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A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project Co-Authors Contributing Authors John Smart, Acceleration Studies Foundation Corey Bridges, Multiverse Jamais Cascio, Open the Future Jochen Hummel, Metaversum Jerry Paffendorf, The Electric Sheep Company James Hursthouse, OGSi Randal Moss, American Cancer Society Lead Reviewers Edward Castronova, Indiana University Richard Marks, Sony Computer Entertainment Alexander Macris, Themis Group Rueben Steiger, Millions of Us LEAD SPONSOR FOUNDING PARTNERS Futuring and Innovation Center Graphic Design: FizBit.com accelerating.org metaverseroadmap.org MVR Summit Attendees Distinguished industry leaders, technologists, analysts, and creatives who provided their insights in various 3D web domains. Bridget C. Agabra Project Manager, Metaverse Roadmap Project Patrick Lincoln Director, Computer Science Department, SRI Janna Anderson Dir. of Pew Internet’s Imagining the Internet; Asst. International Prof. of Communications, Elon University Julian Lombardi Architect, Open Croquet; Assistant VP for Tod Antilla Flash Developer, American Cancer Society Academic Services and Technology Support, Office of Information Technology Wagner James Au Blogger, New World Notes; Author, The Making of Second Life, 2008 Richard Marks Creator of the EyeToy camera interface; Director of Special Projects, Sony CEA R&D Jeremy Bailenson Director, Virtual Human Interaction Lab, Stanford University Bob Moore Sociologist, Palo Alto Research Center (PARC), PlayOn project Betsy Book Director of Product Management, Makena Technologies/There; Editor, Virtual Worlds Review Randal Moss Manager of Futuring and Innovation Based Strategies, American Cancer Society Corey Bridges Co-founder, Executive Producer and Marketing Director, Multiverse Jerry Paffendorf Research Director, Acceleration Studies Foundation; Futurist in Residence, Electric Sheep Jamais Cascio Founder, Open the Future; Former Editor, Worldchanging Company Edward Castronova Author, Synthetic Worlds, 2005; Director of Grad Marty Poulin Co-founder and CTO, Yoick; Former Director Studies, Dept of Telecom, U. of Indiana of Online Technology for Disney’s Interactive Studios Helen Cheng Assistant Product Manager, Seriosity John Smart President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Giff Constable VP of Business Development, Electric Sheep Company David Smith Architect, Open Croquet; CTO, 3DSolve Esther Dyson Editor, Release 1.0 and Editor at Large, CNET Rueben Steiger CEO, Millions of Us Networks John Swords Host, SecondCast Doug Englebart Pioneer of human-computer interaction at SRI; Daniel Terdiman Writer, CNET Director, Bootstrap Institute Barry Tolnas Web Development, American Cancer Society Randy Farmer Community Strategic Analyst, Yahoo!, Inc. Sibley Verbeck Founder and CEO, Electric Sheep Company Guy Garnett Director, Cultural Computing Program, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Mark Wallace Journalist; Blogger, 3pointD and Second Life Herald; Co-Author, Only a Game, 2006 Eric Gruber Freelance Producer, MTV Networks Payton White Manager of Distributed Network Technology, US Will Harvey Founder and CEO, IMVU R&D, Sony Computer Entertainment Daniel James CEO, Three Rings Ian Wilkes Director of Operations, Linden Lab/Second Life Joaquin Keller Lead Designer, Solipsis; Senior Researcher, France Nick Yee Founder, Daedalus Project; Ph.D. Student, Telecom R&D Department of Communication, Stanford Raph Koster MMORPG Designer; Former CCO, Sony Online University Entertainment Ethan Zuckerman Fellow, Berkman Center for Internet & Society, Mike Liebhold Senior Researcher, Institute for the Future Harvard University Other Contributors and Reviewers Other foresighted individuals who contributed ideas to or Jonas Karllson Research scientist, Images and Services Technology Center, Xerox Innovation Group. feedback on the MVR. Mason Lee Blog, Mason Lee. Paul J.S. Beaubein Independent. Tim Moenk Futurist, What a Concept. Blog, Continuous Alvis Brigis Entrepreneur, new media producer, futurist. Partial Attention. Peder Burgaard Event Manager, Innovation Lab, Denmark. Rik Panganiban Blog, The Click Heard Round the World. William G. Burns III CTO, VR5 Online. Blog, City of Nidus. Giulio Prisco Blog, Uvvy. David Carmein CEO, Virtual Space Devices. Byron Reeves Director, CLSI, Stanford University. Expert on the psychological processing of media. Joel Greenberg Sr. Planner, GSD&M. Friends Talking Podcast. Joyce Schwarz Principal of JCOM. Strategic marketing, John Hanke General Manager, Google Earth. branding, and new product introduction. Darren Herman Co-Founder of IGA Worldwide. Blog, Darren Fred Stutzman Co-Founder, Claim ID online identity Herman. management system, an implementation of the James Hursthouse CEO, Online Game Services, Inc. Hosting OpenID standard. and