Section 309 Assessment and Strategy FY 2021-2025
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Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs. -
Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
National Hurricane Operations Plan
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OFFICE OF THE FEDERAL COORDINATOR FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH National Hurricane Operations Plan FCM-P12-2015 Washington, DC May 2015 THE INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH (ICMSSR) MR. DAVID McCARREN, CHAIR MR. PAUL FONTAINE Acting Federal Coordinator Federal Aviation Administration Department of Transportation MR. MARK BRUSBERG Department of Agriculture DR. JONATHAN M. BERKSON United States Coast Guard DR. LOUIS UCCELLINI Department of Homeland Security Department of Commerce DR. DAVID R. REIDMILLER MR. SCOTT LIVEZEY Department of State United States Navy Department of Defense DR. ROHIT MATHUR Environmental Protection Agency MR. RALPH STOFFLER United States Air Force DR. EDWARD CONNER Department of Defense Federal Emergency Management Agency Department of Homeland Security MR. RICKEY PETTY Department of Energy DR. RAMESH KAKAR National Aeronautics and Space MR. JOEL WALL Administration Science and Technology Directorate Department of Homeland Security DR. PAUL B. SHEPSON National Science Foundation MR. JOHN VIMONT Department of the Interior MR. DONALD E. EICK National Transportation Safety Board MR. MARK KEHRLI Federal Highway Administration MR. SCOTT FLANDERS Department of Transportation U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission MR. MICHAEL C. CLARK Office of Management and Budget MR. MICHAEL BONADONNA, Secretariat Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research Cover Image NOAA GOES-13, 15 October 2014; Hurricane Gonzalo; Credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory FEDERAL COORDINATOR FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH 1325 East-West Highway, Suite 7130 Silver Spring, Maryland 20910 301-628-0112 http://www.ofcm.gov/ NATIONAL HURRICANE OPERATIONS PLAN http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/15/nhop15.htm FCM-P12-2015 Washington, D.C. -
HAWAII MARINE Voluntary Payment for Delivery to MCAS Housing /8I Per Four Kruk (Tented
HAWAII MARINE Voluntary payment for delivery to MCAS housing /8I per four Kruk (tented. VOL. 11 NO. 29 KANEOHE HAY. HAWAII. JULY 21, 1982 TWENTY PAGES Old vehicle decals expire The new Department of Defense identification card (or dependent/ car itself is destroyed. vehicle decals aren't new anymore, but civilian employee card), registration, When a service member transfers some people still haven't taken the proof of no-fault insurance, driver's from one duty station to another, the time to get one. license and safety inspection sticker. only part of the decale that changes And they may be in for a surprise. Vehicles with out -of-state plates will be the small tab directly below the The old station decals expire July 26 must be registered with the State of decal. This tab is color-coded to show and cars without a new decal won't be Hawaii. Motorcyclists will also have the status of the owner. Blue is for allowed on the air station and the to have a motorcycle safety course officers, red for enlisted and green for vehicles parked here without the DOD certificate from here -others won't be civilians. sticker will be tagged. accepted. All documents must be The tab also indicates that issuing Once tagged, vehicle owners will current to be acceptable. installation and should be returned to have 24 hours to register with Pass A person won't be able to count duty that installation's vehicle registration and Registration at the main gate (H- stations anymore by the number of office when transferring. -
Chapter 2.1.3, Has Both Unique and Common Features That Relate to TC Internal Structure, Motion, Forecast Difficulty, Frequency, Intensity, Energy, Intensity, Etc
Chapter Two Charles J. Neumann USNR (Retired) U, S. National Hurricane Center Science Applications International Corporation 2. A Global Tropical Cyclone Climatology 2.1 Introduction and purpose Globally, seven tropical cyclone (TC) basins, four in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and three in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) can be identified (see Table 1.1). Collectively, these basins annually observe approximately eighty to ninety TCs with maximum winds 63 km h-1 (34 kts). On the average, over half of these TCs (56%) reach or surpass the hurricane/ typhoon/ cyclone surface wind threshold of 118 km h-1 (64 kts). Basin TC activity shows wide variation, the most active being the western North Pacific, with about 30% of the global total, while the North Indian is the least active with about 6%. (These data are based on 1-minute wind averaging. For comparable figures based on 10-minute averaging, see Table 2.6.) Table 2.1. Recommended intensity terminology for WMO groups. Some Panel Countries use somewhat different terminology (WMO 2008b). Western N. Pacific terminology used by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is also shown. Over the years, many countries subject to these TC events have nurtured the development of government, military, religious and other private groups to study TC structure, to predict future motion/intensity and to mitigate TC effects. As would be expected, these mostly independent efforts have evolved into many different TC related global practices. These would include different observational and forecast procedures, TC terminology, documentation, wind measurement, formats, units of measurement, dissemination, wind/ pressure relationships, etc. Coupled with data uncertainties, these differences confound the task of preparing a global climatology. -
