> April 2011
Training Can Be Dangerous
A Realistic Assessment of the Proposed Canadian Mission to Train Afghan National Security Forces
Michael Byers and Stewart Webb About the Authors Michael Byers holds the Canada Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law at the University of British Columbia. From 1996–99 he was a Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University; from 1999–2004 he was Professor of Law and Director of Canadian Studies at Duke University. He is the author of War Law: Understanding International Law and Armed Conflict; Intent for a Nation: What is Canada For?; and Who Owns the Arctic? Understanding Sovereignty Disputes in the North. Stewart Webb is a Research Associate with the Salt Spring Forum who specializes in South Asian geopolitics and nuclear strategy. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Acadia Please make a donation... Help us continue to offer University and a Master’s degree in Security Studies our publications free online. from Aberystwyth University. We make most of our publications available free List of Acronyms on our website. Making a donation or taking out ANA Afghan National Army a membership will help us continue to provide ATO Afghan Theatre of Operations people with access to our ideas and research free ANSF Afghan National Security Forces of charge. You can make a donation or become a (military and police) member on-line at www.policyalternatives.ca. Or CIA Central Intelligence Agency you can contact the National office at 613-563-1341 CN Counter-Narcotics for more information. Suggested donation for this COIN Counter-Insurgency publication: $10 or what you can afford. CT Counter-Terrorism FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas isbn 978-1-926888-59-0 of Pakistan GWOT Global War on Terrorism IED Improvised Explosive Devices This report is available free of charge from the CCPA ISAF International Security Assistance Force website at www.policyalternatives.ca. Printed ISI Inter-Services Intelligence copies may be ordered through the National Office JeM Jaish-e-Mohammed for a $10 fee. LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba 205-75 Albert Street, Ottawa, on k1p 5e7 MANPADS Man-Portable Air-Defense System tel 613-563-1341 fax 613-233-1458 NA Northern Alliance NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization email [email protected] OEF Operation ENDURING FREEDOM www.policyalternatives.ca PRT Provincial Reconstruction Teams RCMP Royal Canadian Mounted Police RPG Rocket Propelled Grenade TCN Troop Contributing Nation TTP Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UNSC United Nations Security Council USD United States Dollars Training Can Be Dangerous
A Realistic Assessment of the Proposed Canadian Mission to Train Afghan National Security Forces
Abstract with consequences for Canada’s involvement. Barack Obama became the U.S. president just On November 15, 2010, Prime Minister Stephen over two years ago determined to make Afghan- Harper announced his government’s plans to istan “his war”.1 Since he took office, there has extend the Canadian mission in Afghanistan to been a surge of additional American military the year 2014 and that Canada’s military efforts personnel into the country.2 The shift of strategy would be redirected towards a supposedly safer is aimed at decreasing the Taliban threat while non-combat training mission. This redirection concurrently building Afghan National Security coincides with NATO’s recent emphasis on in- Forces (ANSF) to a level where they can take over creasing the capability of the Afghan National from the International Security Assistance Force Army and Police so that they can take over from (ISAF). In the process, ISAF will be moving away Western forces. These major decisions concern- from state building and reconstruction efforts.3 ing Canada’s defence and foreign policy were There are two distinct Taliban groups involved made without prior Parliamentary debate. This in the Afghan conflict. The first, the Afghan -Tal report aims to explore the questions left unre- iban, had its origins as an anti-corruption, se- solved because of the lack of public debate by curity-establishing militia in the mid-1990s that engaging in a clear-eyed assessment of the risks was based on the principles associated with fun- facing Canadian military personnel, and of the damentalist Islam. The origins of the Pakistani prospects for a successful training mission. It Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban or TTP) are markedly concludes that the risk of Canadian casualties different. The TTP arose from Pakistan’s Presi- is high, while the prospects for success are slim. dent General Zia ul-Haq’s islamization of Paki- stan’s military officer corps and intelligence ser- Introduction vices in the 1970s, including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Since the end of the Soviet oc- Recent developments in the United States have cupation of Afghanistan, the ISI and Pakistan’s affected the Afghan Theatre of OperationsATO ( ), military cadre have supported jihadist groups in
