September 2018 #48 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ Does Pre-Season Buzz Really Matter? By Steve Sternberg The broadcast networks traditionally unveil their fall schedules in May. Pundits and entertainment news outlets begin predicting new season hits and misses soon thereafter, and the networks start promoting their new series throughout the summer. Ad-supported cable networks tend to debut much of their new original scripted series between June and August (when the broadcast networks air mostly repeats, reality, and limited-run series), although some new shows do premiere in the fall and winter as well. Streaming services, such as Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, and CBS All Access, don’t adhere to traditional concepts of seasons, and drop new series whenever they are ready to go, or simply when they think it is the best time to do so. Some TV shows generate a considerable amount of buzz before they premiere, while others fly under the radar. This raises some obvious questions. Exactly how much does pre-season buzz really matter? Does it matter more for certain types of shows than for others? Does it matter more for broadcast or cable series? Does it matter more for one network versus another? How have the sources, level, and impact of buzz changed over the years? A number of new series with strong pre-season buzz have become instant successes (such as Desperate Housewives, The Walking Dead, Better Call Saul, and This is Us), while others have failed to find an audience (see Bionic Woman, Flash Forward, The Bastard Executioner, and Pitch). Many A Sternberg Report sponsored message The best new Fall series: ABC – A Million Little Things, The Kids Are Alright, Single Parents; CBS – Murphy Brown, The Neighborhood; NBC – I Feel Bad, Manifest; FOX – Rel. Check out sternbergreport.com for evaluation of all new fall pilots. To advertise here, contact [email protected] _ The Sternberg Report ©2018 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ others, received little pre-season notice and yet became long-running hits (e.g., NCIS, Grey’s Anatomy, Sons of Anarchy, and Rizzoli & Isles). Networks and studios send reps to the big July pop-culture Comic-Con event in San Diego, where series stars and producers join panels geared to generating pre-season buzz among hardcore fans, which their publicity machines try to make sure will spill over to the general public. In recent years, Netflix shows (such as Stranger Things and Marvel’s street-level heroes – Jessica Jones, Luke Cage, Daredevil, Iron Fist, The Punisher), as well as shows from Amazon Prime Video and Hulu, and CBS All Access’s Star Trek Discovery, along with returning ad-supported and premium cable hits (such as The Walking Dead, Legion, Game of Thrones, and Westworld), have been receiving the most buzz at these events. Anything related to superheroes or sci-fi also get a significant amount of buzz. Stars of returning and new series also show up at the various smaller comic cons across the country throughout the year (although more stars from cable than broadcast series attend those). The New York Comic Con takes place in October, and is starting to rival the San Diego event in size and the number of all-star panels. Here’s a brief rundown of the major TV show related panels and presentations at this year’s San Diego Comic Con. While the production studios typically host these events, I’m listing them based on the network or streaming service that airs them: San Diego Comic Con 2018 TV Panels CBS Big Bang Theory, Magnum P.I. CW Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, DC’s Legends of Tomorrow, Black Lighning, Supergirl, The Flash, Arrow, Riverdale, Charmed (new), Legacies (new) FOX The Simpsons, Bob’s Burgers, Family Guy, The Gifted, The Orville NBC Brooklyn Nine Nine, The Good Place, Midnight, Texas, Manifest (new) ADSM Robot Chicken AMC Better Call Saul, Breaking Bad (10th anniversary), The Walking Dead, Fear the Walking Dead, Preacher Audience Mr. Mercedes BBCA Dr. Who Freeform Marvel’s Cloak and Dagger, Siren 2 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2018 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ San Diego Comic Con 2018 TV Panels FX Legion, Mayans M.C. (new) FXX Archer History Vikings, Project Blue Book (new) SYFY Krypton, The Magicians, Nightflyers (new), Deadly Class (new) TBS American Dad USA Mr. Robot, The Purge (new) HBO Westworld Amazon Prime The Man in the High Castle, Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan (new), Video Previews (new) CBS All Access Star Trek Discovery, Twilight Zone (new) Hulu Castle Rock Netflix Marvel’s