Economic Losses from Tropical Cyclones in the USA – an Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change and Socio-Economic Effects
Economic losses from tropical cyclones in the USA – An assessment of the impact of climate change and socio-economic effects vorgelegt von Silvio Schmidt Von der Fakultät VII – Wirtschaft und Management der Technischen Universität Berlin zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaft (Dr. rer. oec.) genehmigte Dissertation Promotionsausschuss: Vorsitzender: Prof. Dr. Christian von Hirschhausen Berichter: Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert Prof. Dr. Georg Meran Tag der wissenschaftlichen Aussprache: 19. Mai 2010 Berlin 2010 D83 Acknowledgements Many people deserve thanks and appreciation for this thesis, without their support and help, this work would not have been possible. Thanks to Laurens Bouwer, Oliver Büsse, Joel Gratz, Marlen Kube, Clau- dia Laube, Petra Löw, Peter Miesen, Brigitte Miksch, Roger Pielke Jr., Frank Oberholzner, Robert Sattler, Boris Siliverstovs, Michael Sonnenholzner and Angelika Wirtz for their useful comments and sugges- tions, engaging discussions and for providing me with the necessary data and with support for the data processing. Special thanks to Prof. Claudia Kemfert for her guidance during my studies, for her supporting feedback on various drafts of this paper and for her advice and motivation. Also, special thanks to Prof. Peter Höppe who was always available as a motivating discussion partner, for his advice and for arranging a funding for research activities. He also made it possible for me to have access to Munich Re’s NatCatSERVICE® database. I am also very grateful to Eberhard Faust who shared his profound knowledge on extreme weather events and the related insurance requirements with me. His support and advice contributed immensely to the completion of this thesis. -
Extension of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Eastern and Central North Pacific
NPS ARCHIVE 1997.12 BOOTHE, M. NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS EXTENSION OF THE SYTEMATIC APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC by Mark A. Boothe December, 1997 Thesis Co-Advisors: Russell L.Elsberry Lester E. Carr III Thesis B71245 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY NAVAl OSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA 93943-5101 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching casting data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, I'aperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1 . AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 1997. Master's Thesis TITLE AND SUBTITLE EXTENSION OF THE SYSTEMATIC 5. FUNDING NUMBERS APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC 6. AUTHOR(S) Mark A. Boothe 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDR£SS(ES) PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESSEES) 10. SPONSORING/MONTTORIN G AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
Relation Between Tropical Easterly Waves, Convection, and Tropical Cyclogenesis: a Lagrangian Perspective
AUGUST 2013 L E P P E R T E T A L . 2649 Relation between Tropical Easterly Waves, Convection, and Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Lagrangian Perspective KENNETH D. LEPPERT II AND DANIEL J. CECIL* University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, Alabama, WALTER A. PETERSEN NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia (Manuscript received 2 August 2012, in final form 3 January 2013) ABSTRACT In this study, a wave-following Lagrangian framework was used to examine the evolution of tropical easterly wave structure, circulation, and convection in the days leading up to and including tropical cyclo- genesis in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins. After easterly waves were separated into northerly, southerly, trough, and ridge phases using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 700-hPa meridional wind, waves that developed a tropical cyclone [de- veloping waves (DWs)] and waves that never developed a cyclone [nondeveloping waves (NDWs)] were identified. Day zero (D0) was defined as the day on which a tropical depression was identified for DWs or the day the waves achieved maximum 850-hPa vorticity for NDWs. Both waves types were then traced from five days prior to D0 (D 2 5) through one day after D0. Results suggest that as genesis is approached for DWs, the coverage by convection and cold cloudiness (e.g., fractional coverage by infrared brightness temperatures #240 K) increases, while convective intensity (e.g., lightning flash rate) decreases. Therefore, the coverage by convection appears to be more important than the intensity of convection for tropical cyclogenesis. -
