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February 2013 Trends March 201 Watchlist

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February 2013 Trends March 201 Watchlist A monthly bulletin by Crisis Group on current and potential conflicts around the world 115 1 March 2013 Board of Trustees Chair February 2013 Trends Thomas Pickering President and CEO Deteriorated Situations Improved Situations Louise Arbour Bangladesh (p.5) Tunisia (p.12) Vice-Chairs Guinea (p.4) Zimbabwe (p.3) Ayo Obe Lebanon (p.10) Ghassan Salamé North Korea (p.5) Executive Committee Syria (p.10) Morton Abramowitz Cheryl Carolus Maria Livanos Cattaui Unchanged Situations Yoichi Funabashi Afghanistan (p.5), Algeria (p.11), Armenia (p.8), Azerbaijan (p.8), Bahrain (p.10), Bosnia (p.7), Frank Giustra Burundi (p.2), Cameroon (p.2), Central African Republic (p.2), Chad (p.2), China/Japan (p.5), Mark Malloch-Brown Moisés Naím Colombia (p.9), Côte d’Ivoire (p.3), Cyprus (p.8), Democratic Republic of Congo (p.2), George Soros Ecuador (p.9), Egypt (p.11), Eritrea (p.2), Ethiopia (p.2), Georgia (p.8), Guatemala (p.9), Guinea- Pär Stenbäck Bissau (p.4), Haiti (p.9), India (non-Kashmir) (p.6), Indonesia (p.6), Iran (p.10), Iraq (p.11), Israel/ Occupied Palestinian Territories (p.9), Jordan (p.11), Kashmir (p.6), Kazakhstan (p.4), Kenya (p.2), Kofi Annan Kosovo (p.7), Kyrgyzstan (p.4), Libya (p.11), Macedonia (p.8), Madagascar (p.3), Mali (p.4), Nahum Barnea Samuel Berger Mauritania (p.11), Mexico (p.9), Moldova (p.8), Morocco (p.12), Myanmar (p.6), Nagorno-Karabakh Emma Bonino (Azerbaijan) (p.8), Nepal (p.6), Niger (p.4), Nigeria (p.4), North Caucasus (Russia) (p.8), Pakistan (p.6), Micheline Calmy-Rey Philippines (p.7), Rwanda (p.2), Saudi Arabia (p.11), Senegal (p.4), Somalia (p.3), Somaliland (p.3), Wesley Clark South Sudan (p.3), Sri Lanka (p.6), Sudan (p.3), Tajikistan (p.5), Thailand (p.7), Timor-Leste (p.7), Sheila Coronel Turkey (p.8), Uganda (p.3), Uzbekistan (p.5), Venezuela (p.9), Western Sahara (p.12), Yemen (p.11) Mark Eyskens Nabil Fahmy Lykke Friis Joschka Fischer Jean-Marie Guéhenno March 201 Watchlist Carla Hills Lena Hjelm-Wallén Conflict Risk Alerts Conflict Resolution Mo Ibrahim Igor Ivanov Yemen (p.11) Opportunities Asma Jahangir Wadah Khanfar Wim Kok Ricardo Lagos Joanne Leedom-Ackerman Lalit Mansingh Benjamin Mkapa CrisisWatch Laurence Parisot summarises briefly developments during the previous month summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers that Karim Raslan in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed have been published in the last month. Paul Reynolds alphabetically by region, providing references and links to Javier Solana more detailed information sources (all references mentioned CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research Liv Monica Stubholt are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our Lawrence Summers some 140 staff members across five continents, who already Wang Jisi assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, dur- report on some 60 of the situations listed here. Comments Wu Jianmin ing the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly and suggestions can be sent to [email protected]. Lionel Zinsou improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and Chairmen Emeriti is a particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict, resources page at www.crisisgroup.org. Martti Ahtisaari or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in George J. Mitchell some instances there may in fact be both); and President Emeritus Gareth Evans Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with some 140 staff members on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Crisis Group’s approach is grounded in field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high-level advocacy. Crisis Group is chaired by former U.S. Ambassador and Vice Chairman of Hills & Company Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour. rebels on implementation of March 2009 peace agreement. Africa Clash between rival M23 factions 24 Feb reportedly left 10 dead in Rutshuru region; M23 rebels 27 Feb accused leader Jean-Marie Runiga of treason and embezzlement, replaced Central Africa him with General Sultani Makenga. Several Mayi Mayi groups 9-17 Feb attacked villages close to Lubumbashi and Pweto, Burundi President of opposition National Council for Defence Katanga Province. Head of UN mission Meece 21 Feb told of Democracy (CNDD) 11 Feb announced plan to return UNSC of concern at re-emergence of armed groups, reported from exile; president of opposition Movement for Solidarity “worrisome security developments” in N Katanga. and Democracy (MSD) early Feb also announced intention to “African leaders sign DR Congo peace deal”, Al Jazeera, 25 Feb. 2013. return. Police 19 Feb used tear gas to disperse demonstration against imprisonment of journalist Hassan