Training Can Be Dangerous 3 order to wage an insurgency-by-proxy in Indi- in Parliament, arguing that the new mission is an-controlled Kashmir. There are many reasons technical, safe, and non-combat: “[W]hen we’re why the TTP has risen in prominence recently, talking simply about technical or training mis- including the war in Afghanistan, the outlaw- sions, I think that is something the executive can ing of some Kashmiri proxy groups by President do on its own.”12 While Harper is constitution- General Pervez Musharraf,4 and an increased ally correct that the executive holds the power radicalization in the Federally Administered to make decisions concerning the defense of the Tribal Areas (FATA). The TTP play a number of realm, it is increasingly recognized that Parlia- different roles in the Afghan conflict, including ment should be allowed to debate such matters at times compromising ISAF’s logistical support and hold the executive accountable.13 The prob- routes through northern Pakistan.5 lem is that this particular training mission will Canadian forces have been deployed in Af- occur in the middle of a war zone, where our ghanistan for nearly ten years and — despite of- troops will inevitably face danger, and within ficial assertions otherwise — the security situa- the framework of a larger NATO mission with tion on the ground has not improved. In 2009, doubtful prospects. It is true that there are no U.S. commander General Stanley McCrystal certainties in a war zone. But in the face of in- stated: “Although considerable effort and sacri- creasingly unfavorable Canadian public opinion, fice have resulted in some progress, many indi- any significant operational shift in the Afghan cators suggest the overall situation is deteriorat- deployment should be subject to rigorous exter- ing.”6 McCrystal’s assessment contributed to the nal examination. decision to mount a surge of 30,000 American There has also been relatively little debate troops to combat and push back the resurgent about the training mission within the Canadian Taliban forces. In a recent UN report, 2010 was media and general public — perhaps because of assessed to be the bloodiest year since 2001 for the concurrence of the Conservative and Lib- Afghan civilians.7 There was a dramatic decrease eral parties on this issue. Yet according to a re- in ISAF and ANSF responsible deaths from 26 cent poll conducted by Angus-Reid, 56 percent percent to 16 percent, while deaths caused by the of Canadians disagree with the continuation of insurgents increased significantly.8 On Decem- Canadian military operations in Afghanistan.14 ber 13, 2010, The Telegraph published a letter to Only 48 percent agree with the shift to a non- President Obama sent by 23 leading experts on combat role.15 Afghanistan stating that overall ISAF strategy In this context, our report focuses on two and the surge are not working.9 key questions: Making matters even worse, Hamid Karzai’s 1. Will the training mission really be safe? government was recently in the midst of a con- stitutional crisis, with controversies over election 2. Will the training mission succeed? fraud dominating Afghan politics.10 According to James Fergusson, a noted investigative jour- The Canadian Mission nalist and author, the international community spent $300 million United States Dollars (USD) Canada has been instrumental in the Afghan on the badly flawed 2009 elections.11 theatre since Operation ENDURING FREEDOM In November 2010, Prime Minister Stephen (OEF) began in 2001. In 2005, Canada accepted Harper decided to extend the Canadian mis- the responsibility to conduct military and pro- sion and shift it towards a training role. He did vincial reconstruction efforts in Kandahar prov- 16 so without allowing for a vote or even a debate ince. At the time of this report, 155 Canadian
4 canadian centre for policy alternatives military personnel and 4 Canadian civilians have ada to remain would only have increased after been lost; 1000s more have suffered permanent the Dutch withdrawal in August 2010.24 physical and/or psychological injury. On November 10, 2010, shortly after the Harp- On May 17, 2006, the Canadian mission in er government announced the new mission, U.S. Afghanistan was extended for two years.17 This Assistant Secretary of State Philip Crowley said: was after a six-hour debate and a parliamentary “We, the United States, have been encouraging a vote of 149 for, and 145 against, the extension.18 number of countries to add trainers to help with On February 25, 2008, the Canadian mission was the development of Afghan national security extended from 2009 to the end of 2011.19 This forces.”25 But if this is so, and the role is indeed time the parliamentary vote was 198 for, and 77 safe, then why have other countries not already against, the extension.20 It should be noted that taken up this role much more fully? In other the support of the Liberal Party was conditioned words, why has it fallen upon Canada — which on a significant shift to training and reconstruc- has already contributed significantly and dis- tion. For the most part, the promised shift has proportionately in Afghanistan — to extend its not occurred. The latest extension came on No- mission in this way? vember 15, 2010, after Prime Minister Harper The argument can be made that the exten- announced that the Canadian mission will be sion and redirection of the mission was under- extended to 2014 and refocused on the training taken to appease the United States. Concerns of ANSF personnel.21 about negative trade impacts are often evoked TheNDP and the Bloc Quebecois have been by those who want Canada to follow U.S. initi- insistent in their calls for a Parliamentary debate atives such as the invasion of Iraq and ballistic about the new extension and shift to a training missile defence. However, there is no verifiable mission. The Liberal Party, on the other hand, link between negative trade impacts and Canada has accepted Mr. Harper’s assertion that a de- not responding to the immediate interests of our bate was neither necessary nor appropriate. As American