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Political Atlas of the Modern World PREPRINT Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO — University) Institute for Public Projects Expert Magazine POLITICAL ATLAS OF THE MODERN WORLD An Experiment in Multidimensional Statistical Analysis of the Political Systems of Modern States Edited by Andrei Melville Moscow MGIMO — University Press 2009 32 Ф02 P80 © Authors, 2009 © MGIMO — University, 2009 © Institute for Public Projects, 2009 All rights reserved Authors: Andrei Melville, Mikhail Ilyin, Elena Meleshkina, Mikhail Mironyuk, Yuri Polunin, Ivan Timofeev, Yan Vaslavskiy English translation: Igor Romashkevich, Yan Vaslavskiy, Mikhail Mironyuk, and Ivan Timofeev Diagrams: Vitaly Kabernik Design and make-up: Anna Tumanova and Nikolai Vinnik Political Atlas of the Modern World: An Experiment in Multidimensional Statistical Analysis of the Political Systems of Modern States / Andrei Melville (ed.), Institute for Public Projects, Expert Magazine. MGIMO — University Press, Moscow, 2009. xx pp. Includes bibliographical references, name and country indices ISBN 978-5-9228-0519-3 The monograph “Political Atlas of the Modern World: An Experiment in Multidimensional Statistical Analysis of the Political Systems of Modern States” highlights the findings of an innovative research project undertaken by the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO — University) jointly with the Institute for Public Projects, with support from the Expert magazine. The project sets out to undertake a global comparative study of 192 sovereign states of the modern world, and to develop their typologies based on a multidimensional statistical analysis. The book offers a survey of precedents using quantitative methods to conduct a comparative study of political systems, a description of methodological tools, and key research outcomes. The results are presented as country rankings awarded according to five indices (stateness, external and internal threats, potential of international influence, quality of life, and institutional basis of democracy), classifications based on the principal components method and multilevel clustering of the world’s nations on different scales, illustrated with tables and diagrams. A whole chapter looks at Russia’s place in the world in comparison with other nations. We have to note that the project results reflect the pre-crisis world. The global economic crisis brings about profound changes on global and national levels. The post-crisis world is to be studied at the upcoming stages of our project. The book is intended to be a useful tool for researchers, politicians, journalists, and all those who take an interest in current issues related to stateness, democracy, international relations, and the latest advances in political science. It can also serve as a reference book for graduate and post- graduate students. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................................. 7 CHAPTER 1. Theoretical and Methodological Grounds of the Project ....................................................10 1.1. Comparative Analysis Methods ..........................................................................................................................10 1.1.1. What Makes This Project Different ..................................................................................................................10 1.1.2. Our Point of Departure ..........................................................................................................................................11 1.1.3. Universal and Case Study Comparisons .......................................................................................................13 1.1.4. Data Sources ................................................................................................................................................................16 1.2. Methods of Multidimensional Statistical Analysis .......................................................................................17 1.2.1. Generic Problems and Methodological Constraints ............................................................................17 1.2.2. Indices, Ratings, and Discriminant Analysis .............................................................................................19 1.2.3. Principal Components Method .........................................................................................................................20 1.2.4. Cluster Analysis ..........................................................................................................................................................22 1.3. Overview of Precedents .........................................................................................................................................23 1.3.1. Universal Comparisons Using Quantitative Analysis Methods ......................................................23 1.3.2. UNDP Human Development Index ..................................................................................................................25 1.3.3. Polity Projects .............................................................................................................................................................26 1.3.4. Tatu Vanhanen Project ............................................................................................................................................29 1.3.5. Typology of Non-Socialist Countries (An Experiment in Multidimensional Statistical Analysis of Economies): Project of the USSR Academy of Sciences .....................34 1.3.6. Globalization Index: Joint Project of A. T. Kearney. Consultancy and Foreign Policy Magazine .......................................................................................................................................................................36 1.3.7. Bertelsmann’s Transformation Index..............................................................................................................37 1.3.8. Global Competitiveness Index: A Project of the World Economic Forum ................................38 1.3.9. Project of the Cato Institute: Economic Freedom of the World .....................................................39 1.3.10. Transparency International’s Global Rankings ......................................................................................41 1.3.11. Projects of Freedom House ...............................................................................................................................43 1.3.12. Freedom of the Press Index from Reporters without Borders (Reporters sans Frontières) .................................................................................................................................................................47 CHAPTER 2. An Experiment in Classification of the Political Systems of Modern States ...............50 2.1. Indices: Rationale and Structure .........................................................................................................................50 2.1.1. Stateness Index ..........................................................................................................................................................50 National Currency Pegging Regime ........................................................................................................................................63 2.1.2. External and Internal Threats Index ...............................................................................................................65 Threat of Armed Aggression (according to official assessments) ................................................. 69 Territorial Claims by Foreign States ......................................................................................................... 70 Threat of Terrorism ........................................................................................................................................ 71 Presence of Illegal Separatist or Anti-Government Movements ................................................... 73 Presence of Legal Secessionist Movements ......................................................................................... 73 Attempts at Unconstitutional Change of Government or Coups ................................................. 74 Undiversified Exports — Domination (50 percent or more) of One or Two Primary Commodities .................................................................................................................... 75 Chronic Current Account Deficit .............................................................................................................. 76 Dependence on Fuel Imports .................................................................................................................... 77 Undernourishment and Famine (Deficiency of Food Intake under FAO Recommended Minimum Requirement) ......................................................................... 77 Improved Water Shortages ......................................................................................................................... 79 HIV/AIDS Epidemics ...................................................................................................................................... 81 Depopulation .................................................................................................................................................
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