALS CONSERVATION THROUGH TECHNOLOGY 17 Chapter 1: Introduction to Section 1- , Synopsis., of Recommendations .17 Federal 'Roles in StimulatingTechnology _23.. 26 Chapter II: Broad Concerns . ' 26 Materials Supply and,Demand . ,0 The Materials Cycle and the Materials . 28 Energy - Environment System . Raw Materials and Interdependence:' : L- 31 Conservation Ethic . 36 38 Industrial Symbiosis \ ., Capital Constraints 39 o 41. ManpowerConstraints hys.ical and Technical Coltraints 43 49 Time Constraints -- es, a , Civapter III: Technological Opportunities in the Matoliols Cycle to Offset Shortages, 51 A. Energy Sources 51 B. Pollution Control - 52 C. Mineral Exploration 54 D. Mining 54 E. Beneficiation - 56 F. Primary Metal Production 57 G. Recycling 60 H. Product Design 64 I. Substitute Materials 65 SECTION II: ESTIMATION OF MINERAL RESERVES AND/RESOURGES Chapter 1V: Introduction to Section II 77 General Conclusions 77 Chapter.V: Resources of Fossil Fuels 79 Introduction Oil s 82 Gas 86 Undiscovered Recoverable Resources of-Oil and Gas 87 Future Rates of U.S. Petroleum Production 91 Unrecovered Resources of Petroleum in Known Oil Fields of-the United States 91- World Oil Resources Speculative Resources of Oil and Ga.s 93 Shale Oil 94 Tar Sands 96 Coal 96 Comparison of Energy fromFossif Fuels with Earth' Energy from Certain Other Sources-. 97 Chapter VI: Resources of Copper 127 Introduction 127 The Amount of Recoverable Copper in the Earth's Crut 128 Size of Identified Copper Deposits of the World 130 Copper Resources of the World 135 United States Production Capability 142 Cost of Mineral Discovery 146 9 / SECTION 1II: THE IMPLICATIONS OF MINERAL PRODUCTION FOR HEALf4.1,OWTHE ENVIRONMENT: THE CASE OF COAL'` 187 Chapter VII: inti:oduction to Section Extraction ~ 188 Use 190 Chapter VIII: ProjectN Demands, Resources 191 Properties of Coal_ 193 Area of Land Needed 194 Manpower,Needs 194i Caipital Investment 203/ Chapter TX:. 'Extraction 203 Accidents . 213 Coal Workers' Pneumoconiosis , Acid Mine"DraIfiage, Reclamation 227 Use 441, Chaptcr-X: 227 Sulfur Missions, AtmosphericReactions 237 Acid Raip 240 Public Health- 248 Coal Combustion: Control Strategies 252 Annex: The Zlobai Sulfur Cycle SECTION TV: DEMAND 'FOR VEL AND MINERALRESOURICES Introduction to Section IV 259 Chapter XI: 260 Integration and 'Analysis of,Information 262 Potential for Influencing Demand 265 Synops.i,s of Recommendations Chapter XII: Do Recent Projections ofEnergy Demand Provide Reasonable 266 Policy, Targets? , 266 Demand, Consumption. or Necd?,:i 268 SomeA Recent Demdnd Projections 275 Growth of GNP and Use of Materials - Chapter %f11: 275 Rates of Use 278 The Prospect of GNP Growth e m. A 0 Chapter XIV:',National and internationalDemographic Trends: The Relation lo the Demand for Mine. Resources in the United 1 States up to the Year 2000 281 , U.S: Population Growth: Current and Prcispective 281 Non-U.S Population Growth: Current and Prospective 284 Chapter XV: Rising Pfices for Enerty/Minerals and Adjustment, to Supply Constraints 287 Environmental and Social Costs 287 The Role of Prices in Materials Use 290 Popular Reactions to the Energy,Crisis- 291 Chapter XVI: U.S. Consumption Patterns and Future Iemand for Energy 297 Increased Consumption of Services Relative. to Goods 297 Time Constraints on Consumption 300 Chapter XVII: Design. and Use of Projections for Policy 302 Forecasts as, Instruments for Policy 302 Long-Term Forecasting--The State of the Art 302 Thee Dilemma of Forecasts: TheNeed for 3 licy Forecasts 304 Chapter XVIII: Conclusions and Recommendations 306 Conclusions 306 Recommendations 307 Annex to Section IV; A Minority View 310 BIBLIOGRAPHY OF REFERENCES 317 SectionI References = 317, Section II References: A. The Fossil Fuels '317 B. Resources of Copper 322 . Section III Refer ccs 325 Section IV References A. 332 ANNEX I: GLOSSARY OF RESOURCE TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS -334 .ANNEX II: LIST OF CONFEREES, GUESTS AND OBSERVERS 338 ANNEX III: TABLE OF CONTENTS OF APPENDICES 346 NATIONAL ACADEMY. OF SCIENCES- NATIONALRESEARCH,C06NCIL COMMISSION ON NATURAL RESOURCES COMMITTEE ON1-MINERAL RESOURCESAND'THE ENVIRONMENT Chairman: Brian J. Skinner Department, of Geology V-Geophysics Yale University Co-Chairman: Richard R. Doell , ,U.S. Geological Survey Branch of Western Environmental Geology. Prior Chairman: Preston Cloud Department of Geological Sciences University of California
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