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Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC September 23, 2009 Fair Value Estimate: AED 2.56 RESULT UPDATE Recommendation:: Buy Share Data Market C ap A E D 10.0 bn Executive Summary P rice A E D 1.60 A bu Dhabi G eneral Index 3,100.05 The recent recovery in crude oil prices together with cost cutting Reuters TAQA.AD Bloomberg TAQA UH measures taken by Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) Avg. Volume (52 W eek) 5.2 mn should benefit operating performance. 52-W eek High/Low A E D 2.42 / 0.87 S hares O utstanding 6,225 mn The acquisition of a 90% stake in Fujairah Water and Electricity Fair Value Estimate AED 2.56 Company (FWEC) and capacity expansion plans in Morocco, will Rating BUY expand TAQA’s downstream asset portfolio, increasing its investments in stable revenue generating businesses. Key Figures Y ear to 31 Dec 2008A 2009E R ev enue (mn) 16,805.5 18,321.3 TAQA has signed an agreement to acquire DSM Energy, which E BIT DA (mn) 9,822.8 8,524.9 should increase its production by ~5,000boe/d. It has also Net P rofit (mn) 1,825.2 547.5 acquired two large land blocks covering 1,300sq km in the EPS (AED) 0.35 0.09 Horn River Basin of NE British Columbia in Canada, and four +/- (% ) 41.4% (75.0)% RoA (%) 2.4% 0.5% exploration blocks in the Northern North Sea from Royal Dutch R oE (% ) 28.8% 7.0% Shell and Exxon Mobil. P / E (x ) 2.9x 18.2x EV / EBITDA (x) 6.3x 8.3x Despite expected lower profitability this year compared to 2008, P / BV (x) 1.1x 1.4x TAQA’s balance sheet position should remain strong. The Company reported cash & cash equivalents of AED 5.1bn and Shareholding Pattern (% ) undrawn credit facilities of AED 7.9bn at the end of Q2 2009. A bu Dhabi W ater and E lectricity A uthor 51.1% F armers' F und 21.1% Outlook: TAQA’s downstream business should perform strongly P ublic & O thers 27.8% in coming quarters. Profitability within the upstream segment is Relative Performance likely to improve with crude oil and natural gas prices now showing signs of recovery. US oil and gasoline stockpiles fell by 4.0 0.4mn boe and 3mn boe, respectively in the week ended 3.0 August 28, 2009, a firm indication that demand-supply for 2.0 crude oil is improving. 1.0 0.0 Valuation: Our weighted average DCF and peer group multiple Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jun-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Nov-08 Sep-09 Sep-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 May-09 valuation yields an estimated fair value of AED 2.56, indicating Rebased Index TAQA an potential upside of 60.3% from the current market price of AED 1.6. We therefore maintain our Buy rating. ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY COMPANY PJSC ADCB Wealth Management Group I Research I +97126973525 | [email protected] 1 Industry Outlook We expect utility businesses to perform well despite the current adverse global business environment. The segment is price regulated providing stable return on investments. TAQA has particularly focussed on acquiring downstream assets in emerging economies including India and Morocco, where the current power deficit provides ample investment opportunities. Abu Dhabi’s mega planned projects and infrastructure developments will also require significant additions to domestic electricity generation and water desalination capacity in coming years. Prospects for mid- and up-stream businesses are also improving with crude and natural gas prices showing signs of recovery. US oil stockpiles decreased by 0.4mn boe to 343.4mn boe in the week ended August 28, 2009, while gasoline inventories fell by 3mn boe to 205.1 mn boe, reducing our concern that supply cutbacks might be unable to offset lower demand for oil. Given current early signs of a global economic recovery, we expect crude prices to stabilise in the near-term at around USD 70-75/b. We have assumed crude prices of approximately USD 70-75/b in FY10 and USD 75-80/b in the longer term. Investment Rationale Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) reported a 3.9% y-o-y decline in revenues in Q2 2009 to AED 4.4bn, mainly as a result of weaker crude and natural gas prices. Revenue from oil and gas activities (including gas storage and other revenue) declined 30% y-o-y to AED 1.8bn. Conversely, revenue from the company’s electricity and water business, excluding supplemental fuel, increased 14% y-o-y to AED 1.6bn, mainly due to the expansion of Taweelah B and revenue from the Red Oak toll acquired in December 2008. Profit after tax in Q2 2009 fell 45.4% y-o-y to AED 315mn, largely attributable to higher operating costs concerning Northern