neighbours. Canada did not take part far back as June 2010, Liberal foreign affairs in the invasion and occupation of Iraq, nor did critic Bob Rae “indicated his party is amenable we sign up for Missile Defence, yet the trade rela- to keeping Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan as tionship between the United States and Canada so-called military trainers — even after the 2011 is as strong and profitable as before. deadline.”22 This created the opportunity for both For others it is a concern that if Afghanistan the Liberals and the Conservatives to remove were to revert to Taliban control, it would again the issue of Afghanistan from public debate, as become a haven for extremist terrorist groups the two parties together form a clear majority. posing a threat to the West. It is widely known Other troop contributing nations (TCNs) were that the Taliban regime harboured al-Qaeda and concerned about the prospect of Canadian troops its leadership prior to 9/11 and that was the main withdrawing from Afghanistan. According to reason for Western intervention in the country. WikiLeaks, former UK Prime Minister Gordon However, al-Qaeda has already moved on to Pa- Brown was irked by the withdrawal of Dutch and kistan, Yemen and elsewhere. Moreover, as U.S. possibly Canadian troops from the volatile south actions vis-à-vis Pakistan and Yemen demonstrate, of Afghanistan.23 His concern was that few TCNs there may be other ways to control the al-Qae- would be willing to undergo the casualties and da threat that do not involve having hundreds political costs of operating in that particularly of thousands of Western troops on the ground. hostile region. The diplomatic pressures on Can- Just as likely, the extension and redirection of the Canadian mission results from a concern
Training Can Be Dangerous 5 that “losing” Afghanistan would undermine the But the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) is not credibility of NATO as an international secu- a war that threatens the survival of any NATO rity organisation.26 Of course, it was thinking state. Indeed, some analysts believe that NATO’s like this that kept the United States in Vietnam operational capability has become fractured be- well beyond the point where any realistic analy- cause of its involvement in Afghanistan.29 The sis would have seen them pull out. NATO states are diversely influenced by their Finally, the decision to extend the Canadian domestic politics, and because of this some have mission could be based on a genuine concern for accepted only token non-combat roles, whereas the security and well-being of Afghan civilians, Canada has been involved in a difficult combat even if the dramatic worsening of the security role for most of the Afghan mission. situation during the course of ISAF’s operations In November 2010, NATO leaders announced renders this kind of thinking less credible than a plan to transfer the overall security of Afghani- it was before. stan to ANSF and end the alliance’s overall com- In any event, this array of possible reasons bat role by 2014. However, this deadline is obvi- for the decision is only part of the context that ously a flexible one. As Ahmed Rashid, the noted needs to be taken into account. Pakistani journalist, explains: “the U.S. warned that its forces would continue fighting beyond Geopolitical Context that date if the security situation deteriorated. Clearly, the U.S. and NATO are on two differ- Article V of the NATO Charter was invoked after ent timetables.”30 the United States suffered the terrorist attacks of So what does ISAF’s exit strategy look like? 9/11, and because of this and political support for The recently revised strategy was clearly and suc- (and pressure from) the alliance’s leading mem- cinctly reported on by Bob Woodward, who ex- ber, NATO countries have supplied military as- plained the decision-making process within the sistance to Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) White House in 2009–10 in his book Obama’s and the International Security Assistance Force Wars.31 According to Woodward, the exit strat- (ISAF) ever since. ISAF took over the Afghan egy is based on a three-pillared approach: mission in August 2003 on the basis of it being • a surge to push back the Taliban in a Crisis Response or Peace Support Operation.27 Afghanistan; However, because of the lack of stability this was seen as contentious within NATO and many of • an increased use of drones and special the organization’s members refused, and still forces in northern Pakistan to target refuse, to take part in the operation. Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters there; ISAF has been American-led since 2003 and • the training of hundreds of thousands as a result its capabilities have been dependent of Afghan soldiers and police capable of on the vicissitudes of U.S. politics. As the Unit- taking over from NATO forces — initially ed States prepared to invade Iraq, ISAF’s oper- by 2011, and now by 2014. ational capabilities were curtailed. There were The three pillars indicate a shift from Coun- dramatic decreases in intelligence efforts, UAVs ter-Insurgency (COIN) operations to Counter- and American military personnel.28 Terrorism (CT) operations. In particular, the in- NATO was formed in 1949 to counter the So- creased use of special forces and Predator drones viet Union and Article V of the NATO Charter is hardly conducive to a “hearts and minds” op- stipulates that if one member state is attacked eration of national reconstruction aimed at al- then the other members have a duty to defend it.
