Draft Impact Analysis for the Proposed Designation of Critical Habitat for Beringia DPS Bearded Seals
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Draft RIR/ESA Section 4(b)(2) Preparatory Assessment/IRFA of Critical Habitat Designation for the Beringia Distinct Population Segment (DPS) of the Bearded Seal December 2020 NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE Alaska Region Draft RIR/4(b)(2) Preparatory Assessment/IRFA of Critical Habitat Designation for the Beringia DPS of the Bearded Seal Table of Contents 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................1-1 1.1 Listing and Critical Habitat Designation Background ....................................................... 1-1 1.2 Purpose and Need............................................................................................................ 1-2 1.3 Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 1-3 1.4 Regulatory Impact Requirements ..................................................................................... 1-3 1.4.1 Requirements of Regulatory Impact Review .................................................... 1-3 1.4.2 Requirements of Section 4(b)(2) of the ESA .................................................... 1-4 1.4.3 Requirements of Regulatory Flexibility Act ....................................................... 1-4 1.5 Description of Critical Habitat Designation Alternatives ................................................... 1-5 1.6 Structure of the Report ..................................................................................................... 1-5 2 Methodology and Framework for Analysis ..................................................................2-1 2.1 General Framework for the Analysis ................................................................................ 2-1 2.2 Categories of Potential Economic Effects of Critical Habitat Designation ....................... 2-1 2.2.1 Efficiency Effects ............................................................................................... 2-2 2.2.2 Net Benefits ....................................................................................................... 2-3 2.2.3 Distributional and Regional Economic Effects .................................................. 2-3 2.3 Framework for Estimating Benefits .................................................................................. 2-4 2.3.1 Benefit Valuation Methods ................................................................................ 2-5 2.4 Baseline and Incremental Effects ..................................................................................... 2-6 2.4.1 Baseline for the Analysis ................................................................................... 2-6 2.4.2 Types of Economic Costs and Benefits of Critical Habitat Designation ........... 2-7 2.5 Analytic Time-Frame ........................................................................................................ 2-9 2.6 Potentially Affected Economic Sectors and Groups ......................................................... 2-9 2.7 Information Sources ....................................................................................................... 2-10 3 Types of Economic Costs of Critical Habitat Designation .........................................3-1 3.1 Direct Costs ...................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Administrative Section 7 Consultation Costs .................................................... 3-1 3.1.2 Section 7 Project Modification Costs ................................................................ 3-2 3.2 Indirect Costs .................................................................................................................... 3-3 3.2.1 Other State and Local Laws (Trigger Effects) ................................................... 3-3 3.2.2 Time Delays ...................................................................................................... 3-4 3.2.3 Regulatory Uncertainty ..................................................................................... 3-4 4 Types of Economic Benefits of Beringia DPS Critical Habitat Designation ..............4-1 4.1 Categories of Beringia DPS Critical Habitat Benefits ....................................................... 4-1 4.2 Use Benefits ..................................................................................................................... 4-2 4.2.1 Direct Use Benefits ........................................................................................... 4-3 4.3 Nonuse or Passive Use Benefits ...................................................................................... 4-7 4.4 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 4-10 5 Contextual Information .................................................................................................5-1 5.1 Geographic Scope (Study Area) ...................................................................................... 5-1 December 2020 i Table of Contents This information is distributed solely for the purpose of pre-dissemination review under applicable Information Quality Guidelines. It has not been formally disseminated by NOAA. It does not represent and should not be construed to represent any agency determination or policy. Draft RIR/4(b)(2) Preparatory Assessment/IRFA of Critical Habitat Designation for the Beringia DPS of the Bearded Seal 5.2 Description of Affected Economies .................................................................................. 5-1 5.2.1 Population Trends and Projections ................................................................... 5-1 5.2.2 Race and Ethnicity ............................................................................................ 5-4 5.2.3 Alaska Native Corporations and Communities ................................................. 5-4 5.2.4 Income-Related Measures of Social Well-Being .............................................. 5-6 5.2.5 Major Economic Sectors ................................................................................... 5-7 5.3 Regulatory Baseline ....................................................................................................... 5-19 5.3.1 Federal ............................................................................................................ 5-19 5.3.2 State Regulations ............................................................................................ 5-23 5.4 Current and Projected Economic and Social Activity ..................................................... 5-25 5.4.1 Oil and Gas Exploration, Development, and Production ................................ 5-25 5.4.2 Mining .............................................................................................................. 5-36 5.4.3 Ports and Coastal Construction ...................................................................... 5-37 5.4.4 Commercial Fisheries ..................................................................................... 5-38 5.4.5 Alaska Native Subsistence Use and Personal Use ........................................ 5-41 5.4.6 Recreation and Tourism .................................................................................. 5-46 5.4.7 Commercial Shipping and Marine Transportation .......................................... 5-47 5.4.8 Military Activities .............................................................................................. 5-49 5.4.9 Interactions between Bearded Seal Habitats and other Protected Species and their Habitats ............................................................................................ 5-51 5.4.10 Educational, Scientific, Non-Consumptive Use of the Beringia DPS and its Habitat ............................................................................................................. 5-52 5.5 Summary and Projected Number of Future Actions that May Affect Beringia DPS Critical Habitat ................................................................................................................ 5-53 6 Costs and Benefits of Beringia DPS Critical Habitat Designation .............................6-1 6.1 Oil and Gas Exploration, Development, and Production .................................................. 6-2 6.1.1 Potential Costs to Oil and Gas .......................................................................... 6-2 6.1.2 Potential Benefits to Oil and Gas ...................................................................... 6-3 6.2 Mining ............................................................................................................................... 6-3 6.2.1 Potential Costs to Mining .................................................................................. 6-3 6.2.2 Potential Benefits to Mining .............................................................................. 6-3 6.3 Ports and Coastal Construction ........................................................................................ 6-3 6.3.1 Potential Costs to this Sector ............................................................................ 6-3 6.3.2 Potential Benefits to this Sector ........................................................................ 6-4 6.4 Commercial Fisheries ......................................................................................................