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OBSERVATIONS FROM AZERBAIJAN By Cameron S. Brown* This article examines several major political and cultural issues with which the citizens of Azerbaijan are currently grappling. It considers the role of the Nogorno-Karabakh conflict and its aftermath, irredentist claims made by some on Azerbaijani portions of Iran, the place of women in society, and the role of oil. Present in all these topics, however, is the common theme of how Turkish, Russian, Shi'a Muslim, and Western influences--as well as Azerbaijanis own history--are presently shaping the formation of the country's identity. Azerbaijan is an intriguing country, and language, closely related to the with 90 percent of its 8 million inhabitants of modern-day Turkey. inhabitants possessing a Turkic, Within their Soviet republic was the Russified, secular, Shi’a Muslim identity; autonomous Nogorno-Karabakh Oblast an identity shaped by their own history (or simply Karabakh). This province, and by a long sojourn in the Soviet which had long possessed an Armenian Union. Although Azerbaijan has long ethnic majority (in 1920, Christian prospered from its oil wealth, the country Armenians were estimated to constitute has suffered numerous setbacks over the 94 percent of the population), was first past decade due to its long and desperate attached to the Baku province by Russia war in Nogorno-Karabakh. in 1846, though it eventually gained On a recent visit, all these aspects autonomy within Azerbaijan in 1923.(1) were clearly visible and continuing to When the USSR divided the Caucasus shape Azerbaijan. What is less obvious— region into separate republics in 1936, and yet very important in the Middle East Karabakh remained part of Azerbaijan.(2) context—is how Azerbaijan’s situation is In 1987, a few years before the affecting its neighbors and near- breakup of the Soviet Union, the neighbors. neighboring Armenian republic tried to bring Karabakh under its control, a move THE PRIMACY OF THE that sparked off over two years of KARABAKH ISSUE massive demonstrations and strikes Inevitably, the foremost political issue across Azerbaijan and Armenia.(3) The on the minds of most Azerbaijanis is the tension burst open several times as future of the Armenian-occupied clashes broke out in several locations, Nogorno-Karabakh area and how so followed by mutual mass emigrations of much of the country seems ready to go to Azerbaijanis and Armenians, most war in order to reconquer these lost lands notably on February 27-9, 1988 and should political negotiations fail. Left January 13-4, 1990.(4) over from the end of the Soviet era, the In an attempt to end the controversy, problem is pivotal in shaping the national Moscow decided in January 1989 to take consciousness and policies of Azerbaijan direct control over the disputed region. today. As the Soviet Union disintegrated in Azerbaijanis (or Azeris) are a Shi’a 1990-1991, the conflict turned into an all- Muslim group of Turkish ethnic origin out war, with Armenian forces (both from 66 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 4 (December 2002) Observations from Azerbaijan Karabakh and the Armenian Republic) in the U.S. Congress, and Israel’s own taking Karabakh and a large portion of problems vis-à-vis Iranian-Russian surrounding Azerbaijani land. As a result, collaboration. Still, while Azerbaijan has by the time the last ceasefire was signed welcomed Israeli assistance on several in 1994, 20 percent of Azerbaijan was fronts and allowed for an Israeli embassy occupied by Armenia and an estimated to open in Baku, Azerbaijan has refrained 750,000 Azeris had become refugees, in from opening a counterpart in Israel, addition to the thousands of Armenian despite Foreign Minister Vilayat refugees.(5) Guliyev’s pledge to do so by 2002. Part of the Armenians’ success came Generally, those who strongly believe in from the better training and equipment a pan-Turkic or pro-Western strategic that they received from their many years alignment see strengthening relations of service in the Soviet army, an with Israel as an imperative, while the institution where relatively few government worries about the Arab Azerbaijanis made their careers. No less reaction. As one newspaper columnist in critical, however, was the $1 billion of Baku wrote, “Everybody knows well that military aid given to Armenia by Russia Israel is… one of the few countries, with during the war, and at a few critical which Azerbaijan has only positive moments, the support of the 366th experiences…. It is high time for regiment of the former Red Army.(6) Azerbaijan to dare have its own path.”