6 canadian centre for policy alternatives tering the perceptions of the civilian population class has been Pashtun. Pashtun representation and therefore reducing their support for the in- in the army is lower than its proportion of the surgency. Just as problematically, if any of the population, and only 3 percent of recruits are from three pillars were to fall, the whole edifice could the volatile South.”35 This leads to the impression come crashing down. that the ANA is prejudiced against Pashtuns and In December 2009, Obama authorized the attempting to impose the authority of Tajik and deployment of an additional 30,000 troops.32 In, other minority groups on them. The choice of January 2011, he authorized a further deployment the Dari word “Moshtarak” for the operation in of 1,400 marines.33 In concert with the surge, Helmand only reinforced this perception – for greater emphasis was put on improving the ca- although Dari is the official language of the -Af pability of ANSF, which is where Canada’s new ghan government, many Pastuns do not speak it. training mission comes in. Third, even after Operation MOSHTARAK had concluded, further operations were needed Complications Facing NATO’s Plans to seize territory and urban areas that ISAF and the ANA had been unable to capture during the In the spring of 2010, a major operation began in initial operation.36 southern Afghanistan. Operation MOSHTARAK Fourth, according to Fergusson, Karzai’s (Dari for “Togetherness”) was a joint operation proposals for peace talks with the Taliban were consisting of 8,000 ANA personnel and 7,000 undermined — rather than supported — by ISAF ISAF personnel that was targeted at the poppy- and ANA’s activities in Helmand.37 growing district of Helmand province. It dem- onstrated a number of things that complicate The Training Mission Will Likely NATO’s plans for a smooth transition to Afghan Result in Canadian Casualties forces in 2014: First, Afghans believe that the Taliban will Prime Minister Stephen Harper insists that risks come back quickly after ISAF leaves an area. A to Canadian soldiers will be reduced. However, recent report published by the U.S. Department our analysis indicates that the risks are still sig- of Defense states that “[t]he Taliban’s strength nificant and will likely lead to Canadian casual- lies in the Afghan population’s perception that ties; possibly quite a number of them. Coalition forces will soon leave, giving credence The Harper government is portraying the to the belief that a Taliban victory is inevitable.”34 shift to training as a non-combat role. In No- Therefore, the locals are hesitant to cooperate vember 2010, Prime Minister Harper was asked which impedes the effectiveness of our forces, whether there would be a parliamentary vote on and those of the ANA. altering Canada’s mandate in Afghanistan to the Second, even ANA-led operations are seen training mission. He replied, as aforementioned: as foreign, because the Karzai government is “[W]hen we’re talking simply about technical or viewed as a corrupt and ineffective puppet ad- training missions, I think that is something the ministration for the West. Furthermore, promo- executive can do on its own.”38 tions within the ANA tend to go to those soldiers Even if one assumes that the security situation from the former Northern Alliance territories. in-and-around the bases is safe, there are risks The Tajiks, for example, dominate the officer inherent in military training exercises. Casual- classes of ANSF even though “U.S. training and ties occur even in the most seemingly low-risk recruitment includes a strict parity between all situations. The first four Canadian deaths dur- ethnic groups. Traditionally the Afghan officer ing the war came during a training exercise, as
Training Can Be Dangerous 7 the result of a friendly fire incident involving an be whether ANSF has been infiltrated by insur- American F-16.39 Then, in February 2010, anoth- gents, but to what degree. The following is a list er Canadian soldier was killed and four injured of recent attacks already carried out by insurgent during a training accident at a shooting range infiltrators on ISAF personnel: near Kandahar.40 So far, six Canadian soldiers • On November 4, 2009, five British soldiers have been killed — and dozens wounded — by were killed by an Afghan policeman at a “friendly fire” in Afghanistan. Moreover, Cana- checkpoint in Helmand province.44 dian soldiers will have more to worry about than friendly-fire mishaps during training exercises. • On July 13, 2010, three British soldiers were For instance, the Afghan insurgency is seek- killed by an Afghan soldier at a base in 45 ing to impede ANSF recruitment, as NATO Helmand province. pushes to hasten the build-up of Afghan army • The following week, two American and police. Two recent coordinated attacks are contractors and two Afghan soldiers were demonstrative: killed during training by another Afghan On December 19, 2010, insurgents attacked soldier inside Camp Shaheen, an Afghan a bus outside Afghanistan’s main army recruit- army training base outside Mazar-e- ment centre on the outskirts of Kabul, killing five Sharif.46 soldiers. The recruitment centre is where most • On August 24, 2010, two Spanish of the Canadian soldiers involved in the train- policemen and their interpreter were killed ing mission will likely be stationed. On the same by an Afghan policeman they were training day, insurgents attacked an army recruitment in north-west Afghanistan.47 centre in the northern city of Kunduz. Five Af- • On October 6, 2010, an Afghan soldier ghan soldiers and three policemen were killed; fired a rocket-propelled grenade at French another 20 soldiers were wounded.41 and Afghan forces manning an outpost Attacking recruitment centers and training north of Kabul. Fortunately, nobody was bases can be a successful tactic for an insurgency injured in the incident.48 as it potentially