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Sunset Strip Australian Market Trading Day Wrap 15 February 2017 SUNSET STRIP ***SALES COMMENTARY > Blue Ocean Equities Pty Ltd and associates may hold shares in the stocks mentioned in this email and this position may change at any time without notice*** INVESTMENT MOTTO: “Life is all about cycles. You evolve with the cycle or it runs over you.” MARKET SNAPSHOT AND INTRADAY S&P 200 CHART COUNTRY LAST % CHANGE COM/CURR/YIELD LAST % CHANGE NZ 7180.03 0.41 SPTGLD 1226.00 -0.20 AUSTRALIA 5809.10 0.94 AUDUSD 0.7674 0.14 JAPAN 19458.93 1.14 NZDAUD 0.9352 -0.04 SOUTH KOREA 2083.80 0.44 GBPAUD 1.6247 -0.14 SINGAPORE 0.00 0.00 EURAUD 1.3788 -0.13 CHINA 3234.07 0.50 EURUSD 1.0581 0.01 HONG KONG 24036.70 1.41 USDJPY 114.3840 0.10 FRANCE 4895.82 0.16 DXY 101.22 0.00 UK 7268.56 -0.14 US-DOWJON 20504.41 0.45 US BOND10 2.4771 1.85 US-NASDAQ 5782.57 0.32 US BOND30 3.0717 1.41 US-SP500 2337.58 0.40 AUS BOND10 2.7885 1.86 CHART OF THE DAY: US 10 Year Bond Yield > Decade long down trend is broken and the next level up is 3%. Geopolitical unrest, global trade worries, protectionism, US tax cut stimulus and recovering US economy will continue to support higher US interest rates in 2017. US Fed update overnight confirms the view that we are going to get market expected two rate rises with potential of more in 2017. Probability of rate rise in March FOMC meeting continues to climb….now at 36%. The rising US yields will drag Aussie yields higher as Australia needs to attract capital and deliver premium yield to remain competitive. USBON.IR@IR: 11:26:03: 0.0248 MA (USBON.IR@IR): 11:26:03: 52 0.0191, 26 0.0212, 13 0.0245 0.051 0.048 0.045 0.042 0.039 0.036 0.033 0.03 0.027 0.024 0.021 0.018 0.015 RSI (100.000000): 11:26:03: 14 65.1415 80 60 40 20 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 MARKET COMMENTARY: 1. Local market had a cracker day on the back of the banks as US rate cycle optimism moved higher after Fed chair talked it up. 2. Local market index starting to look stretched once again despite pricing in the PE premium for yield. 1 Technically the market is making the double top….i.e. Dec high just above 5800. The two key sectors are Page Mathan Somasundaram > [email protected] Sales Commentary Alex Balzuhn > [email protected] Australian Market Trading Day Wrap 15 February 2017 priced on US rate cycle and China commodity prices. The commodity prices are likely to remain robust even with a pullback while the US interest rate cycle unlikely to deliver substantial growth for Banks as RBA sits on its hands. 3. US Fed updates are in play for the next month (1) Chair Janet Yellen continues her Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress tonight (2) Minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting will be released on the 22nd (3) FOMC’s next meeting on 14/15th March. 4. China inflation continues its move back up while steel stockpile starts to ask questions on Iron Ore and Coal demand remaining at current levels. 5. US economy got more ticks from Fed chair Yellen while corporate capex outlook remains weak and raises questions about future growth. 6. US politics ran into risk territory with resignations and court challenges. 7. Market optimism is reaching far for growth…Apple is starting to price in potential Augmented Reality feature into the next iPhone in late 2017. 8. US rate cycle is getting pushed up after Fed chair update…that will push up USD as well as drag all global yields higher. 9. Japanese economy continues to struggle with demographic issues in the labor market… 10. Chinese middle class needs are changing… INTERESTING MOVES OF THE DAY: (1) BLD (+6%) on solid result showing growth in US and Asia (2) CPU (+5%) on strong constant currency growth and US rate cycle (3) TWE (+4%) on new substantial shareholder (4) DMP (-14%) on slowing sales momentum and franchise issues despite outlook upgrade (5) PRY (-12%) on weak surprise result on regulatory uncertainty 2 (6) IFL (-8%) on weak result despite strong markets Page Mathan Somasundaram > [email protected] Sales Commentary Alex Balzuhn > [email protected] Australian Market Trading Day Wrap 15 February 2017 TOSH’S TIPS: Lithium Power (LPI, N/R, +3.95%) has just confirmed new high grade lithium brine discovery to 354m! This changes LPI from a high grade small resource to a high grade large resource in my opinion… This is now a company