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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. UNGOVERNED TERRITORIES Understanding and Reducing Terrorism Risks Angel Rabasa • Steven Boraz • Peter Chalk • Kim Cragin • Theodore W. Karasik Jennifer D. P. Moroney • Kevin A. O’Brien • John E. Peters Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release, distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Ungoverned territories : understanding and reducing terrorism risks / Angel Rabasa ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4152-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorism—Prevention—Case studies. 2. Political stability—Case studies. 3. Security, International. I. Rabasa, Angel. HV6431.U45 2007 363.325'17—dc22 2007023733 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Since the end of the Cold War, failed or failing states and ungoverned territories within otherwise viable states have become a more common international phenomenon. Many of the crises that have required intervention by U.S. or international forces were pro- duced by the collapse or absence of state authority. These ungoverned territories gen- erate all manner of security problems, such as civil conflict and humanitarian crises, arms and drug smuggling, piracy, and refugee flows. They threaten regional stability and security and generate demands on U.S. military resources. The problem of dealing with ungoverned areas has taken on increased urgency since 9/11, which demonstrated how terrorists can use sanctuaries in the most remote and hitherto ignored regions of the world to mount devastating attacks against the United States and its friends and allies. The objective of this RAND Corporation study is to understand the conditions that give rise to ungoverned territories and their effects on U.S. security interests and to develop strategies to improve the U.S. ability to mitigate these effects—in particular, to reduce the threat posed by terrorists operating within or from these territories. The study is based on an analysis of eight case studies. Our research approach is as follows: We first identify and analyze the attributes of ungoverned territories, which we refer to as “ungovernability,” on the basis of four variables. Second, since not all ungoverned territories are equally hospitable to terrorist and insurgent groups, we identify and analyze what we call “conduciveness to terrorist presence” on the basis of four other variables. Using this two-part framework, we next conduct a comparative analysis of the eight case studies. Finally, we derive the impli- cations of our analysis for the U.S. government, the Department of Defense, and the U.S. Air Force. In developing the methodology for this study, we entered somewhat of an ana- lytical terra incognita. There is a literature about failed states and civil conflict, and various analysts and policymakers have referred to ungoverned territories as a security problem. But to our knowledge, there has been no concerted effort to define and ana- lyze ungoverned territories as a category of security challenges. We hope that this work, iii iv Ungoverned Territories: Understanding and Reducing Terrorism Risks despite its flaws, will serve as a foundation for further research on this important but poorly understood phenomenon. This research was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Oper- ations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO), and conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a project entitled “Defeating Terrorists in Ungoverned Territories.” Research for this project was completed in December 2005. The book should be of value to the national security community and interested mem- bers of the general public, especially those with an interest in combating the blight of international terrorism. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE, a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Develop- ment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures ................................................................................................. xi Tables .................................................................................................xiii Summary ..............................................................................................xv Acknowledgments ................................................................................. xxv Abbreviations ......................................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Understanding Lack of Governance Angel Rabasa and John E. Peters ....................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................ 1 Methodology ........................................................................................... 2 CHAPTER TWO Dimensions of Ungovernability Angel Rabasa and John E. Peters ............................ 7 State Penetration into Society ........................................................................ 7 Monopoly on the Use of Force ....................................................................... 9 Control over Borders..................................................................................12 External Interference .................................................................................12 CHAPTER THREE Dimensions of Conduciveness Angel Rabasa and John E. Peters .............................15 Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access..............................................16 Sources of Income.....................................................................................16 Favorable Demographic and Social Characteristics...............................................17 Invisibility..............................................................................................19 CHAPTER FOUR Comparative Analysis of Case Studies Angel Rabasa and John E. Peters .................. 23 Dominant Characteristics of the Case Studies ................................................... 23 Toward a Typology of Ungoverned Territories ....................................................29 v vi Ungoverned Territories: Understanding and Reducing Terrorism Risks CHAPTER FIVE Conclusions and Recommendations John E. Peters and Jennifer Moroney..................33 Implications for the U.S. Government: Addressing Ungovernability...........................33