has an effect on both the domes- tic situation and the international community’s • On November 29, 2010, an Afghan willingness to stay involved in the country. This policeman killed six of his American is because every Afghan casualty will reduce the trainers in eastern Afghanistan. The number of volunteers and demoralize new re- Taliban subsequently claimed he had been 49 cruits and with every ISAF casualty the West’s sent to join the police as a sleeper agent. casualty aversion increases. • On January 20, 2011, an Afghan soldier Although such attacks are increasing, this shot two Italian soldiers dead on a military is not a new tactic within Afghanistan. Ismael base.50 Khan, who will be discussed later in this report, • On February 18, 2011, an Afghan soldier first gained notoriety during the Soviet occupa- killed three German soldiers and wounded tion by employing this tactic.42 Khan was an Af- six others on a base in Baghlan Province.51 ghan army captain in 1979 when he led a revolt against a Soviet base which resulted in the death • On April 4, 2011, an Afghan border of fifty Soviet officers and their wives. policeman killed two American trainers The media has occasionally expressed con- inside a compound in northern Faryab 52 cern about the risk of insurgent infiltration of Province. ANSF.43 Unfortunately, the question should not
8 canadian centre for policy alternatives Before the expansion of ANSF became a po- You’re not going to stop corruption by litical issue, there was only a vague semblance getting on the phone to an Afghan 600 of security checks on recruits. Now, with strong kilometres away and saying, “Don’t steal.” political pressure for a rapid expansion, it is dif- Where they are partnered, they are more ficult to see how adequate security checks could effective. There’s less corruption, better be conducted on incoming personnel — espe- skills and the equipment and facilities are cially given current conditions in Afghanistan. better maintained.53
Both Canada and the United States will want Mission Creep? the ANSF to be effective after the training. This means that the instruction will have to include Prime Minister Stephen Harper has imposed a a practical mentoring phase. Canadian troops restriction on the Canadian training mission, conduct many such missions now: “according namely that our soldiers will remain “inside the to the Department of National Defence, 325 of wire” on secure bases. This so-called “caveat” the 2,750 Canadian military personnel in Af- raises several questions: ghanistan are currently engaged in ‘instructing, training and mentoring’ members of the Afghan 1. Who will provide the security army and police.”54 The “mentoring” involves for these bases? Canadian troops being embedded within ANSF It seems unlikely that ISAF personnel from other operations in order to provide on-the-spot as- contributing states will provide the security for sistance and to ensure that they are conducting Canadian-run training bases, as none of these missions effectively. states wishes to incur additional risks to their Inevitably, there will be pressure to lift the personnel. But having Canadian forces securing new caveat and go “outside the wire” again, and the bases’ perimeters will increase the risks to there is every reason to believe that Prime Min- those forces, while also raising the difficult ques- ister Harper would concede. After all, he was tion as to where the perimeters begin. Will Ca- adamant that the troops would come home in nadian soldiers end up seeking to secure buffer 2011, until succumbing to U.S. pressure to keep zones around the bases and, if so, how wide — and them there until 2014. Once the caveat is lifted, dangerous — will those zones become? the already significant risk to Canadian soldiers will increase and additional casualties will be 2. Training “inside the wire” is less effective, incurred. Already a number of the Canadian which will lead to pressure to go “outside” casualties-to-date have occurred while leading According to Superintendent John Brewer of the Afghan soldiers or policemen on patrol. RCMP, who spent nine months working with the Afghan border police, only hands-on mentoring “outside the wire” will produce a force capable of For Whom Are We Training securing the country once NATO troops with- the Afghan Forces? draw. Brewer claimed, “If I had been restricted to The Harper government and U.S. officials both Kabul, and had to rely on third-hand information, state that training ANSF will enable the Afghan I couldn’t have built my group.” Canadian train- government to control its own territory. But this ers restricted to bases in Kabul would be “flying outcome is hardly assured. the flag” but having little operational impact. In 2009, the rate of ANSF recruitment was Brewer gave the following illustrative example: approximately 2,000 recruits per month. The
Training Can Be Dangerous 9 ANA is currently composed of some 150,000 Corruption Perceptions Index — a widely re- troops — with a goal of 240,000 by 2014.55 But spected measure of domestic, public sector cor- even if the rate of recruitment were greatly in- ruption.61 According to Transparency Interna- creased it would not solve the problem of reten- tional, “Widespread corruption in Afghanistan tion. According to Rashid, the attrition rate of continues to seriously undermine state-building the Afghan army is a staggering 24 percent; in and threatens to destroy the trust of the Afghan other words, nearly one-quarter of Afghan sol- people in their government and their institutions diers leave the army each year.56 And the rate of while fueling insecurity.”62 desertion will surely increase if the Karzai gov- Rashid interviewed Yousuf Pashtun, the for- ernment were to falter: In 1979, a large Soviet- mer governor of Kandahar province, who claimed trained Afghan army evaporated in the face of that “eighty percent of the crimes are being com- an insurgency, leading