North Sea assets acquired in December 2008. However, the Company’s management has stated that its short-term focus lies in increasing efficiency and cutting costs. For example, in order to reduce expenses, the Company is currently negotiating contracts with suppliers regarding input prices. With oil prices having also recovered to ~USD 70/b, we expect TAQA’s profitability to improve in coming quarters. Expanding its downstream asset portfolio TAQA’s focus on growing its downstream assets both organically and inorganically, further increases our confidence in the Company’s stock. The announcement of the transfer of a 90% stake in Fujairah Water and Electricity Company (FWEC) by ADWEA to TAQA for AED 1.1bn strengthens the Company’s foothold in the stable domestic water and electricity business. FWEC owns a 60% stake in the Fujairah F2 plant, which currently has 2,000 MW of power capacity and 130 MGD of water desalination capacity under construction. Moreover, the Company has also won a contract to build two power plants in Morocco each of 350 MW. TAQA’s global gross generation capacity increased from 10,609 MW at the end of 2008 to 12,909 MW as of June 30, 2009, following its acquisition of a 50% equity stake in the Caribbean portfolio of Marubeni Corporation. As shown by TAQA’s Q2 2009 results, its downstream business provides the Company with much needed stability in current adverse business conditions. ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY COMPANY PJSC ADCB Wealth Management Group I Research I +97126973525 | [email protected] 2 Crude and natural gas prices hold the key – new acquisitions to yield increased production During the second quarter, the Company’s oil and gas production rose by 16.1% y-o-y to 138.2 mboe/d, largely due to the addition of North Sea assets in Q4 2008, resulting in a 166% increase in production by TAQA Bratani, up from 15.1mboe/d in Q2 2008 to 40.2mboe/d in Q2 2009. However, lower oil and gas price realizations, down 51% y-o-y to USD 37/b compared with USD 75/b in Q2 2008, more than offset the increase in production, while revenue from the upstream business fell 30% y-o-y to AED 1.8bn. Nevertheless, crude oil prices, after bottoming at USD 30.3/b in December, 2008, have rebounded to USD 70/b. We remain positive towards TAQA’s strategy of continuously increasing its reserve base by acquiring assets. The Company has already signed an agreement to acquire DSM Energie Holdings B.V. (DSM Energy) with the acquisition expected to complete in Q3 2009. Under the terms of the agreement, TAQA will acquire a non-operating interest in the pipeline company Noordgastransport B.V. as well as three other pipelines and 20 oil producing fields in the Dutch North Sea. These assets are expected to increase the average daily production of TAQA Energy by around 5,000boe/d. During the second quarter, TAQA North acquired two large land blocks covering 1,300sq km in the highly prospective Horn River Basin of NE British Columbia in Canada. In September, 2009, TAQA also acquired four exploration blocks in the Northern North Sea from Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil, the exploration acreages of which lie close to the interests acquired by TAQA Bratani in 2008. The company intends to commence drilling in these blocks in 2010 and has already acquired new seismic data for appraisal. Although the company has not provided any guidance on the value and potential of the new exploration block, it clearly represents an opportunity to enhance production capacity supported by the existing infrastructure. A healthy balance sheet to support growth TAQA’s liquidity remains strong with cash & cash equivalents of AED 5.1bn and undrawn credit facilities of AED 7.9bn at the end of Q2 2009. Even assuming capital expenditure (capex) exceeding AED 3bn in the third and fourth quarters of this year, we forecast cash & cash equivalents of AED 5.1bn at the end of 2009. Despite current very high gearing of 85.3% at the end of Q2 2009, TAQA will experience no refinancing concerns as a result of its near-term capex plans. Moreover, gearing is also exaggerated by equity depletion due to non-cash items including translation and derivative losses. Excluding their effect, the Company reported 80% gearing. TAQA has a long-term target to maintain a capital gearing ratio of 70%. Catalysts Increasing reserve base: During the past three years, TAQA has acquired over USD 2bn of North Sea assets as a part of its aggressive global expansion plan. The company has signed an agreement to acquire DSM Energy, which is expected to increase its total production capacity by 5,000b/d.
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