NORDIC RETAIL MARKET PRESENTATION London, March 2016
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
NORDIC RETAIL MARKET PRESENTATION London, March 2016 STOCKHOLM | OSLO | HELSINKI | LONDON STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AGENDA 1 GENERAL NORDIC MARKET UPDATE 2 THE NORDIC RETAIL MARKET 3 RECENT DEALS AND INVESTORS 4 SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK 54 APPENDIX PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 2 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL NORDIC MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK Stronger growth than the rest of Europe, but country-wise differences SWEDEN NORWAY 6.0% 6.0% GDP 4.0% 4.0% GDP 2.6% 2016-2020F 1.8% 2016-2020F 2.0% 2.0% » Robust diversified » Short term growth 0.0% economy 0.0% effected by oil price -2.0% » Repo rate cut to -0.5% -2.0% » Weak currency -4.0% » Large migration -4.0% » Strong public finances -6.0% -6.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016F 2020F 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016F 2020F FINLAND DENMARK 6.0% 6.0% GDP GDP 4.0% 1.3% 2016-2020F 4.0% 2.1% 2016-2020F 2.0% 2.0% » Re-bound from Nokia » Economic recovery 0.0% and Russia effects 0.0% continues -2.0% » Positive growth -2.0% » Increasing housing expected 2016- prices -4.0% -4.0% » Further structural » Repo rate at -0.65% -6.0% reforms needed -6.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016F 2020F 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016F 2020F Source: Pangea Property Research, IMF PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL STRONG NORDIC RETAIL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS Purchasing power twice as high as in Europe POPULATION GROWTH (FORECAST 2016-2020) NORDIC RETAIL MARKET CHARACTERISTICS 8.0% » The fastest growing populations in Europe 6.0% » Strong purchasing power and a generally high standard of living 4.0% » Strong growth in retail sales and disposable income » Rapid urbanization with multiple growth regions 2.0% » Positive outlook compared to the rest of Europe 0.0% Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Nordics Europe GDP PER CAPITA AND DISPOSABLE INCOME (EUR, 2015) RETAIL SALES AND DISPOSABLE INCOME (10Y CAGR, %) 40,000 4.0% 30,000 3.0% 20,000 2.0% 10,000 1.0% 0 0.0% Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Nordics Europe Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Nordics Europe GDP per capita Disposable income Retail sales Disposable income Source: IMF, Statistics Nordics, OECD PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 4 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL LIQUID NORDIC TRANSACTION MARKETS Record volume above €40bn in 2015, of which €10.5bn retail (26%) NORDIC TRANSACTION VOLUMES (2015) NORDIC TRANSACTION VOLUME (2004-2015) Sweden Norway Finland Denmark The Nordics ~950 transactions 45 2015 EUR 40.4bn 40 35 EURbn 30 25 20 » 433 transactions 15 » EUR 15.7bn 10 » (SEK 147bn) 5 » -3% from 2014 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Finland » 211 transactions » EUR 12.5bn Norway GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT (2015) SECTOR SPLIT (2015) » (NOK 120bn) Denmark » +118% from 2014 Sweden Other 15% 14% Finland 15% Office » 154 transactions Sweden Residential 34% » 144 transactions » EUR 6.0bn 39% 16% » EUR 6.2bn Denmark » +50% from 2014 » (DKK 46bn) » +113% from 2014 Industrial/storage Norway 10% 31% Retail 26% Source: Pangea Property Research. Based on deals above EUR5m in property value PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 