the Soviets to invade in an mitted by the local militias, commanders, and effort to protect their client Afghan government.57 the police rather than criminals, so the Taliban Moreover, according to Rashid, 86 percent are not to blame for everything.”63 of Afghan soldiers are “illiterate and drug use is There is good evidence that corruption is pre- still an endemic problem.”58 On March 17, 2011, sent at the highest levels of the Afghan govern- Defense Minister Peter MacKay announced that ment. President Karzai’s own brother, Ahmed Canadian Forces will continue their efforts to Wali Karzai, has been implicated in the drugs transfer basic literacy skills to ANSF person- trade.64 In another case revealed by a cable re- nel.59 Which raises the question: are Canadian leased by Wikileaks and dated August 6, 2009, forces undertaking more they can manage, in- U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry reported that, cluding tasks they are neither trained nor well- In April, President Karzai pardoned five suited to fulfill? border policemen who were caught with In the circumstances, it seems doubtful that 124 kilograms of heroin in their border ANSF will ever be able to control Afghanistan police vehicle. The policemen, who have as a whole. Indeed, after almost ten years of come to be known as the Zahir Five, were U.S./NATO involvement the ASNF have not yet tried, convicted and sentenced to terms of proven able to secure and control any territo- 16 to 18 years each at the Central Narcotics ry on their own. It was reported recently that Tribunal. But President Karzai pardoned all ANSF will be taking over six areas from ISAF, five of them on the grounds that they were including areas that are coveted for the Cana- distantly related to two individuals who had dian training mission, but these are the safest been martyred during the civil war.65 areas in Afghanistan — and a successful hando- ver has yet to occur.60 In yet another cable from October 19, 2009, Even if there were reason to hope that the Ambassador Eikenberry reported that the United ANSF could control its own country one day, Arab Emirates government “had stopped Afghan the character of their political masters creates Vice-President Ahmad Zia Masood entering the another reason for concern. Although the inter- country with $52 million earlier this year — a national community has invested many millions significant amount he was ultimately allowed of dollars to establish a democratic regime in Af- to keep without revealing the money’s origin or ghanistan, corruption is serious and endemic: So destination.”66 In the same cable, Eikenberry also much so that Afghanistan tied with Myanmar reported that “Sher Khan Farnood, the Chair- for second-most-corrupt country (just ahead of man of Kabul Bank, reportedly owns 39 prop- Somalia) in Transparency International’s 2010 erties on the Palm Jumeirah in Dubai and has
10 canadian centre for policy alternatives other financial interests spread widely beyond ing the mistrust and tension between the U.S. Afghanistan.”67 and Iran through misinformation and gossip.75 American diplomats and Transparency In- The question therefore needs to be asked: Why ternational are not the only ones who have ex- does the Karzai regime tolerate such behaviour pressed concern about the level of corruption in on the part of Khan and other Afghan officials?76 Afghanistan. According to yet another U.S. cable The answer seems to be political survival: turn- released by Wikileaks, dated February 23, 2010, ing a blind eye to large-scale corruption is the Canadian Ambassador William Crosbie told price Karzai pays for support. Eikenberry that the scale of corruption within This informal style of “strong man” politics the Karzai government made his “blood boil”.68 does not foster a technocratic, rule-based ap- ISAF’s actions have had the unintended ef- proach to governance. In fact, it has the oppo- fect of incidentally facilitating the corruption site effect, one that “inflicts a number of costs on of both the Karzai regime and the Afghan war- the population and the state, from inefficiency lords — the former commanders of the National to corruption and human rights abuse.”77 Khan Alliance. These warlords treat large areas of Af- is also accused, by Reporters Without Borders, ghanistan as their personal fiefdoms and govern to have stifled the press;78 and by Human Rights independently of Kabul’s control. As observed Watch to have hushed up human rights abuses.79 by Dipali Mukhopadhyay: “Many of these war- It is apparent that the Karzai government is lords do not feel compelled to dismantle the in- dependent for its survival on both Western fi- formal networks of power that enable [them] to nancial and military support and the warlords. control the province and assert influence in the It is increasing likely that when ISAF leaves, the region and Kabul.”69 government will implode and the civil war be- One such former NA commander is Ismael tween the former commanders of the Northern Khan, whom Karzai has refused to fire, and who Alliance and the Taliban insurgency in the south has strong ties with Iran.70 During the Afghan will resume. The soldiers that we have trained, Civil War, following the Soviet withdrawal, the and the equipment we have paid for, will likely Iranians covertly supplied parts and ammuni- end up in the militias of various warlords, or as tion for Khan’s Soviet-era tanks and built roads part of the Taliban. in the region.71 Iran also gave Khan refuge when the Taliban overran his forces in Herat in Sep- The Security Situation: From Bad to Worse tember 1995.72 Khan is the current Afghan Minister of En- Contrary to the claims of some NATO govern- ergy and the former governor of the Province of ment officials, the security situation in Afghan- Herat. During his time as governor he was no- istan is growing worse. Since 2006, there has torious for refusing to hand over tax revenue; been an escalation in violence, the Afghan in- according to Rashid, he made between $3–5 surgency has become more adept, and their at- million USD a month.73 Needless to say, this tax tacks have become more complex in both tactics revenue should have been used to rebuild the and equipment. They have been known to use Afghan state rather than fill the coffers of a for- field radios and cell phones to coordinate, and mer Afghan warlord. Other warlords also take have improved their use of improvised explosive advantage of bountiful reconstruction contracts devices (IEDs).80 In addition ISAF and ANSF ac- for their own personal gain.74 tivities have been compromised by Taliban sym- Rashid claims that Khan has diverted atten- pathizers, who alert the Taliban of any upcom- tion from his own nefarious affairs by encourag- ing operation.81
