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COVID-19 Consumer Spend Impact

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COVID-19 Consumer Spend Impact COVID-19 Consumer spend impact Consumer panel transaction analysis THROUGH WEEK ENDING MAY 6, 2020 LEGAL DISCLAIMER The COVID-19 situation is rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Data included is based on consumer credit card / debit / checking account activity from Earnest research and excludes cash or other payments. This document represents one scenario based on discrete data from one point in time. It is not intended as a prediction or forecast about duration of lockdown; peak of viral infections; efficacy of government or health care responses to the virus; or other health or societal impacts, and does not represent an “official BCG view.” It is also not does not constitute medical, legal or safety advice, and is not an endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such, you are advised to use this document as general guidance only in making your own continued assessments as to the appropriate course of action, taking into account local laws, rules, regulations and orders. 1 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Summary of data available from credit/debit/checking transaction database • Weekly sales, transactions, unique customers, ATV, frequency – For US, UK, France, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue CBSA (US), NY-Newark-Jersey City CBSA (US) – From '16 to week ending 5/6/2020 – In the following sectors: Amazon (ex. Whole Foods), Apparel and Accessories, Department Stores, Electronics, Food Delivery, Grocers, Hobby, Home, Online Grocery, Payments & Other Finance, Pharmacy, Restaurants, Telecommunication, AFH Entertainment & Cinemas, Airlines, Auto Services, Beauty, Car Rentals, Club Chains, Convenience Stores, Cruise lines, DIY, Dollar & Discount Stores, Fitness, Health & Wellness, Hotels, Mass Retail, Media and Books, OTAs, Rideshare • Weekly %YoY change in sales, transactions, unique customers by company – For US only – From '19 to week ending 5/6/2020 – In the following sectors: Apparel and Accessories, Department Stores, Food Delivery, Grocers, Online Grocery, Pet Supplies, Restaurants • Note: Data based on consumer credit card / debit / checking account activity from Earnest Research (excludes cash/other). Data is updated weekly for the prior week; prior weeks may change slightly due to updates in methodology and continued data collection Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research 2 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Overall consumer spend impact across sectors Company-specific spend impact within sectors: • Restaurants • Food Delivery Table of • Grocers • Online Grocery contents • Department Stores • Apparel and Accessories • Pet Supplies Appendix: list of companies with data availability and index definitions 3 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Overall consumer spend impact across sectors 4 Through week ending May 6, 2020 Majority of industries in US continue to see declining sales and transactions with Rideshare, Travel, and AFH entertainment most severely impacted Week ending 5/6/2020 vs pre-crisis Dec – Jan (Delta in YoY % change) 88 99 52 72 $ Sales 5 5 5 6 11 14 18 20 -1 0 -26 -26 -16 -15 -53 -49 -45 -74 -68 -58 127 -102 -96 -91 -89 -85 -83 56 39 53 Transactions 2 11 2 2 -13 -18 -16 -3 -11 -31 -41 -41 -35 -26 -35 -23 -64 -55 -90 -92 -76 -84 -79 -88 -82 -90 97 46 66 29 34 26 27 36 31 28 22 ATV 2 22 16 15 15 2 18 17 18 -7 -11 -10 -11 -1 -10 -35 -16 -34 -18 DIY AFH OTAs Home Hobby Hotels Beauty Fitness Airlines Grocers Amazon Pharmacy Rideshare Cruiselines Electronics Mass Mass Retail Car Car Rentals Club Chains Club Restaurants Payments & Payments Auto Services Auto Food Delivery Food Other Finance Other Entertainment Online Grocery Online Media and Books and Media (ex Whole Foods) Whole (ex Dollar & Discount Dollar Health & Health Wellness Department Stores Department Convenience Stores Convenience Rideshare, Travel, AFH Telecommunication entertainment effectively halted / Accessories Apparel Note: All calculations vs. baseline; hence some anomalies like sales declining more than transactions but ATV relative growth vs. baseline 5 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis Through week ending May 