Forecasting Wildland Fire Behavior: Aids and Guides

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Forecasting Wildland Fire Behavior: Aids and Guides Fire Management today Volume 64 • No. 1 • Winter 2004 FORECASTING WILDLAND FIRE BEHAVIOR: AIDS AND GUIDES United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Editor’s note: This issue of Fire Management Today is the third in a three-part series of reprinted articles related to wildland fire behavior, some of them decades old. Although the articles appear in today’s format, the text is reprinted largely verbatim and therefore reflects the style and usage of the time. We made minor wording changes for clarity and added metric conversions where needed. All illustrations are taken from the original articles. Fire Management Today is published by the Forest Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. The Secretary of Agriculture has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Fire Management Today is for sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, at: Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: 202-512-1800 Fax: 202-512-2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001 Fire Management Today is available on the World Wide Web at <http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/fmt/>. Ann M. Veneman, Secretary April J. Baily U.S. Department of Agriculture General Manager Dale Bosworth, Chief Robert H. “Hutch” Brown, Ph.D. Forest Service Managing Editor Jerry Williams, Director Madelyn Dillon Fire and Aviation Management Editor Carol LoSapio Guest Editor Martin E. Alexander and Dave Thomas Issue Coordinators The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, or marital or family sta­ tus. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call (202) 720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. Disclaimer: The use of trade, firm, or corporation names in this publication is for the information and convenience of the reader. Such use does not constitute an official endorsement of any product or service by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Individual authors are responsible for the technical accuracy of the material presented in Fire Management Today. Fire today Management Volume 64 • No. 1 • Winter 2004 On the Cover: CONTENTS Forecasting Wildland Fire Behavior: Aids, Guides, and Knowledge-Based Protocols . 4 M.E. Alexander and D.A. Thomas Forest Fires and Sea Breezes. 12 G.L. Hayes Fundamentals of Fire Behavior . 15 H.T. Gisborne Vertical Wind Currents and Fire Behavior. 24 John S. Crosby Warning Signs for Fire Fighters . 27 A.A. Brown Recognizing Weather Conditions That Affect Forest Fire Behavior . 29 Owen P. Cramer Meteorological Problems Associated With Mass Fires . 34 Aids and guides from the past, DeVer Colson some illustrated here, can Some Principles of Combustion and Their Significance in Forest Fire Behavior . 37 help improve the fire behavior George M. Byram forecasting capabilities needed Vortex Turbulence—Its Effect on Fire Behavior. 45 today in both fire use and fire James B. Davis and Craig C. Chandler The Concept of Fire Environment . 49 suppression. See the articles C.M. Countryman in this issue for descriptions. Get the Most From Your Windspeed Observation. 53 John S. Crosby and Craig C. Chandler Atmospheric Stability Forecast and Fire Control . 56 Rollo T. Davis Downbursts and Wildland Fires: A Dangerous Combination . 59 Donald A. Haines Estimating Slope for Predicting Fire Behavior . 62 Patricia L. Andrews Air Tanker Vortex Turbulence—Revisited . 64 Donald A. Haines A Trend Analysis of Fireline “Watch Out” Situations in Seven Fire-Suppression Fatality Accidents . 66 Gene A. Morse The FIRE 21 symbol (shown below and on the LCES—A Key to Safety in the Wildland Fire Environment . 70 cover) stands for the safe and effective use of Paul Gleason wildland fire, now and throughout the 21st How IC’s Can Get Maximum Use of Weather Information . 72 century. Its shape represents the fire triangle Christopher J. Cuoco and James K. Barnett (oxygen, heat, and fuel). The three outer red triangles represent the basic functions of Beyond the Safey Zone: Creating a Margin of Safety . 78 wildland fire organizations (planning, operations, Mark Beighley and aviation management), and the three critical Firefighter Safety Zones: How Big Is Big Enough? . 82 aspects of wildland fire management (prevention, Bret W. Butler and Jack D. Cohen suppression, and prescription). The black interior represents land affected by fire; the emerging Safety Alert: Watch Out for Aircraft Turbulence! . 86 green points symbolize the growth, restoration, Billy Bennett and sustainability associated with fire-adapted The Consumption Strategy: Increasing Safety During Mopup . 88 ecosystems. The flame represents fire itself as an Tom Leuschen and Ken Frederick ever-present force in nature. For more informa­ tion on FIRE 21 and the science, research, and Author Index—Volume 63 . 