It’s break time for The Big Three.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic converting break points against first and second serves when winning and losing matches uncovers some revealing statistics into their stranglehold at the top of the tennis tree. The data set covers five seasons from 2015-2019.

Break Points Won vs. 1st Serves The interesting first take here is how close the three players are for all the matches they played. Rafael Nadal slightly edged the other two, winning 38.02% (576/1515) of breakpoints against first serves, with both Djokovic and Federer close behind within one percentage point.

Surprisingly, it was Federer who led the trio with the highest percentage of breakpoints won against first serves with all matches that he won, at 39.27% (377/960). The commonly held viewpoint is that both Nadal and Djokovic should eclipse the Swiss in all return categories, but it’s simply not so.

Nadal was the best performing player winning break points against first serves in the matches he lost, at 29.44% (53/180). Overall, Nadal also had the least drop off between matches he won and matches he lost, at 9.74 percentage points (39.18% to 29.44%).

Break Points Won vs. 1st Serve (bold = leader) Won V Lost Gap All Matches Matches (Percentage Player Matches Won Lost Points)

Rafael

Nadal 38.02% 39.18% 29.44% 9.74%

Novak

Djokovic 37.73% 39.11% 25.93% 13.18%

Roger

Federer 37.08% 39.27% 22.38% 16.89%

Break Points Won vs. 2nd Serves Nadal was also the best performer of the Big Three winning break points against second serves, at 58.35% (573/982). Nadal also collected the honors with Matches Won, at 60.55% (528/972), while Djokovic had the highest metrics when losing the match, at 47.37% (36/76).

Djokovic also had the least drop off between the win percentages against first and second serves at breakpoint, falling just 11.42 percentage points (58.79% to 47.37%).

Break Points Won vs. 2nd Serve (bold = leader) All Matches Lost Player Matches Won Match Gap

Rafael

Nadal 58.35% 60.55% 40.91% 19.64%

Novak

Djokovic 57.93% 58.79% 47.37% 11.42%

Roger

Federer 51.72% 53.86% 36.89% 16.97%

There are many ways to compare the performance of the Big Three to find out where they craft their small advantages as they constantly chase the biggest prizes in our sport. Performance around breakpoints is as important as any stat they produce to determine if they are continuing to hold the silverware on any given Sunday.