62Nd Book Cover.Cdr:Coreldraw
62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Theme: Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research: Priorities for the Future AGENDA Monday, March 3, 2008 9:00 AM Early Registration (9:00 AM-12:30 PM) Opening Session 12:30 PM Conference Opening Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology 12:35 PM Introduction of Mayor Mr. Howard Chapman Executive Director, Charleston Area Regional Transportation Authority 12:40 PM Welcome/Opening Remarks The Honorable Joseph P. Riley, Jr. Mayor, Charleston, South Carolina 12:55 PM Introductory Comments Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology 1:15 PM Keynote Address Ms. Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere (NOAA) 1:30 PM Panel Introduction Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology 1:35 PM Panel: Priorities for Tropical Cyclone Research: A Senior Leader Perspective Moderator: Dr. Elbert W. (Joe) Friday, Professor Emeritus, University of Oklahoma Panelists: Dr. Alexander “Sandy” MacDonald, Deputy Assistant Administrator for NOAA Research Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes Mr. Robert Winokur, Technical Director, Office of the Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy Dr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director for Research, Earth Science Division, NASA Dr. Fred Lewis, Air Force Director of Weather RDML (sel) David Titley, Commander, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command Dr. John “Jack” Hayes, Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, NOAA 3:00 PM Introduction of Federal Agency Lead Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Representatives Federal Coordinator for Meteorology 3:15 PM Afternoon Coffee/Soda Break (3:15-3:45 PM) 1 Session 1 Coordinator: Mr. Mark Welshinger (OFCM) Session 1: The 2007 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review Session Leaders Dr. -
Name Dates Minimum Pressure (Hpa
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWSTM PR-52 2004 Tropical Cyclones Central North Pacific Andy Nash Tim Craig Roy Matsuda Jeffrey Powell Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii February 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS Overview Tropical Depression 01-C Tropical Depression Darby Tropical Storm Estelle Acronyms Overview of the 2004 Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Total activity for the tropical cyclone season was slightly below normal, with three systems occurring within the area of responsibility of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). One tropical cyclone (01- C) developed within the central Pacific and the other two, Darby and Estelle, moved into the area from the eastern Pacific. Estelle was the strongest of the three systems and the only one of tropical storm intensity. There were no deaths recorded or property damage reported in the central North Pacific due to these three tropical cyclones. Table 1. List of Tropical Cyclones ** denotes information for only that portion of the storm's lifetime in the central north Pacific (CPHC's area of responsibility). Minimum Maximum Sustained Name Dates Pressure (hPa) Winds (kt) Tropical July 5-6 1007 25 Depression 01-C Tropical August 1 ** 1007 ** 25 ** Depression Darby Tropical Storm August 21- 990 ** 60 ** Estelle 25 ** Table 2. Overall Track Verification Table entries are track forecast errors, measured in nautical miles. Values in parentheses indicate the number of forecasts. Values in bold represent guidance forecast errors equal to or less than the official CPHC forecast. -
NCC News August 11, 2019
NCC News August 11, 2019 A Weekly Newsletter of Nu‘uanu Congregational Church Disaster Preparedness We are currently in the midst of the hurricane season (June 1-November 30). Hurricane Dot hit Hawaii in August1959, Hurricane Iwa in November 1982, Hurricane Iniki in September 1992, Hurricane Iselle downgraded to a tropical storm hit in 2014, and Hurricane Lane which also downgraded to a tropical storm hit in 2018. Are you prepared, in the event that Oahu is hit? You should have an emergency kit with 14 days worth of food, water, and other essentials. For more information on how to prepare yourself and your home, go to ready.hawaii.gov (Hawai‘i Emergency Management Agency). NCC, UCC Judd Street and Community Church are planning an all- day training on disaster preparedness for Saturday, September 14 from 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. at UCC Judd Street’s sanctuary (air conditioned). Danny Tengan from HCUCC’s Disaster Ministries will speak on various topics, i.e. active shooter, hurricane, etc. Sign up with Laurie Hamano or Wayne Kodama. A head count is needed to prepare handouts and lunch. UCC Judd Street Ukulele Ensemble Thank you, to the UCC Judd Street Ukulele Ensemble for their special music this morning. The ensemble, under the direction of Diane Koshi, is part of an ukulele class that was offered this summer. Nursery Has a New Facelift Thanks to Carter Kojima and Troop 201 scouts and parents, the Nursery in KK102 has a new look! Carter’s Eagle Scout Project included painting the walls, cabinets, and closet doors.