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September 2018 #48 ______

Does Pre-Season Buzz Really Matter? By Steve Sternberg

The broadcast networks traditionally unveil their fall schedules in May. Pundits and entertainment news outlets begin predicting new season hits and misses soon thereafter, and the networks start promoting their new series throughout the summer.

Ad-supported cable networks tend to debut much of their new original scripted series between June and August (when the broadcast networks air mostly repeats, reality, and limited-run series), although some new shows do premiere in the fall and winter as well.

Streaming services, such as Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, and CBS All Access, don’t adhere to traditional concepts of seasons, and drop new series whenever they are ready to go, or simply when they think it is the best time to do so.

Some TV shows generate a considerable amount of buzz before they premiere, while others fly under the radar. This raises some obvious questions. Exactly how much does pre-season buzz really matter? Does it matter more for certain types of shows than for others? Does it matter more for broadcast or cable series? Does it matter more for one network versus another? How have the sources, level, and impact of buzz changed over the years?

A number of new series with strong pre-season buzz have become instant successes (such as Desperate Housewives, The Walking Dead, Better Call Saul, and This is Us), while others have failed to find an audience (see Bionic Woman, Flash Forward, The Bastard Executioner, and Pitch). Many A Sternberg Report sponsored message

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______others, received little pre-season notice and yet became long-running hits (e.g., NCIS, Grey’s Anatomy, Sons of Anarchy, and Rizzoli & Isles).

Networks and studios send reps to the big July pop-culture Comic-Con event in San Diego, where series stars and producers join panels geared to generating pre-season buzz among hardcore fans, which their publicity machines try to make sure will spill over to the general public. In recent years, Netflix shows (such as Stranger Things and Marvel’s street-level heroes – Jessica Jones, Luke Cage, Daredevil, Iron Fist, The Punisher), as well as shows from Amazon Prime Video and Hulu, and CBS All Access’s Star Trek Discovery, along with returning ad-supported and premium cable hits (such as The Walking Dead, Legion, Game of Thrones, and Westworld), have been receiving the most buzz at these events. Anything related to superheroes or sci-fi also get a significant amount of buzz.

Stars of returning and new series also show up at the various smaller comic cons across the country throughout the year (although more stars from cable than broadcast series attend those). The New York Comic Con takes place in October, and is starting to rival the San Diego event in size and the number of all-star panels.

Here’s a brief rundown of the major TV show related panels and presentations at this year’s San Diego Comic Con. While the production studios typically host these events, I’m listing them based on the network or streaming service that airs them:

San Diego Comic Con 2018 TV Panels CBS Big Bang Theory, Magnum P.I. CW Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, DC’s Legends of Tomorrow, Black Lighning, Supergirl, The Flash, Arrow, Riverdale, Charmed (new), Legacies (new) FOX The Simpsons, Bob’s Burgers, Family Guy, The Gifted, The Orville NBC Brooklyn Nine Nine, The Good Place, Midnight, Texas, Manifest (new) ADSM Robot Chicken AMC Better Call Saul, Breaking Bad (10th anniversary), The Walking Dead, Fear the Walking Dead, Preacher Audience Mr. Mercedes BBCA Dr. Who Freeform Marvel’s Cloak and Dagger, Siren

______San Diego Comic Con 2018 TV Panels FX Legion, Mayans M.C. (new) FXX Archer History Vikings, Project Blue Book (new) SYFY Krypton, The Magicians, Nightflyers (new), Deadly Class (new) TBS American Dad USA Mr. Robot, The Purge (new) HBO Westworld Amazon Prime The Man in the High Castle, Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan (new), Video Previews (new) CBS All Access Star Trek Discovery, Twilight Zone (new) Hulu Castle Rock Netflix Marvel’s Iron Fist, The Defenders, Lost in Space, Disenchantment (new)

Here’s a brief rundown of the major TV show related panels and presentations currently slated for the upcoming New York Comic Con (more may be added after this writing):

