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COVID-19 Consumer Spend Impact

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COVID-19 Consumer Spend Impact COVID-19 Consumer spend impact Consumer panel transaction analysis THROUGH WEEK ENDING MARCH 18, 2020 Summary of data available from credit/debit/checking transaction database • Weekly sales, transactions, unique customers, ATV, frequency – For US, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue CBSA, NY-Newark-Jersey City CBSA – From '16 to week ending 3/18/2020 (updated weekly for the prior week) – In the following sectors: Amazon (ex. Whole Foods), Apparel & Accessories, Department Stores, Electronics, Food Delivery, Grocers, Health/Fitness/Beauty, Hobby, Home, Mass Retail, Media & Entertainment, Online Grocery, Payment & Other Finance, Pharmacy, Restaurants, Telecommunication, Transportation, Travel • Weekly %YoY change in sales, transactions, unique customers by company – For US only – From '19 to week ending 3/18/2020 (updated weekly for the prior week) – In the following sectors: Apparel and Accessories, Department Stores, Food Delivery, Grocers, Online Grocery, Pet Supplies, Restaurants • Additional data may be available but would need to be purchased separately Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research 1 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Overall consumer spend impact across sectors Company-specific spend impact within sectors: • Restaurants • Food Delivery Table of • Grocers • Online Grocery contents • Department Stores • Apparel and Accessories • Pet Supplies Appendix: list of companies with data availability and index definitions 2 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Overall consumer spend impact across sectors 3 Top declining sectors largely driven by traffic slowdown, while growth in top growing sectors powered by both traffic and ATV increases Week ending 3/18/2020 vs pre-crisis Dec – Jan (Delta in YoY % change) 72.9 52.4 38.4 23.7 $ Sales 5.5 7.5 11.5 -9.1 -5.6 -21.6 -19.9 -13.6 -12.2 -37.7 -34.3 -31.6 -55.6 -45.7 22.4 19.3 Transactions 7.3 12.1 12.1 14.1 13.3 -7.4 -14.5 -19.5 -21.5 -11.3 -19.7 -32.2 -25.3 -44.5 -36.8 -37.4 44.8 24.7 13.2 22.1 ATV 1.9 4.4 5.4 7.1 9.6 2.0 8.0 -1.7 -1.0 -2.0 -3.2 -0.4 -19.1 -30.5 Home Travel Hobby Grocers & Other Amazon Apparel/ & Beauty Pharmacy Payments Payments Electronics Accessories Restaurants Mass Retail Retail Mass Food Delivery Transportation Health, Fitness Health, Grocery Online & Other Finance& Other (ex Whole Foods) Whole (ex Department Stores Department AFH Entertainment AFH Telecommunication Note: All calculations vs. baseline; hence some anomalies like sales declining more than transactions but ATV relative growth vs. baseline 4 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis Travel, Apparel, Transportation suffer sharpest sales decline in US, while Grocers, Pharmacy, Mass experience strong growth Week ending 3/18/2020 vs pre-crisis Dec – Jan (Delta in YoY % change in $ Sales) US Seattle NYC Travel -56 -70 -49 Apparel and Accessories -46 -45 -48 Transportation -38 -58 -43 Department Stores -34 -38 -29 AFH Entertainment -32 -38 -23 Restaurants -22 -28 -26 Payments & Other Finance -20 -30 -22 Food Delivery -14 4 -15 Health, Fitness, & Beauty -12 -36 -6 Hobby -9 -30 -3 Telecommunication -6 -5 -1 Home 5 -16 -1 Amazon (ex. Whole Foods) 8 10 Electronics and 19 Online Grocery 12 64 Online grocery 32 Electronics 24 39 growing faster 32 than overall US Mass Retail & Other 38 21 32 Pharmacy 52 30 57 Grocers 73 56 69 Note: Sample size varies by category, ranging form 1,200-37,000 consumers for Seattle area, 10,000 – 130,000 for NYC area, and 120,000-750,000 for US Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 5 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Apparel, Transportation, and Dept stores suffer sharpest transactions decline in US, while Grocers, Pharmacy, Mass experience strong growth Week ending 3/18/2020 vs pre-crisis Dec – Jan (Delta in YoY % change in Transactions) US Seattle NYC Travel -32 -62 -31 Apparel and Accessories -45 -51 -47 Transportation -37 -45 -38 Department Stores -37 -47 -32 AFH Entertainment -15 -16 -14 Restaurants -20 -26 -23 Payments & Other Finance -25 -37 -27 Gym closure Food Delivery -21 -6 announced on 3/15 -19 Health, Fitness, & Beauty -11 -50 -9 Hobby -20 -30 -18 Telecommunication -7 -7 -5 