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Italian Citizens Internal Migration A University of Sussex PhD thesis Available online via Sussex Research Online: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/ This thesis is protected by copyright which belongs to the author. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Please visit Sussex Research Online for more information and further details The impact of political and religious leaders on socio-economic outcomes Egidio Farina Submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Sussex September 2017 2 Declaration I hereby declare that this thesis has not been and will not be submitted in whole or in part to another University for the award of any other degree. Signature: Egidio Farina Declaration I hereby declare that my contribution to the chapter co-authored with Dr Vikram Pathania was substantial. I played a key role in conceiving the research question. The data used in this project were not publicly available and were only accessible from the regional headquarters of the Italian National Institute of Statistics. In order to develop our work, I needed to relocate to Italy to conduct the data analysis. All analysis was necessarily done there by me alone. Finally, I contributed substantially to the drafting of the paper. Signature: Egidio Farina 4 UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX Egidio Farina The impact of political and religious leaders on socio-economic outcomes Summary This thesis investigates how political or religious leaders have an impact on several socio-economic outcomes in two different countries, the United States and Italy. In the first empirical chapter I analyse how the race of a politician can have an impact on the incidence of crime. I answer this question by focusing on large US cities, where active participation in the political life of the African-American candidates has undergone a strong upsurge since 1965. In order to deal with the endogeneity of black candidates to city characteristics, a regression discontinuity is used, exploiting the multi-racial elections decided by a narrow margin of victory. The results show that the number of motor vehicles stolen increases considerably the year after the election of an African-American candidate. I investigate, as a possible channel of influence, how police employment responds to the election of a black mayor, finding a negative effect the year after the electoral race. The second empirical chapter studies how electoral outcomes can shape individu- als' migration decisions. Using the Italian mayoral elections data from 2001 to 2014, I study how foreign citizens' internal migration with a regular residency permit in North Italy can be affected by the election of a mayor affiliated to the Northern League (Lega Nord) party, a far-right political movement characterised by a strong federalist, populist and anti-immigration ideology. To deal with the endogeneity of the Northern League to city characteristics, a sharp regression discontinuity is used. Overall the results show that a mayor affiliated to the Northern League party causes an increase in the foreign out-migration rate one year after the election. The third empirical chapter investigates the impact of papal visits to Italian provinces on abortions and live births from 1979 to 2012. Using an event study methodology, we find a strong decrease in the number of abortions following papal visits. This effect commences at about the 3rd month and persists until about the 11th month after the visits. However, we find no significant change in the number of live births. We argue that a fall in the incidence of unplanned pregnancies best explains our results. This fall appears to be concentrated among married women, a demographic that shows the biggest jump in religiosity when the pope visits. 5 Acknowledgements I want to dedicate this thesis to my wife Michela and my son Attilio. Il mio cuore vi appartiene. Per sempre. Throughout my PhD I had the opportunity to learn a lot from the experience and the critical thinking of three talented researchers and supervisors: Dr. Paolo Masella, Prof. Andy McKay and Dr. Vikram Pathania. To them goes my profound gratitude for their constant support and guidance. I am also grateful to the Department of Economics for financial support in the form of a graduate teaching assistant scholarship (GTA) and the Teaching Fellowship scheme, which allowed me to gain teaching experience while developing my research. Thanks to my colleagues and friends at Sussex for walking the path together: Elsa, Edgar, Mimi, Rashaad & Samantha, Eva, Jorge, Amrita & Marco, Gabriele, Cecilia, Hector & Sarah, Matteo, Ani, Nihar, Antonia, Monika, Gustavo, Tsegay, Eugenia. A special thank goes to my friend, colleague and mentor Mattia, for sharing moments of joy and (all my) anxieties. I am grateful to Anna, Giuseppe and Serena for their encouragement.To my parents and my brothers for their love. 6 Contents List of Tables 9 List of Figures 12 1 Introduction 14 2 Politics and Crime in Black & White 18 2.1 Introduction . 