New York Comic Con 2018 TV Panels (planned) CW Riverdale, The 100, Charmed (new), Roswell, New Mexico (new), Legacies (new) FOX The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Gifted, The Orville, Gotham, The Passenger (new) NBC Blindspot, Midnight, Texas, Manifest (new) BBCA Dr. Who FXX Archer History Project Blue Book (new) NatGeo Mars Nickelodeon Rise of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles TBS American Dad TRUTV Impractical Jokers IFC Stan Against Evil Starz Outlander, American Gods CBS All Access Star Trek Discovery DC Universe Titans (new) Hulu Marvel’s Runaways, The Handmaid’s Tale, Future Man

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New York Comic Con 2018 TV Panels (planned) Netflix Big Mouth, Marvel’s Daredevil, The Umbrella Academy (new), The Haunting of Hill House (new), Chilling Adventures of Sabrina (new), Dark Crystals (new), The Age of Innocence (new) YouTube Prem. Origin (new)

Syndicated news magazine series such as Entertainment Tonight, Extra, and Access Hollywood, along with printed newspapers and magazines like Entertainment Weekly, used to be the main sources of new series promotion and buzz. I was once among the pundits appearing on Entertainment Tonight every year discussing my agency’s projected new season hits (when I was head of TV Research at Bozell, TN Media, and Magna Global). My reports, as well as others from my agency peers would also be quoted in the consumer and trade printed press (New York Times, USA Today, TV Guide, Ad Age, Broadcasting & Cable, etc.). Over the past decade, social media has become a key component in promoting new series as well. Online chatter ensues, and a handful of series are anointed as the most buzz-worthy.

It is interesting, and perhaps counter-intuitive that over the past 15 or 20 years, the success rate of all new broadcast television series has been essentially the same as those that generated the most pre-season buzz, roughly 30%. It’s also interesting to note that of all the series that have succeeded during the same period, roughly two-thirds did not receive a significant amount of pre-season buzz.

Pre-season buzz seems to have more of an impact on cable series, primarily because there are fewer of them and their ratings threshold for success is significantly lower than the broadcast networks. Since 2001, about 60% of the most buzzed about new ad-supported cable shows became successful.

There are several reasons, however, why pre-season buzz has little impact on whether or not a new broadcast series becomes successful:

• Despite the fact that their audiences tend to skew older, newspapers and syndicated entertainment news magazine shows focus more on the younger, sexier series, rather than on shows their own viewers are actually most likely to watch. This has started to change over the past few seasons.

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• Except for CW, the average median age of the typical broadcast series is over 50. This is not necessarily the same audience that is buzzing the most about new series online. We have seldom seen non-super hero CBS shows get as much pre-season buzz other networks, but it has had the more new series success than any other network over the past 15 years.

• Internet and comic-con buzz is often heavily skewed toward sci-fi and super-hero series or shows with former sci-fi stars attached. Except for CW super hero shows, most broadcast shows in this category tend not to live up to the hype. Cable networks have traditionally had more success in this area.

• Most social-media-based pre-season buzz comes from people who might have seen a trailer online, but have not seen the full pilot and don’t know if the show is actually any good.

• People who discuss new shows online are not necessarily going to watch them on television – particularly if the series is scheduled opposite one of their favorites. This remains true even in today’s DVR, streaming video, time-shifted world (how much longer this continues to be true remains to be seen).

• The impact of social media outlets, such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Snapchat, is less clear at this point. There does seem to be some correlation with big-event programming – major sports or political events, award shows, season finales, etc. But social media is currently more predictive of shows that are already on, rather than new series. Chatter about shows people have already been watching, or have recently discovered, might provide an indication of whether a show is poised to grow or decline. Social media’s impact on new series performance of scripted regular series, however, has been nominal at best.

Over the past 15 years, some of the most successful series received little pre-season attention. These include, Without a Trace, Nip/Tuck (2002/03), NCIS, Two and a Half Men (2003/04), Lost, Grey’s Anatomy, House, The Closer (2004/05), Criminal Minds, How I Met Your Mother, Bones, Psych (2005/06), 30 Rock, Mad Men, Army Wives, Burn Notice (2006/07), The Big Bang Theory, Breaking Bad, In Plain Sight (2007/08), The Mentalist, Castle, Sons of Anarchy, Justified, Warehouse 13, Leverage, Royal Pains (2008/09), Modern Family, The Good Wife, Rizzoli & Isles, White Collar (2009/10), Hawaii Five-O, Blue Bloods, Hell on Wheels, Falling Skies (2010/11), Scandal, Person of 5 ______The Sternberg Report ©2018

______Interest, American Horror Story (2011/12), Chicago Fire, The Americans (2012/13), Chicago P.D., The Last Ship (2013/14), Scorpion, Blackish, Empire (2014/15), Quantico, Into the Badlands, Queen of the South, The Outsiders, Underground (2015/16), Kevin Can Wait, Bull, Lethal Weapon, The Sinner (2016/17), The Good Doctor, Seal Team, SWAT (2017/18).

