NIGER: Food Security Update January 2007

The food security situation, including grain availability and access, is good in most departments of . This is borne out by the decline in millet prices on major markets and the price stability on other markets. Right now, the main farming activities are the tending of vegetable crops and the start‐up of the second growing season for irrigated rice crops. Off‐ season crops are doing well, with lettuce, cabbage and onion crops already preset on local markets.

Even with the country’s major seasonal lakes and ponds starting to dry up, there is still enough water available for livestock and truck crops. There are no reports of any epizootic animal diseases. With the forage surplus, good pasture availability is providing livestock with a regular food supply and creating favorable terms of trade for animal vendors.

While conditions are good in most of the country, there are early warning signs of a deterioration in food security conditions, particularly in northern Doutchi and Keita, two crop and pasture‐deficit areas with no potential water resources.

Markets are still being regularly provisioned with grain crops, and low demand relative to supply is helping to keep prices affordable.

The preliminary findings from a joint survey conducted by the government and its food security partners in October and November of last year show a clear improvement in the nutritional status of children between 6 and 59 months of age. The acute malnutrition rate dropped five percentage points to 10.3 percent, compared with a figure of 15.3 percent from the previous nutritional survey conducted in September and October of 2005 by the government, UNICEF and the CDC‐Atlanta. However, despite this visible improvement, which was to be expected with the nutritional supplements provided by fruits and vegetables, the rate of global chronic malnutrition is still high, dictating the need for long‐term targeted interventions designed to change feeding practices.

Timeline of important events and warning signs

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NIGER: Monthly Food Security Update January 2007

Agropastoral situation

The main farming activities in January were rice farming activities in irrigated areas along the Niger River and the cowpea and vegetable growing. In January, most rice farmers are busy plowing and transplanting crops. The total area expected to be planted in rice is 8,500 hectares, with an anticipated average per hectare yield of 4.5 MT, for a harvest of approximately 38,250 MT.

Off‐season and truck crops are at an advanced stage of development, and all markets are reporting supplies of vegetables crops (such as lettuce, cabbage and onions). These off‐season crops help to ease both rural and urban household food insecurity and improve the nutritional situation by providing a more diversified diet. The expansion in truck farming activities in the last few years in pastoral areas of , for example, as the result of a concerted effort by farmer cooperatives, the government and its development partners has helped bolster the local food situation and household income.

Conditions in livestock‐raising areas Even with the steady drop in the levels of watering points, which is normal at this time of year, year‐round lakes and ponds (Maggia, Komadougou, Goulbi), the Niger River and certain wells are still providing water for animals and truck crop production in all parts of the country thanks to the good rainfall conditions marking the 2006/07 season.

There is enough pasture available to feed livestock in most parts of the country, and animal health conditions are calm, particularly with respect to contagious bovine pleuropneumonia.

Agropastoral markets and food outlook

Grain markets There is very little market demand for grain crops after a Figure 1. Trends in average millet prices surplus national harvest, in the face of the large food 2006 Ave 2002-06 2007 reserves of households and farmer cooperatives since 18,000 November of last year. Markets are still reporting a 16,000 regular supply of grain crops, as many households 14,000 continue to bring their millet and other crops to market. 12,000 Another factor contributing to this low market demand 10,000 is the absence of any large‐scale local grain 8,000

procurements by the government or traders from Kg CFAF/100 6,000 Nigeria, which also had a good grain harvest. 4,000 Procurements for rebuilding the national food security 2,000 reserve are scheduled to be made on markets in neighboring countries (Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali) 0 JAN JAN JAN JAN SEP SEP SEP so as not to destabilize domestic markets. SEP OCT OCT OCT OCT NOV DEC NOV DEC NOV DEC NOV DEC Agadez Maradi Tillaberi Market Information System (SIM) data for the month of Source: SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger January shows the upward movement in grain prices starting to slow. Thus, in general, market prices for January of this year are below figures for the same time last year by anywhere from 1 percent in Diffa to 5 percent in Maradi, 6 percent in Tillabery and 8 percent in Agadez (Figure 1).

However, prices are running anywhere from 2 percent to 7 percent above the 2002‐06 average for this time of year. This is due mainly to the generally low level of grain prices at this time of year in the three years prior to the 2005 crisis.

Livestock markets Livestock market data for January shows prices for cattle and small animals, including male sheep, beginning to fall, after shooting up in December in response to heavy demand in anticipation of preparations for the celebration of Tabaski (the

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NIGER: Monthly Food Security Update January 2007

Muslim Feast of the Sheep). On average, prices for male sheep came down by anywhere from 10 percent to 23 percent between December and January (Figure 2). However, prices are lower on export or consumer markets like Maradi, frequented more by speculative traders, than on markets in pastoral zones such as and N’Guel Kolo (Figure 2), frequented more by pastoralists. Moreover, January prices for male sheep on all markets are lower than at the same time last year.

While prices for small animals are falling, prices for large animals are improving. Thus, January prices for bulls on all domestic markets are higher than last month and at the same time last year (by 5 to 7 percent depending on the market). The sole exception is the Maradi market, which is reporting a drop in prices (Figure 3).