Ruvakuki, jailed Rwanda President Kagame 17 Feb tasked 3 senior Rwandan since Nov 2011; protests held again 26 Feb. UN office in Patriotic Front members with developing “transition formula” Burundi (BINUB) mid-Feb announced elections roadmap for end of his mandate in 2017, quelling rumours he will seek workshop to be held with govt and opposition 11-13 March. further term. Kagame 23 Feb signed DRC peace framework. BINUB mandate extended to Feb 2014. “Kagame welcomes the signing of DRC peace agreement”, Rwanda “Land issues keep possibility of conflict alive”, IndepthAfrica, 4 Feb. 2013. Focus, 24 Feb. 2013. Cameroon 7 French tourists abducted from Dabanga on border with Nigeria 19 Feb by suspected Nigerian militants; Horn of Africa captors demanded liberation of Islamist militants detained in Cameroon and Nigeria, declared war against France for Mali Eritrea President Afwerki 1 Feb declined to give customary intervention in video published 25 Feb. President Biya 27 Feb annual speech in coastal city Massawa for first time in 21 years; set long-delayed date for Senate polls for 14 April. 8 Feb broke silence over 21 Jan “mutiny”, said no reason to “French children kidnapped in Cameroon ‘shown in video’”, BBC, 26 Feb. worry. Arrests over incident continued early Feb. Information 2013. ministry 5 Feb banned Eritreans from providing information on mutiny and protests to Al Jazeera, subsequently blocked Central African Republic New transitional govt sworn in 3 Feb channel. Eritrean football team that defected in Dec 2012 given following several days of negotiations: strategic foreign, justice asylum in Uganda. and security ministries remain under control of President “The coup fiasco in Eritrea and its scanty support”, IndepthAfrica, 26 Feb. Bozizé ’s party; Seleka rebel group leader Michel Djotodia 2013. named defence minister. Rebels 25 Feb threatened to resume fighting if Bozizé fails to implement Jan Libreville peace Ethiopia Govt 5 Feb aired “Holy War Movement” documentary agreement. NGOs, UN mid-month reported ongoing violence, on Islamic extremism, included confessions by Muslim leaders displacement in areas under Seleka control including Bambari arrested Aug 2012 and currently on trial for leading peaceful town and Mobaye, from which some 10,000 reportedly fled protests; defence lawyer said confessions compelled by force. 7-13 Feb. Confinement of rebels to barracks scheduled to begin Some 90,000 Muslims protested 15 Feb outside Grand Anwar 24 Feb delayed due to logistics, dissent within Seleka. Bozizé 14 mosque against documentary amid fear film will prejudice Feb met with Chad President Deby on sidelines of Community trial, delegitimise peaceful Muslim demonstrations, stoke of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) summit (see Chad), religious discord. Rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front discussed security in CAR. 18 Feb warned Canada’s Africa Oil Corporation against “Central African Republic rebels threaten to resume fighting”, Reuters, 25 exploration in east, said area unsafe, operations should be Feb. 2013. halted until peace agreement with govt reached. “Rebels threaten Canadian oil company”, Sudan Tribune, 18 Feb. 2013. Chad West and Central African leaders 16 Feb met in N’Djamena at Sahel-Saharan regional CEN-SAD summit, Kenya Ahead of presidential polls scheduled for 4 March, High discussed regional security. Chad widely criticised for hosting Court 15 Feb ruled that only Supreme Court has jurisdiction ICC indictee Sudanese President Bashir at summit. President to decide eligibility of ICC indictees Uhuru Kenyatta and Déby 27 Feb called for urgent deployment of regional troops William Ruto to run, leaving both free to contest elections; to Mali. 6,000-strong police force suspended 4 Feb, police petition filed to bring issue before Supreme Court. Chief chief dismissed 6 Feb following investigation that revealed Justice Willy Mutunga 20 Feb said he, along with other judges irregularities including graft; Déby 14 Feb dismissed Interior and ambassadors, had received death threats signed “Mungiki and Public Security Minister and Minister of Territorial Veteran Group. Kenya Sovereignty Defence Squad” ahead of Administration, accused of favouritism. ruling. All 8 presidential candidates 11 Feb and 25 Feb took “Chad ministers fired after entire police force suspended”, Reuters, 15 part in televised debates following initial exclusion of Safina Feb. 2013. candidate Paul Muite and Alliance for Real Change candidate Mohammed Abduba Dida. AU envoy and former UNSG Kofi Democratic Republic of Congo Regional leaders 23 Feb signed Annan 23 Feb warned of election-related violence. Somali Peace Framework Agreement under auspices of UN, AU, militant group Al-Shabaab 27 Feb warned of “long, gruesome SADC and Great Lakes region; states agreed to abstain from war” ahead of elections.
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