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Labor Economics LABOR ECONOMICS DOI: 10.15838/esc.2020.1.67.9 UDC 338.1, LBC 65.05 © Baranov S.V., Skuf’ina T.P., Gushchina I.A. The Impact of the Retirement Age Increase on the Economy and Attitudes of the Population of the Murmansk Oblast* Sergei V. BARANOV Kola Science Center of RAS Apatity, Murmansk Oblast, Russian Federation, 184209, Fersmana Street, 24a Е-mail: [email protected] ORCID: 0000-0002-1960-6120 Tat’yana P. SKUF’INA Kola Science Center of RAS Apatity, Murmansk Oblast, Russian Federation, 184209, Fersmana Street, 24a Е-mail: [email protected] ORCID: 0000-0001-7382-3110; ResearcherID: T-6770-2017 Irina A. GUSHCHINA Kola Science Center of RAS Apatity, Murmansk Oblast, Russian Federation, 184209, Fersmana Street, 24a Е-mail: [email protected] ORCID: 0000-0002-2664-9145 * The publication includes the results of the work supported by Russian Foundation for Fundamental Research no. 19- 010-00022 (statement of the research problem, surveys of the population of the Murmansk Oblast and the description); state assignment of FPFIS FRC Kola Science Center no. 0226-2019-0027 (in terms of consideration of modern management problems; specifics of the research of the economy of the Murmansk Oblast). For citation: Baranov S.V., Skuf’ina T.P., Gushchina I.A. The Impact of the Retirement Age Increase on the Economy and Attitudes of the Population of the Murmansk Oblast. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2020, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 160–173. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2020.1.67.9 160 Volume 13, Issue 1, 2020 Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast LABOR ECONOMICS Baranov S.V., Skuf’ina T.P., Gushchina I.A. Abstract. The article is devoted to a meaningful analysis of the impact of the retirement age increase on the economy of the Murmansk Oblast and the attitude of its residents. The pension system, which includes protectionism for the population of the North, has a significant impact on the economy, social life, and migration of the population. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of the retirement age changes on social and economic processes is particularly relevant for the Northern and Arctic territories. Three objectives were achieved: 1. Considering the change of the retirement age, the forecast for the number of able-bodied population of the Murmansk Oblast was made. It is shown that the increase of the retirement age will halt the steady decline of able-bodied population in the region, but it will not break the trend. Comparison with the results of the forecast for Russia as a whole showed that it qualitatively distinguishes the situation in the region from the national situation. 2. The features of GRP production in the Murmansk region, based on economic and statistical modeling, are reviewed. It is established that, with the current structure of the economy, a slight reduction of the decrease rate of the able-bodied population number will not have a significant impact on the production of GRP. 3. On the basis of the survey, conducted according to a representative regional sample of the Murmansk Oblast in 2019, attitudes of the Murmansk’s population were revealed. There is a very painful perception of the retirement age increase by the population; there is a persistent opinion that change of the retirement age does not meet the interests of the population of the North and the Arctic. A negative effect of the retirement age increase was diagnosed: a change of migration attitudes among the most significant group of the Murmansk Oblast’s population (from the perspectives of regional production) – people of young (18–29 years old) and middle (30–49 years old) ages. For example, a significant number of members of these age groups have already decided to leave the Murmansk Oblast. They link their decision to the factor of the retirement age increase. Thus, the positive effect – a decrease of the rate of the able-bodied population decline in the Murmansk region, caused by the retirement age increase – will be offset by a negative effect – the growth of the rate of migration losses in the region. Key words: retirement age increase, Arctic, Murmansk Oblast, GRP, number of able-bodied population, modelling, survey, people’s attitides. Introduction is obscured by objective economic situation. The overview of the required transformation Thus, the common point of view assumes of pension systems in developed and developing that the population ageing will lead to further countries is the spotlight of world science. It is increase of capital intensity with simultaneous defined by the fact that, despite external decrease of the capital return rate and growth of diversity, economic and interconnected salaries [1, 2, 5, 6]. demographic processes in different countries The basic problem of population ageing is lead to the single result – the reduction of able- solved by unpopular measures: raise of pension bodied population (the process has