Figure 2. Trends in the price of male sheep Figure 3. Trends in the price of bulls

80,000 250,000 70,000 200,000 60,000 m 50,000 150,000 40,000 30,000 100,000 CFAF/bull CFAF/ra 20,000 50,000 10,000 0 0 Abalak Maradi N'Guel Kolo Abalak Maradi N'Guel Kolo

JAN 06 DEC 06 JAN 07 JAN 06 DEC 06 JAN 07

Source: SIMB and SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger Source: SIMB and SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

This decline in the prices of certain types of Figure 4. Trends in terms of trade animals has not affected the purchasing power of pastoralists. Grain prices are holding steady 2006 2007 Ave 2001-05 or declining, which is benefiting pastoralists 700 trading livestock, as illustrated in Figure 4. 600 January figures confirm reported price trends since the end of the harvest season, with ratios 500 of 347 kg of grain per sheep in Maradi and 266 400 kg in N’Guigmi, compared with 316 and 164 kg at the same time last year, an improvement of 300

62 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Kg millet/ram 200

100 Food, health and nutritional situation 0

JAN JAN SEP SEP OCT OCT NOV DEC After the exceptionally good 2006/07 harvest NOV DEC and two consecutive years of grain surpluses, a Maradi N'Guigmi look at conditions in January shows: Source: SIMB and SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

- a continuing availability of grain and cash crops on all local and national markets; - household grain reserves still at levels capable of meeting 2 to 4 more months of consumption needs, depending on the location; - livestock access to grass, forage and water still available in localized areas thanks to good new vegetative growth and favorable hydrologic conditions; and - supplementary foods from irrigated off‐season crops planted by rural households.

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NIGER: Monthly Food Security Update January 2007

These good conditions are helping to strengthen market inventories and are producing essential income and food supplements to strengthen the household diet. They are also helping to postpone the need to start buying grain on local markets, allowing households to use these monies to build up their assets in anticipation of potential problems during the lean period by engaging in goat fattening operations and small‐scale trade.

However, three months after the end of the growing season, not all households in Niger are in such a good position, with reports of localized seasonal problems, which are normal at this time of year. These problems include the steady depletion of family food reserves, the drying up of seasonal lakes and ponds and dwindling supplies of forage and pasture for the feeding of livestock. Thus, pastoralists and their families in the northern reaches of the , and Diffa regions are facing the food security ramifications of mediocre pasture production, causing their animals to head south earlier than usual and driving up the price of necessary forage for their livestock. This could trigger a deterioration in terms of trade for pastoralists in the next few months, undermining their food security.

Moreover, since November, mediocre millet, sorghum and/or cowpea harvests in the northern reaches of the farm belt have been foreshadowing an early depletion of family food reserves and the need for poor households to begin buying grain on local markets within three months. The limited availability or total absence of surface or readily accessible groundwater resources is yet another factor undermining the ability of area households to battle current food insecurity problems created by local production shortfalls. The meeting of the national early warning system (SAP) scheduled for the end of this month will assess the situation and ongoing relief efforts.

Data furnished by the Health Information System Figure 5. Trends in weekly admissions to nutrition programs (SNIS) administered by the Ministry of Public Health (December 2006-January 2007) (MSP) shows 2,373 new cases of malnutrition in the first two weeks of this month, including 303 cases of severe malnutrition (Figure 5).

Figure 5 shows a drop in admissions to treatment programs in January compared with figures for December, which later picked up slightly in the second week of the month.

Moreover, the findings by a joint country‐wide survey of the nutritional status and survival of children between the ages of 6 and 59 months by the government and its food security partners in October and November of last year shows that nutritional problems have eased.

However, the global acute malnutrition rate during the survey period (October 2006) was still high (11.9 Source: SNIS; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger percent), although it was lower than in October 2005 (15.3 percent).

The acute malnutrition rate ranges from 6.8 percent in the to 12.5 percent in the Agadez, Dosso and Tahoua regions. The prevalence of acute malnutrition exceeds the 10 percent threshold level in the Agadez, Diffa, Dosso, Tahoua and Tillabery regions of the country. The national severe acute malnutrition rate is 1.4 percent and local rates vary from 0.5 percent in to 2.4 percent in Dosso. The chronic acute malnutrition rate is 43.8 percent, nationally, ranging from 8.8 percent in Niamey to 56.1 percent in the Maradi region.

The same report puts the mortality rate for children under 5 years of age at 1.08/day/10,000 population, or below the warning threshold of 2/day/10,000 population.

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NIGER: Monthly Food Security Update January 2007

This improvement in the nutritional status of the country’s child population is in line with the government response, bolstered by its food security partners. It is also tied to this year’s good growing season and the availability of off‐season crops and animal products, providing a more diversified diet for children in many parts of the country.

Despite the sizeable drop in the number of admissions to treatment centers compared with previous months and the same period of 2005, the malnutrition rate is still high, and the admissions rate is expected to rise over the next few months.

Relief measures

With the visible improvement in the food and nutritional situation, no emergency operations have been mounted. However, the following preventive measures are being implemented: - Procurements of 17,500 MT of maize and white sorghum by the OPVN (the National Grain Marketing Board) with an IDB loan; - Rebuilding grain bank inventories in all parts of the country; and - Assistance in planting off‐season crops.

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