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A c tiv ism o f A t h l e t e s : e re STENING ILR Sports Business Society - Fall 2016 - Volume IX, Issue 1 ILR Sports Business Society 2015-2016 For more information on Sports, Inc. or the ILR Sports Business Society, please contact Advisor Kevin Harris at [email protected]. Executive Board Magazine Staff Advisor Kevin Harris President Ethan Cramer Gibbs '17 Editor-in-Chief Karthik Sekharan '17 President of Magazine Karthik Sekharan '17 Layout Editor Sabrina Sm iths8 President of Radio President of Blog Writer Cal McKinney'20 VP of Events Writer Dan Kozek'20 Creative Director Writer Daniel Solomon "19 VP of Marketing Writer Harrison Marcus'20 VP of Finance Writer Madeleine Roglich '18 VP of Career Writer Sam Schwartz "18 Services Writer Scott Symons '19 VP o f Alum ni Writer Ben Gershenfeld '19 Affairs Ben Gilman '18 Director of Operations MattVani'19 y The ILR Sports Business Society, an independent student organization located at Cornell University, produced and is responsible for the content of this publication. This publica- > tion was not reviewed or approved by, nor does it necessarily express or reflect the policies or opinions of, Cornell University or its designated representatives. Volume IX, Issue 1: Fall 2016 Contents Moneyball on Ice? By Cal McKinney '20 Social Activism of Athletes: We're Listening By Madeleine Roglich '18 A Juiceless Proposal By Daniel Solomon '19 Beyond Nike: The Peculiar Cases of Novak Djokovic and Stephen Curry By Daniel Kozek '20 The Relationship Between Player Salary and Success in Major League Baseball By Harrison Marcus '20 Winonomics: Small Market Economies and Winning Franchises By Scott Symons '19 Too Big Too Fail: Why the Yankees Will Always Be Contenders By Sam Schwartz '18 Free Agency Frenzy By Ben Gershenfeld '19 Moneyball on Ice? John Chayka of the Arizona Coyotes is the youngest General Manager in NHL history. Photo courtesy of ESPN.com. Cal McKinney ‘20 costs and maximizing output at the same with puck possession and offensive zone m - =♦ time. In hockey, as in baseball, analytics time. The results of the 2015-16 NHL sea­ The growth of hockey analytics has been can be used to find the bargain players. In son show when Corsi is useful, and where slow and hesitant. Hockey, like most sports, this case, it is mostly functional in filling it falls short. has always relied on some form of statis­ out a team’s bottom six forwards and fifth The NHL has recently added advanced tical data to categorize and file players. and sixth defenseman. Elite talent, as I will stats to the measurements available on their These conventional measurements are not show later, does not always translate to website. I will be referring to their infor­ intuitively appealing, and provide scouts the best ratings in advanced stats. Earlier mation for the purposes of analyzing the with a base of understanding before eval­ this year, the Arizona Coyotes hired a 26 effectiveness of these metrics in evaluating uating a player based on in-game scouting. year old analytics guru, John Chayka, to be player and team performance. The NHL’s The core of these measurements are what their general manager.1 Every NHL team website measures shot attempts as a dif­ we usually think about when we mention has now invested in a statistics department, ferential of shot attempts for versus shot a player’s stats: points (goals plus assists), but the Coyotes’ hire is a step beyond that. attempts against. This is, in effect, Corsi. plus-minus, time on ice, and hits. Howev­ Hockey analytics continues to grow, de­ The league MVP last season, Patrick Kane, er appealing these may be to your average spite negative pressure. Critics contend ranks 140th in the league in this category.3 fan or fantasy manager, they do not reflect that luck is too prominent in hockey to trust Based on this it is clear that Corsi is not the entirety of a player’s performance. statistical analysis. While it is true that luck a significant criteria in electing the league The emerging advanced statistics make is a factor in hockey, it affects every skater, MVP. The leader in individual Corsi was an attempt to portray an individual’s per­ making it essentially negligible when com­ Drew Doughty, with a differential of plus formance on a multitude of levels. While paring player performance. 