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International Trends Analysis – Yearbook 2007 Håkan Edström & Åke Wiss (eds.) International InternationalTrends Analysis Trends Analysis Yearbook 2007 Yearbook 2007 HÅKAN EdstrÖM & ÅKE Wiss (eds.) With an introduction to the ART-model ACTORS REGIONS THEMES FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 per- sonnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden’s largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fields such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. FOI-R--2361--SE User Report Defence Analysis FOI ISSN 1650-1942 December 2007 Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 555 030 00 www.foi.se Division of Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 555 031 00 FOI-R--2361--SE User report Defence Analysis SE- 164 90 Stockholm ISSN 1650-1942 December 2007 International Trends Analysis – Yearbook 2007 With an introduction to the ART-model Håkan Edström & Åke Wiss (eds.) 3 Titel Omvärldsanalys – Årsbok 2007 Title International Trends Analysis – Yearbook 2007. With an introduction to the ART-model Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--2361--SE Rapporttyp Användarrapport Report Type User Report Sidor/Pages 202 pages Månad/Month December Utgivningsår/Year 2007 ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Forskningsområde 2. Operationsanalys, modellering och simulering Programme area 2. Operational Research, Modelling and Simulation Delområde 22. Metod och utredningsstöd Subcategory 22. Operational Analysis and Support Projektnr/Project no E11102 Godkänd av/Approved by Anders Almén FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency Division of Defence Analysis SE- 164 90 Stockholm SWEDEN Preface By Åke Wiss The present yearbook is published within the framework of the international trends analysis subarea within the FoRMA project, at FOI. It was produced in cooperation with the Swedish Armed Forces Long Term Planning process. Below is a short presentation of FOI and of FoRMA. FOI – Swedish Defence Research Agency FOI is a chiefly assignment-funded agency under the Swedish Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research and method and technology development for defence and security purposes. The organisation employs around 1,000 people, of which 800 are researchers. This makes FOI the largest research institute in Sweden. FOI gives its clients access to leading expertise within a large number of fields such as security policy studies and analyses in defence and security, assessment of different types of threats, systems for managing and handling crises, protection against and handling of dangerous substances, IT security, and the potential of new sensors. FoRMA – Support to Swedish Armed Forces Long Term Planning The FoRMA project at FOI is run in close cooperation with the Swedish Armed Forces long term planning activities, and is carried out by a number of relatively independent working groups. The overall purpose is to support long term planning with analyses and studies with a longer view, or with secondary studies requiring more in-depth and extensive analysis and method work. The project’s main tasks are presented below. Besides international trends analysis, the FoRMA project shall: • Support long term planning in the planning, arrangement and analyses of war gaming activities. • Contribute to the development of methods and models for economic analyses in connection with long term planning, as well as – in order to be able to develop such methods and models – to an improved process for producing supporting documentation, to method documentation and method considerations, competence building and competence supply. • Support the work to optimise the force structure development process within long term planning. • Support the long term planning process with respect to the following, and related, issues: - How should the Armed Forces handle capabilities that are not part of present operational requirements but which might be needed in the future? - How should the Armed Forces guarantee the ability to transform a current defence force structure into a future structure with a different – or at least partly different – composition and size, if future developments demand this? 5 • Support the work on unit and equipment data sheets. This means developing a method for calculating material costs for unit data sheets, as well as suggesting a process for developing data sheets. • Make an inventory of how defence planning – primarily long term defence planning – is performed in other countries and, where applicable, in international organisations. International trends analysis The task of international trends analysis is to study and identify possible international development trends in subject areas which can be conflict generating or conflict driving. The perspective is 20 years, i.e. developments until around 2027. The subject areas are selected from three overall subject categories: actors, regions and themes; see Chapter 1 for further information. The supporting documentation that is built up in international trends analysis should be applicable as part of the supporting documentation used in the creation of future scenarios, and should also constitute knowledge accumulation in the international trends analysis area. It should also be usable in future in-depth efforts, e.g. crosswise analyses in which a region, a theme or a player is looked at from the point of view of supporting documentation in a number of the areas specified above, or which have been studied in the preceding year. One purpose of the material from the international trends analysis is to form the foundation for the development of planning scenarios. These are based on a synthesis of, among other things, the areas studied in the international trends analysis, military technology, combat forces and combat force development, and supporting documentation from other organisations. The planning scenarios are only one example of possible international or conflict developments. It is important, therefore, to put together a suitably sized “portfolio” of reasonable and high-level scenarios. These scenarios are intended to serve as a basis for the future planning of the Armed Forces as well as to highlight interesting choices of direction for the Armed Forces. This book This book contains examples of studies selected from the three overall subject categories: actors, regions and theme. The authors are from FOI, the Swedish Armed Forces Head Quarters and different Swedish universities. The result from the triangulation in chapter 9 was part of the information used in the Swedish Armed Forces force structure generation process. The result was initially used for generating planning scenarios. These planning scenarios were then used for studying how different force structures managed different tasks. Finally a synthesis was performed, including risk assessments and the production requirement of military units. Tolkcentralen in Göteborg translated Chapters 2 and 9 and reviewed the language of all the contributions in this yearbook. The editors would like to thank Carin Dahlberg, FOI, for her help with the layout. 6 CONTENTS Preface Part I - Introduction Chapter 1: The ART-model & the New Strategic Settings Part II - The Actor-perspective Chapter 2: The USA: Trends in security and domestic policy 2005-2025 Part III - The Regional-perspective Chapter 3: The Future of Armed Conflicts in Africa Part IV - The Thematic-perspective Chapter 4 (Political Theme): Regional Integration & Regional Disparity – Keeping the world together Chapter 5 (Economic Theme): EU trade policy in the future: Contributing to peace or war? Chapter 6 (Military Theme): The future of military interventions - Who, why and where? Chapter 7 (Societal Theme): Conflict in Africa and the role of ethnic minorities: Looking to the future decade of 2017-2027 Chapter 8 (Ecological Theme): Waste and used nuclear fuel: Conflict aspects and risks Part V - The Result of the Triangulation Chapter 9: Strategic developments in the global context 7 8 Part I Introduction Chapter 1: The ART-model & the New Strategic Settings By Håkan Edström 10 Chapter 1 The ART-model & the New Strategic Settings By Håkan Edström 1. Introduction The problem this chapter is focused on is the impact from the new strategic settings when it comes to conduct long term planning. In the pages to come I will try to outline the raw model, based on the principles of triangulation, that was used by the Swedish Armed Forces in its long term planning in the years 2005-2007. The model has three perspectives: • The global Actors and the relations between them (A) • The Regionalization going on all around the globe (R) • The Thematic dimension, which is not necessarily actor related (T) ACTORS REGIONS THEMES Figure 1.1: The ART triangulation model The ART model is far from complete. At least two important circumstances have to be taken into account when the reader forms his/her opinion of the model: • Although it seems to be reasonable to argue that globalization, and especially regionalization, have had an enormous impact on the theories of international relations (IR), the theoretical evolution
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