2015 Stock Assessment and Fishery Summary Chinook, Coho and Chum

1 Background and Stock Assessment

2 Fraser River Chinook - Background

Diverse group of populations, exhibiting a wide range of life histories, geography, and run timing Chinook enter the Fraser River from March thru October Spawning occurs throughout the Fraser, from just above the tidal limits in the Lower Fraser to the upper tributaries of the Stuart basin Juveniles exhibit both stream and ocean life history types Currently managed as five Management Units

–Fraser Spring 42 Chinook

–Fraser Spring 52 Chinook

–Fraser Summer 52 Chinook

–Fraser Summer 41 Chinook –Fraser Fall Chinook

3 2015 Fraser River Stock Assessment Chinook

In-season Assessment for Fraser Spring and Summer 52 –Began the year assuming zone 1

–Spring and Summer 52 Chinook are assessed in-season with an abundance model based on catch from the Albion Test Fishery –On June 15th this in-season model generated an estimate of 48,440 chinook (FN0549). –this estimate resulted in Zone 2 management for 2015 (Zone 1 < 45K; Zone 2 = 45 to 85K; Zone 3 > 85K)

4 2015 Fraser River Stock Assessment Chinook Post-season Assessment –spawner abundance is estimated using a number of methods –mark-recapture studies – Nicola, Harrison, Lower and Mid Shuswap, Chilko –electronic counters – Bonaparte and Deadman –fence counts at Salmon River (Salmon Arm) –remaining assessments are through visual surveys (aerial, foot or float)

5 2015 Preliminary Escapements

Fraser Spring 42 Chinook –improved over brood in 2015 (avg. >150% for those stocks we have info for so far), and all populations improved although some only barely. –Not as productive as in the past, and the stocks overall are at levels well below MSY. –Continued rebuilding is required before these stocks will attain MSY escapement levels.

Fraser Spring 52 Chinook

–Spring 52 chinook improved over brood in 2015 (avg. ~150%), although there were some populations that did poorly and others that did exceptionally well. –Not as productive as in the past. –Continued rebuilding is required for these.

6 2015 Preliminary Escapements

Fraser Summer 52 Chinook –Almost all Summer 52 populations increased in spawner abundance compared to their parent brood levels, and of the surveyed systems, only Cariboo failed to show improvement over brood abundance

Fraser Summer 41 Chinook - record escapements in Adams and Little River, and escapements exceeded parent brood levels for all stocks.

- The aggregate escapement for the South Thompson summers exceeded 170K!

7 Escapement - Fraser Spring 42 Chinook

Base Period Doubling Goal

8 Escapement - Fraser Spring 52 Chinook

Base Period Doubling Goal

9 Escapement - Fraser Summer 52 Chinook

Base Period Doubling Goal

10 Escapement - Fraser Summer 41 Chinook

Base Period Doubling Goal

11 Escapement - Fraser Fall Chinook

Escapement Goal Range

12 Fraser River Coho - Background

Coho populations spawn throughout the Fraser watershed –many spawning sites in Lower Fraser River (Below Hells Gate) –Interior Fraser coho return to the Upper Fraser and Thompson Rivers (Above Hells Gate) Stream-type life history Most return as three year olds, though 10% return as 4 year olds having spent 2 years in fresh water. Coho enter the Lower Fraser River from late August to December – peak migration period for Interior Fraser Coho from early September to early October Interior Fraser Coho populations have declined dramatically from peak abundances observed in the 1980’s.