Who remembers Push Nevada, Firefly (2002/03), Coupling, Miss Match, Line of Fire (2003/04), Joey, LAX, Jack & Bobby (2004/05), Commander in Chief (2005/06), Studio 60 (2006/07), Pushing Daisies, Bionic Woman, Lipstick Jungle (2007/08), Dollhouse, 90210 (2008/09) Flash Forward (2009/10), Lone Star (2010/11), Charlie’s Angels, Terra Nova (2011/12), 666 Park Avenue (2012/13), The Crazy Ones, Michael J. Fox Show (2013/14), Constantine (2014/15), The Muppets, Heroes Reborn, The Bastard Executioner (2015/16), Pitch (2016/17), or Marvel’s Inhumans (2017/18)? They were among the most heavily buzzed shows right before their respective seasons. None made it to season two.

Evaluating series with the most pre-season buzz and whether a show is a success is, of course, somewhat objective (except for the instant blockbusters). You might quibble with a few of my entries. Cable series have much lower audience thresholds of success than those on the broadcast networks, and tend to be given more time to build an audience. Should a show like Mad Men, which never had strong ratings be called a success? Well, it was on for seven seasons, won multiple Emmys and had a major impact on the medium. But the way you need to look at the impact of pre-season buzz is not whether the show lasts a long time or is eventually successful. It only matters how the show performs and impacts its host network during its first season. Mad Men still qualifies in that it was critically acclaimed, performed better than the network’s average programming, and was instrumental in effectively and positively re-branding the network.

So why do I not include a show like ABC’s The Middle? During its first season its ratings were modest, and it would not have survived if not for its Modern Family lead-in. Mr. Robot (USA) did not make the cut because its hype and critical acclaim have not translated into good ratings, which, unless you are in the business, you probably wouldn’t know from the press coverage. Supergirl did well after moving from CBS to CW– but despite being among the CBS’s top-10 rated series, it was essentially canceled by the network.

I’ve been analyzing the television business for more than 30 years, and wrote annual TV Fall Preview reports for my company’s staff, advertiser clients, and the press. I was able to refer to all of them while writing this piece (in addition to my own recollections from each season).

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The chart on the following pages shows new ad-supported original scripted series on broadcast and cable since 2001 and compares the shows that received the most pre-season buzz to those that were actually successful during their initial season.

Going into the 2018-19 primetime TV season, I’m listing several shows as receiving the most buzz. But there does seem to be less enthusiastic buzz for ad-supported new series over the past couple of seasons than any in recent memory. This could be because there is so much fast-forwarding through commercials that many people aren’t seeing the promos and have no idea what’s coming on this fall, or it could be that there are so many original scripted series on cable and streaming services during the summer that most people don’t focus on the new broadcast season as early as they once did. Nevertheless, this lack of buzz does not mean there won’t be successful new series. Just as heavy buzz does not correlate with success, lack of buzz does not correlate with failure.

Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2001/02 Bob Patterson (ABC) The Guardian (CBS) Philly (ABC) Crossing Jordan (NBC) Emeril (NBC) 24 (FOX) Watching Ellie (NBC) Smallville (WB) 24 (FOX) Enterprise (UPN) Smallville (WB) The Shield (FX) Monk (USA)

2002/03 8 Simple Rules (ABC) CSI: Miami (CBS) Push Nevada (ABC) Without a Trace (CBS) CSI: Miami (CBS) Still Standing (CBS) Boomtown (NBC) Half and Half (UPN) Girls Club (FOX) Firefly (FOX) Everwood (WB) Nip/Tuck (FX)