Training Can Be Dangerous 11 The Taliban of today are far more sophisti- 47s and RPGs. During Operation MOSHTARAK, cated than the Taliban of ten years ago. Three there were reports that the Taliban had brought years ago, Sean Maloney, professor at Royal in Soviet-era anti-aircraft guns in preparation Military College, drew three lessons from Ca- for the allied assault.88 nadian operations in the Zharey district of Kan- Although Pakistan remains the principal dahar province: source of arms for the Taliban,89 some of the weapons may be coming from Iran. On 5 Febru- First, the insurgents stood and fought ary 2011, UK Special Forces intercepted a rock- from prepared defensive positions in a et shipment from Iran that was destined for the coordinated fashion. Second, the presence Taliban.90 Increased weapons smuggling from of foreign fighters was confirmed: Punjabis Iran would only increase the pressure on ISAF and Chechens. Third, the insurgents and ANSF. understood the decreasing propaganda The Taliban are most definitely not a rab- value of using the population as human ble. Their command structure has evolved to be shields and thereafter depopulated certain “resilient: centralized enough to be efficient, but potential battle areas by insisting that the flexible and diverse enough to adapt to local con- civilian population leave.82 texts. (In addition, the Taliban have been prag- More, recently, there has been a marked em- matic in their use of criminal gang and opium phasis on IEDs as the weapon of choice against resources.)”91 Nor do suggestions that there is a ISAF and ANSF. These IEDs allow the Taliban degree of rivalry between the “star” Taliban com- to adopt a strategy of indirect warfare which is manders equate to their lacking cohesion or be- conducive to successful insurgencies. According ing divisible.92 Since 2006, their operational tac- to Tony Geraghty: “In 2009, at least 175 American tics have changed and their numbers increased.93 and allied troops were killed [by IEDs], double The severity of the situation has been recog- the number from the year before.”83 A similar as- nized by some government officials as well as sessment comes from iCasualty.org.84 It should credible non-government organizations. As men- be noted, however, that there have also been re- tioned above, General McCrystal presented an cent incidents where the Taliban have commit- initial assessment that shocked Bob Woodward ted themselves to a frontal attack. For instance, by his tone and dictation, depicting a grave situ- Al Jazeera has released footage of what appears ation in Afghanistan. In 2008, the United Na- to be the Taliban showcasing confiscated Ameri- tions also released a damning statement claiming can equipment — after the Taliban captured an that the security situation had become markedly American base in the Korengal Valley in 2010.85 worse.94 In December 2010, a group of prominent The Taliban may also be better equipped than academics and commentators gave their own NATO officials would have us believe. Last sum- candid assessment to President Obama.95 ANSF mer, U.S. documents released by WikiLeaks sug- may not be effective in improving and creating gested that a Canadian Chinook helicopter did a sustainable secure situation in Afghanistan not accidentally crash, but was brought down if ISAF aims to pull out by 2014. According to by a first generation Man-Portable Air-Defence a recent report by al-Jazeera, locals of Bamyan System (MANPADS);86 this has since been con- province, located in north-eastern Afghanistan, firmed by the Canadian Forces.87 The fact that are concerned about the return of the Taliban as the Taliban are using infrared-guided missiles U.S. forces begin transferring responsibilities to differs from the Western media’s portrayal of ANSF personnel.96 them as a primitive rabble equipped with AK-
12 canadian centre for policy alternatives It is clear that NATO governments have aban- not available for the UN peacekeeping mission doned any realistic hope of developing Afghan- in Lebanon.99 In 2009, the Canadian government istan’s infrastructure and improving the over- refused to make General Andrew Leslie avail- all welfare of its people. Nor, considering the able to serve as the UN commander in the Con- quantitative emphasis taken to training ANSF, is go, despite the fact that he would have required NATO focused on the overall operational condi- the support of only a few dozen Canadian per- tion of those forces. It would be difficult enough sonnel.100 In 2010, the deployment of Canadian to train a literate army, supply them with equip- Forces personnel to Haiti was curtailed just six ment and assist them with their operational de- months after the cataclysmic earthquake there.101 velopment during a widespread insurgency. Yet The latest global financial crisis is not over, Afghanistan is a highly illiterate country. It has and other ISAF troop contributing nations are also been ravaged by three decades of conflict making defense spending cuts. The United King- and is deeply fractured along ethnic and faction- dom is scrapping a £4 billion Nimrod aircraft al lines. Efforts to develop the country’s overall project in an effort to save £200 million.102 U.S. infrastructure have made little difference and Defense Secretary Robert Gates has recently the conditions impeding this development have proposed dramatic spending cuts to assist in de- not changed. Realizing this, it appears that the flating America’s ballooning deficit.103 These re- U.S.