Home 7 -6 7 Amazon (ex. Whole Foods) 12 19 19 Online Grocery 12 48 25 Electronics 14 24 19 Mass Retail & Other 13 -1 13 Pharmacy 22 3 23 Grocers 19 4 22 Note: Sample size varies by category, ranging form 1,200-37,000 consumers for Seattle area, 10,000 – 130,000 for NYC area, and 120,000-750,000 for US Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 6 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Travel and AFH entertainment started downward trajectory in the week ending 2/26 while declines in other sectors accelerated in the week ending 3/18 Top 5 declining sectors AFH Entertainment Department Stores Transportation Apparel and Accessories Travel Weekly YoY % change in Sales vs. Dec-Jan avg. Weekly YoY % change in Transactions vs. Dec-Jan avg. 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 7 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Grocers and Pharmacy led the growth trajectory starting in the week ending 3/4 and accelerated in the week ending 3/18 Top 5 growing sectors Grocers Pharmacy Mass Retail & Other Electronics Online Grocery Weekly YoY % change in Sales vs. Dec-Jan avg. Weekly YoY % change in Transactions vs. Dec-Jan avg. 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 8 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Amazon and Home grew while declines in Payments, Health/ Fitness/ Beauty, Restaurants accelerated in the week ending 3/18 Other sectors Amazon (ex Whole Foods) Telecommunication Health, Fitness, & Beauty Payments & Other Finance Home Hobby Food Delivery Restaurants Weekly YoY % change in Sales vs. Dec-Jan avg. Weekly YoY % change in Transactions vs. Dec-Jan avg. 15 15 0 0 -15 -15 -30 -30 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 9 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Company-specific spend impact: Restaurants and Food Delivery 10 Restaurants: Traffic slowdown drove sales decline across formats with largest impact on CDR YoY % change for week ending 3/18 vs pre-crisis Dec – Jan avg. Transactions Sales -18 -17 -20 -22 -28 -27 -28 -32 Restaurants overall CDR index FC index QSR index Note: Indices are weighted average sales/transactions change of restaurants with available data in each category (weighted by 2018 systemwide sales); CDR N= 18, FC N=14, QSR N=25 Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis; 2019 BCG Restaurant Survey 11 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Restaurants: Sales and traffic decline accelerated across formats in the week ending 3/18 Weekly YoY % change in Sales vs. Dec-Jan avg. Weekly YoY % change in Transactions vs. Dec-Jan avg. 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 Restaurants overall CDR index FC index QSR index Note: Indices are weighted average sales change of restaurants with available data in each category (weighted by 2018 systemwide sales); CDR N= 21, FC N=14, QSR N=25 Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; BCG analysis 12 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Restaurants: Pizza experienced milder declines while Family Style and Varied Menu were the most impacted YoY % change for week ending 3/18 vs pre-crisis Dec – Jan avg. Transactions Sales -6 -9 -15 -17 -17 -18 -20 -20 -22 -22 -23 -23 -22 -25 -25 -27 -29 -31 -33 -35 Restaurants Pizza Chicken Burger Coffee Cafe Mexican Steak Sandwich Varied Family Style overall Menu Note: Cuisine type based on Technomic classification; Indices are weighted average sales/transactions change of restaurants with available data in each cuisine (weighted by unique customers); N= 3-8 per cuisine type, 50 total Source: BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; BCG GAMMA; Earnest Research; Technomic data; BCG analysis 13 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Restaurants: Sales and transactions decline accelerated across cuisine types in the week ending 3/18 Weekly YoY % change in Sales vs. Dec-Jan avg. Weekly YoY % change in Transactions vs. Dec-Jan avg. 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 Restaurants overall Chicken Coffee Cafe Steak Varied Menu Pizza Burger Mexican Sandwich Family Style Note: Indices are weighted average sales/transactions change of restaurants with available data in each cuisine (weighted by unique customers); N= 3-8 per cuisine type, 50 total 14 Copyright © by 2020 Boston Consulting Group.
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