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Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2003/04 Line of Fire (ABC) NCIS (CBS) Coupling (NBC) Two and a Half Men (CBS) Whoopi (NBC) Cold Case (CBS) Miss Match (NBC) Las Vegas (NBC) Skin (FOX) The O.C. (FOX) Arrested Development (FOX) One Tree Hill (WB) Tarzan and Jane (WB)

Rescue Me (FX) Rescue Me (FX) The 4400 (USA) The 4400 (USA) Stargate Atlantis (Syfy)

2004/05 Desperate Housewives (ABC) Desperate Housewives (ABC) CSI: NY (CBS) Lost (ABC) LAX (NBC) Grey’s Anatomy (ABC) Law & Order: Trial By Jury (NBC) Boston Legal (ABC) Father of the Pride (NBC) CSI: NY (CBS) Joey (NBC) Numb3ers (CBS) Jack and Bobby (WB) The Office (NBC) Medium (NBC) House (FOX) American Dad (FOX)

Battlestar Galactica (SyFy) Battlestar Galactica (Syfy) The Closer (TNT)

2005/06 Commander in Chief (ABC) Criminal Minds (CBS) New Adv. Of Old Christine (CBS) Ghost Whisperer (CBS) My Name is Earl (NBC) How I Met Your Mother (CBS) Prison Break (FOX) Bones (FOX) Everybody Hates Chris (UPN) Prison Break (FOX) Supernatural (WB) Everybody Hates Chris (UPN)

Kyle XY (ABC Family) Eureka (SyFy) Psych (USA)

2006/07 Ugly Betty (ABC) Ugly Betty (ABC) The Nine (ABC) Brothers and Sisters (ABC) Jericho (CBS) Heroes (NBC) Heroes (NBC) 30 Rock (NBC) Friday Night Lights (NBC) Studio 60 (NBC) Mad Men (AMC) Damages (FX) Army Wives (Lifetime) Saving Grace (TNT) Saving Grace (TNT) Burn Notice (USA)

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Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2007/08 Private Practice (ABC) Private Practice (ABC) Cavemen (ABC) The Big Bang Theory (CBS) Pushing Daisies (ABC) Gossip Girl (CW) Cane (CBS) Bionic Woman (NBC) Lipstick Jungle (NBC) Back to You (FOX) Gossip Girl (CW) Secret Life of an Amer. Teen (AFAM) Breaking Bad (AMC) Law & Order: Criminal Intent (USA) In Plain Sight (USA)

2008/09 My Own Worst Enemy (NBC) Castle (ABC) Dollhouse (FOX) The Mentalist (CBS) Fringe (FOX) Fringe (FOX) 90210 (CW) Sons of Anarchy (FX) Justified (FX) Warehouse 13 (Syfy) Leverage (TNT) Royal Pains (USA)

2009/10 Flash Forward (ABC) Modern Family (ABC) Private Practice (ABC) Rookie Blue (ABC) NCIS: LA (CBS) NCIS: LA (CBS) Glee (FOX) The Good Wife (CBS) Melrose Place (CW) The Mentalist CBS) Vampire Diaries (CW) Glee (FOX) Vampire Diaries (CW)

Men of a Certain Age (TNT) Drop Dead Diva (Lifetime) Southland (TNT) Hot in Cleveland (TV Land) Hot in Cleveland (TV Land) Rizolli & Isles (TNT) White Collar (USA)

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Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2010/11 No Ordinary Family (ABC) Hawaii Five-O (CBS) Hawaii Five-O (CBS) Mike & Molly (CBS) $#*! My Dad Says (CBS) Blue Bloods (CBS) Law & Order: LA (NBC) Raising Hope (FOX) Outlaw (NBC) Lone Star (FOX)

The Walking Dead (AMC) The Walking Dead (AMC) The Killing (AMC) Hell on Wheels (AMC) Louie (FX) Portlandia (IFC) Awkward (MTV) Teen Wolf (MTV) Franklin & Bash (TNT) Falling Skies (TNT) Covert Affairs (USA)

