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Scientific Psychology Is Unknown to Most People. (Principles to Explain, Predict, Control)

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Scientific Psychology Is Unknown to Most People. (Principles to Explain, Predict, Control) Preface In spite of the popularity of "Psychology", scientific psychology is unknown to most people. (principles to explain, predict, control). Majority of books not by recognized scientific psychologists. Pseudoscience industry: astrology, psychic surgery, speed reading, biorhythms, subliminal weight loss, talk show psychics. Obsession with content in lower level courses leaves false impressions: Psych exps. not real life Psych just common sense Psych just matter of opinion ("anything goes problem") Evidence suggests that intro courses have little impact, offer little insight into how the knowledge was developed. Little evidence for a generally heightened skepticism. Chapter 1 "Psychology is alive and well" I. The Freud problem: Freud most well known, Skinner far behind. But less than 10% of APA concerned with Freudian psychoanalysis. Case study and introspection not rep. of modern psych. No controlled experimentation!! (Movie: Analyze This) II. The diversity of modern psych., Bio to social, 46 div APA + sub No one grand theory -- like medicine and other sciences Psych dept. as administrative convenience, could disband. Freud a very minor player! III. Unity in science, not in concern with human beh. or application. A. Psychology studies range of behavior with science. B. Applications are scientifically based Opposed by pseudoscience view that psych not a science. Traditions of authority and common sense, folk wisdom, just as Galileo and Darwin first resisted, Darwin still. IV. What then is science? Not defined by subject matter or particular apparatus, but way of thinking and observing. A. Systematic empiricism - "lets take a look" (structured & theory) vs. pure thought and appeal to authority , like Francesco Sizi's 7 windows to head, 7 metals, 7 days/week, and 7 planets argument against Galileo discovery of Jupiter moons. B. Publicly verifiable knowledge, replicable, extendable, critical peer review. (controversial theories not shut out, many outlets). (Stanovich hedges on peer review and journal pub, only a minimal criterion) C. Solvable problems, not humans inherently evil etc., but some (Meaning of Life: see Monte Python) problems later become solvable, science pushes cutting edge. V. Psychology and folk wisdom A. We all have implicit psychological theories, often inconsistent as cliches; Look befor you leap: He who hesitates is lost. Can not be refuted. Other common beliefs can be: work during school good for kids, smart kids weak, group homes and property value. Famous dyslexics. Early ripe early rot. Yesterday’s common sense: Blacks should not read, women not vote. V. Psychology is a young science and thus lacks respect over physics etc. A. Cambridge Univ. 100 yrs ago said psych "insults religion by putting the human soul on a pair of scales". B. Proxmire (Golden fleece award): rejected studies of love and attachment for contradictory reasons: Can't be studied empirically People would be disturbed by empirical facts. Chapter 2: Falsifiability 1793 yellow fever epidemic in Philadelphia, treated with bloodletting by Benjamin Rush, attributed success to treat. failure to severity of disease. (Could not be falsified!) I. Theories and the falsifiability criterion (Karl Popper). Theory must state what should and should not happen, can't account for anything that might happen. Theory is interrelated set of concepts to explain and predict, not just a guess ("its only a theory" creationist argument.) A. The theory of knocking rhythms: more specific predictions more impressive (specific female, vs just male of female.) B. Freud and falsifiability: Psychohistory (Nixon’s Oedipal need to fail) , Tourette syndrome: unconscious sexual strivings, conversion at anal-sadistic level. Can explain everything ad hoc. Serious, because time wasted in therapy, miss valid treatment, Disrupt families. (haloperidol for Toureettes) B. Little green men in the brain control things, but disappear when viewed, like ESP, which most believe. Skeptic’s bad vibes. C. Quality of confirming evidence just as important as quantity. D. Folk wisdom contradictory and unfalsifiable. E. Science proceeds by conjectures and refutations. Must be free to admit mistakes! (Judith Harris and the Nurture Assumption). F. Thoughts are cheap: Gould II. Errors in Science: getting closer to the truth. A. Some laws seem quite certain, but science works on fringes of known seems to have lots of quibbles, not confident, errors common, gives bad public image. B. Can't be too in love with theory, avoid confirmation bias. modify to fit new evidence. Earth flat/sphere (shadow length)/oblate spheroid, do not throw sphere idea out, but refine. Chapter 