WORKING PAPER MOVING THE GREEN BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: FROM WORDS TO ACTIONS LIHUAN ZHOU, SEAN GILBERT, YE WANG, MIQUEL MUÑOZ CABRÉ, AND KEVIN P. GALLAGHER EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Highlights Executive Summary .......................................1 Since the Chinese government proposed the Belt and Introduction ............................................... 5 ▪ Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, Chinese investments Methodology and Data ....................................7 have been increasing rapidly in the BRI countries. The trend will likely continue, supported by the Chinese Chinese Investments in BRI Countries .................. 9 government’s 2017 pledge of US$113 billion in special Nationally Determined Contributions: funds for investments in BRI. Investment Opportunities in Renewable The Chinese government has taken initial steps to Energy and Transportation .............................20 ▪ incorporate environmentally sustainable, or green, Findings and Conclusions ..............................26 strategies and objectives into BRI, but in very high- Recommendations ...................................... 27 level and conceptual terms. Areas for Further Research and Analysis .............28 This report provides an initial overview of the degree ▪ to which Chinese energy and transportation invest- Appendices ...............................................29 ments in the BRI countries from 2014 to 2017 align Abbreviations ............................................38 with the green priorities communicated in BRI coun- Endnotes..................................................39 tries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). References ...............................................40 Our analysis is based on a comprehensive review of data on bank loans and cross-border investments by the Silk Road Fund and Chinese enterprises. Working Papers contain preliminary research, analysis, findings, and recommendations. They are circulated to The data show that most Chinese deals in energy and stimulate timely discussion and critical feedback, and to ▪ transportation over the period reviewed were tied to influence ongoing debate on emerging issues. Working carbon-intensive sectors and did not show a strong papers may eventually be published in another form and alignment with the low-carbon priorities included in their content may be revised. the BRI countries’ NDCs. Under the Paris Agreement, countries will be submit- Suggested Citation: L. Zhou, S. Gilbert, Y. Wang, M. Muñoz ▪ ting revised NDCs in 2020, with a view to introducing Cabre, and K.P. Gallagher. 2018. “Moving the Green Belt and greater ambition. BRI countries would benefit from Road Initiative: From Words to Actions..” Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Available online at updating their NDCs with sufficient granularity to http://www.wri.org/publication/moving-the-green-belt. provide clear signals to investors to enable a compre- hensive assessment of investment needs. WORKING PAPER | October 2018 | 1 Context ments by investing in priority sectors and projects while also contributing to economic development objectives. With its new Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has offered a sweeping vision to develop This paper provides a comprehensive analysis on infrastructure worth a cumulative $6 trillion and the nature and characteristics of Chinese energy spanning many countries (SCIO 2015b). As part of its and transportation investments from 2014 to effort to finance the BRI, the Chinese government pledged 2017 in BRI countries. Four major types of invest- a total of $113 billion in special funds in 2017, about eight ment are included: syndicated bank loans by CDB, China times the Chinese financial sector’s outward foreign direct Eximbank, and the four biggest state-owned commercial investment (OFDI) flow in the same year (SAFE 2018). banks; energy-sector loans exclusively provided by CDB Wholly state-owned financial institutions—the Silk Road and China Eximbank; equity investments by the SRF; Fund (SRF), the China Development Bank (CDB), and and cross-border investments by Chinese enterprises. the Export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank)— We use both proprietary databases and publicly available received a majority of the funds pledged, while Chinese information to conduct our analysis, including data from commercial financial institutions have been encouraged to Thomson ONE, Dealogic, and Boston University’s Global conduct BRI investments in Chinese yuan (MFA 2017). Development Policy Center (Thomson ONE 2018; Dea- logic 2018; Boston University 2018). Energy and transpor- Chinese investments into power, transportation, tation sectors are covered by this paper on the basis of the and other long-lasting infrastructure assets will availability of sectoral information in NDCs and sectoral lock in technologies for decades and will affect relevance to BRI. the development pathways of BRI countries and their neighbors. Choosing the right type of infrastruc- We estimate energy and transportation invest- ture investment is crucial if BRI countries are to eradicate ment priorities and needs from BRI countries’ poverty and achieve the United Nations Sustainable NDCs to analyze the alignment of Chinese past Development Goals (SDGs). Gains in poverty alleviation investments and to provide an overview of mid- to will only be sustained if climate change is arrested and its long-term investment opportunities in the BRI impacts addressed. A recent World Bank study found that region. The current NDCs are the first NDCs submitted an additional 100 million people will live in poverty due to under the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- climate change by 2030 if countries fail to address these mate Change (UNFCCC), and are heterogeneous in terms challenges (Hallegatte et al. 2016). The investment choices of their form, structure, and content. We were able to that Chinese financial institutions and corporations make quantify the renewable energy investment opportunities in in BRI countries will influence how China is perceived monetary terms based upon the methodology used by the abroad with regard to climate change and the wider devel- International Renewable Energy Agency for 31 of 56 BRI opment agenda. Although the Chinese government has countries, which have quantitative renewable energy con- recognized the importance of incorporating green strate- tributions targets in their NDCs. However, most countries gies into BRI, this has occurred in high-level and concep- only have descriptive information for the transportation tual terms and may not be sufficiently actionable for use in sector in their NDCs without the quantitative elements investment decisions. needed to estimate likely investment needs. Therefore, this paper analyzes transportation sector investment NDCs offer a quantifiable set of country-driven priorities on the basis of the pattern of references and priorities that can be used to inform a concrete commitments in 56 BRI countries’ NDCs. green BRI. NDCs are commitments made by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change after 2020, including key goals Key findings and priority sectors. A large amount of investment will The analysis found a clear trend of increasing Chi- be required to implement NDCs, and the majority of nese investments in BRI countries over time. From countries, especially developing countries, do not have 2015 to 2017, the volume of energy and transportation sufficient financial resources to fulfill their investment syndicated loans in which major Chinese banks partici- needs (IFC 2016). With newly injected government special pated was three times as large as in the period from 2012 funds, Chinese financial institutions have resources that to 2014. Although Chinese global OFDI dropped by nearly could help BRI countries implement their NDC commit- 20 percent in 2017, the OFDI to BRI countries continued growing by 31.5 percent (MOFCOM 2018). 2 | Moving the Green Belt and Road Initiative: From Words to Actions According to the data reviewed, most Chinese If Chinese government special funds are deployed deals in energy and transportation are still tied to to give greater priority to green opportunities, traditional sectors and do not show a strong align- especially in the near term, these funds could ment with the low-carbon priorities included in have an outsized positive impact on green growth BRI governments’ NDCs. From 2014 to 2017, 91 per- in the BRI countries. By targeting green objectives cent of the energy-sector syndicated loans in which the six in the coming years, China could use BRI special major Chinese banks included in this study participated, funds to quickly become a major catalyst for low- and 61 percent of the energy-sector loans financed entirely carbon development in the region. A substantial by China Development Bank and/or China Eximbank were flow of pre-2020 green or climate-friendly investments in fossil fuels (see Figure ES-1). Over the same period, would build a solid foundation for climate ambition as 93 percent of energy-sector investments by the SRF were countries prepare to submit revised NDCs and implement also in fossil fuels, and 95 percent of cross-border energy them after 2020. Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) investments by Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have adopted targets for climate finance as a percentage of were in fossil fuels as well. In contrast, nearly two-thirds their overall portfolio; the targets exceed 25