6, 2020 For sales, some regional differences: NYC and Seattle saw a decline vs. baseline in Dollar & Discount, Seattle in Club Week ending 5/6/2020 vs pre-crisis Dec – Jan (Delta in YoY % change in $ Sales) US Seattle NYC Rideshare -102 -108 -101 AFH Entertainment & Cinemas -96 -100 -92 Cruiselines -91 Low N Low N Airlines -89 -96 -88 Car Rentals -85 -94 -66 Hotels -83 -76 -83 OTAs -74 -95 -84 Fitness -68 -112 -86 Convenience Stores -58 Low N Low N Department Stores -53 -39 -50 Apparel and Accessories -49 -42 -55 Beauty -45 -38 -46 Hobby -26 -58 -71 Restaurants -26 -26 -44 Pharmacy -16 -16 -17 Auto Services -15 -75 -60 Health & Wellness -1 -21 -16 Media and Books 0 6 1 Home 5 14 -1 Telecommunication 5 3 0 Dollar & Discount Stores 5 -16 -5 Grocers 6 2 6 Club Chains 11 -10 16 Mass Retail 14 9 30 Electronics 18 32 2 Payments & Other Finance 20 18 3 Amazon (ex Whole Foods) 52 50 48 DIY 72 44 46 Food Delivery 88 145 25 Online Grocery 99 219 145 Note: Sample size varies by category, ranging form 1,000-19,000 consumers for Seattle area, 1,000 – 9,000 for NYC area, and 15,000-750,000 for US; Excluding sectors with N<1000 Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 6 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Through week ending May 6, 2020 Transactions nationally and regionally also show some variance, with NYC Mass transactions rising but Electronics and Food Delivery declining vs. baseline Week ending 5/6/2020 vs pre-crisis Dec – Jan (Delta in YoY % change in Transactions) US Seattle NYC Rideshare -90 -92 -89 AFH Entertainment & Cinemas -92 -91 -88 Cruiselines -76 Low N Low N Airlines -84 -91 -87 Car Rentals -79 -77 -63 Hotels -88 -86 -89 OTAs -82 -89 -88 Fitness -90 -94 -94 Convenience Stores -31 Low N Low N Department Stores -64 -61 -55 Apparel and Accessories -41 -41 -48 Beauty -55 -51 -51 Hobby -41 -65 -73 Restaurants -35 -36 -56 Pharmacy -26 -24 -33 Auto Services 2 -10 -10 Health & Wellness -13 -22 -35 Media and Books 11 14 10 Home -35 -39 -44 Telecommunication 2 -1 -3 Dollar & Discount Stores -18 -20 -32 Grocers -23 -24 -33 Club Chains -16 -37 -10 Mass Retail -3 2 26 Electronics 2 2 -8 Payments & Other Finance -11 -22 -22 Amazon (ex Whole Foods) 56 54 61 DIY 39 9 17 Food Delivery 53 99 -2 Online Grocery 127 188 141 Note: Sample size varies by category, ranging form 1,000-19,000 consumers for Seattle area, 1,000 – 9,000 for NYC area, and 15,000-750,000 for US; Excluding sectors with N<1000 Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 7 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Through week ending May 6, 2020 Food/Drug/Mass: Growth in Amazon, Food delivery, with online grocery growth decelerating; other formats remained relatively stable vs. last week Weekly YoY % change in Sales vs. Dec-Jan avg. Weekly YoY % change in Transactions vs. Dec-Jan avg. 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 Online Grocery Amazon (ex Whole Foods) Club Chains Dollar & Discount Stores Restaurants Food Delivery Mass Retail Grocers Pharmacy Convenience Stores Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 8 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Through week ending May 6, 2020 Fashion/Specialty Retail: Saw a slight rebound in sales and transactions in the week ending 5/6 across categories, though most still down (DIY, electronics up) Weekly YoY % change in Sales vs. Dec-Jan avg. Weekly YoY % change in Transactions vs. Dec-Jan avg. 75 75 50 50 25 25 0 0 -25 -25 -50 -50 -75 -75 -100 -100 -125 -125 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 DIY Home Hobby Apparel and Accessories Fitness Electronics Health & Wellness Beauty Department Stores Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 9 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Through week ending May 6, 2020 Travel/Transportation: Sales and transactions may have bottomed out after sharp decline in March Weekly YoY % change in Sales vs. Dec-Jan avg. Weekly YoY % change in Transactions vs. Dec-Jan avg. 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 -100 -100 -120 -120 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 Auto Services Hotels Airlines AFH Entertainment & Cinemas OTAs Car Rentals Cruiselines Rideshare Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 10 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group.
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