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China Agriculture to the Year 2000: Prospects and Options - A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY CHINA Agriculture to the Year 2 000 Public Disclosure Authorized Annex 2 to CHINA 9H HD2097 .C462 1985 c.3 International Bank for Public Disclosure Authorized Reconstruction and .thina, agriculture to the year 2000. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized JOINT BANK-FUND LIBRARY 9H H 02097 .C462 1985 c.3 Ch;"liili~·~~~m~~~r · JLC067979 A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY CHINA Agriculture to the Year 2000 Annex 2 to CHINA Long-Term Development Issues and Options The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A Copyright © 1985 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing September 1985 World Bank Country Studies are reports originally prepared for internal use as part of the continuing analysis by the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its developing member countries and of its dialogues with the governments. Some of the reports are published informally with the least possible delay for the use of govern­ ments and the academic, business and financial, and development communities. Thus, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The publication is supplied at a token charge to defray part of the cost of manufacture and distribution. The designations employed, the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or is affiliates concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries or national affiliation. The most recent World Bank publications are described in the annual spring and fall lists; the continuing research program is described in the annual Abstracts of Cu"ent Studies. The latest edition of each is available free of charge from the Publications Sales Unit, Department T; The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from the European Office of the Bank, 66 avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, France. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Main entry under title: China, agriculture to the year 2000. (Annex 2 to China, long-term development issues and options) (A World Bank country study) 1. Agriculture--Economic aspects--China. 2. Agri­ culture and state--China, I. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. II. Series: Annex to China, long-term development issues and options ; 2. III. Series: World Bank country study, HD2097.C462 1985 338.1'0951 85-17914 ISBN 0-8213-0601-4 Preface This report ts one of six annexes to a main report entitled China: Long-Term Development Issues and Options. The complete list of annex volumes is: Volume 1 - China: Issues and Prospects 1n Education Volume 2 - China: Agriculture to the Year 2000 Volume 3 - China: The Energy Sector Volume 4 - China: Economic Model and Projections Volume 5 - China: Economic Structure 1n International Perspective Volume 6 - China: The Transport Sector (Note: Throughout this volume references to Annexes A, B, C and so on refer in that same order to Annex Volumes 1, 2, 3 etc.) The main report and annex volumes were prepared principally by members of an economic mission that visited China twice in 1984, for four weeks in February/March and for five weeks in April/May. In addition to Beijing, the mission went to three provinces: one coastal and relatively high-income (Jiangsu); one inland and average-income (Hubei); and one interior and low-income (Gansu). It received a lot of information, as well as numerous valuable comments and suggestions, from officials and others in these provinces, as well as from those in many central agencies and institutions, including: the State Planning and State Economic Commissions; the Ministries of Finance, Agriculture, Coal, Communications, Education, Foreign Economic Relations and Trade, Labor and Personnel, Petroleum, Railways, Urban and Rural Construction, and Water Resources and Electric Power; the State Statistical Bureau; and various universities and research institutes of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. A series of seminars was organized by the Technical-Economic Research Center under the State Council. The generous and thoughtful assistance of all these people in China contributed greatly to the preparation of the reports. The Bank mission was led by Edwin Lim (mission chief) and Adrian Wood (deputy mission chief), and also consisted of William Byrd (econo­ mist), Mats Hultin (senior education adviser), Erh-Cheng Hwa (senior econo­ mist), Timothy King (senior economist), Jacques Yenny (senior transport econo­ mist}, Umnuay Sae-Hau (research assistant), Betty Ting (interpreter), Luc De Wulf (senior economist, International Monetary