Living in the Shadow of Mauna Loa by Zahra R. Hirji B.A. Geological Science Brown University, 2009 SUBMITTED TO THE PROGRAM IN COMPARATIVE MEDIA STUDIES/WRITING IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SCIENCE WRITING ARCHNES AT THE *,r ~ urT MASSACHUSETIS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SEPTEMBER 2013 © 2013 Zahra Hirji. All Rights Reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copes of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created Signature of Author: A' i I /1 Program in Writing and Humanistic Studies June A 9, 2013 Certified by: Marcia Bartusiak Professor of the Practice, Graduate Program in Science Writing Thesis Advisor Accepted by: Seth Mnookin Assistant Professor of Science Writing Co-Director, Graduate Program in Science Writing Living in the Shadow of Mauna Loa by Zahra Hirji Submitted to the Program in Comparative Media Studies/Writing on June 9, 2013 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Science Writing ABSTRACT One of Hawaii's most dangerous natural hazards is sitting in plain sight: Mauna Loa volcano. The mighty mountain makes up more than fifty percent of the island and is the largest volcano on Earth. Since 1843, when people started rigorously recording Mauna Loa's eruptive activity, the volcano has produced raging lava flows, billowing sulfuric- rich clouds, and giant ground cracks, as well as triggered earthquakes, landslides, and even tsunamis. While geologists and emergency managers are concerned about and actively preparing for a future eruption, Hawaii's general public is largely ignorant or apathetic to their risk. This thesis explores what a future Mauna Loa eruption may look like in terms of geology, disaster response, and damage. It also identifies and profiles the most threatened Hawaiian communities and industries, as well as explores the factors driving differences in risk perception across various stakeholders on the island. Thesis Supervisor: Marcia Bartusiak Title: Professor of the Practice, Graduate Program in Science Writing 2 Acknowledgements This thesis could not have happened without the substantial editorial and emotional support provided by family, friends, and MIT faculty. First, I want to thank my boyfriend, Max Tuttman, for his extreme patience and encouragement this past year. Similarly, I want to thank my parents, Deborah Rubin and Rafik Hirji, and many friends for their unwavering positive reinforcement. I want to recognize my wordsmithing magician of an advisor, Marcia Bartusiak, for her invaluable feedback, as well as the MIT Graduate Program in Science Writing's administrator, Shannon Larkin, for her kind ear and caffeine-stocked office. Also, many thanks to the people who read different thesis drafts and offered feedback: Alison Bruzek, Aviva Rutkin, Deborah Rubin, Leslie Baehr, Max Tuttman, and Trent Knoss. Thanks to all the sources who offered their time, whether in person, telephone, Skype, or email, including Arnold Rabin, Arthur Sampaga, Bruce Houghton, Christopher Gregg, Darryl Oliveira, David Ropeik, Erika Ronchin, Harry Kim, J. B. Friday, Janet Babb, Jeanine Acia, John Lockwood, Julie Herrick, Kekuhi Kealiikanakaoleohaililani, Ku'ulei Kanahele, Mark Nickum, Matt Patrick, Patricia Missler, Samantha Weaver, Stacey and Phillip Sharkey, Stephanie Donoho, Teri Fabry, Tim Orr, Thomas Wright, Tom Greenwell, William Hanson, and representatives from Royal State Insurance and Bank of Hawaii. I want to give a special thanks to James Kauahikaua for allowing me to camp out at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), in addition to offering his time for a personal interview. A special thanks to Ben Gaddis and Jane Takahashi for assisting me navigate the HVO archives. Finally, I want to give a particular heart-felt thanks to Frank Trusdell for introducing me to the fascinating topic back in July 2010 and for donating so much of his time to this project-without him, this thesis would not have been possible. 3 By Zahra Hirji giant cracks. A plume of sulfuric-rich The largest volcano on Earth is taking a smoke will climb into the sky, like a huge nap. After twenty-nine years and smoke stack. Emanating from the cracks, counting, no one is quite sure when flows, and fountains, heat will flush Hawaii's Mauna Loa volcano will again cheeks from a dozen feet away. A volcanic wake up. But odds are that it will be chorus of splattering, hissing, within our lifetime-sometime crackling, in the next and oozing noises will thunder in the couple of years ears. or decades-and it will be It paints a hellish spectacular. scene, but does it really pose a danger? It all depends on Stretches of hot red lava will fountain whether lava is confined to the up violently, hundreds of feet into the air, mountain's highest levels, where even like a row of glowing geysers. An trees are not invited-or, as scientists and underground molten ocean will unleash, emergency managers fear, migrates where waves of lava pour out of fresh downslope to the realm of people and Zahra Hiri is a science writing graduate student at MIT. She has contributed to the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, Discovery News, EARTH Magazine, and MIT's Scope. Previously, she served as the Kilauea volcano geology intern at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory during the summer of 2010. 