13 2015 Fraser River Stock Assessment Coho Interior Fraser Coho -very preliminary escapement estimate between 10,000 and 20,000 -decrease from 2012 parental brood escapement of ~57,000 -2014 aggregate escapement was 18,200

Lower Fraser Coho -escapement assessments are still underway -estimates are expected late February -work continues to identify a suite of systems to use for tracking annual abundance

14 Escapement Coho - 2015 is very preliminary

100,000 3-Year Geometric Mean of Interior Fraser Coho Relative to IFCRT Benchmarks 90,000

80,000

3-year Geometric Mean of IFC Escapement ement

p 70,000 IFCRT Short Term Recovery Objective sca

E IFCRT Long Term Recovery Objective

60,000

IFC f

o 50,000 ean

M 40,000

c

i r 30,000

eomet 20,000 G

10,000

-

84 07 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

9 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Return Year

15 Pre-fishery Abundance - Interior Fraser River Coho

Total Abundance and Spawning Escapement of Interior Fraser River Coho 1975-2015 400,000

350,000

Spawning Escapement 300,000 Total Abundance

250,000

oho

C of 200,000

Number 150,000

100,000

50,000

84 07 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

9 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Return Year

16 Fraser River Chum - Background

Largest chum population in - two Conservation Units (Lower Fraser and Fraser Canyon) - managed as a single aggregate for setting TAC Escapement goal is 800,000 Return to Fraser from September through November - recent year peak migration mid/late-October Major spawning areas are below Hope - Harrison/Weaver/Chehalis, Chilliwack/Vedder, Stave Enhancement - Weaver spawning channels, Inch Creek, Chilliwack, and Chehalis hatcheries - production relatively consistent over the last 10 years - proportion of fed fry decreased in the last decade, but has been increased in recent years

17 2015 Fraser River Chum

Managed based on in-season information derived from the Albion test fishery

2015 in-season assessment –October 20th preliminary run size estimate of 1.5 million –October 22ndth run size estimate was 1.78 million Post-season assessment (escapement) –2015 escapement assessments are still underway – no preliminary estimates available

18 2015 Fraser River Fishery Summary

19 Please note that the term “Lower Fraser” is meant to include the Fraser River mainstem below Sawmill Creek and tributaries to the Lower Fraser River, where applicable.

20 2015 Fraser River Fisheries - Commercial

Directed chum fisheries in-river if a commercial TAC is identified – constraints due to co-migrating stocks of concern • IFR Coho • IFR Steelhead Area B Fraser River Chum/Pink Fisheries – Unsuccessful pink fishery (27 pink, 5 coho, 21 chinook) – Limited Chum success, harvest of 4,513 Chum – 56 Coho released Area E Fraser River Chum Fishery – harvest of 125,463 chum – retained bycatch of 104 chinook, 4 hatchery marked coho and 1 steelhead – 129 Chinook, 730 coho, and 21 steelhead were released

21 2015 Fraser River Catch Commercial and Demonstration

Commercial Chinook Coho Chum kept rel kept rel kept rel Area E Chum directed 104 129 4 730 125,463 67

Area B Pink Directed - 21 - 5 - -

Chum Directed - - - 51 4,513 -

22 2015 Fraser River Fisheries - Recreational

Chinook management actions in Region 2 (Lower Mainland) •January 1 to August 2, no fishing for salmon. •August 3 to August 14, the daily limit was four chinook per day with only one over 50 cm allowed to be retained. •August 15 to August 28, no fishing for salmon. This management measure was in place due to high water temperatures and concerns with potential impacts to co-migrating sockeye salmon. •August 29 to December 31 the daily limit for wild or hatchery marked chinook salmon was four with only one over 62 cm allowed to be retained.

23 2015 Fraser River Fisheries - Recreational Chinook management actions in Region 3 (Thompson-Nicola) Fisheries in Region 3 generally target a specific stock group and are short duration opportunities designed to avoid impacts on non-target stocks. Areas not specifically mentioned are closed to fishing for salmon year-round. A closure to all salmon fishing was implemented on July 22 due to high water temperatures. Limited fisheries reopened once the water temps dropped.

