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Concrete Steps to Break the Deadlocks in the South Caucasus

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Concrete Steps to Break the Deadlocks in the South Caucasus Band 2 / 2020 Band 2 / 2020 “Out of the box thinking” was on the agenda of the 20th Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) work- shop. After several workshops dealing with geopolitical issues, and a stock-taking workshop in 2018, the co-chairs re-directed attention to the need for practical, ground-based initiatives to foster greater stability at the grass-roots and community levels. Concrete Steps to Break Speakers from the region were required to concentrate on what outcomes and conditions could break the current deadlocks the Deadlocks in the South in moving towards peace and regional stability. Although dead- locks in South Caucasus conflict resolution were hardly broken, Caucasus fresh consensus emerged among participants inter alia on: commonly held interests being defined and leveraged as confi- dence building to facilitate rapprochement and eventually lead to conflict resolution; administrative and identity issues being maintained cleanly separated; and the need to fully de-politicize issues addressed by peacebuilding initiatives. Concrete Steps to Break the Deadlocks in South Caucasus to Steps Concrete ISBN: 978-3-903121-83-6 Frederic Labarre and George Niculescu (Eds.) 2/20 20th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus” (Eds.) Niculescu Labarre, Study Group Information Study Group Information Frederic Labarre George Niculescu (Eds.) Concrete Steps to Break the Deadlocks in the South Caucasus 20th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus” 2/2020 Vienna, March 2020 Imprint: Copyright, Production, Publisher: Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence Rossauer Lände 1 1090 Vienna, Austria Edited by: National Defence Academy Command Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Vienna, Austria In co-operation with: PfP Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany Study Group Information Copyright © Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence All rights reserved March 2020 ISBN 978-3-903121-83-6 Printing: ReproZ W 20-0891 Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Wien Disclaimer The following documents have been edited for syntax, length and coher- ence. The opinion found herein are those of their respective authors only and in no way represent that of the co-chairs, sponsors, PfP Consortium stakeholders or anyone having helped facilitate the hosting of the 20th workshop on Regional Stability in the South Caucasus, nor is the inclusion of articles and chapters into this publication an acknowledgement or en- dorsement of any opinion found therein by the co-chairs, sponsors or stakeholders of the PfP Consortium. The use of certain place names does not imply a particular status for said place, nor does it imply endorsement for any status, but merely the personal choice of the author owing to lin- guistic preferences. Table of Contents Preface George Niculescu and Frederic Labarre ...................................................................... 7 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................. 15 Abstract ................................................................................................................. 17 PART I: CONTEMPORARY AND HISTORICAL EXAMPLES ........... 19 The Solution of Frozen Territorial Conflicts — One Size Does Not Fit All! History Tells Us What Might Work and What Not. Michael Schmunk .................................................................................................... 21 The South Caucasus in the Foreign Policy of the Republic of Belarus Andrei Rusakovich .................................................................................................. 39 A Parcel, Not a Box: Western Policy Options and Conflict Resolution in the Caucasus Michael Cecire ......................................................................................................... 49 De Facto States in Eurasia Tomáš Hoch (transcribed by F. Labarre) ................................................................. 69 PART II: SCENARIOS FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION FOR ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN AND GEORGIA ............................................ 75 New Developments regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Stepan Grigoryan ..................................................................................................... 77 Mapping the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and Drivers for Resolution Scenarios Nilufer Narli ........................................................................................................... 85 Resolving Deadlocks in the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood: What Role for Peace Support Structures? Elkhan Nuriyev .................................................................................................... 111 5 PART III: SCENARIOS FOR SETTLING THE STATUS OF ABKHAZIA, SOUTH OSSETIA, NAGORNO-KARABAKH ............. 117 The Georgian Diaspora in Russia: Modern History and Prospects of Building Georgian-Russian Relations Georgy Turava ....................................................................................................... 119 The Transitional Period Framework for the Restoration of the Integrity of Armenian Statehood Hratchya Arzumanyan and Armine Arzumanyan ................................................ 131 How to Break the Deadlock (Speaking Notes) Vagif Jahangirov .................................................................................................... 149 From a Dead End to another Dead End in the Negotiations Process: What to Change to Achieve Peace in Nagorno-Karabakh Ahmad Alili and Vagif Jahangirov ....................................................................... 153 How Education in Abkhazia has been Affected by the Georgian-Abkhaz Conflict (Speaking Notes) Laura Taniia ........................................................................................................ 167 PART VI: SPECIAL CONTRIBUTION ..................................................... 171 Towards 2040: A View from the Diaspora on Emerging Geopolitics in the South Caucasus Alan Whitehorn .................................................................................................... 173 Epilogue Frederic Labarre .................................................................................................... 189 PART V: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................ 193 Policy Recommendations Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group ........................................... 195 List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................ 205 List of Authors and Editors ............................................................................. 207 6 Preface George Niculescu and Frederic Labarre This Study Group Information (SGI) booklet reflects the proceedings of the 20th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Se- curity Studies Institutes on “Concrete Steps to Break the Deadlocks in the South Caucasus”, held on 07-10 November 2019, at Chateau Rothschild, in Reichenau/Rax (Austria). A copy of the ensuing Policy Recommendations drawn up from the debates and agreed by workshop participants was also added at the end of this booklet. The Co-Chairs have also decided to in- clude an article written by a distinguished Canadian academic from the Royal Military College in Kingston (Ontario), Emeritus Professor Alan Whitehorn, on “Towards 2040: A View From the Diaspora On Emerging Geopolitics In The Caucasus”, which, although it was not presented at the RSSC SG20 workshop, it was deemed as a most valuable contribution to its debates. * * * The 20th RSSC SG workshop was meant to resume the program initiated under the guidance of the Austrian National Defence Academy, which aimed at opening up space for dialogue on ever-narrowing subjects that pose a challenge to constructive conflict resolution. This workshop exam- ined several aspects of each regional conflict, and leveraged the good rela- tionships built over the last several years among core RSSC SG participants to push original conflict resolution ideas farther. Some of these ideas have been voiced in earlier workshops. Some of the recommendations voiced by the RSSC SG have also been put in practice in the region. The co-chairs wanted to take advantage of this fragile momentum in regional stability in the South Caucasus to produce further realistic recommendations that were both creative as well as practical. To that end, the co-chairs have invited speakers to describe existing peace proposals or elicit original ones, to be debated and developed by the rest of the participants. Some proposals or 7 solutions may have been used to great effect in historical contexts outside of the South Caucasus. The intent was to propel and support thinking “out of the box” in providing concrete and constructive temporary or perma- nent solutions that might be perhaps contemplated by the decision makers in the region. The aim of this workshop was to achieve a series of constructive and con- crete roadmaps for each of the unresolved conflicts in the South Caucasus. These roadmaps were thought as forming the bulk of this workshop’s poli- cy recommendations. Interactive discussions have been devoted to explor- ing particular aspects of a conflict, especially those – such as the commit- ment to the non-use of force – that may be common to all conflicts in the region. Presentations, therefore,
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