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The Ebb and Flow of Regional Parties: Political Openings, Behavioral Expectations, and Regional Party Volatility

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The Ebb and Flow of Regional Parties: Political Openings, Behavioral Expectations, and Regional Party Volatility The Ebb and Flow of Regional Parties: Political Openings, Behavioral Expectations, and Regional Party Volatility Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Michael Cohen, MA Graduate Program in Political Science The Ohio State University 2009 Dissertation Committee: Professor Marcus Kurtz, Adviser Professor Richard Gunther Professor Irfan Nooruddin Professor Craig Volden Copyright by Michael Cohen 2009 Abstract In recent years regional parties have been hard to ignore. From the Lega Nord‟s emergence in Italy, to regional parties‟ role in coalition formation in Belgium, to their impact on policy in the United Kingdom, regional parties appear to play an increasingly important role in politics. Regional parties are parties that exclusively represent only a subset of geographic areas in a country. Previous research has primarily focused on structural factors (e.g., social cleavages, economic differences, and institutions) that produce and maintain viable regional parties. However if regional party success ebbs and flows while structural factors remain constant what else explains their success? While not to dismiss structural factors, parties, party strategies, and policies produce a dynamic effect that impacts regional parties. Voters operate in a world of incomplete information and uncertainty. How will their vote for a regional party affect public policy? Regional parties must have a competitive advantage over other parties in order to attract voters. They need a label and behavioral expectations that differentiate themselves from larger national parties. If voters are choosing between a small party and a larger party that is capable of winning elections, the smaller party is at a disadvantage. However, if the regional party is able to convince voters that its party platform, its ideology (i.e., its label), and its potential impact (i.e., behavioral expectations) are different and unique, it may be able to attract voters and i i remain viable. The impetus behind this unhappiness is when allocation of resources is net negative for a region and violates norms of equity. The core of the analysis centers on the Italian regional party, the Lega Nord. The Lega Nord was selected for study as it represents a paradox to current regional party theories. I, first, use extensive field research I conducted in Italy to trace the causal mechanisms and then test the hypotheses via statistical analysis of six electoral surveys which conducted between1985 and 2006. Finally, I assess the generalizability of the hypotheses through comparative case studies, specifically in Belgium, Canada and the United Kingdom. ii Dedication Dedicated to the memory of my Grandfather, Marvin Golden and my Parents Harlow and Wendy– Without whom this was not possible iii Acknowledgements An incredible number of people helped me during this project. I first would like to thank my dissertation committee. Marcus Kurtz, my advisor, constantly pushed me to improve the dissertation whether in regards to the theory, research design or empirics. His advice on the practical aspects of getting through the dissertation process was invaluable. Richard Gunther was very helpful with my field research. From dealing with the IRB to setting up contacts in Italy to strengthening my interview questions, my field research would simply not have been possible without his guidance. Irfan Nooruddin was always there to give feedback for my ideas. He provided advice and critiques on the project when it initially was about the political economy of infrastructure and never stopped. Craig Volden gave valuable advice on the nuts and bolts of the dissertation and gave needed encouragement. A number of people were very supportive and helpful during my field research in Italy. First and foremost Paolo Bellucci helped with establishing contacts and improving my language skills. Pierangelo Isernia, Christopher Le Roux, Jean Blondel, and a number of other faculty and staff at the Centre for the Study of Political Change (CIRCAP) in Siena were also helpful. I also had the good fortune of meeting wonderful people while in Italy. They not only made the experience enjoyable but helped me with my research time and time again. I cannot thank enough Johannes Eichenhofer, Beatrice Nanni, Manuel Obermueller, Desiree Suo, and Rasmus Olesen who helped with arranging interviews, iv translations, and a number of other things. In addition Sarah Anders, Massimo Chiasera, Liesbeth Van der Gucht and Murat Yelocagi were supportive and helpful in learning about Italy and Europe more generally. I am equally grateful to a number of people that helped me while I was in the United State. They read drafts, gave critiques, and proved to be some of the best sounding boards one could hope for. Special thanks are needed for Quinton Beazer, Ryan Kennedy, Danielle Langfield, Autumn Lockwood-Payton, Scott Powell, Anand Sokhey, Sarah Sokhey, and Christina Xydias who provided feedback on various chapters. In addition, I would like to thank Donald Cohn, Delia Dumitrescu, Seth Goldstein, Dane Immerman, Keith Moser, and Michael Reese for their friendship and support during the dissertation. I am very fortunate to have such a caring and loving family. I have two wonderful siblings. My brother, Jeremy, and sister, Elyse, have always been there for me and I am appreciative. I will always feel indebted to my parents. I was lucky enough to be raised in a household where higher education and learning more generally were always valued. They have been my most fervent supporters and my most constant advocates. Finally, I wish to thank my grandfather, Marvin. He taught me that while it‟s important to work hard at what you do, you should always enjoy what you do. I like to think I took his life lessons to heart as I both worked hard and enjoyed myself over the course of this dissertation. v Vita May 6, 1979…………………………………………Born – Cleveland, Ohio, USA 2001………………………………………………….B.A. political science and psychology, Washington University 2005…………………………………………………M.A. political science, The Ohio State University 2001-2009………………………………………….Graduate Teaching and Research Assistant, The Ohio State University FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Political Science vi Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... iv Vita ............................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables...................................................................................................................x List of Figures .............................................................................................................. xii Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................1 1.1 Summary of Argument ...........................................................................................4 1.2 Plan of the Dissertation ..........................................................................................6 1.3 Concluding Thoughts ........................................................................................... 10 Chapter 2: Sources of Regional Party Success ............................................................... 12 2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 12 2.2 Regional Parties: Definitions and Importance ....................................................... 14 2.2.1 Definition ...................................................................................................... 14 2.2.2 Defining Region ............................................................................................ 17 2.2.3 Importance .................................................................................................... 19 2.3 Structural Theories of Regional Party Success...................................................... 22 2.3.1 Social Cleavages ........................................................................................... 22 2.3.2 Economic Factors.......................................................................................... 23 2.3.3 Institutional Factors....................................................................................... 26 2.3.4 Additional Variables ..................................................................................... 28 2.3.5 Theory of Voters ........................................................................................... 29 2.4 Political Openings and Perceptions of Equity ....................................................... 30 2.5 Regional Party Differentiation and Behavioral Expectations ................................ 36 2.6 Expectations ........................................................................................................ 44 2.7 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 46 Chapter 3: The Italian Paradox....................................................................................... 48 3.1 Case Selection: Lega Nord as a Deviant Case ....................................................... 49
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