-led coalition is now attempting to acceler- cent cuts are reversing the significant increases ate the recruitment of ANSF in order to create a to Western defense budgets that were made af- façade behind which they can bow out; to “leave ter September 11, 2001. In 2000, Canada spent with honour”. Which raises the question: why $8.292 billion USD on its military; by 2009 the should Canada’s soldiers suffer more casualties annual bill had more than doubled — to $19.869 in an extended “training” mission, if the deci- billion.104 These increases have greatly exceed- sion to abandon Afghanistan to its fate has al- ed any growth in Canada’s GDP: for example, in ready been made? 2009 our GDP decreased by 2.4 percent while de- fense spending increased by nearly 10 percent.105 Opportunity Costs This kind of spending is clearly not sustainable, which means that hard choices have to be made. In October 2010, Canadian news headlines were The training mission in Afghanistan has, and dominated by the country’s failure to win a non- will in the future, have a negative impact on the permanent seat on the United Nations Security ability of the Canadian Forces to maintain and Council (UNSC).97 Arguably, a contributing factor modernize its military equipment while caring was Canada’s abandonment of its long-standing for the legacy costs of our troops, veterans, and role in UN peacekeeping. Naturally, because our military families. soldiers cannot be in two places in once, keeping It goes without saying that the expenses asso- Canadian forces in a NATO mission in Afghan- ciated with the training mission will also impact istan reduced our ability to contribute to UN negatively on the Canadian government’s ability operations elsewhere. The fact that the NATO to pay for other things, from employment insur- mission has been authorized by the UN Security ance and pensions, to health and social services, Council does not make it a UN-led mission; nor to a well-resourced and effective Department do other countries consider it such.98 of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. The Canada’s lack of support for UN peacekeeping opportunity costs become all the more salient makes it more difficult for some of those mis- when one considers that the prospects for suc- sions to succeed. In 2006, Canadian troops were cess in Afghanistan are so woefully low. We, and
Training Can Be Dangerous 13 the other ISAF troop contributing nations, are targeting training facilities and infiltrating the pouring much-needed money into an increas- Afghan army and police. It is almost a given ingly dark hole. Canada will be pressured into sending troops “outside the wire” in order to provide security Conclusions for its own bases and mentor Afghan forces in the field. This report seeks to provide a clear-eyed assess- ment of the risks and prospects of Canada’s new 2. The training mission will likely fail. The training mission in Afghanistan, in an effort to effort to train hundreds of thousands of new stimulate the kind of debate that should have oc- Afghan soldiers and police will be impeded curred in Parliament. Although our conclusions by a worsening security situation, widespread are harsh, we have not come to them lightly: illiteracy, and extremely high desertion rates. Even if the training mission were to succeed 1. Numerous Canadian soldiers will likely in some measure the increasingly corrupt and be killed or permanently injured during the ineffective Karzai government seems destined training mission. Military training always to fail, raising the question as to whom the carries risks and the Taliban are increasingly newly trained soldiers and police will serve.
14 canadian centre for policy alternatives Bibliography
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16 canadian centre for policy alternatives . “Canada’s stay in Afghani- Gerein, Keith. “Teaching reading, writing add- stan extended by 2 years”, 17 May 2006
. “Canada rejects UN request to The Guardian. “US embassy cables: Money smuggling lead Congo Mission”, 09 July 2010
Dorronsoro, Gilles. “The Taliban’s Winning Strategy iCasualties. Operation Enduring Freedom.
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18 canadian centre for policy alternatives Sachs, Susan. “A gloomy observation on Afghan United Nations Office on Drug and Crime. “Afghani- training” 01 January 2011
Slater, Joanna. “Canada abandons UN bid in embar- US Department of Defense. “Report on Progress To- rassing turn for Harper”, 12 October 2010
Telegraph, The. “The letter from Afghan experts to Washington Post. “COMISAF Initial Assessment (Un- Barack Obama” 13 December 2010
Transparency International. “Corruption Perceptions Walkom, Thomas. “Bob Rae’s scheme to keep Cana- Index 2010 Results”
Training Can Be Dangerous 19 Woods, Allan. “Conservatives, Liberals extend Af- Woodward, Bob. 2010. Obama’s Wars. New York: Si- ghanistan mission” 14 March 2008
20 canadian centre for policy alternatives Notes
1 Bob Woodward. Obama’s Wars. (New York: Simon ians in Armed Conflict” March 2011
22 canadian centre for policy alternatives 34 US Department of Defense, “Report on Progress To- 45 BBC News Worldwide. Three British servicemen ward Security and Stability in Afghanistan”, November killed by Afghan soldier”, 13 July 2010 Training Can Be Dangerous 23 ca/politics/story/2010/11/11/greg-weston-troop-exten- ter-Narcotics Policy”, November 2006 24 canadian centre for policy alternatives 80 Gilles Dorronsoro. “The Taliban’s Winning Strat- General” 29 September 2008