Fund), Benjamin King (consul­ tant on statistics), Wouter Tims (consultant on planning and agriculture); and the following teams: Agriculture: J. Goering (team leader, April/May), Tom Wiens (team leader, February/March), Lang-Seng Tay (irrigation specialist), Lo-Chai Chen (fishery consultant) and Fred Bentley (consultant on arid agricul­ ture); Energy: Roberto Bentjerodt (senior economist, coal projects), Weigong Cao (power engineer), Abdel El-Mekkawy (engineer, petroleum proj­ ects), Robert Taylor (energy economist), and Darrel Fallen-Bailey (con­ sultant); D.C. Rao (Assistant Director, Energy Department) led the team in the field; - 111 - Industrial Technology: Gene Tidrick (team leader), Anupam Khanna (indus­ trial economist), Reza Amin (industrial specialist), and Josephine Woo (research assistant); Location and Trade: Ian Porter (team leader), Vernon Henderson (consul­ tant on urbanization), John Sheahan (consultant on industrial location and trade) and Samuel Ho (consultant on rural nonfarm activities). The following also contributed to the preparation of the reports: Wlodzimierz Brus (consultant on socialist economies), Gerhard Pohl (energy and transport), Robert Drysdale (Annex Vol. 1); Helena Ribe, Nikhil Desai (Annex Vol. 3); Shujiro Urata (Annex Vols. 4 and 5); and Lily Uy (Annex Vol. 6). Larry Westphal, Carl Dahlman and Bruce Ross-Larson organized background work on technology. Behrouz Guerami-N, Tejaswi Raparla, and Kong-Yam Tan helped with the multisectoral model, the input-output table and data for international comparisons. Ann Orr, Kenneth Hill, Moshe Syrquin, J.V.S. Sarma, Kenneth Cochran, Chang Hsin, Liu Ying and Cai Jinyong undertook research. Linda Mitchell and Terrice Bassler edited the reports; and Helen Kung assisted in their processing. The reports also benefited from comments of a review panel consisting of Anne 0. Krueger, Luis de Azcarate, Kemal Dervis, Janos Kornai (consultant) and managers of the East Asia and Pacific Regional Office. In addition to the main report and annex volumes, the following background papers have been prepared and are being issued as World Bank Staff Working Papers: 1. "The Asian Experience in Rural Nonagricultural Development and its Relevance for China" 2. "International Experience in Urbanization and its Relevance for China" 3. ''Alternative International Economic Strategies and their Relevance for China" 4. "International Experience in Budgetary Trends during Economic Development and their Relevance for China" 5. "Productivity Growth and Technological Change in Chinese,Industry" 6. "Issues in the Technological Development of China's Electronics Sector" 7. "The Environment for Technological Change in Centrally Planned Economies" 8. "Managing Technology Development: Lessons from the Newly Industrializing Countries" 9. "Growth and Structural Change in Large Low-Income Countries" The main report, other annex volumes and background papers are available from World Bank Publications, P.O. Box 37525, Washington, D.C., 20013 or from World Bank distributors listed on the last page of this volume. Prices will be furnished upon request. - lV - Table of Contents Page No. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..... • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • vi 1. PERFORMANCE SINCE 19 7 9 ........................................... 1 A. Introduction................................................ 1 B. The Changing Policy Environment............................. 1 C. Growth and Productivity..................................... 9 D. Incomes and Consumption..................................... 13 2. FUTURE DEMANDS ON THE SECTOR ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 16 A. Present Consumption Levels ••••••••••••••••••• .............. 17 B. Projections of Consumption to 2000 ••••••••••• .............. 18 3. DETERMINANTS OF FUTURE GROWTH •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 28 A. Land and Water Development.................................. 28 B. Fertilizers and Seeds....................................... 34 C. The Policy Environment...................................... 40 D. Agricultural Support Services............................... SO 4. PROSPECTS FOR MAJOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS •••••••••••••••••••••••• 57 A. Food Crops •••••••.• c •••••••••• 111 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 57 B. Industrial and Specialty Crops •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 64 c. ForestrY•••••••••e•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 70 D. Livestock •.............. ~ .......•......................•.•.• 72 E. Aquatic Products ••••••• 0 0 0 II 0 0 0 0 0 0
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