537.4 Rounding out the top ten in the league scouts and managers should invest in the The groundbreaking metric in the world are six of Doughty’s LA Kings teammates. use of advanced analytics, they should of hockey analytics, and the one most fre­ This indicates that individual Corsi rating be used in conjunction with conventional quently referred to today in blogs and arti­ is highly correlated to team Corsi rating. scouting methods, and mostly as a point of cles, is the Corsi metric. Corsi is a simple Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles also leads the comparison between players on the same measurement of shots attempts for versus league in team Corsi percentage.5 I do not team. shot attempts against while a given player mean to discredit Drew Doughty, or the The rise of advanced statistics in sports is on the ice.2 Included in this shot mea­ Los Angeles Kings for that matter. Dough­ is often credited to Billy Beane of the Oak­ surement, which is often calculated as a ty was among the best, if not the best de­ land A’s in the MLB, seen in the now-fa- rate per sixty minutes or a gross sum, are fenseman in the league this past season. He mous book Moneyball, written by Michael shots on goal, blocked shots, and missed did, in the end, win the Norris Trophy for Lewis, which was later adapted into a film shots. The Corsi stat is often thought of as best NHL defenseman. His team, howev­ of the same title. Beane took a statistical a possession stat for teams and individual er, did end up being eliminated in the first approach to scouting as a way of cutting players, since shots are highly correlated round of the playoffs to the Stanley Cup fi- 4 Sports, Inc. nalist San Jose Sharks. er measures. Yet, Corsi I SAT SAT Player Season Team Pos GP SATj Looking at Corsi ratings can be helpful, alone does not point For Agst but it cannot be used in isolation. Teams of­ out which players are 1 Drew Doughty 2015-16 LAK D 82 1778 1241 537 ten look at a multitude of measurements, elite. This requires a often compiling them into their own formu­ fuller understanding of 2 Milan Lucic 2015-16 LAK L 81 1337 915 422 la forjudging player performance based on players and their game. 3 Jake Muzzin 2015-16 LAK D 82 1558 1154 404 advanced analytics. In the case of Corsi, it For instance, Sidney 4 Tyler Toffoli 2015-16 LAK C 82 1260 862 398 is also important to consider shooting per­ Crosby is almost cer­ 5 Brayden McNabb 2015-16 LAK D 81 1399 1010 389 centage because, in the end, shots are far tainly the most domi­ 6 Hampus Lindholm ANA D more indicative of performance if they are nant player currently, 2015-16 80 1360 1014 346 going in the goal. Shot percentage mea­ as he is coming off 7 Anze Kopitar 2015-16 LAK C 81 1273 941 332 sures show a far different result than Corsi. 8 Victor Hedman 2015-16 TBL D 78 1394 1062 332 Shot percentage measures the percent of a 9 Dustin Brown 2015-16 LAK R 82 1148 822 326 team’s shots going in the goal while an in­ MVP performances. 10 John Klingberg 2015-16 DAL D 76 1578 1258 320 dividual is on the ice. The highest ranked However, his Corsi Los Angeles King in this measure is Anze ratings are nothing to 11 N i c k S h o r e 2015-16 LAK C 68 807 509 298 Kopitar at number forty-eight, with a shot 12 Tomas Hertl 2015-16 SJS C 81 1181 908 273 percentage 9.48%.6 Clearly the King’s em­ 13 Mike Ribeiro 2015-16 NSH c 81 1153 881 272 ploy a shoot-first mentality. As a result, the Penguins last year, 14 Filip Forsberg 2015-16 NSH L 82 1203 933 270 they take more shots, with less actually go­ Crosby ranks fifth on ing in. Due to their system, players have an the team with a Corsi 15 Patric Hornqvist 2015-16 PIT R 82 1182 919 263 inflated Corsi rating, which can be mislead­ percentage of 54.5%.10 The LA Kings dominated the league last year in shot attempt metrics. ing when comparing them to players on These numbers are Data courtesy of NHL.com other teams. The system a team employs, good, but not elite pos­ at the game is positive. Analytics has the and their overall success over the course session numbers. So, while certain players ability to enhance the fan experience, and of the season, can either inflate or deflate may exceed others in their Corsi ratings, add a whole new dimension to the business an individual’s advanced statistics. For this all other factors, such as team system, line- of recruiting talent. Hockey will continue reason, it is important to analyze these sta­ mates, and shot quality, must be taken into to depend on traditional ways of assessing tistics relative to the team a player is on, consideration. talent, with added pressure from millenni- first and foremost.
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