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Initiating Coverage Initiating Coverage (Member of Alliance Bank group) PP7766/03/2013 (032116) Media Prima Neutral 3 October 2012 Media Bloomberg Ticker: MPR MK | Bursa Code: 4502 Analyst Toh Woo Kim A diversified media conglomerate [email protected] +603 2604 3917 Against a backdrop of slower adex growth in 2013, we initiate coverage on Media Prima with a NEUTRAL recommendation and TP of RM2.52 based on target P/E of 12x FY13 earnings. Unresolved Eurozone debt crisis, lack of major adex-friendly events, and 12-month upside potential potential subsidy rationalisation post general election are expected to crimp overall adex Target price 2.52 growth in 2013, impacting the more sensitive TV segment of Media Prima, but fortunately Current price (as at 2 Oct) 2.38 Capital upside (%) 5.9 balanced out by its still growing Malay-language newspapers in the print segment. Key Net dividends (%) 5.1 catalyst for Media Prima will be introduction of new channels upon full implementation of Total return (%) 11.0 DTTB, while Astro’s potential aggressive move to grow its TV adex will be a key risk. Net dividend yield for Media Prima is expected to be about 5.1%, which is decent and comparable to peers. Key stock information Syariah-compliant? Yes TV – The dominant market leader Market cap (RM m) 2,569 Media Prima has an overall TV viewership share of 46%, giving it a dominant position in Issued shares (m) 1,079 Free float (%) 65 the TV segment. Free-to-air (FTA) TV adex has been growing faster and taking market 52-week high / low (RM) 2.66 / 1.96 share from newspapers since 2005. Over the years, the relaxation of the rules and 3-mth avg volume (‘000) 1,708 guidelines on advertisements has encouraged the growth of TV advertising in Malaysia. 3-mth avg turnover (RM m) 4.0 Given strong pricing power due to its dominant position, Media Prima is able to hike its advertising rates from time to time, allowing it to fully capitalise on an industry uptrend. Share price performance Even during a challenging period for adex, Media Prima is still able to selectively raise its 1M 3M 6M ad rates by 5-10%, particularly for prime time slots. Absolute (%) 0.4 10.5 -6.4 Relative (%) 0.1 8.1 -9.3 Newspapers – NSTP gaining grounds Backed by favourable demographics and rising literacy rate, Malay-language newspapers Share price chart are actually seeing an upward trend in their overall daily circulation vs. flat or slight decline for English/Chinese-language newspapers. This is largely led by Media Prima flagship tabloid newspaper, Harian Metro. Media Prima has been raising its advertising rates for Harian Metro above industry average, catching up with Star’s rates. Despite that, its rates are still 15-20% below Star currently, indicating there is still room for rates to increase further. Digital TV – Opening up new possibilities The full implementation of digital terrestrial TV broadcasting (DTTB) will enable Media Prima to introduce new channels and more advertising slots. Given Media Prima’s track record in growing new channels and effective segmentation strategy, we believe any revenue cannibalisation of its existing channels could be minimised. Having more channels and more contents will also help Media Prima to compete more effectively Major shareholders % with Astro for TV viewership share. Employees Provident Fund 18.4 Amanah Raya Bhd 11.4 Kumpulan Wang Pesaraan 5.2 Astro to grow its TV adex aggressively? Harris Associates 5.0 With the introduction of free satellite TV service NJOI, we believe Astro is planning to grow its adex revenue aggressively in order to compensate for the lack of growth in its pay-TV subscription service. If NJOI was to take off very successfully, this would give certain Astro channels at least 80% household penetration. With that kind of reach, Astro could become a bigger player in the TV adex market, a risk to Media Prima current dominant position. Valuation and recommendation We value Media Prima at RM2.52 based on target P/E of 12x FY13 earnings, in line with its historical average and our target P/E for the sector. Hence, we initiate coverage on Media Prima with a NEUTRAL recommendation. Net dividend yield for Media Prima is expected to be about 5.1%, which is decent and comparable to peers. All required disclosure and analyst certification appear on the last two pages of this report. Additional information is available upon request. