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The China Challenge: a Strategic Vision for U.S.–India Relations Lisa Curtis and Dean Cheng

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The China Challenge: a Strategic Vision for U.S.–India Relations Lisa Curtis and Dean Cheng No. 2583 July 18, 2011 The China Challenge: A Strategic Vision for U.S.–India Relations Lisa Curtis and Dean Cheng Abstract: The U.S. should pursue robust strategic and military engagement with India in order to encourage a stable balance of power in Asia that prevents China from Talking Points dominating the region and surrounding seas. The U.S. and • U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to India share a broad strategic interest in setting limits to India this week for Strategic Dialogue talks China’s geopolitical horizons and can work together to sup- provides an opportunity to take India’s pulse port mutually reinforcing goals without becoming “allies” on China and discuss new diplomatic and in the traditional sense. The U.S. should support India’s security initiatives that will contribute to stabil- military modernization campaign, including its quest for ity in the region. increasingly sophisticated technologies, and develop new • The U.S. should pursue robust strategic and initiatives for keeping the Indian Ocean safe and secure. military engagement with India to encourage a stable balance of power in Asia that prevents Additionally, the U.S. should remain closely engaged with China from dominating the region and sur- the smaller South Asian states and temper any expecta- rounding seas. tions that the U.S. and China can cooperate in South Asia, • China’s increased assertiveness in the East and where India remains the predominant power. Although South China Seas and Yellow Sea has been India’s recent decision to forgo American planes to fulfill its accompanied by a hardening position on its fighter aircraft needs has added a dose of realism to Indo– border disputes with India. U.S. relations, the complex challenge presented by a rising • India’s decision to forgo American planes to China will inevitably drive the U.S. and India to elevate fulfill its fighter aircraft needs has added a ties and increase cooperation across a broad range of sec- dose of realism to Indo–U.S. relations, but the tors in years to come. complex challenge presented by a rising Chi- na will inevitably drive the U.S. and India to elevate ties and increase cooperation in years India is keeping a wary eye on China’s rapid global to come. ascent. Unresolved border issues that resulted in the Sino–Indian War of 1962 have been heating up again in recent years. Indian policymakers are scrambling to develop effective policies to cope with a rising China by simultaneously pursuing both a robust diplomatic This paper, in its entirety, can be found at: strategy aimed at encouraging peaceful resolution of http://report.heritage.org/bg2583 border disputes and forging strong trade and eco- Produced by the Asian Studies Center Published by The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002–4999 (202) 546-4400 • heritage.org Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. No. 2583 July 18, 2011 nomic ties and an ambitious military modernization and enhanced U.S.–Indian defense ties. Despite campaign that will build Indian air, naval, and mis- U.S. disappointment over India’s decision to de- sile capabilities. select two American companies from its Medium By bolstering its naval assets, India will solidify Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition, its position in the Indian Ocean and enhance its the U.S. is bound to conclude other major defense ability to project power into the Asia Pacific. New deals with India as it pursues an ambitious defense Delhi also will continue to boost its medium-range modernization campaign, which includes spending missile programs to deter Beijing and to strengthen plans of around $35 billion over the next five years. its air capabilities to deal with potential flare-ups Indeed, this year, the two sides finalized a deal along their disputed borders. worth nearly $4 billion for the U.S. to provide India Meanwhile, China has also been paying increas- with enough C-17 aircraft to give India the second- ing attention to India. China’s interests on its south- largest C-17 fleet in the world. Enhancing Indo– ern flank have led the People’s Liberation Army U.S. cooperation in maritime security in the Indian (PLA) to strengthen its forces in the Lanzhou and Ocean region is also an area of mutual interest that Chengdu Military Regions bordering India. is ripe for new initiatives. The U.S. must keep a watchful eye on the trend India’s rejection of the MMRCA has added a dose lines in Sino–Indian relations and factor these into of realism to Indo–U.S. relations and reminded its overall strategies in the broader Asia region. A U.S. officials that the burgeoning partnership will strong India able to hold its own against China is in not always reach the full expectations of either side. America’s interest. Still, the growing strategic challenge presented by a rising China will inevitably drive the U.S. and China’s increased assertiveness in the East and India to increase cooperation in defense and other South China Seas over the past year has been key sectors, such as space, maritime security, and accompanied by a hardening position on its bor- nuclear nonproliferation. der disputes with India. Last summer, India took the unprecedented step of suspending military ties What Drives Sino–Indian with China in response to Beijing’s refusal to grant Competition? a visa to an Indian Army general serving in Jammu The drivers of the current Indian–Chinese rivalry and Kashmir. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit are varied and complex. While China’s economy is to New Delhi last December helped tamp down several times larger than India’s and its conventional the disagreement, and military contacts have since military capabilities today outstrip India’s by almost resumed. Still, the incident shows the fragility of any comparison, Beijing has begun to take notice of the Sino–Indian rapprochement and the potential India’s growing global political and economic clout, for deepening tensions over the unresolved border as well as the broad-based American support for issues to escalate. expanding strategic ties with India. For its part, India, long suspicious of China’s close A strong India able to hold its own against China relations and military support for Pakistan, views an is in America’s interest. increased Chinese presence in northern Pakistan and expanded civil nuclear cooperation between Beijing and Islamabad as particularly worrisome. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Indian military strategists believe they must plan for India this week for Strategic Dialogue talks provides the possibility of a two-front war with Pakistan and an opportunity to take India’s pulse on China and China even as they actively seek dialogues with both to discuss new diplomatic and security initiatives to diminish the chances of such a dire scenario. that will contribute to maintaining a stable bal- At the same time, Chinese assessments of Indi- ance of power in Asia. The U.S. should demon- an military planning suggest a view in Beijing that strate support for Indian military modernization page 2 No. 2583 July 18, 2011 New Delhi sees China as a major threat. One Chi- In 2003, each side appointed “special represen- nese assessment concludes that the Indian military tatives”—national security adviser for India and sees Pakistan as the main operational opponent and vice foreign minister for China—to upgrade and China as a potential operational opponent. It also regularize their border discussions.2 Since then, the describes the Indians as seeing China and Pakistan two sides have clarified the mapping of the middle as closely aligned in threatening India.1 sector of their disputed frontiers (the border that The rivalry is also driven by the rapidly expanding demarcates the Indian state of Sikkim). However, resource requirements of each country, whose econ- there has been no exchange of maps of the eastern omies continue to grow steadily despite the global and western sectors under dispute. economic downturn. Competition over energy and China’s interest in consolidating its hold on water resources will increasingly shape the contours Tibet and its perceptions of India’s expanding glob- of their competition, as will each country’s efforts to al influence and closer ties to the U.S. have led Bei- expand trade and economic relations with countries jing to harden its position on its border disputes that are in the other’s traditional sphere of influence. with New Delhi over the past five years. China has increasingly questioned Indian sovereignty over Simmering Border Tensions the states of Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu and Long-standing border disputes between China Kashmir and has stepped up probing operations and India continue to cause friction between the two along different parts of their shared frontier. The countries despite ongoing border talks that started Chinese are also building up military infrastructure in the 1980s. India claims that China occupies more and expanding a network of road, rail, and air links than 14,000 square miles of Indian territory in the in the border areas. Aksai Chin along its northern border in Kashmir (commonly referred to as the western sector), while China lays claim to more than 34,000 square miles China’s interest in consolidating its hold on of India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh Tibet and its perceptions of India’s expanding (commonly referred to as the eastern sector). The global influence and closer ties to the U.S., have two sides fought a brief border war in 1962 after led Beijing to harden its position on its border China invaded the eastern and western sectors of disputes with New Delhi.
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