A Study of Present and Future Interurban Transportation Emissions in British Columbia, Canada, Relative to Its Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act of 2007

OFF TRACK TO 2050?: A STUDY OF PRESENT AND FUTURE INTERURBAN TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA, RELATIVE TO ITS GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION TARGETS ACT OF 2007 by Moritz Alexander Schare B.A., University of Northern British Columbia, 2008 M.A., University of Northern British Columbia, 2012 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA FEBRUARY 2016 © Moritz Alexander Schare, 2016 ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from transportation contribute to anthropogenic climate change and are expected to increase significantly in the future. CO2 emission inventories exist for various transportation modes at the global scale, but are rare at the subnational scale and even rarer for interurban (versus urban) transportation. In this dissertation, I present a detailed analysis of CO2 emissions and emission factors for interurban transportation for the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, and an analysis of a wide variety of emission scenarios for BC’s interurban transportation system, comparing modelled emissions to the 2020 and 2050 greenhouse gas reduction targets set by the province’s 2007 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act. Nine modes of transportation were included: passenger (private vehicles, ferries, aviation, intercity buses, trains) and freight (trucking, marine, rail, aviation). Annual CO2 emissions from BC interurban transportation were approximately 11.2 Mt CO2 in 2013, of which freight trucking was the greatest contributor with 48.5% of total CO2 emissions. The second largest contributor was private vehicles (17.1% of total CO2 emissions), while the third largest contributor was marine freight (16.8% of total CO2 emissions). Of 106 scenarios modelling future changes to the interurban transportation system, only 15 were able to meet BC’s 2050 emission reduction target, and only two were able to meet both the 2020 and 2050 targets (assuming interurban transportation had to meet the same emission reductions as prescribed for the economy as a whole). Only scenarios with the highest reduction rates were able to meet the reduction targets, and with every passing year, meeting them becomes more challenging. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. ii LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................ vii GLOSSARY .......................................................................................................................... viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 1 1.1 Overview ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research questions .................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Methodology ............................................................................................................. 7 1.4 Major research findings ............................................................................................ 9 1.4.1 Introduction to answers to Research Question 1 ................................................... 9 1.4.2 Introduction to answers to Research Question 2 ................................................. 11 1.5 Value of Research ................................................................................................... 12 1.6 Introduction to Chapters ......................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 2: TRANSPORTATION GREENHOUSE GAS MODELLING: A LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 15 2.2 Review of the literature on transportation GHG modelling .................................... 16 2.2.1 Types of transportation GHG models ................................................................. 16 2.2.2 Scale of transportation GHG model application and modes covered ................. 17 2.2.3 Literature on costing of transportation emission reductions ............................... 31 2.2.4 Summary of literature on transportation GHG emissions and cost modelling ... 33 2.3 Review of the literature on BC transportation GHG emissions .............................. 34 2.4 Meeting research needs and filling knowledge gaps .............................................. 36 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................... 39 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 39 3.2 Present-day emissions of passenger transportation methodology .......................... 39 3.2.1 Private vehicle methodology ............................................................................... 40 3.2.2 Ferry methodology .............................................................................................. 50 3.2.3 Passenger aviation methodology ......................................................................... 57 3.2.4 Bus methodology ................................................................................................ 67 3.2.5 Passenger train methodology .............................................................................. 69 3.3 Present-day emissions of freight transportation methodology ................................ 71 3.3.1 Freight trucking methodology ............................................................................. 72 iii 3.3.2 Marine freight methodology ............................................................................... 79 3.3.3 Rail freight methodology .................................................................................... 81 3.3.4 Aviation freight methodology ............................................................................. 83 3.3.5 Data uncertainty assessment ............................................................................... 85 3.4 Future emission scenario methodology .................................................................. 87 3.4.1 Future emission scenario component of SMITE ................................................ 87 3.4.2 Choosing scenarios to model .............................................................................. 93 CHAPTER 4: INVENTORY OF BC’S INTERURBAN TRANSPORTATION CO2 EMISSIONS AND EMISSION FACTORS ........................................................................... 94 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 94 4.2 Passenger transportation within BC ........................................................................ 95 4.2.1 Private vehicles ................................................................................................... 95 4.2.2 Ferries ............................................................................................................... 108 4.2.3 Passenger aviation ............................................................................................. 119 4.2.4 Long-distance bus ............................................................................................. 132 4.2.5 Passenger trains ................................................................................................. 136 4.3 Freight transportation within BC .......................................................................... 138 4.3.1 Freight trucking ................................................................................................. 138 4.3.2 Marine freight ................................................................................................... 151 4.3.3 Freight trains ..................................................................................................... 153 4.3.4 Aviation freight ................................................................................................. 154 4.4 Comparison of modelling results to results from the literature ............................ 158 4.5 Summary ............................................................................................................... 162 CHAPTER 5: FUTURE EMISSION SCENARIOS ........................................................ 169 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 169 5.2 Scenarios that do not meet 2020 or 2050 emission reduction targets ................... 173 5.2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 173 5.2.2 Discussion of scenarios ..................................................................................... 179 5.3 Scenarios that meet 2050, but not 2020, emission reduction targets .................... 179 5.3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................

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