94 innovative thinking behind it, contact Mike Apicello, National Interagency Fire Center, Subject Index—Volume 63 . 95 208-387-5460. SHORT FEATURES Websites on Fire . 28 The Blowup Fire and Firefighter Safety. 33 Wildland Fire Research’s Raison D’etre . 92 Guidelines for Contributors . 93 Firefighter and public safety is Photo Contest Announcement . 98 First of Its Kind: A Historical Perspective on our first priority. Wildland Fire Behavior Training . 99 Volume 64 • No. 1 • Winter 2004 3 FORECASTING WILDLAND FIRE BEHAVIOR: AIDS, GUIDES, AND KNOWLEDGE-BASED PROTOCOLS M.E. Alexander and D.A. Thomas an wildland fire behavior really be predicted? That depends on By systematically reflecting upon our fire behavior C how accurate you expect the forecasts and the tools that helped us prepare prediction to be. The minute-by­ them, we become the masters of fire behavior minute movement of a fire will probably never be predictable—cer­ models and not their servants. tainly not from weather conditions forecasted many hours before the This issue is devoted to aids, fire. Nevertheless, practice and The Practice of guides, and knowledge-based proto­ experienced judgment in assessing Predicting Wildland cols involved in predicting wildland the fire environment, coupled with Fire Behavior fire behavior for safe and effective a systematic method of calculating More than 50 years ago, Barrows fire suppression (Alexander 2000). fire behavior, yield surprisingly (1951) outlined the basic concepts It includes 21 articles published good results (Rothermel 1983). of predicting or forecasting wild- from 1947 to 1998. A recent article land fire behavior that are still very by Weick (2002) that emphasizes This is the third and final special valid today (see the excerpt on the importance of human factors in issue of Fire Management Today in pages 6–7). As figure 1 shows, the the field of fire behavior forecasting a series of issues devoted to the process of judging fire behavior can could have easily been included. subject of wildland fire behavior. be divided into five simple steps: The first two issues contained 36 articles dealing with wildland fire behavior case studies and analyses published in Fire Management Today and its predecessors between 1937 and 2000. These two issues contained lead articles on various aspects of those subjects (Alexander and Thomas 2003a, 2003b). Not included in these two issues are two recent articles on fire behavior published in Fire Management Today (Brown 2002; Cornwall 2003). Marty Alexander is a senior fire behavior research officer with the Canadian Forest Service at the Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta; and Dave Thomas is the regional fuels specialist for the USDA Figure 1—Judging fire behavior requires systematic analysis of many factors Forest Service, Intermountain Region, (from Barrows 1951). Ogden, UT. Fire Management Today 4 1. Basic knowledge. The founda- We recommend that fire behavior analysts adopt tion for judging probable fire the framework of the After Action Review, as behavior must rest on basic knowledge of the principles of described on the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned combustion: What is necessary Center Website. for combustion to occur? What causes the rate of combustion to increase or decrease? How may ior predictions to actual fire behav­ by putting their fire behavior fore­ combustion be reduced or ior. This is the only way one can casts through a reflective scrutiny stopped? truly meet Barrows’ (1951) advice based on four basic questions: 2. Forest knowledge. Three basic to “evaluate the combined effects of factors in a forest area—weather, all significant factors influencing 1. What did your fire behavior fore­ topography, and fuels—are fire behavior.” cast say would happen? important indicators of fire 2. What actually happened? behavior. Conscious reflection, not as an 3. Why did the fire behavior aid, 3. Aids and guides. Several aids afterthought but as a normal rou­ guide, or protocol predict accu­ and guides are available to assist tine in the day-to-day business of rately (or inaccurately)? in evaluating weather, topogra­ fire behavior forecasting, involves a 4. Finally (and most importantly), phy, and fuels. highly professional method of ques­ if you had to make this forecast 4. Estimate of situation. The prob­ tioning whether our fire behavior again, what would you do differ­ abilities for various patterns of aids, guides, and protocols are ently? How would you change fire behavior are systematically working. By systematically reflect­ the way you used the aid, guide, explored through an estimate of ing upon our fire behavior forecasts protocol, or model/system in this the situation based upon the and the tools that helped us pre­ different approach? combined effects of weather, pare them, we become the masters fuels, and topography.
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