18 2.2 Related Literature . 21 2.3 Data and Descriptive Statistics . 24 2.3.1 Election Data . 24 2.3.2 Crime Data . 25 2.3.3 Municipal Characteristics . 27 2.4 Empirical Strategy . 28 2.5 Results . 31 2.6 Discussion . 35 2.7 Robustness . 38 2.7.1 Crime Rates - Increasing the Number of Data Points . 38 2.7.2 Non-Parametric Estimator . 39 2.7.3 Mayor's Ethnicity vs Mayor's Race . 40 2.8 Conclusions . 42 3 They win, I leave: the impact of the Northern League party on foreign internal migration 43 7 3.1 Introduction . 43 3.2 Institutional Setting . 47 3.2.1 Electoral Law for Italian Municipalities . 47 3.2.2 The Northern League Party . 48 3.2.3 Foreign Population in Italy . 49 3.3 Data . 50 3.4 Empirical Strategy . 54 3.5 Effect on Foreign Internal Migration . 57 3.6 Further Analysis on Foreign Migration . 61 3.6.1 Effect on Neighbouring Cities . 61 3.6.2 Effect on Foreign International Migration . 62 3.7 Discussion . 63 3.7.1 Italian Citizenship Acquisitions . 63 3.7.2 Falsification Test - Italian Citizens Internal Migration . 65 3.8 Robustness . 66 3.8.1 Increasing the Data Points . 67 3.8.2 Breakthrough Elections . 68 3.8.3 Municipal Electoral Law . 69 3.8.4 Parametric Estimator . 70 3.9 Conclusions . 72 4 Papal Visits and Abortions - Evidence from Italy 74 4.1 Introduction . 74 4.2 Institutional Setting . 79 4.3 Data and Events . 84 4.4 Effect on Abortions . 86 4.5 Who Responds to the Papal Visits? . 90 4.6 Live-Births . 94 4.7 Discussion . 97 4.7.1 Religious Attitudes . 99 8 4.7.2 Possible factors influencing the papal visits . 101 4.7.3 Which Pope is more influential? . 103 4.8 Conclusions . 104 5 Conclusions 106 Bibliography 109 A Appendix to Chapter 2 121 B Appendix to Chapter 3 138 C Appendix to Chapter 4 145 9 List of Tables 2.1 Descriptive Statistics - Election sample . 25 2.2 Sample Representativeness . 27 2.3 Discontinuity in the Covariates. 30 2.4 RD estimates of the impact of black mayor on crime . 33 2.5 Impact of a black mayor police employment per 1,000 inhabitants - RD estimates . 36 2.6 Impact of black mayor on motor vehicle theft - two years . 38 2.7 Impact of a black mayor on motor vehicle theft - RD non-parametric estimates. 40 2.8 RD-estimates of the impact of an ethnic minority mayor on motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 inhabitants. 41 3.1 Descriptive Statistics - Election Data . 52 3.2 Descriptive Statistics - Municipal and Mayoral Characteristics . 53 3.3 Internal validity test - Discontinuity in the covariates . 56 3.4 RD estimates - The impact of NL mayors on foreign internal migration - unique bandwidth . 59 3.5 RD estimates - The impact of NL mayors on foreign internal migration - unique bandwidth . 60 3.6 RD estimates - The impact of NL mayors on foreign internal immig- ration - Neighbouring cities . 61 3.7 RD estimates - The impact of NL mayors on foreign international migration . 62 10 3.8 RD estimates - The impact of NL mayors on the rate of Italian cit- izenship acquisitions . 64 3.9 The Impact of NL mayors on internal migration - Italian citizens . 66 3.10 RD estimates - The Impact of NL mayors on foreign migration - first twoyears ................................. 67 3.11 RD estimates - The Impact of NL mayors on foreign migration - t+2 68 3.12 RD estimates - The Impact of NL mayors on foreign migration - breakthrough elections . 69 3.13 RD estimates - The impact of NL mayors on foreign internal migration - small municipalities . 70 3.14 RD estimates - The impact of NL mayors on foreign migration - parametric estimator . 71 4.1 Media Coverage . 82 4.2 Text analysis . 83 4.3 Descriptive Statistics - papal Visits . 84 4.4 Descriptive Statistics - Abortions (1979-2012) . 85 4.5 The impact of the papal Visits on Abortions - Quarterly . 87 4.6 Descriptive Statistics - Abortions (1979-2012) - Women's Demographics. 91 4.7 The impact of the papal Visits on Births - Quarterly . 96 4.8 The Impact of the papal Visits on Religiousness and Other Aspects of Daily Life . 101 4.9 Factors influencing the papal visits . 103 A.1 Violent Crimes per 1,000 inhabitants . 126 A.2 Property Crimes per 1,000 inhabitants . 127 A.3 Impact of a black mayor on the violent crime index per 1,000 inhab- itants.
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