Fisheries targeting Sp/Sum 52 stocks –Clearwater and North Thompson Rivers catch and release July 16 to July 21, then closed, then August 7 to Aug 21, one Chinook per day from (monthly limit of 2). –Fraser River at Bridge River open Sunday through Thursday from June 16 to July 2; 1 per day

Fisheries targeting Summer 41 stocks – Goldpan to the Fraser Aug. 29 to Sept. 22, 4 per day, none > 50 cm –Kamloops Lake And Thompson River downstream to Goldpan Aug 28 to Sept. 22, 4 per day, 1 > 50 cm –South Thompson River Aug 22 to Sept 22, 4 per day, 2 > 50 cm

24 2015 Fraser River Fisheries - Recreational Chinook management actions in Region 5A and 7 (Cariboo/Peace)

All fisheries in these Regions target Spring or Summer 52 Chinook One Chinook per day, none > 77 cm in the following areas and times: –Bowron River: July 15 to Aug 15 –Cariboo and Chilko Rivers: July 25 to Aug 16 –: Aug 15 to Aug 27 –: July 15 to Sept 1

Chinook management actions in Region 8 ()

These fisheries target Summer 41 Chinook with some measures in place to avoid Bessette Spring 42 stocks. Areas not specifically mentioned are closed to fishing for salmon year round. Fisheries were reduced this year due to high water temps. – Mabel Lake and Lower opened to Chinook Sept. 1 to Sept 13 , 4/day, only 2 > 50 cm. The open area of Mabel Lake was smaller than usual this year due to an area that remained closed near the mouth of the Middle Shuswap River due to concerns for Middle Shuswap chinook.

25 2015 Fraser River Fisheries - Recreational Coho management actions •Mouth to Sawmill Creek - no fishing for coho (bait ban) during “Coho Window Closure” from early September to early October •Sawmill Creek to Lytton – No fishing for salmon Sept 16 to Dec 31 •Lytton to Williams Lake – No fishing for salmon Sept 23 to Dec 31 •Upstream of Williams Lake – No fishing for salmon Oct 1 to Dec 31 Chum management actions •Aug 29 to December 31 – 2 per day (Mission to Sawmill Cr); 4 per day (below Mission)

26 2015 Fraser River Catch Recreational

Recreational Chinook Coho Chum kept rel kept rel kept rel Lower Fraser 11,824 1,658 23 35 123 111 BC Interior - - 3,342 412 - -

• Kept coho reported in the Lower Fraser are from fisheries in the Nicomen Slough and Chilliwack/Vedder Rivers. • Lower Fraser catch information is preliminary

27 2015 Fraser River Fisheries First Nations Food, Social and Ceremonial Chinook-directed fisheries Lower Fraser –Open, with reduced fishing time, every second weekend for most groups from April 4 through August 1 –managed to reduced hours to maintain effort consistent with Zone 2 management Mid Fraser –limited Chinook 8-inch mesh in a few areas starting late April and directed Chinook with selective gear began June –Chinook fisheries with sockeye non-retention occurred from July 1 to 29 Thompson River Upstream of Bonaparte –licensed July 15 for Chinook/sockeye Upper Fraser –directed Chinook fisheries began June 1 with selective gear including angling and dip net –sockeye non-retention fisheries occurred during the Early Stuart closure with selective gear, including 8” mesh gillnets

28 2015 Fraser River Fisheries First Nations Food, Social and Ceremonial Sockeye-directed fisheries Lower Fraser – dry rack fisheries August 2 to 13 – Only one FSC opening from August 6 to Aug 9 Mid Fraser – sockeye/Chinook fisheries took place from July 30 to October 20 Upper Fraser – Deadman to Hixon: directed sockeye fishing with dipnets initiated Aug 4 – Upstream of Hixon: directed gillnet fishing initiated Aug 8 – limited retention in July in terminal areas with access to only Early Stuart Coho-directed fisheries - No coho-directed fisheries in 2015

29 2015 Fraser River Fisheries First Nations Food, Social and Ceremonial

Pink-directed fisheries Lower Fraser - Selective gear only due to IFC window closure - September 13, 20, 26–29

Chum-directed fisheries (Lower Fraser only) – FSC openings on weekends from Oct 10 to Nov 29

30 2015 Fraser River Fisheries First Nations Economic Opportunity and Demo Lower Fraser River Economic Opportunity Fisheries –No targeted sockeye salmon in 2015 –Targeted pink and chum salmon in 2015