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission Initiating Coverage | Media Prima | 3 October 2012 SNAPSHOT OF FINANCIAL AND VALUATION METRICS Figure 1 : Key financial data FYE 31 Dec FY10 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Revenue (RM m) 1,546.6 1,622.1 1,681.8 1,728.0 1,795.1 EBITDA (RM m) 418.0 398.5 412.8 426.0 450.8 EBIT (RM m) 317.4 300.9 313.4 326.3 350.9 Pretax profit (RM m) 295.3 279.5 292.0 306.1 331.9 Reported net profit (RM m) 242.3 207.7 214.0 224.4 243.3 Core net profit (RM m) 242.3 207.7 214.0 224.4 243.3 EPS (sen) 24.1 19.4 20.0 21.0 22.8 Core EPS (sen) 24.1 19.4 20.0 21.0 22.8 Alliance / Consensus (%) 109.4 104.8 102.6 Core EPS growth (%) 16.8 (19.2) 3.1 4.8 8.4 P/E (x) 9.9 12.2 11.9 11.3 10.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.2 ROE (%) 22.9 16.0 15.4 15.2 15.5 Net gearing (%) Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net DPS (sen) 10.0 16.0 12.0 12.6 13.7 Net dividend yield (%) 4.2 6.7 5.1 5.3 5.7 BV/share (RM) 1.22 1.28 1.36 1.44 1.53 P/B (x) 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg Figure 2 : Forward P/E trend Figure 3 : Forward P/B trend 4.5 21 PE (x) PB (x) 4.0 18 3.5 +1sd = 14.9x +1sd = 3.0x 15 3.0 12 Avg = 10.8x 2.5 Avg = 2.0x 2.0 9 -1sd = 6.8x 1.5 6 -1sd = 1.0x 1.0 3 0.5 0 0.0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg Figure 4 : Peer comparison Target Share Net Dividend price price Mkt Cap EPS Growth (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Yield (%) Company Call (RM) (RM) (RM m) CY12 CY13 CY12 CY13 CY12 CY13 CY12 CY13 CY12 CY13 Media Chinese International Buy 1.84 1.64 2,767.1 3.8 3.3 14.2 13.8 3.3 3.8 23.5 27.5 4.4 4.4 Media Prima Neutral 2.52 2.38 2,568.5 3.1 4.8 11.9 11.3 1.8 1.7 14.8 14.6 5.1 5.3 Star Publications Neutral 3.12 3.16 2,333.9 -7.3 10.9 13.5 12.2 2.1 2.0 15.7 16.6 5.7 6.2 Average 7,669.4 0.0 6.1 13.2 12.4 2.4 2.5 18.2 19.9 5.0 5.2 Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg Share price date: 20 September 2012 2 Initiating Coverage | Media Prima | 3 October 2012 A diversified media conglomerate Figure 5 : Media Prima group structure Source: Company Transformation over the years Media Prima has built its media Media Prima has transformed by leap and bounds over the years since its establishment empire via several M&As over the pursuant to the de-merger exercise of Malaysian Resources Corporation Bhd in 2003. years Starting with just a free-to-air (FTA) TV station and a 43%-stake in NSTP, Media Prima’s main media assets have now grown to four FTA TV stations, a higher 98%-stake in NSTP, three radio stations, and four outdoor advertising companies. These have been done through several M&A exercises (see Figure 6). Figure 6 : M&A activities of Media Prima since its establishment in 2003 Period Acquisitions Platform August 2003 De-merger exercise with 100% stake in TV3 TV August 2003 De-merger exercise with 43% stake in NSTP Print January 2004 Acquired 80% equity stake in Merit Idea S/B, which was TV launched as 8TV April 2005 Acquires 75% stake in Max Airplay S/B, which was launched as Radio Fly.fm September 2005 Acquires 100% of CH-9 Media S/B, the operator of TV9 TV December 2005 Acquires 100% of Natseven TV S/B, the operator of ntv7 TV December 2005 Acquires 100% of Syncrosound Studio S/B, which was launched Radio as Hot.fm November 2006 Acquired 70% stake in Big Tree Outdoor Outdoor February 2007 Acquired 100% stake in UPD Outdoor February 2007 Acquired 100% stake in TRC from NSTP Outdoor March 2007 Acquired the remaining 30% stake in Big Tree Outdoor Outdoor June 2007 Acquired the remaining 20% stake in 8TV TV January 2009 Acquired 80% stake in Radio Wanita S/B and rebrands to Radio One.fm December 2010 Acquired the remaining 55% stake in NSTP Print December 2010 Acquired the remaining 25% stake in Fly.fm Radio May 2011 Acquired 100% stake in Kurnia Outdoor Outdoor Source: Company, Alliance Research 3 Initiating Coverage | Media Prima | 3 October 2012 Dominant position in FTA TV and Malay-language newspaper in Malaysia Excluding government-owned channels (RTM and Al-Hijrah), Media Prima virtually has a monopoly on all privately-held FTA TV stations in Malaysia.
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