Market Insights & Strategy

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Market Insights & Strategy Market Insights & Strategy Global Markets Morning news summary th 8 July 2021 Global News • Fed keen to be 'well positioned' to act on inflation, other risks, minutes show; officials saw progress toward taper move: Federal Reserve officials last month felt substantial further progress on the US economic recovery "was generally seen as not having yet been met," but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialised, according to the minutes of the central bank's June policy meeting. The minutes showed a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment on account of less clear signal from incoming data. Several participants emphasised “that uncertainty around the economic outlook was elevated and that it was too early to draw firm conclusions about the paths of the labor market and inflation.” Still, "a substantial majority" of the officials saw inflation risks "tilted to the upside," and the Fed as a whole felt it needed to be prepared to act if those risks materialised. The minutes also showed that "various participants" felt conditions for reducing the central bank's asset purchases would be "met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated, but they were not ready to communicate a timeline due to high uncertainty on the economic outlook. “The committee’s standard of ‘substantial further progress’ was generally seen as not having yet been met, though participants expected progress to continue,” the minutes said. "Participants generally judged that, as a matter of prudent planning, it was important to be well positioned to reduce the pace of asset purchases, if appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including faster-than anticipated progress toward the Committee’s goals or the emergence of risks that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals," the FOMC minutes stated. Source: Reuters; Bloomberg • Fed discussed design for possible standing repo facility, minutes show: Federal Reserve officials continued to discuss in June how they could potentially structure a permanent facility for supporting US money markets, according to minutes from the central bank's last Rakesh Sahu policy meeting released on Wednesday. A "substantial majority" of Fed Director, Market Insights & Strategy policymakers reiterated their support for such a program, which would allow eligible financial institutions to borrow cash on a short-term basis Chavan Bhogaita as needed, saying "the potential benefits of such a facility outweighed Managing Director & Head of Market the potential costs," the minutes from the June 15-16 meeting stated. Insights & Strategy Several participants said the facility must be positioned as a "backstop" for markets, while some said it was important not to charge Please click here to view our recent a rate so high that the program would be stigmatised. In one plan publications on MENA and Global Markets presented to Fed officials, the facility would charge a minimum of 0.25% to firms borrowing cash overnight, the top of the target range Your attentionattention isis drawndrawn to to the the Impo Importantrtant Notice Notice for the Fed's overnight benchmark interest rate. Under that approach, on the finalfinal pagepage of of this this communication communication the facility would be open to primary dealers and then expanded later to include banks that were interested. 0.25% to firms borrowing cash overnight, the top of the target range for the Fed's overnight benchmark interest rate. Under that approach, the facility would be open to primary dealers and then expanded later to include banks that were interested. Several participants in the discussion said it could be appropriate to adjust the rate over time based on the economy or market conditions. The Fed began intervening in money markets in the fall of 2019 after reserves in the banking system fell too low, leading to a spike in short-term borrowing costs. Money markets were rocked again in March 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic led to a dash for cash, requiring the Fed to increase its repo offerings. In April, Fed officials discussed how having the support available through a permanent facility could allow the central bank to automatically respond to market pressures. Over the past several months, however, the Fed has been dealing with the opposite issue – an excess of cash in the banking system. Use of the Fed's reverse repo facility, which gives firms a place to temporarily park cash with the central bank, reached a record of $992bn on June 30. Source: Reuters • US job openings edge higher in May, hiring slips: US job openings rose slightly to a new record high in May, but hiring dipped, data showed on Wednesday. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, rose by 16,000 to 9.2 million on the last day of May, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast job openings would rise to 9.39 million in May. Vacancies were little changed and the job openings rate was unchanged at 6.0%. Hiring dipped to 5.9 million in May from 6.0 million in the prior month. The government reported last Friday that job growth accelerated in June, as US companies hired the most workers in 10 months, but unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in May. The JOLTS report also showed the number of people voluntarily leaving their employment in May fell to 3.6 million from 4.0 million in April, although quits levels still rose in the leisure and hospitality, and accommodation and food services sectors. The quits rate is usually seen as a barometer of job market confidence. People quitting their jobs now accounts for more than two-thirds of all job separations and remains well above pre-pandemic levels. Unfilled vacancies increased by 109,000 in other services and there were an additional 46,000 job openings in state and local government education. Vacancies declined in state and local government and the federal government Source: Reuters • ECB officials said to agree on new inflation goal of 2% and to allow it to overshoot; policy review outcome to be announced later today: European Central Bank policy makers have agreed to raise their inflation goal to 2% and allow room to overshoot it when needed, Bloomberg reported citing officials familiar with the matter. The decision marks a significant change from the previous target of “below, but close to, 2%,” which some policy makers felt was too vague. The consensus emerged at a special meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to conclude the ECB’s first strategy review in almost 20 years, Bloomberg reported. The revamped strategy could give officials the justification for sustaining ultra-loose monetary policy for longer as they strive to reverse years of below-target inflation, which have weighed on the euro area’s economic potential. It will also be crucial for guiding the central bank’s actions as the economy recovers from the pandemic. The official results of the review will be published at 1 p.m. on Thursday and ECB president Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference 90 minutes later. The ECB’s appraisal also covers a wide range of other policy issues including how to aid the fight against climate change, the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies, employment trends and globalisation. On climate change, the ECB looks almost certain to use its bank supervision arm to force companies to make greater climate-related disclosures. While inflation is already predicted to rise well above target toward the end of this year, Lagarde and her colleagues have repeatedly said they expect it to subside to below the goal in the medium term. Policy makers are expected to debate after the summer how to exit emergency measures that include an exceptionally flexible €1.85tn ($2.2tn) bond-buying program. Source: Bloomberg 2 • Asian stocks fall, while dollar near three-month high, yields steady amid Fed’s taper debate; Oil steady while investors weigh delta virus spread: Asian stocks slipped Thursday, while dollar traded near its highest in three months and bonds held an advance amid concerns China’s economic rebound may be peaking and as traders digested Federal Reserve minutes indicating a plan for tapering stimulus may be edging closer. Hong Kong Hang Seng index led the loss in Asia as it was down 2% as of 8.20am GST. China’s blue-chips CSI 300 index fell 0.7% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was down 0.7%. South Korea’s Kospi index was down 0.7%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed. The S&P 500 futures were fell 0.2% in Asia, after the index rose 0.3% overnight. The DXY dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rivals, held its ground at 92.747, up 0.1% from Wednesday, when it touched 92.844 for the first time since April 5. The dollar traded at $1.1795 per euro , just off a three-month peak of $1.17815 touched overnight, when German data raised doubts about the strength of Europe's economic recovery. The dollar traded 0.1% lower against the yen at 110.53, as the pair continued to be weighed down by a slide in US Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.319% on Thursday in Asia after dipping to a low of 1.295% overnight for the first time since mid-February. The 30-year Treasury yield was at 1.930% after a touching a low of 1.917% overnight. Oil was steady near $72 a barrel as concern over the delta coronavirus variant rose, and traders waited decision from the OPEC+ group on its output policy.
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