different contributions, reduction of pension payments, scales and speed of population ageing) [1, and the retirement age increase [1, 2, 3, 2, 3, 4, 5]. Increased social vulnerability 6, 7, 8]. Summary of the research results is the reality of older people. “Successful shows that the retirement age increase is the ageing” phenomenon of developed countries’ preferred option for the economy and social population, created by the pension system, sphere [9, 10]. Numerous domestic studies Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast Volume 13, Issue 1, 2020 161 The Impact of the Retirement Age Increase on the Economy and Attitudes of the Population... confirm this conclusion [4, 11, 12, 13, 14]. population, particularly concerning the Thus, the authors’ studies [14] show that the retirement age, has a significant impact on steady decline of the number of able-bodied the economy, social life, and migration of the population in Russia is corrected by the population. Therefore, the assessment of the retirement age increase. Studies on the specifics impact of the retirement age increase on social of Russian GDP production also confirm the and economic processes is particularly relevant thesis about the positive impact of the shift for the Northern and Arctic territories. of the number of able-bodied population on Our research is based on the test of the economic growth [4]. It is worth mentioning hypothesis that the retirement age increase is a many works that indicate the universality of the factor that can change the state of labor retirement age increase recipe for maintaining resources, the population’s behavior, and the welfare of the population and ensuring the significantly affect the processes of the stability of the pension system, regardless of its economic development in the Arctic regions. type and the birth rate [15, 16]. The purpose of the work is to analyze the According to world studies, the retirement impact of the retirement age increase on the age increase is also based on internal economy and attitudes of residents of the Arctic demographic reserves – lengthening of a region – the Murmansk Oblast. healthy life duration [17, 18]. The same trend Objectives: 1) to make a long-term forecast, is objectively typical for Russia: according to which takes into account the retirement age real data and demographic forecasts, further increase, for the number of able-bodied increase of Russians’ life expectancy is population in the Murmansk Oblast; 2) to expected [19, 20]. This trend is clearly visible review the features of the GRP production in for residents of the Russian part of the Arctic, the Murmansk Oblast; 3) to reveal attitudes of which is largely caused by the development of the Murmansk Oblast’s population, caused by social infrastructure with the goal of bringing the retirement age increase. indicators of regional and municipal statistics It should be noted that there are still no such of the Arctic territories closer to all-Russian assessments: this fact determines not only the ones [14, 21]. fundamental novelty, manifested in the estab- However, territorial “attachment” to the lished interconnections and the development problem of population ageing has a different trends of the Murmansk Oblast, caused by aspect for extremely diverse Russian regions: it the retirement age shift, but also the obvious is an assessment of the retirement age changes’ scientific and practical novelty, caused by new impact on regional processes. Numerous studies strategic objectives of the Russian Arctic’s of the macroeconomic movements’ impact development. on the regional development show that this Forecast for the number of able-bodied reaction can be very specific [22, 23, 24]. Also, population in the Murmansk Oblast, which a number of researchers demonstrate significant considers the retirement age changes economic and social risks of regional features’ The Murmansk Oblast shows quite high under-accounting in management practice rates of population ageing, which corresponds [25, 26, 27, 28]. with the situation across Northwestern Federal The pension system, which includes District (Tab. 1). The analysis of the protectionism for the Northern territories’ population’s natural movement (Tab. 2) and 162 Volume 13, Issue 1, 2020 Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast LABOR ECONOMICS Baranov S.V., Skuf’ina T.P., Gushchina I.A. Table 1. Age composition of the population by regions of Northwestern Federal District (year-end estimate, % of the total population) People below working age People of working age People above working age Territory 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Northwestern Federal District 15 15 16 16 17 17 61 60 59 58 57 57 24 25 25 26 26 27 Republic of Karelia 17 17 17 18 18 18 59 58 57 56 55 55 24 25 25 26 27 27 Komi Republic 19 19 19 20 20 20 62 61 60 59 58 57 19 20 20 21 22 23 Arkhangelsk Oblast 17 18 18 19 19 19 59 58 57 56 55 55 23 24 25 25 26 26 including: Nenets Auton.
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