A Study of Present and Future Interurban Transportation Emissions in British Columbia, Canada, Relative to Its Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act of 2007
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OFF TRACK TO 2050?: A STUDY OF PRESENT AND FUTURE INTERURBAN TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA, RELATIVE TO ITS GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION TARGETS ACT OF 2007 by Moritz Alexander Schare B.A., University of Northern British Columbia, 2008 M.A., University of Northern British Columbia, 2012 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA FEBRUARY 2016 © Moritz Alexander Schare, 2016 originating from sources in a defined category, such as transportation, in a given geographical area (for example, global or national or local) over a given time span (the typical time frame is one year). An inventory usually also contains data to calculate the emissions. In addition, an inventory can include other emissions-related information or calculations such as emission factors (the amount of the pollutant emitted per unit activity). The objective of the research in this dissertation was to develop an emissions inventory for the transportation sector in British Columbia (BC) that could be used to answer various policy-related questions about BC's present-day and future transportation emissions. There are two distinct types of transportation emissions inventories: top-down and bottom-up. Top-down inventories are based on large-scale, overarching ('top level') data, such as total fuel sales for a given jurisdiction, that are used to calculate emissions which are then allocated to the lower levels in some manner within the jurisdiction. Bottom-up inventories work in the opposite direction, so to speak. They start with small-scale, on-the- ground (' bottom level ' ) data, such as fuel sales at each sales outlet within a jurisdiction, that are used to calculate emissions which are then summed up in some manner for the jurisdiction. My original intent for my dissertation research was to develop an entirely bottom-up emissions inventory for BC; however, because of the lack of fine-scale data for some of the modes of transportation considered, a top-down approach was also used. There is value in compiling detailed, bottom-up inventories at local levels, such as the province of BC. They can, for example, provide policymakers with comprehensive information for making decisions. Despite their seeming advantages, there seem to be few detailed, multi-modal, bottom-up GHG emissions inventories of transportation systems at the local level. This may be because bottom-up inventories are difficult to compile and because 2 there are few direct negative impacts of the major greenhouse gas, CO2, at the local level as there are for air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides. However, high resolution GHG inventories at the local level may be of distinct benefit to policymakers in making local decisions regarding GHG emission reductions; for example, in channeling money for infrastructure into light rail instead of road building. For this reason, I decided to construct (as nearly as possible) a 'pure' bottom-up transportation emissions inventory for BC that may prove beneficial to BC policymakers. Transportation systems, especially for ' large' local regions such as BC, can be divided into urban and interurban components. Urban transportation refers to transportation within cities and communities, while interurban transportation refers to transportation between cities and communities. For the purposes of inventorying and policymaking, it is valuable to disaggregate these two components because the nature of transportation can differ significantly between them. For instance, commuting is often a large part of urban transportation but less so for interurban transportation. Also, certain modes, such as air travel, are generally not applicable within an urban area (i.e., one does not generally fly between two destinations within a city). In addition, some policy approaches that can be used to reduce urban transportation emissions, such as encouraging the use of public transit or the creation of bike lanes, are generally not applicable for interurban transportation. Thus, while both urban and interurban transportation are important components of the transportation system, they are distinct and often require distinct policy approaches for emission reductions. My research focuses solely on interurban transportation. Analyzing interurban transportation GHG emissions by itself can facilitate policymaking that is tailored specifically to the unique challenges and requirements of this component of the 3 transportation system. While scholarly work has been done on local transportation GHG emissions, stand-alone treatment of interurban transportation GHG emissions has so far received little attention. The jurisdiction chosen for my research on interurban transportation was the subnational level, specifically, British Columbia, Canada. There were two main reasons for choosing this location. First, BC is a very large ' local' jurisdiction. Despite being only a province, it is several times larger than many countries, such as Great Britain and Japan (BCRobyn 2013). BC has a comparatively small population of approximately 4.5-million residents (BC Stats 2013), of which approximately three million live in the Greater Vancouver and southern Vancouver Island areas in the southwest of the province. The remaining population is spread over the rest of the province. This means that interurban transportation of passengers and freight within the province is significant and, based on distances that have to be covered, generates significant emissions. A second justification for focusing my research on BC is that the province in 2007 passed the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act, legislating highly ambitious GHG reduction goals-reducing emissions 33 % below 2007 levels by 2020, and reducing emissions 80% below 2007 levels by 2050 (Parliament of British Columbia 2007). To achieve this goal and to motivate societal change, the province implemented a carbon tax in 2008 (British Columbia Ministry of Finance 2008). Despite the ambitious GHG reduction targets set by the province, and despite the fact that transportation-related GHG emissions in BC are substantial, there has been little or no indication of what measures should or could be taken to allow transportation to significantly reduce its emissions. All components need to be examined both individually and collectively in order to determine what changes can be made 4 • to BC' s transportation system to reduce emissions. My research is designed to provide policymakers with information on current BC interurban transportation emissions and on changes to interurban transportation that can be made to help the province to achieve its GHG reduction targets. 1 In Canada, total GHG emissions have increased from 613 Mt C02e in 1990 to 726 Mt C02e in 2013 (Environment Canada 2015a), an increase of 18%. In the same timeframe, Canadian transportation emissions increased from 130 to 170 Mt C02e (Environment Canada 2015b ), an increase of 31 %, and thus almost twice the rate of overall emissions. In BC, total GHG emissions have increased from 51.9 Mt C02e in 1990 to 64.0 Mt C02e in 2013 (British Columbia Ministry of Environment 2012), an increase of 11 %. Emissions from transportation increased from 18.6 Mt C02e in 1990 to 23.3 Mt C02e in 2012 (British Columbia Ministry of Environment 2012), an increase of 25% and thus more than twice as fast as overall emissions. Transportation in BC accounts for 38% of all fossil-fuel based GHG emissions (British Columbia Ministry of Environment 2012). They are 65% higher than the global average and 27% higher than the developed country average. Looking to the future, transportation is expected to be one of the fastest-growing sectors in BC (Vancouver Public Library 2015). 1.2 Research questions The research contained in this dissertation was guided by the following two questions: 1 C02e = CO2 equivalent. The unit C02e is used to provide a common or equivalent unit of measure for the different warming effects of different GHGs. It represents the amount of CO2 that would have the same relative warming effect as the GHGs actually emitted (CO2 Australia Limited 2009). 5 (I) What are the present-day total CO2 emissions and emission factors of interurban passenger and freight transportation in BC? In my research, the CO2 emissions of individual transportation modes comprising the BC interurban transportation system were calculated, from which were derived the total emissions of the BC interurban transportation system. Calculations included only those emissions directly associated with the operation of the vehicle ("tail-pipe emissions"), and not those associated with the production of fuel, or other environmental impacts such as radiative forcing or the emission of other pollutants and GHGs. In addition, emission factors (EFs) were calculated for each mode of interurban transformation considered for the year 2013, the base year for this research. An emission factor expresses the emissions per unit activity; in this case, the emissions to transport one passenger or one unit of freight over one unit of distance. For my research, emissions and emission factors were calculated for CO2, instead of C02e, because existing data for some modes did not allow calculating C02e emissions. Thus, this research analyzes not all GHG emissions associated with transportation but rather just the subcategory of CO2, which, however, makes up the vast majority (- 99%) of transportation GHG emissions.