3: Operationism and Essentialism: But doctor, what really mean" I. Why scientists are not essentialists. (essence of gravity?). A. Such ultimate questions considered unanswerable in science. Precise definition first vs. definition from data? B. Operationism: Observable events measured direct and indirect. C. Scientific concepts evolve: electron, intelligence:test,ach,brain Memory, dyslexia. Concepts become emeshed in theoretical system. D. Operationism resisted in psyc because of preexisting bias from common terms like depression (12 pages DSM). Peoples definitions actually vary widely. E. Truly humane theory of behavior based on observations, not intuit. F. Students often expect essentialist answers in psych, not other sci. G. Can computers think? Operational definition (Learn?, intuit) resist due to preexisting bias. Ch. 4. Testimonials and case study evidence: Placebo effects, clever Hans, and the amazing Randi. I. Stages of scientific investigation: case studies OK to begin, not end. Theory of birth order on Opra Winfrey program, supported by reference to cases. (Dr. Pontificate). Not falsifiable, and individual cases can not prove theory [scientific evidence: Sulloway vs. Ernst & Angst] II. Why testimonials are worthless. [My Levinson example, eye patch study]. A. Placebo effects in psychotherapy (Paul, 1967): Desensitization 85%, Placebo pill 50%, Spontaneous remission 22%. 2/3 of prozac effect in placebo, addiction to placebo. All of melatonin effect due to placebo. (Problem: can reinforce the delusion of imagined disease.) Self esteem and memory tape label effects on tests (Greenwald et al.) B. Case of clever Hans--math abilities attested to by group of experts. Psychologist Oskar Pfungst found horse detecting trainers head move. C. The vividness problem with personal testimony. 1. Crime attitudes..salient cases. (John Hinkley) Student estimate insanity 33%, success 45%, actual less 1%, success 4%. 2. Cost of higher education est. $6841, act. $1566 tuition. 3. Jumbo jet death vs. car crashes. 4. Child abduction 1/700,000. 5. Hamill et al. judgment of prison guards from one case. Informed that guard was atypical had no effect. 6. Student preference for condom brands. Consumer Report favored ideally, but 31 % chose on basis of testimonial. 7. Sutton's ideas about responding to vividness problem. II. The amazing Randi (Flim-Flam, 1980). Exposed Uri Geller [Hyman story] Goes on talk shows and claims to have seen formation of v shaped triangular objects, people call in. Exposed Project Alpha at Washington Univ, St. Louis (McDonnel) Randi's friends went to lab, then exposed trickery. Diagnosed hand writing by reading others astrology charts. Biorhythm chart picked at random, confirmed to be accurate. P.T. Barnum effect: most will endorse generalized personality summary as accurate and specific descriptions of themselves (Dickenson and Kelly, 1985). Also basis for palm readers, astrologists. III. Testimonials open door to pseudoscience. 10 billion wasted. See guidelines for avoiding arthritis quack page 69. Ch. 5: Correlation & Causation: Birth control by the Toaster method. I. Third variable problem. A. Taiwan study of what predicts use of contraception? # electrical appliances. Give out toasters? Must be linked to other variable. B. Pearson (statistician, eugenicist): r for parent TB and child = .5 Thought TB genetic, Jews innately dirty. C. Pellagra in 1990s, thought due to poor sanitation. Goldberger due to inadequate diet. Ate excrement!! along with wife, assistants. Manipulated critical variable in Prison study II. Directionality problem. A. Eye movements r with reading, EM training in schools. (Dowis). III. Selection bias and spurious correlations. A. Arizona highest incidence of death due to respiratory illness. B. Efficacy of private vs. public schools.: no relation after factoring out family background and general mental ability. C. College attendance and socioeconomic level, still significant after factoring academic ability. D. Negative correlation between SAT in state and teacher salaries, but only best kids in Mississippi take test, 43% in California. E. Negative r for psychotherapy and recovery. Ch. 6: Getting things under control. I. Snow's semi experiment on cholera in 1850's London, thought to be transmitted by bad air. Found area with two diff. water supplies up and down river from London, down river much worse. (could still be third factor related to earlier sign-up choice.) II. Comparison, Control, and Manipulation: best to manipulate variable of interest and control all others. Pry appart natural correlations. Word length and word frequency correlated, vary frequency while holding length constant. (might also worry about part of speech, I add). III. Discussion of how intuitive physics often wrong (continuing path of ball curving or straight? 30% college said curve. Also intuitive psych: religious not more
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