2011/12 Charlie’s Angels (ABC) Once Upon a Time (ABC) Once Upon a Time (ABC) Scandal (ABC) Revenge (ABC) 2 Broke Girls (CBS) GCB (ABC) Person of Interest (CBS) Pan Am (ABC) New Girl (FOX) Terra Nova (FOX) Touch (FOX) New Girl (FOX) Smash (NBC) Up All Night (NBC) The Playboy Club (NBC) Ringer (CW) Always Sunny in Phila. (FX) Major Crimes (TNT) American Horror Story (FX) Flashpoint (ION) Major Crimes (TNT) Perception (TNT)

2012/13 Nashville (ABC) Nashville (ABC) 666 Park Avenue (ABC) Elementary (CBS) Go On (NBC) Under the Dome (CBS) Revolution (NBC) The Following (FOX) Arrow (CW) Chicago Fire (NBC) Beauty & The Beast (CW) Arrow (CW)

Bates Motel (A&E) Bates Motel (A&E) The Americans (FX) Vikings (History) Devious Maids (Life) Defiance (Syfy)

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Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2013/14 Marvel Agents of Shield (ABC) Marvel Agents of Shield (ABC) Once Upon…Wonderland (ABC) The Goldbergs (ABC) Super Fun Night (ABC) Mom (CBS) The Crazy Ones (CBS) 24: Live Another Day (FOX) Hostages (CBS) Brooklyn Nine Nine (FOX) Extant (CBS) Sleepy Hollow (FOX) 24: Live Another Day (FOX) The Blacklist (NBC) Sleepy Hollow (FOX) Chicago PD (NBC) The Blacklist (NBC) Night Shift (NBC) Michael J. Fox Show (NBC) Originals (CW)

Fargo (FX) Fargo (FX) The Strain (FX) Tyrant (FX) The Last Ship (TNT) Murder in the First (TNT)

2014/15 How to Get Away - Murder (ABC) How to Get Away - Murder (ABC) Marvel’s Agent Carter (ABC) Blackish (ABC) Gotham (FOX) Madam Secretary (CBS) Constantine (NBC) NCIS: New Orleans (CBS) The Flash (CW) Scorpion (CBS) Gotham (FOX) Empire (FOX) Mysteries of Laura (NBC) The Flash (CW)

Better Call Saul (AMC) Better Call Saul (AMC) Mr. Robot (USA) Scream (MTV) The Librarians (TNT) Murder in the First (TNT)

2015/16 The Muppets (ABC) Quantico (ABC) Scream Queens (FOX) Life in Pieces (CBS) The X-Files (FOX) The X-Files (FOX) Heroes Reborn (NBC) Blindspot (NBC) Blindspot (NBC) Shades of Blue (NBC) DC Legends of Tomorrow (CW) DC Legends of Tomorrow (CW)

Fear the Walking Dead (AMC) Fear the Walking Dead (AMC) Preacher (AMC) Into the Badlands (AMC) The Bastard Executioner (FX) Animal Kingdom (TNT) Animal Kingdom (TNT) Queen of the South (USA) Underground (WGNA)

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Pre-Season Buzz vs. Success Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2016/17 Designated Survivor (ABC) Designated Survivor (ABC) Prison Break (FOX) Kevin Can Wait (CBS) The Exorcist (FOX) Bull (CBS) Pitch (FOX) MacGyver (FOX) This is Us (NBC) Lethal Weapon (FOX) Timeless (NBC) This is Us (NBC) The Good Place (NBC) The Good Place (NBC)

Atlanta (FX) Atlanta (FX) Legion (FX) Legion (FX) Falling Water (USA) Taboo (FX) The Sinner (USA)

2017/18 Marvel’s Inhumans (ABC) The Good Doctor (ABC) Roseanne (ABC) Roseanne (ABC) Young Sheldon (CBS) Young Sheldon (CBS) Will & Grace (NBC) Seal Team (CBS) The Gifted (FOX) S.W.A.T. (CBS) Ghosted (FOX) Will & Grace (NBC) The Orville (FOX) The Orville (FOX)

Krypton (SYFY) Yellowstone (Par)

2018/19 A Million Little Things (ABC) The Rookie (ABC) Murphy Brown (CBS) Manifest (NBC) Charmed (CW) Legacies (CW)

Mayans MC (FDX) The Purge (USA) Programs in bold and red were in both categories

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