Pink-directed fisheries occurred between September 22 – 25 –Sts’ailes targeting their own allocation plus, Tsawwassen, UFFCA and SFC allocations. –38,539 pink retained from combined allocation of 39,600 pink –233 coho and 484 sockeye released Chum-directed fisheries occurred between Oct 22 and Nov 6 –122,309 chum retained –bycatch of 526 coho, 22 chinook and 1 steelhead retained –2,867 coho, 644 Chinook, and 21 steelhead released

31 2015 Fraser River Fisheries First Nations Economic Opportunity and Demo Mid and Upper Fraser Demonstration fisheries Secwepemc Fisheries Commission

–South Thompson 41 Chinook on Kamloops Lake –Chinook 8 inch gillnet. Harvest was 2,493 chinook –bycatch mortalities of 1 coho and 554 Sockeye kept –Allocation of 3,100 Chinook for 2015

Upper Fraser Conservation Alliance –No fishery occurred in 2015 ( No sockeye CCTAC)

32 2015 Fraser River Catch - First Nations

Fraser River First Nations Chinook Coho Chum kept rel kept rel kept rel FSC Lower Fraser 20,373 73 329 118 36,273 59 BC Interior 3,339 90 55 - - -

Economic Opportunity Lower Fraser 22 1,481 526 2,867 122,309 600 BC Interior (Demo) 2,493 - - - - -

ESSR Lower Fraser 8,752 - 11,284 - 15,666 -

Total

Lower Fraser 29,147 1,554 12,139 2,985 174,248 659 BC Interior 5,832 90 55 - - -

Grand Total 34,979 1,644 12,194 2,985 174,248 659

Coho retention was permitted in all FSC fisheries in 2015.

33 Interior Fraser Coho

34 2015 Coho Management Approach

• CSAS scientific review to assess stock status and implications of exploitation rates on recovery objectives completed. • Current productivity still well below that in relatively high productivity period of 1978-1993; still in the low productivity period. • Based on the results of the simulations, exploitation rates exceeding 30% suggested there is lower than a 50% probability of achieving the short term conservation objective of 20,000 spawners (3-year geometric mean). • IFMP objective: The objective for Interior Fraser River coho (including Thompson River coho) is to limit the Canadian exploitation rate to 10% or less for the 2015 season only.

35 2015 Coho Planning

Pre-season and In-season Assessment of fishery impacts: •Interior Fraser coho fishing mortality is estimated pre-season and in-season using a series of models that integrate assumptions about anticipated coho encounters, fishing effort levels, estimates of proportion of Interior Fraser River coho stocks within the total encounters based on past data, and average release mortality rates. •There are two primary models used domestically: • Marine fisheries - Spreadsheet Model • Fraser River fisheries - Decay Model •The final in-season IFR Coho exploitation rate was planned to be ~8% for fisheries south of Cape Caution

36 2015 Coho Post Season Assessment

• Near final post season exploitation rate projections will be completed in March 2016 • The post season exploitation rate estimate is developed from the same models mentioned previously but using any actual information on encounter rates (kept and released) and fishing effort collected during the fishing season. • Timelines for the availability of data required: • Catch- February • Escapement- February

37 2015 South Coast Fishery Summary

38 39 2015 ECVI First Nations Fishery

•FSC fisheries targeting Fraser River sockeye began in late July and continued until August 12, 2015 at which time sockeye non-retention in FSC fisheries •FSC fisheries remained open to the retention of all other salmon species •Limited sockeye fishery resulted in some FSC harvest targeting other species, though still minimal

•JST ESSR at Quinsam Hatchery •SoG ESSR at Big Qualicum and Cowichan 40 2015 ECVI Commercial Pink Catch