5 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL HIGH CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY Foreign buyers acquiring Nordic property for EUR 14bn last 12M (32% of volume) (Last 12M) SWEDEN NORWAY FINLAND DENMARK International International International International buyers buyers buyers buyers 38% 43% CROSS- 27% 44% BORDER DEALS Domestic Domestic Domestic Domestic buyers buyers buyers buyers 73% 56% 62% 57% GLOBAL BUYERS NORDIC BUYERS Source: Pangea Property Research PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 6 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL NORDIC TOP-10 TRANSACTIONS (LAST 12M) Retail being the dominating theme # BUYER SELLER PORTFOLIO SEGMENT RETAIL COUNTRY PRICE (€bn) 1 Citycon Several Sektor Gruppen Retail √ Nor 1.5 2 Blackstone Obligo Obligo IM fund structures Mixed Swe, Nor, Fin 1.3 3 Novo, TryghedsGruppen Several DADES (49.2%) Office, retail (√) Den 1.1 4 Four Danish institutions NREP Logistics portfolio, 28 assets Logistics Swe, Den, Fin 0.7 5 Entra, Streen & Ström DNB Liv Oslo City Office, retail (√) Nor 0.6 6 Meyer Bergman Søylen & Madison Promenaden Property, 11 assets Retail √ Nor 0.6 7 Schage Eiendom Several Salto Eiendom, 19 assets Retail √ Nor 0.5 8 Partners Group Sveafastigheter Remaining Sveafastigheter III Mixed Swe, Nor 0.5 9 AMF, Ilmarinen Kesko Kesko portfolio (66%), 40 assets Retail Fin, Swe 0.4 Storebrand Eiendomsfond (75%), 10 Partners Group Storebrand Mixed Nor 0.4 30 assets √ Source: Pangea Property Research. Only Nordic part of portfolios considered PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 7 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AGENDA 1 GENERAL NORDIC MARKET UPDATE 2 THE NORDIC RETAIL MARKET 3 RECENT DEALS AND INVESTORS 4 SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK 54 APPENDIX PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 8 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL HIGH SHOPPING AREA DENSITY IN THE NORDICS Large shopping area in relation to population SHOPPING AREA, MILLION SQM LARGEST SHOPPING CENTRES / RETAIL PARKS (TURNOVER 2015E) 20 SWEDEN 1. Gekås, €650m 16 Nordic stock: ~10 million sqm 2. Kungens Kurva, €630m 3. Barkarby, €500m 12 4. Nordstan, €450m 8 5. Mall of Scandinavia, n/a NORWAY 4 6. Sandvika Storsenter, €355m 7. Lagunen Storsenter, €340m 0 8. Strømmen Storsenter, €330m 9. AMFI Moa, €300m 10. Kvadrat, €250m 9 FINLAND 15 SHOPPING AREA, SQM PER ‘000 INHABITANTS 11. Jumbo, €430m 12 14 12. Sello, €380m 11 13 600 7 8 3 6 5 13. Itis, €360m 2 500 Nordic average: ~390 sqm 14. Iso Omena, €260m 10 15. Ideapark, €260m 400 4 DENMARK 1 300 17 16. Field’s, €380m 200 17. Aalborg Storsenter, €320m 20 16 19 18 18. Rødovre Centrum, €290m 100 19. Rosengårdcenteret, €280m 0 20. Kolding Storsenter, €250m Source: Pangea, JLL, C&W, Colliers, SSCD, Kvarud PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 9 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL NORDIC SHOPPING CENTRE SUPPLY Several major projects finalized in 2014-2015, lower new supply expected in 2016- NEW SHOPPING CENTRES EXAMPLES – RECENTLY OPENED AND 1 2 3 ONGOING RETAIL PROJECTS 4 5 6 2015: ~400,000 sqm 11 new retail area 5 2 8 1 9 7 8 9 2016: 14 4 10 ~250,000 sqm new retail area 13 7 3 12 6 MAJOR EXTENSIONS / UPGRADES 10 11 12 NEW SHOPPING CENTERS MAJOR EXTENSIONS / UPGRADES 1. 2014: Horisont, Bergen: 40,000 sqm 10. 2015: Täby Centrum, Stockholm 2. 2014: Puuvilla Centre, Pori: 42,000 sqm 11. 2015: Utopia Shopping, Umeå 3. 2015: BIG, Copenhagen: 45,000 sqm 12. 2015: Väla Centrum, Helsingborg 4. 