Germany's New Security Demographics Military Recruitment in the Era of Population Aging
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Demographic Research Monographs Wenke Apt Germany's New Security Demographics Military Recruitment in the Era of Population Aging 123 Demographic Research Monographs A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Editor-in-chief James W. Vaupel Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/5521 Wenke Apt Germany’s New Security Demographics Military Recruitment in the Era of Population Aging Wenke Apt ISSN 1613-5520 ISBN 978-94-007-6963-2 ISBN 978-94-007-6964-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-6964-9 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg New York London Library of Congress Control Number: 2013952746 © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 This work is subject to copyright. 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Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) F o r e w o r d This volume, Germany’s New Security Demographics: Military Recruitment in the Era of Population Aging by Dr. Wenke Apt, is the eleventh book of a series of Demographic Research Monographs published by the Springer Verlag. Dr. Apt is currently working as a scientifi c coordinator and consultant at the department of “Demographic Change and Futures Studies” at VDI/VDE-IT, a project managing agency for the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany. From 2009 to 2011, she worked as a researcher in the “International Security” division of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs – SWP). She is a graduate of Duke University and the European Doctoral School of Demography. This book is based on her doctoral dissertation, which she completed at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and defended at the University of Potsdam in 2010. This revised version includes new fi ndings and developments, in particular with regard to the suspension of compulsory military service in Germany in 2011. The book focuses on the impact of demographic change on military recruitment. The fi rst chapter sets the stage by introducing the research framework of military manpower demand and supply, and by reviewing new demographic constraints to foreign policymaking. Chapter 2 then provides a detailed account of the military environment, including a discussion of the economic, technological, socio-cultural and geostrategic environments, and about the military roles, missions, and organiza- tion. In Chap. 3 , Dr. Apt considers how demographic change may affect national security, and in Chap. 4 , she discusses the types of manpower needed by the mili- tary. These chapters are based on a thorough review and thoughtful assessment of the literature. In Chap. 5 , the book presents the results of elaborate, multivariate, statistical analyses carried out to study the determinants of military manpower supply. The statistical inference represents the core of the quantitative analysis undertaken by Dr. Apt. This analysis is noteworthy for three reasons: it is apparently the fi rst such analysis of its kind undertaken for Germany; it is carefully done with thoughtful caveats whenever appropriate; and the fi ndings are of considerable interest and value. In Chap. 6 , Dr. Apt uses demographic trends to forecast the manpower v vi Foreword available for military recruitment in 2030. Finally, in Chap. 7 , she summarizes her fi ndings with an emphasis on how demographic change may constrain the range of available foreign policy options and reviews best practices of military recruitment. This book is impressive in its careful discussion of the wide range of issues that must be considered when evaluating the implications of demographic change on military manpower opportunities and hence on German foreign policy overall. This book is not only a substantial effort of literature review with more than 400 references plus extensive statistical analysis – it is a pioneering endeavor of such review and analysis. There has been no research in any country comparable to this work; there has been no unifi ed analysis of the interrelationships between demographic change and national security. In particular, nothing approaching the scope of this work has been attempted for Germany. The issues that Dr. Apt addresses are of fundamental signifi cance to Germany, and the severe problems that she foresees are critically important. Given the synoptic scope of this book, the judicious comparison of alternative arguments and perspectives, the careful interpretation of statistical analyses and forecasting models, and the innovative effort to study how demographic change will affect foreign and security policy, this book is an important scientifi c contribution to interdisciplinary knowledge at the interface of demography and security studies. It draws on theories, data and concepts of demography, sociology, economics and foreign affairs. Its fi ndings will be of interest for scholars and students in these fi elds – and beyond. Furthermore, her fi ndings will provide useful insights to analysts and decision-makers in the fi eld of foreign policy. This book is not the fi nal word, as Dr. Apt stresses in her cautious warnings about limitations imposed by lack of data and uncertainties resulting from disagreements among experts. It is, however, an impressive start on the kind of comprehensive, analytical studies that are needed to put the interrelationship of demography and foreign policy on a fi rmer foundation of fact and knowledge. Rostock, Germany and Odense, Denmark James W. Vaupel June 2013 Editor-in-Chief Acknowledgements This book is a selective and updated version of my doctoral thesis entitled “German Foreign and Security Policy in Transition: New Constraints of Demographic Change” successfully defended at the University of Potsdam in June 2010. It has been revised to incorporate the written and oral comments of my advisors. Since success is never an orphan, I would like to thank a number of people and organizations that were integral to the completion of my research. First and fore- most, I am sincerely grateful to my doctoral advisors, for their precious time, intel- lectual input, and moral support. I thank Erhard Stölting and Gerhard Kümmel for helping me to determine the shape, scope, and contribution of my research. I thank James W. Vaupel for his valuable assistance and guidance over many years, and his seemingly never-ending enthusiasm about opening new areas of research and teaching new ways of looking at things. I am indebted to Gabriele Doblhammer in many respects and, most notably, thank her for her assistance in fi nding solutions to empirical challenges throughout my doctoral research. In equal measure, I thank Andreas Edel for his advice and encouragement. I also recognize, and am grateful for, the fi nancial support of the Max Planck Society. I am much obliged to the German Federal Ministry of Defense, in particular Colonel Hans Hermann Paape and his colleagues at the Personnel, Social Services and Central Affairs Directorate. For their genial support, critical remarks, and technical assistance, I am grateful to Caroline Berghammer, Angelika Frederking, Katharina Frosch, Jutta Gampe, Esther Geisler, Rainer Heuer, Saskia Hin, Jörg Jacobs, Judith Kelley, Christian Leuprecht, Heiner Maier, Vegard Skirbekk, Matthias Teichner, Marlen Toch, Joris Van Bladel, Dirk Vieregg, Christian Wegner, Jana Wenzel, and Christina Westphal. I also thank Richard Jackson, who initiated my interest in the security implications of demographic change. This book is dedicated to my family: my brother, who I thank for his uncondi- tional care, and my parents, who always provided me with the confi ding guidance of a compass and the sense of security that one only fi nds in a safe harbor. vii Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Relevance