Numbers Fishery Gear Fishery (Area) Kept Commercial Area H Troll Fraser Sockeye (12,13) 0 Area H Troll JST Chum (12,13) 24 Area H Troll MVI Chum (14) 0 Area B Seine Fraser Sockeye (12,13) 0 Area B Seine Fraser Sockeye (16) 0 Area B Seine Mainland Pink (12, 16) 95,198 Area B Seine JST Chum (12,13) 145 Area B Seine MVI Chum (14-19) 0 Area D Gillnet Fraser Sockeye (11,12,13,14) 0 Area D Gillnet JST Chum (12,13) 114 Area D Gillnet MVI Chum (14) 0 Area E Gillnet MVI Chum (Area 14-19) 0 Total Commercial Catch 95,481 41 2015 ECVI Commercial Chum Catch Commercial Chum Fishery

Numbers Fishery Gear Catches Fishery (Area) Kept Commercial Area H Troll Fraser Sockeye (12,13) 0 Area H Troll JST Chum (12,13) 48,544 Area H Troll MVI Chum (14) 2 Area B Seine Fraser Sockeye (12,13) 0 Area B Seine Fraser Sockeye (16) 0 Area B Seine Mainland Pink (12,16) 0 Area B Seine JST Chum (12,13) 352,502 Area B Seine MVI Chum (14-19) 183,033 Area D Gillnet Fraser Sockeye (11,12,13,14) 0 Area D Gillnet JST Chum (12,13) 91,795 Area D Gillnet MVI Chum (14) 12,812 Area E Gillnet MVI Chum (Area 14-19) 40,250 Total Commercial Catch 728,938 42 2015 ECVI Recreational Fishery

Chinook

• In 2015 management2013 measures Recreational were in effect to protect LGS and Fraser (SpringFisheries 42, Spring and Summer 52) as required. • Fraser Chinook - Zone 2 measures - only 1 chinook >67cm, JDF – March 1-July 17, SOG – May 4 – July 17. • Drought conditions closed terminal areas to salmon retention - protecting LGS chinook, Cowichan, Nanaimo, earlier than typical chinook non-retention timing. Coho • In 2015 Canada adopted an Interior Fraser Coho <10%, reducing some of the wild coho retention opportunities that were in place in recreational fisheries in 2014. • In 2015, opportunities for wild coho retention were permitted in: JS June 1- Dec 31, SOG Sept 11-Dec 31, Area 18/19 Oct 1-Dec 31. • Abundance and catch of coho was notably lower in nearly all marine fisheries compared with longer term averages. Sockeye • Marine recreational fisheries closed in 2015 in JS, SOG, JDF – low abundance of Fraser Sockeye Pink • Fraser Pink year, and although abundance was not as high as predicted, there were good recreational fisheries in ECVI, especially JDF.

Chum • Good chum abundances in ECVI, especially around Nanaimo, Cowichan and , but low recreational effort and catches in marine fisheries. 43 2015 ECVI Recreational Fisheries

Fishing Area Sockeye Sockeye Coho Kept Coho Pink Pink Chum Chum Chinook Chinook Chinook Chinook Kept Released Released Kept Released Kept Released ISBM Kept ISBM AABM Kept AABM Released Released

Juan de Fuca (19,20) 212 1,323 11,083 25,811 58,104 63,845 162 6 30,558 20,913 - - (13-19,28,29) 84 2,991 7,216 27,562 28,155 17,832 1,721 50 51,483 36,655 - - (11-12) 14 100 8,600 4,833 6,606 7,185 59 31 12,127 9,138 - - WCVI - Inshore (20W-27) 94,364 646 18,091 11,932 3,551 8,998 30 - 31,753 14,877 7,215 4,051 WCVI - Offshore (121-127) 225 63 7,716 17,699 2,533 9,203 49 7 - - 41,560 24,279 Fraser River 37 4,169 23 35 12,266 19,746 55 17 13,186 1,702 - - TOTAL 94,936 9,292 52,729 87,872 111,215 126,809 2,076 111 139,107 83,285 48,775 28,330 44 WCVI First Nations FSC/Treaty

•FSC/treaty fisheries targeting Somass sockeye stocks were successful. •Success in other fisheries were variable.

