Assessment of Potential Risk for Kola’s Population from Radiological Impact of Accident on Spent Nuclear Fuel Facilities Andrey Naumov Sergey Morozov Pavel Amossov Alexander Mahura Mining Institute, Vsevolod Koshkin Kola Science Centre Yuri Federenko Alexander Baklanov Institute of Northern Ecology (Scientific Advisor) Problems, Kola Science Centre Danish Metrological Institute Northern Studies Working Paper cerum, Centre for Regional Science No. 21:2001 se-90187 Umeå Sweden Umeå University cerum, Centre for Regional Science Assessment of Potential Risk for Kola’s Population from Radiological Impact of Accident on Spent Nuclear Fuel Facilities Andrey Naumov Sergey Morozov Pavel Amossov Alexander Mahura Mining Institute, Vsevolod Koshkin Kola Science Centre Yuri Federenko Institute of Northern Ecology Alexander Baklanov Problems, Kola Science Centre (Scientific Advisor), Danish Meterological Institute cerum Northern Studies Working Paper no. 21 isbn 91-7305-105-5 issn 1400-1969 Address: Cerum, Umeå University, se-901 87 Umeå, Sweden Telephone: +46-90-786.6079, Fax: +46-90-786.5121 www.umu.se/cerum [email protected] 4 Modelling and Visualizing a Nuclear Accident’s Short Term Impact on Transportation Flows Table of Contents Table of Contents, 5 List of Abbreviations, 7 List of Figures, 9 List of Tables, 11 The Project “Nuclear Problems, Risk Perceptions of, and Societal Responses to, Nuclear Waste in the Barents Region” - an Acknowledgement, 13 Executive Summary, 14 Introduction, 17 1Modern Approaches to the Risk Analysis, 21 1.1. Base of risk analysis, 21 1.2. Methods of realization of the risk analysis, 24 1.3. Main parameters of risk, 25 1.4. The methods of quantitative analysis of risk, 26 1.5. Mathematical models and territorial risk, 27 2 Normative Regulation of Risk at Liquidation of Radiation Accidents, 29 2.1. Main subjects of legal and normative regulation in Russia, 29 2.2. Persons responsible for decision making, 29 2.3. Normative regulation of a radiation safety, 30 2.4. Some essential problems in the local law and technical area, 32 2.5. Indemnification of nuclear injury, 33 2.6. Attitude of the state and society to radiation risk, radiation safety, 33 3 Description of Objects of Radiation Risk, 37 3.1. Database for the objects of the radiation risk, 37 3.2. Research object and initiative events, 39 3.3. Effect of economical and social problems, 42 3.4. Uncertainty of an estimation of probability of accident, 43 3.5. Time of decision making, 43 3.6. Irradiation feature of accidental brigades, 44 3.7. Climate and Population Summaries, 46 4 Assessment of Potential Risk for Storage Facility of Spent Fuel, 49 4.1. pc cosyma: Code and partial models, 49 4.2. Accident scenario and source term assessment, 53 4.3. Results of pc cosyma calculations and discussion, 55 4.4. Analysis of uncertainties, 62 4.5. Main results, 63 5 Evaluation of the Potential Contamination, 65 5.1. Methods, Models, Software, 65 5.2. Description of the Accident Scenarios, 68 5.3. Results and Discussion, 76 5.4. Conclusion of the Study, 82 Conclusions, 85 Recommendations, 86 Acknowledgements, 87 Table of Contents 5 References, 89 Internet References, 92 Appendix A Concepts and Definitions of the Theory of the Risk Analysis, 93 Characteristic of methods of the risk analysis, 94 Appendix B List of the Federal Norms and Rules in the Field of Use of an Atomic Energy, 96 Appendix C Criteria on Limitation of Irradiation of the Population in Conditions of Radiation Accident, 99 Appendix D Population in the Settlements of the Murmansk Region, 107 Appendix E Main Equations and Relations of Closure in pc cosyma, 108 Appendix F Accumulated Activity of the Accidental Radionuclide Releases, 110 Appendix G Deposition of 137Cs by Precipitation, Release Duration and Altitude (Kola npp), 113 Appendix H Deposition of 137Cs by Precipitation, Release Duration and Altitude (Nuclear Submarine), 116 Appendix I The Probability of Exceeding of the Control Level (Nuclear Submarine and Icebreaker), 118 Northern Studies Working Paper, 119 6 Sergey Morozov and Andrey Naumov List of Abbreviations aca Accident Consequence Assessment ars Acute Radiation Syndrome at Act of Terrorism Chnpp Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant cosyma COde SYstem from MAria ctb Coastal Technical Base csffm Coastal Storage Facility of Fissile Material fep Features, Events and Properties fmea Failure Mode and Effects Analysis fmeca Failure Mode, Effects and Critical Analysis fsrr Factory Ships of Recharge of Reactors fta Fault Tree Analysis ftb Floating Technical Base fzk Forschungs Zentrum Karlsruhe gd Guiding Document gosatomnadzor Federal Nuclear and Radiation Safety Authority (in Rus- sian) gosgortehnadzor State Mining and Industrial Supervision (in Russian) goskomecologia State Committee on Ecology (in Russian) goskomgidromet State Committee on Hydrometeorology (in Russian) gost State Standard (in Russian) iaea International Atomic Energy Agency icpr International Commission on Protection Radiation ines International Nuclear Events Scale iol International