2015: Mall of Scandinavia, Solna: 100,000 sqm 13. 2017: Sisjön, Gothenburg 5. 2016: Söderslätts Handel, Umeå: 70,000 sqm 14. 2017: Økern Sentrum, Oslo 13 14 6. 2017: C4 shopping, Kristianstad: 60,000 sqm 7. 2017: BROEN Centre, Esbjerg: 30,000 sqm 8. 2018: REDI Centre, Helsinki: 60,000 sqm 9. 2018: Kivistö, Helsinki: 100,000 sqm Source: Pangea Property Research, SSCD PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 10 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL NORDIC GROCERY STORE MARKET Different key players in each country and few international retailers SWEDEN NORWAY FINLAND DENMARK MARKET SHARES (2015E) MARKET SHARES (2015E)* MARKET SHARES (2015E) MARKET SHARES (2015E) 4% 2% 7% 7% 5% 7% 7% 10% 7% 16% 24% 15% 38% 41% 46% 51% 20% 33% 28% 32% ICA Coop Norgesgruppen Coop S-group K-group Coop Dansk Superm. Axfood Bergendahls Rema Other Lidl Soumen L. Fria Köpmän Reitangruppen Lidl Other Other Lidl » ICA undisputable market leader » Norgesgruppen, Coop and Rema » Market dominated by S-group and » Coop (Brugsen, Kvickly, etc.) with ~50% market share (Reitan Group) largest retailers K-group (Kesko) with almost 80% largest retailer with almost » Coop (largest retailer 1920-70) » ICA Norway sold to Coop Norway market share 40% market share gradually loosing market shares for SEK 2.8bn in 2014 » K-group gradually loosing market » Dansk Supermarked (Netto, Bilka, » Axfood and Bergendals main » Today, the three largest retailers share over the last 10 years etc.) is runner-up with +30% competitors have more than 90% market share » Lidl aggressive competitor market share *ICA Norway part of Coop Norway since 2015 Source: HUI, Nielsen, DLF, etc.. Estimated market shares for 2015. PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 11 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL NORDIC RETAIL INVESTOR UNIVERSE Examples of both seller and buyers in the current market Low Divestment focus High NET BUYERS Many international investors wanting to NET BUYERS REPOSITIONING » increase their Nordic retail exposure » Some new Nordic retail structures with fresh equity High High REPOSITIONING » Several retail specialists streamlining their portfolios – buy large, sell small » Some fund managers operating multiple funds with different focus NET SELLERS » Quite few large shopping centres officially Acquisition focus Acquisition focus for sale in the market » More secondary assets and retailers downsizing their property portfolios HOLD Low Low » Retail owners with long-term holding strategies, only selective transactions HOLD NET SELLERS » Owner occupiers with long-term strategy to own their properties Low Divestment focus High Source: Pangea Property Research PANGEA PROPERTY PARTNERS 12 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL WHAT ARE THE BIG INDUSTRIAL INVESTORS LOOKING FOR? Focus on large centres and portfolios with potential to add value through active management 1 Modern centres and retail parks 1 Fewer and larger assets 2 Leading assets in each catchment area 2 Efficient management platforms 3 International appeal 3 Leveraging on expertise HIGH QUALITY UP-SIZING AND 4 Development opportunities ASSETS UP-SCALING 4 Profitable extensions ASSET 1 Urban growth areas MANAGMENT URBAN 2 Close to the customers FOCUS CROSS POINTS 3 Multiple transportations 1 Strong operational focus 4 Community hubs 2 Hands-on retail expertise 3 Close tenant relationships MORE THAN JUST SHOPPING 4 Incentivized management 1 Delivering experiences 2 Creating meeting places 3 Food, health, entertainment,