Chinook

Sockeye Coho Pink Chum Kept Kept Kept Kept ISBM AABM Kept Kept

39,394 1,917 5 2,246 2,019 3,946 45 WCVI Commercial - AABM Chinook

Pre-Season and Post-Season Total Allowable and Preliminary Catch Estimates for October 2014-September 2015 WCVI AABM Chinook Pre-Season Post-Season WCVI AABM Abundance Index 0.85 under review WCVI AABM chinook TAC* 127,278 under review AABM Sport Catch 60,000 48,775 First Nations Catch (FSC) 5,000 996** Maa-nulth First Nations Catch (FSC) 4,141 2,400** T’aaq-wiihak Catch 7,267 6,234 Area G Troll Catch 50,870* 54,338

Total AABM Catch 127,278 113,293

*The total Area G troll TAC is calculated as the difference between the WCVI AABM chinook TAC less offshore sport catch, NTC First Nations Expected FSC catch, Maa-nulth Domestic Allocation and T’aaq- wiihak allocation. **First Nations catch is preliminary. 46 WCVI Commercial - AABM Chinook

•Coho bycatch was Coho Bycatch Area G T'aaq-wiihak permitted to be retained Month-Year Retained Released Retained Released in AABM chinook fisheries Oct-14 10,422 9 Nov-14 0 0 after September 15 in Dec-14 0 0 Jan-15 1 0 2015 Feb-15 0 0 •Most of the Area G coho Mar-15 0 0 Apr-15 0 2 catch from the chinook May-15 0 808 Jun-15 calendar year occurred in Jul-15 0 1,161 Aug-15 23 1,011 0 519 October 2014 Sep-15 6,055 53 574 48 Total 16,501 1,883 574 1,728 47 WCVI Recreational Fishery Chinook2013 Recreational Fisheries • Management measures in place to reduce impacts on WCVI wild chinook were continued for WCVI area recreational fisheries. The WCVI chinook management corridor remained in effect all season with 2 fish under 77cm. • In addition, the chinook conservation corridor was expanded into all of Area 23 due to low forecast returns of 4 and 5 year old chinook at RCH. Starting August 1st in area 23 the daily limit was 2 chinook < 77cm. The restriction was changed to 2 chinook, 1 > 77cms prior to Labour Day based on in-season stock and fishery assessment. • Management measures in place to reduce impacts on LGS and Fraser (Spring

42, Spring and Summer 52) chinook were continued for the Juan de Fuca area fishery. 48 2015 WCVI and JDF Recreational Catch – Chinook

Chinook Fishing Area ISBM AABM Kept Rel. Kept Rel.

Juan de Fuca 30,558 20,913 - - (19,20)

WCVI - Inshore 31,753 14,877 7,215 4,051 (20W-27)

WCVI - Offshore - - 41,560 24,279 (121-127) 49 WCVI Recreational Fishery Coho • Some 2013of the wild coho Recreational retention opportunities that Fisheries were in place in recreational fisheries in 2014 were reduced to due lower allowable impacts in Interior Fraser coho. • In 2015, opportunities for wild coho retention were permitted only in inshore WCVI areas from 23-27. Wild retention was at full limits of 4/day. • Preliminary catch of coho in the WCVI area is estimated at 25,800; including . 7,700 and 18,000 from offshore and inshore areas, respectively.

Sockeye • The Area 23 recreational fishery opened May 1 to December 31. The preliminary estimated catch is approximately 88,000 sockeye. • In addition, there was an experimental freshwater sockeye fishery in the non- tidal area of Somass river with a total estimated catch of <500. 50 2015 WCVI and JDF Recreational Catch – Other spp.

Sockeye Coho Pink Chum Fishing Area Kept Rel. Kept Rel. Kept Rel. Kept Rel.

Juan de Fuca 212 1,323 11,083 25,811 58,104 63,845 162 6 (19,20)

WCVI - Inshore 88,232 646 18,091 11,932 3,551 8,998 30 - (20W-27)

WCVI - Offshore 225 63 7,716 17,699 2,533 9,203 49 7 (121-127) The End

51