Iron Fist, The Defenders, Lost in Space, Disenchantment (new) Here’s a brief rundown of the major TV show related panels and presentations currently slated for the upcoming New York Comic Con (more may be added after this writing): New York Comic Con 2018 TV Panels (planned) CW Riverdale, The 100, Charmed (new), Roswell, New Mexico (new), Legacies (new) FOX The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Gifted, The Orville, Gotham, The Passenger (new) NBC Blindspot, Midnight, Texas, Manifest (new) BBCA Dr. Who FXX Archer History Project Blue Book (new) NatGeo Mars Nickelodeon Rise of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles TBS American Dad TRUTV Impractical Jokers IFC Stan Against Evil Starz Outlander, American Gods CBS All Access Star Trek Discovery DC Universe Titans (new) Hulu Marvel’s Runaways, The Handmaid’s Tale, Future Man 3 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2018 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ New York Comic Con 2018 TV Panels (planned) Netflix Big Mouth, Marvel’s Daredevil, The Umbrella Academy (new), The Haunting of Hill House (new), Chilling Adventures of Sabrina (new), Dark Crystals (new), The Age of Innocence (new) YouTube Prem. Origin (new) Syndicated news magazine series such as Entertainment Tonight, Extra, and Access Hollywood, along with printed newspapers and magazines like Entertainment Weekly, used to be the main sources of new series promotion and buzz. I was once among the pundits appearing on Entertainment Tonight every year discussing my agency’s projected new season hits (when I was head of TV Research at Bozell, TN Media, and Magna Global). My reports, as well as others from my agency peers would also be quoted in the consumer and trade printed press (New York Times, USA Today, TV Guide, Ad Age, Broadcasting & Cable, etc.). Over the past decade, social media has become a key component in promoting new series as well. Online chatter ensues, and a handful of series are anointed as the most buzz-worthy. It is interesting, and perhaps counter-intuitive that over the past 15 or 20 years, the success rate of all new broadcast television series has been essentially the same as those that generated the most pre-season buzz, roughly 30%. It’s also interesting to note that of all the series that have succeeded during the same period, roughly two-thirds did not receive a significant amount of pre-season buzz. Pre-season buzz seems to have more of an impact on cable series, primarily because there are fewer of them and their ratings threshold for success is significantly lower than the broadcast networks. Since 2001, about 60% of the most buzzed about new ad-supported cable shows became successful. There are several reasons, however, why pre-season buzz has little impact on whether or not a new broadcast series becomes successful: • Despite the fact that their audiences tend to skew older, newspapers and syndicated entertainment news magazine shows focus more on the younger, sexier series, rather than on shows their own viewers are actually most likely to watch. This has started to change over the past few seasons. 4 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2018 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ • Except for CW, the average median age of the typical broadcast series is over 50. This is not necessarily the same audience that is buzzing the most about new series online. We have seldom seen non-super hero CBS shows get as much pre-season buzz other networks, but it has had the more new series success than any other network over the past 15 years. • Internet and comic-con buzz is often heavily skewed toward sci-fi and super-hero series or shows with former sci-fi stars attached. Except for CW super hero shows, most broadcast shows in this category tend not to live up to the hype. Cable networks have traditionally had more success in this area. • Most social-media-based pre-season buzz comes from people who might have seen a trailer online, but have not seen the full pilot and don’t know if the show is actually any good. • People who discuss new shows online are not necessarily going to watch them on television – particularly if the series is scheduled opposite one of their favorites. This remains true even in today’s DVR, streaming video, time-shifted world (how much longer this continues to be true remains to be seen). • The impact of social media outlets, such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Snapchat, is less clear at this point. There does seem to be some correlation with big-event programming – major sports or political events, award shows, season finales,