The Politics and Diplomacy of the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan, 1980-1992
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The London School of Economics and Political Science A Long Goodbye: The Politics and Diplomacy of the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan, 1980-1992 Artemy Mikhail Kalinovsky A thesis submitted to the Department of International History of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, July 2009 1 UMI Number: U615706 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615706 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ***** \X \S * n Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best o f my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. Abstract This thesis explores the politics and diplomacy of Soviet efforts to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. Although Soviet leaders began looking for a way out of the conflict soon after the introduction of Soviet troops in December 1979, the war dragged on because Moscow was afraid o f the damage that a failure in Afghanistan could do to itsTeputatioiTas a leader ot the communist world and a Supporter of national liberation movements in the Third World. Even as Soviet diplomats engaged in international diplomacy in an effort to secure an agreement for a withdrawal, Moscow looked for ways to stabilise its client government in Kabul. This characterised Soviet policy in the region from 1979 onward, not only under the leadership of Leonid Brezhnev and Yuri Andropov, but even under the reform-minded Mikhail Gorbachev. In addition to providing a detailed study of an important and often-misinterpreted conflict, the thesis also situates the Soviet intervention within the growing body of scholarship seeking to understand the Cold War in global context, particularly with regard to the Third World. Thus the thesis focuses on the broader international dimensions of Soviet efforts in Afghanistan, particularly the relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union, while also showing that communist leaders in Afghanistan were often able to manipulate Soviet decision-making in support of their own internal rivalries. The thesis argues that ongoing Soviet involvement in Afghanistan in the 1980s must be seen in the context of the Kremlin’s official commitment to the Third World, despite the associated difficulties of such a policy. 3 “The day you get in and the day you get out.” -Avon Barksdale Acknowledgements Many debts are accumulated when one takes on a project like this. I would like to thank, first and foremost, my supervisors, Professor Anita Prazmowska and Professor Arne Westad. At George Washington University I was fortunate to have teachers who encouraged me to pursue graduate work and have provided commentary and advice on this project as it evolved; they are Professor Muriel Atkin, Professor James Hershberg, Professor Hope Harisson, and Dr. Svetlana Savranskaya. A number of people in the LSE Department of International History and beyond read chapters and provided invaluable advice and support along the way; they are Dr. Paul Keenan, Dr. Tanya Harmer, Dr. Sergei Radchenko, Dr. Arne Hofmann, Tom Field, Vladimir Unkovski- Korica, Brian Becker, and Taylor Asen. The Cold War Studies Centre/LSE IDEAS has been a home over the last three years, and I would like in particular to thank Jeff Byme, Lisa Aranson, and the Missile Defence Research Project at Columbia House. In Moscow Evgeny Golynkin and Alla Nikolaevna provided warm meals and a welcoming home during my research trips. A number of people assisted with locating sources and helping me reach interviewees, including Professor Vladimir Pechatnov, Professor Vladimir Shubin, and Professor Natalia Kapitonova. This project would have been impossible without the help of General Aleksandr Liakhovsky, who has done more than anyone to record the history of the Soviet war. Sadly he passed away in February 2009, a week before the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal. At the end of the day this project would not have been possible without the support and encouragement of those closest to me, and so it is my grandmother, my family, and Dayna I must thank, for thinking this was a good idea and reminding me of the same when I found it hard to believe, and for much much more. 4 Abbreviations cc Central Committee CDSP Current Digest of the Soviet Press CPSU Communist Party of the Soviet Union CRA Council of Religious Affairs (USSR) DRA Democratic Republic of Afghanistan DYOA Democratic Youth Organization of Afghanistan GARF State Archive of the Russian Federation GFA Gorbachev Foundation Archives GRU Main Intelligence Directorate (Soviet military intelligence) KGB Committee of State Security (USSR) KhAD State Information Services (DRA) INF Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces PDPA People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan RA Republic of Afghanistan RGAE Russian State Archive of the Economy RGANI Russian State Archive of Contemporary History SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty SAM Surface to Air Missile UNGOMAP United Nations Good Offices Mission in Afghanistan and Pakistan WAD Ministry of State Security Table of Contents List of Illustrations.................................................................................................7 Introduction............................................................................................................. 11 Historiography................................................................................ 13 Sources............................................................................................27 Thesis structure............................................................................... 31 Background to the invasion........................................................... 34 Chapter 1 Counter-insurgency and “nation-building” in Afghanistan, 1980-1985..............................................46 Entrapment...................................................................................... 47 Propaganda and limited diplomatic approaches......................... 56 Efforts for stabilization within Afghanistan................................61 Opposition to the intervention within the Soviet E lite ............. 68 Towards a UN role......................................................................... 74 Chapter 2 New Thinking, Old Commitments: Gorbachev and the Afghan W ar.................................87 Old Commitments and New Political Thinking......................... 89 A decision to withdraw, but not a plan........................................ 96 Fighting a limited war.................................................................... 105 Social effects of the war.................................................................116 Chapter 3 Reforming Counterinsurgency: The Replacement of Karmal and the National Reconciliation Campaign, 1986-87...........127 Exit Karmal, Enter Najib................................. ..............................129 National Reconciliation: A New Approach................................ 136 A return to diplomacy. ................................................................... 147 Disappointment.................................................................................. 153 Chapter 4 Superpower Relations and the Geneva Accords...........................164 The US-Soviet Relationship and Afghanistan................................ 165 Initiatives and Concessions............................................................... 172 Towards the Geneva Accords...........................................................182 Chapter 5 Politics and Diplomacy During the Withdrawal............................195 Making the best of the Geneva Accords: The Moscow Summit and after..............................................196 The KGB and Najibullah, the military and Massoud...................... 206 Prolonging the agony............................................................................218 Back over the Friendship Bridge......................................................... 225 Chapter 6 Aid, Politics and Diplomacy after the Withdrawal......................... 233 Setting a precedent for non-intervention: the battle for Jalalabad..............................................................235 Continuing diplomatic efforts: UN, Pakistan, and the US...............244 Dealing with the home front.................................................................254 Towards the final collapse.......................................... 260 Conclusion.......................................................................................................................260