Organization of Labour knpp Kola Nuclear Power Plant lc Level of Conditions md Ministry of Defence minatom Russian Ministry on Atomic Energy (in Russian) MinES Ministry of Emergency Situations mintrans Ministry of Transport (in Russian) minzdrav Ministry of Health Care (in Russian) mpa Maximum Projected Accident mvd Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia (in Russian) nrb Norms of Radiation Safety (in Russian) nrpb National Radiological Protection Board List of Abbreviations 7 ns Nuclear Submarine odm Organ of Decision Making osporb-98 Basic Sanitary Rules (in Russian) pll Potential Loss of Life pwr Pressure Water Reactor sanepidnadzor State Sanitary and Epidemiological Supervision (in Rus- sian) scr Spontaneous Chain Reaction sf (snf) Spent Fuel (Spent Nuclear Fuel) snfa Spent Nuclear Fuel Assembles tmi-ii Three Mile Island ii tuk Transport-Packaging Container (in Russian) vats Vessel of Atomic-Technological Service who World Health Organization 8 Sergey Morozov and Andrey Naumov List of Figures Figure 1, page 38 Some nuclear risk objects located within and near the Kola Peninsula. Figure 2, page 49 An example of dividing of modelled area. Figure 3, page 51 Schematic map of location of settlements. Figure 4, page 56 Distribution of mean and maximum concentration in air 137Cs in depending on distance from a fire’s epicentre. Figure 5, page 56 Distribution of mean concentration in air and on ground of some radionuclides in depending on distance from an epicentre of a fire. Figure 6, page 57 Relation of individual doses for 50 years on different organs of a body with and without countermeasures in depending on distance. Figure 7, page 57 An example of countermeasures – duration of relocation on terms: 1–7 days; 2–3 months; 3–6 months; 4–12 months; 5 – more than one year. Figure 8, page 58 Collective dose on different organs of a body with and without countermeasures. Figure 9, page 58 Relation of individual risk of incidence of different organs of a body on distance from an epicentre of a fire with and without countermeasures. Figure 10, page 59 Relation of individual risk of incidence of a bone marrow, breast, skin and all body on distance from an epicentre of a fire with and without countermeasures. Figure 11, page 59 (Left) Relations of mean individual short-term risk of mortality on distance. Figure 12, page 59 (Right) The maximum estimation, average value, 90-th and 99-th percentiles for risks of mortality of the population on set of different weather conditions. Figure 13, page 60 The probability distribution of the areas, on which one is necessary to execute a decontamination and relocation. Figure 14, page 61 Number of incidence (top figures) and mortality (bottom figures) for the population of modelled area. (The core of nuclear submarine of a second generation; without (leftmost figures) and with (rigtmost figures) countermeasures). Figure 15, page 61 Number of incidence (top figures) and mortality (bottom figures) for the population of modelled area. (The core of nuclear submarine of a first generation; without (leftmost figures) and with (rightmost figures) countermeasures). Figure 16, page 66 Probability density function (pdf) of the wind direction (left) and wind velocity (right) for Yukspor meteorological station (913 m asl). Figure 17, page 66 Autocorrelation function (left) of wind velocity module for Kandalaksha meteorological station (26 m asl), and (right) temporal source scenario. Figure 18, page 67 Gaussian (left) and original (right) 2-d probability density functions. Figure 19, page 67 2-Dimensional field of the radionuclide concentration 25 hours after the Kola npp accident (Log 10 scale is applied). 3 Figure 20, page 68 Probabilistic map of the risk, where concentration exceeds the cmax = 0.005 Bq/m . Figure 21, page 76 Studied model domain surrounding the (left) Kola Gulf and (right) Kola npp. Figure 22, page 77 The vector velocity wind field at altitude of 50 m above the surface. Figure 23, page 77 Example of 137Cs surface deposition with the presence of the (left) “clean zone” near the Kirovsk city, and (right) significant pollution of the Khibiny foothills. Figure 24, page 78 137Cs surface deposition one day after accidental release with the precipitation: included (left) and excluded (right). Figure 25, page 79 (left) Magnitude of 137Cs surface pollution, Bq/m2; (right) Magnitude of the corresponding dose rate of external exposure for the critical man organs from the underlying surface, Sv/s. List of Figures 9 Figure 26, page 80 Probability of exceeding for the control level (in %) in the Kola npp (left) and Kola Gulf (right) regions. Figure 27, page 81 The knpp area map, probability of exceeding for the control level, and wind rose for the Yukspor weather station (in Khibiny). Figure 28, page 82 The icebreaker basing area map (Kola Gulf), probability of exceeding for the control level, and wind rose for the Murmansk weather station. Figure 29, page 113 Deposition of 137Cs (in Bq/m2) as a function of precipitation and release’s duration for an accident at the Kola npp.