4 commerce. eruption in 1950, subdivisions have And it is not an unfounded fear. sprung up like dandelions, including the History warns us that Mauna Loa's world's largest, Hawaiian Ocean View current silence is anomalous. Etched into Estates. And in over sixty years, the the rocky mountainside is a story of number of residents on the entire repetition: Over and over lava flows have southwestern side has climbed from painted the land red. Mauna Loa has 8,ooo to over 18,400. Tourism in the Big erupted thirty-three times since 1843, Island, especially on the western coast, when people started recording such has also skyrocketed in recent decades. events, an average of once every five Many newcomers and visitors are not years. And over the past 3,000 years, the even aware that Mauna Loa is still active, geologic record testifies that the volcano said Trusdell. has erupted an average of every six years. That means even if the next Mauna Loa eruption spares the Big Island Mauna Loa has community, the second, third, or fourth erupted thirty-three eruptions will likely not be so kind. It is just a matter of time. times since 1843, Adding to the threat, Mauna Loa when people started eruptions can occur along different points of the mountain. While most eruptions recording such start at the mountain's very top, the events, an average eruption source, the physical point where ofonce everyfive lava comes spewing out of the ground, can move. Around forty-five percent of years. historical eruption sites have shifted to lower elevations-generally to the Other disasters have likely distracted northeastern or southwestern sides of the residents and visitors alike. Since 1983, mountain. Not a trivial amount. Kilauea volcano has continuously erupted Lying at the foot of the northeastern in the Big Island's southeastern corner, side like a welcome mat is the island's devouring entire neighborhoods. There largest city, Hilo. Despite being the most have been tsunami scares, including two recently threatened population by Mauna in the past two years. Wildfires and floods Loa back in 1984, Hilo residents are are an annual debacle, and over a dozen largely apathetic to their risk, said Frank howling hurricanes have skirted past the Trusdell, a scientist at the Hawaiian island. Also, in 2006, an earthquake of Volcano Observatory and the world's magnitude 6.7 occurred; several houses leading Mauna Loa geologist. Part of the shuddered and collapsed in response. issue is the city's growing population, Time is a hindrance to scientists and which has ballooned by nearly a third emergency managers, too. Few people since the last eruption, from about 35,200 working in these fields today were around to 43,200. In response, development has in 1984, and no one with that expertise is pushed farther up Mauna Loa's slopes. around from 1950. Compared to recent It has been over twice as long since dangers, Mauna Loa's last few eruptions Mauna Loa flows terrorized the are but fading and fuzzy memories. southwestern side. Since that last 5 Yet the risk of a future catastrophic Mauna Loa eruption continues. In fact, the risk builds as more people and buildings pack into known hazardous areas like Hilo and Hawaiian Ocean View Estates. Is Hawaii prepared for another Mauna Loa eruption? And if not, what does it need to do to get there? The first major Hawaiian volcano, named Kure, formed above a deep magma source, called a hot spot, on the sea floor nearly 70 million years ago. As it grew from a hill to a mountain to an island, the ocean plate moved slowly in a northwesterly direction, an average of two to four inches a year. Yet the magma source remained still. As the overlying volcano moved farther away from the source, the eruptions gradually reduced to zero; concurrently, a new volcano formed a few hundred miles away. This cycle In the Hawaiian language, Mauna Loa means repeated dozens of times resulting in the "long mountain." Aptly named, Mauna Loa is Hawaiian archipelago, a string of volcanic the largest of the island's five volcanoes. islands stretching across approximately southeast, composing the fox's nose and 1,700 miles of the Pacific Ocean. mouth, is the island's youngest volcano, The hot spot currently resides Kilauea.