managing Massively Multiplayer Online Phillip Torrone Associate Editor, Make Magazine. Games since 1999. Philippe Van Nedervelde European virtual world developer, Joi Ito Blogger; CEO and Founder, Neoteny; Board, entrepreneur, and futurist. ICANN. Bruce Woodcock Researcher in Massively Multiplayer Online Sven Johnson Independent product development consultant. Games, mmogchart.com. Blog, reBang. Baba Yamamoto Director, LibSecondLife; SL History Wiki. Metaverse Roadmap Pathways to the 3D Web A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project What happens when video games meet Web 2.0? When virtual worlds meet geospatial maps of the planet? When simulations get real and life and business go virtual? When you use a virtual Earth to navigate the physical Earth, and your avatar becomes your online agent? What happens is the metaverse. In its inaugural version, the MVR periodically seeking the guidance of Introduction focuses on defining and exploring experts at sponsored MVR summits, Over the past year the this major new social space. In and engaging in extended interaction Acceleration Studies Foundation future versions we expect to add with online communities through the (ASF) and its supporting industry-developed timelines for use of blogs, wikis, podcasts, and foresight partners have explored Metaverse technology other media channels. the virtual and 3D future of the development. Our inaugural MVR World Wide Web in a first-of- budget was roughly $100K, paid We invite you to contribute your its-kind cross-industry public for by our generous financial unique insights to future Metaverse foresight project, the Metaverse sponsors. With the resources Roadmap summits, conversations, Roadmap (MVR). We use the provided we endeavored be as and updates through feedback, term Metaverse in a way that multinational and inclusive as volunteer effort, and financial includes and builds upon Neal possible. With greater support. In these early days of the Stephenson’s coinage in the recognition, more visibility and Metaverse, financial sponsorship is cyberpunk science fiction novel, more sponsorship support, we particularly helpful to improving the Snow Crash, which envisioned a look forward to bringing an even quality of future roadmaps. Email us future broadly reshaped by broader range of expertise to the at [email protected]. virtual and 3D technologies. next version of the roadmap. The MVR has “near-term” The MVR comprises two anticipation horizon of ten years documents, both (to 2017), a “longer-term” available at speculation horizon of twenty MetaverseRoadmap.org: years (to 2025), and a charter to 1) a set of MVR Inputs discover early indicators of (75 pages) which significant developments ahead. summarize key insights Seeking diverse points of view, in 19 foresight our process included an categories, and 2) this invitational Metaverse Roadmap MVR Overview (22 Summit, public and expert pages + Appendix) surveys, a few workshops and which synthesizes some roundtables at major U.S. (not all) of the Inputs conferences, social meetups, and into a series of narratives a public wiki. Many helpful to explain important people from the IT, virtual features of the change worlds, professional, academic, and opportunity ahead. Moore’s Law: A doubling of real futurist, and lay communities computing power has occurred every 2.3 contributed ideas to the MVR. The goal of the MVR project is to years, on average, since the birth of regularly update our ten- and modern computing. Moore’s Law is one of several enabling technological trends for twenty-year public foresight by Metaverse development. Metaverse Roadmap Pathways to the 3D Web 3 A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project web technologies, and the standard (efficiencies of ICT, nanotechnologies, Metaverse Definition way in which we think of life online. and process automation based on these The Metaverse is a complex Like the Web, the Metaverse technologies), it is most reasonable to concept. In recent years, the term wouldn't be the entirety of the expect the great majority of these has grown beyond Stephenson’s Internet—but like the Web, it would technology trends to continue 1992 vision of an immersive 3D be seen by many as the most accelerating over the time horizon of this virtual world, to include aspects of important part. roadmap. the physical world objects, actors, Moore’s Law is just one of a interfaces, and networks that The emergence of a robust large family of accelerating construct and interact with virtual technology capacity Metaverse will shape the and performance environments. We have collected development of many growth curves. several definitions in the Glossary technological realms that (Sec. 20) of the MVR Inputs. Here presently appear non- is one that seems as good
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