that sits at the base of the cost curve, has one of the highest grades and a growing resource… New Chairman Dave Hannon also a great addition to the team… Resource update to come will be a +VE catalyst for LPI… Elders (ELD, BUY, +0.49%) Australia's total winter crop production likely rose 49% in the year to Mar. 31, 2017, to 58.9 million metric tons due to higher yields, says the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences in its quarterly outlook published Tuesday. Acting Abares Executive Director Peter Gooday says this estimate represents a 12% upward revision to the December 2016 forecast. More volume is a good thing for farmers and for the companies that supply them…. +VE Elders… We currently forecast $60m EBIT for ELD but who is to say with current conditions that they won’t hit the top end of their range of $55 - $65m which would see the stock worth $5.50+ 3 Page Mathan Somasundaram > [email protected] Sales Commentary Alex Balzuhn > [email protected] Australian Market Trading Day Wrap 15 February 2017 Rhipe (RHP, BUY, +8.89%) is a stock whose share price confuses me, off 50% since they last reported. I look at this business in a very simple manner. Microsoft, amongst other cloud providers, continues to say that one of their key growth drivers is their cloud business… Rhipe has a market leading cloud licensing channel in South East Asia (SEA) with the major global software vendors. The growing high quality earnings stream has reached the tipping point of profitability and strong cash flow generation, with a maiden dividend expected for FY17. We have the company in here on Friday for lunch and I would recommend that you join us to hear this story… http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/microsoft-scott-guthrie-see-blue-sky-in-cloud-offering/news- story/f427610902a9c8a8982a08c1af754802 4 Page Mathan Somasundaram > [email protected] Sales Commentary Alex Balzuhn > [email protected] Australian Market Trading Day Wrap 15 February 2017 China demand for Aussie products (BWX, BUY, -1.42%) (A2M, N/R)… A2 Milk result just out. For those that were worried about Chinese demand for Aussie products (milk, skincare, etc) you can see below that A2’s China sales grew by 348%. Obviously off a low base but a base broadly similar to what BWX would generate selling into China. STOCKS AND SECTORS IN THE MEDIA TODAY: 1. a2 Milk (A2M, -2.48%) > It's a result that will make Bellamy's shareholders wince. New Zealand-based infant formula and milk producer a2 Milk Company reported that first-half profit nearly quadrupled to $NZ39.4 million ($36.8 million) on surging sales in Australia and China. A year ago, interim net profit was just $10.1 million. In fact, the interim profit is more than its entire profit in 2016. Unlike Bellamy's, which has blamed regulatory changes in China for pummelling its sales and profit, a2 said revenue from the Chinese market soared 348 per cent. The company gained market share in Australia and China. A2 promotes its products by highlighting they are free of the a1 protein, which it claims can cause digestion issues for some consumers. Its products only contain the a2 beta casein protein. A2 Australia & New Zealand chief executive Peter Nathan said there was a lack of appreciation for the Chinese infant formula market, which he said was one of the most complex in the world. "If you get it right it is a very rewarding experience," Mr Nathan said. "There are very few success stories." 2. American Stock Transfer and Trust Company > Pacific Equity Partners has pulled the sale of its longest held asset, American Stock Transfer and Trust Company. With interest rates on the way up and bids from interested parties not reflecting PEP's view of the world, it is understood Australia's largest private equity firm pulled the asset from sale two months ago and has decided to retain the company. What that means for the longer term is less certain. PEP bought AST in May 2008 and it has proved to be one of its more challenging investments of recent years. It's big, heavily reliant on financial markets and not something that appeals to a big universe of potential buyers. It's understood PEP has recently told its own investors that it is pretty upbeat about AST's outlook in the post-Trump world of rising interest rates and a management team that it reckons is doing a great job.
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