(7) Azerbaijan continues to be gripped by Azerbaijan must take into account a this issue of regaining Karabakh. The balance of forces that does not promise high costs and domestic political effect of easy victory in any future war over so many refugees keeps the problem alive Karabakh. At the same time, with little as well. All foreign policy issues are promise that the issue will be resolved assessed in light of their effect on the through negotiations in the near future, Karabakh question. Alliances are the will to go to war and justification for measured in this context, too. The general sacrifices on behalf of this issue is very strategic outlook in Azerbaijan is that much present in Azerbaijani political life. Armenia is its main adversary, with both Russia and Iran supporting that country. IRREDENTISM ACROSS THE Only Turkey is seen as clearly backing ARAZ RIVER Azerbaijan, though the United States is Another foreign policy issue which generally seen as supportive of its has long resounded in Azerbaijan, though territorial claims. for the time being has been left largely to But while the U.S. administration of the arena of rhetorical declarations, is the President Bill Clinton was fairly question of the large Azerbaijani minority sympathetic, for the first few years of the in northwestern Iran, where an estimated conflict the U.S. Congress was decisively 75 percent of all Azeris live. The political pro-Armenian. As the war raged on, potential of this issue can be seen by the Congress even went so far as to impose fact that many Azerbaijanis refer to this sanctions on Azerbaijan in Section 907 of area as “Southern Azerbaijan.” The fact the Freedom Support Act (1992), which that this minority group also comprises, banned direct aid to the Azeri according to wildly varying estimates, government and restricted American 20-40 percent of all Iranians makes this a governmental assistance to Azerbaijan. potentially destabilizing issue for that Israel is another potential strategic ally country as well.(8) contemplated by Azerbaijan, especially Drawing on their experience with the attractive to the leadership due to Israel’s dissolution of the Soviet Union, a number military, technological, and economic of scholars and laymen alike believe that prowess, its pro-Western outlook and Iran’s considerable ethnic heterogeneity close relations with Turkey, its influence make that state destined for Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 4 (December 2002) 67 Cameron S. Brown disintegration. With Iran’s Azeri- without distinction--as if they were both inhabited provinces border the part of the same Azerbaijan.(13) Azerbaijani Republic, should that Iran Starting in the period immediately break apart, the two areas could then preceding Azerbaijani independence in easily merge into a “united Azerbaijan.” the 1990s and lasting until today, In particular, the former president of Azerbaijanis have taken an increased Azerbaijan and long-time pro-Turk interest in their southern brethren. There nationalist, Abulfaz Elchibey, was a have been numerous articles published in strident proponent of this idea until his the last decade comparing the habits of death in 2000.(9) the two Azerbaijans, as well as The origin of this issue actually begins differences in language.(14) Many of the with the Treaties of Gulustan (1813) and same nationalist political parties that Turkmanchay (1828) signed after were especially active on the Karabakh Russian victories against Iran. As a result issue even went so far as to call in 1989 of these treaties, the northern section of for the “restoration of ethnic unity of Azerbaijan became part of the Russian Azerbaijanis living on both sides of the empire, and the southern section of border.”(15) Azerbaijan (divided physically by the Unfortunately for the Azeris, this Araz River) remained with Iran. claim has two major problems. Firstly, by While families and friends remained suggesting that Iran’s borders are not in contact, and despite expressions of sacred, Azerbaijan delegitimizes its own Azeri solidarity with their co-ethnics on claim to Karabakh. This is because the the Iranian side of the border, the issue of Azeri claim to Karabakh is not that the political unification was largely off the area in question had an Azeri ethnic table as most Azerbaijanis deemed it to majority (indeed, in that region they were be outside the realm of possibility. This is a one-third minority), but rather that not to suggest that the desire for Armenia’s Karabakh irredentism unification was absent during this period. infringes on Azerbaijan’s territorial On the contrary, Azerbaijani leaders like integrity, a territory whose sanctity is Nasib bay Ussubekov, one of the recognized by virtually all international prominent activists of the Musavat party bodies and especially the UN. that led Azerbaijan to its short-lived Since state borders are sacred, independence in 1918, even expressed Azerbaijan claims, Karabakh cannot reservations about declaring a state in the become independent nor can it be Russian-held Azerbaijan without annexed to Armenia. Thus, when certain incorporating the Iranian portion as Azerbaijanis claim that ethnic well.(10) demographics in Iran should determine Numerous writers throughout the borders, they are demonstrating that their twentieth century, most notably among claim on Karabakh is not based on a them the head of the Soviet Azerbaijan’s deep-rooted acceptance of the notion of Writers’ Union, Mirza Ibrahimov, set international legitimacy and the many of their works in Iranian inviolability of a country’s borders.