REPORT SUMMARY 2012

Climate Change Sustainability Conservation Positive Energy: how renewable electricity can transform the island of Ireland by 2030~ About WWF-UK WWF was established in 1961 and is at the heart of global efforts Contents to address the world’s most important challenges. We work with communities, businesses and governments in over 100 countries to help people and nature thrive. Together, we’re safeguarding Background to this report 5 the natural world, tackling climate change and enabling people to use only their fair share of natural resources. Executive summary The way energy is produced and used has a massive impact on Key findings of GL Garrad Hassan report 6 the world. Energy for heating, electricity, transport and industry Summary of WWF policy recommendations accounts for around three quarters of global greenhouse gas and conclusions 8 emissions. As well as driving climate change, fossil fuels can damage ecosystems, cause air pollution and have serious Chapter one: health impacts. We’re working to change that by engaging with How the scenarios were developed 10 governments, businesses and consumers to create a sustainable, Scenarios examined by GL Garrad Hassan 12 efficient and renewable energy system. Other projections for generation capacity 12 Security of supply 14 The role of interconnection Scenarios A, B and C 16 CHAPTER two: The benefits of decarbonising electricity 18 Learning from others 20 The economic benefits of developing a low-carbon economy 20 Chapter three: Renewable resource size and generation capacity 26 Overview 27 Onshore wind 28 Offshore wind 29 Wave power 30 Tidal power – tidal range and tidal stream 31 Sustainable bioenergy 34 Geothermal 37 Hydropower 38 Landfill gas 39

key findings OF ROADMAP 2050 40

Glossary 41

REFERENCES 42 © D © credit here © credit

erek C erek This report follows on from others by WWF on the issue of renewable

ullen / Fáilte I ullen Background energy including one by WWF-UK, to this report Positive Energy: how renewable electricity can transform the UK reland by 20301, published in November 2011. Because of the existence of the Single Electricity Market (SEM), 2030 WWF decided to undertake a more thorough assessment of the potential circumstances relating to electricity generation and GL Garrad Hassan investigated the potential consumption in Ireland . WWF commissioned GL Garrad Hassan to decarbonise electricity to undertake additional modelling to investigate the potential to demand in Northern decarbonise the electricity demand in Northern Ireland and the Ireland and the Republic 2 of Ireland by 2030 Republic of Ireland by 2030 . The GL Garrad Hassan report is the first modelling undertaken that projects the electricity demand in both parts of Ireland as far as 2030.

The question that formed the basis of this is: How could the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland meet electricity demand in 2030 and achieve the maximum possible decarbonisation of the power sector by that same date, without endangering security of supply, or relying on new nuclear capacity or the use of unsustainable biomass?

WWF believes that we must decarbonise the power sector in an environmentally-sustainable way. Taking into consideration the unacceptable risk of a catastrophic accident and the legacy of dangerous radioactive waste, for which there is currently no effective long-term solution, we’re convinced that nuclear power is neither desirable nor necessary to meet our future energy needs. We regard nuclear power as an unsustainable and extremely expensive low-carbon option. WWF also wanted to assess the potential for decarbonising the electricity sector without excessive use of biomass, as there are concerns in some instances about the sustainability impacts of biomass production on water resources, biodiversity and food security, particularly in developing countries.

CaptionThere is tosubstantially go here more renewable capacity available to the island of Ireland than is needed to meet electricity demand but heating and transport fuels will also need to be decarbonised.

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Key findings of GL Garrad Hassan report

1. By 2030, more than 70% of the projected electricity demand in the 4. Additional demand for electricity is manageable SEM could be provided by renewable energy The additional demand for electricity arising from the electrification Renewable electricity could provide between 72% and 84% of of the heating and transport sectors is manageable, especially if part the projected electricity demand in the SEM by 2030 without of that demand is deferred to outside of peak hours. The additional compromising security of supply. Bold and stable policies by the demand arising from the electrification of transport, in line with administrations in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, Republic of Ireland targets as of January 2012, is less than 2% including a commitment to renewable energy, will be required to of predicted demand for 2020. The additional demand from the achieve this goal. electrification of heating would amount to roughly 8% of predicted electricity demand in 2020. 2. Potential supply can greatly exceed potential demand The island of Ireland has a significantly larger renewable energy 5. Decarbonising Ireland’s power sector could maintain security of resource available than would be needed to meet the projected supply and ensure electricity demands are met annual electricity demand in 2030. The GL Garrad Hassan report In a decarbonised power sector across the island of Ireland, a level reviews estimates of the renewable resource potential, which for both of gas-fired generation capacity similar to current levels would be Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland by 2030 is between sufficient to maintain security of supply and ensure that electricity 1,000 and 2,200 TWh/y (1,000,000 and 2,200,000 GWh/y)3. This demand is met at all times. This is based on a worst-case scenario represents a potential to generate between approximately 21 and 60 analysis where a prolonged cold and calm spell during winter, of times the projected demand for electricity by 2030 from renewables. several consecutive weeks, reduces the production from renewable energy sources over that period. There is the potential, with overall 3. Increased interconnection has significant benefits demand reduction, to reduce the gas generation capacity down to Increasing the levels of interconnection would provide additional 5,400 MW, which is below current levels (5,700 MW), if there is a access to export markets for renewable electricity generated in higher level of interconnection to mainland Europe. Northern Ireland and/or the Republic of Ireland which would enable a higher volume of renewable capacity in the SEM. If there were 1,000 MW of interconnection with mainland Europe, the level of gas-fired generation capacity needed on the island could be reduced by 1,000 MW from the anticipated levels in 2030. Interconnection, along with storage and demand side management, has an important role to play in balancing supply and demand with output from baseload and intermittent generation.

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recommendations and conclusions maximise e s / WWF- In order to maximise this potential, and ensure the shift away 1 from fossil fuels, clear, long-term energy plans and government potental UK commitments and polices are needed. The Northern Ireland and the DEVELOPMENT OF A Republic of Ireland governments should make the development of a low-carbon economy a political and economic priority. A fundamental LOW-CARBON ECONOMY means of achieving a low-carbon future must be reducing the demand SHOULD BE A POLITICAL for electricity, and other energy sources. AND ECONOMIC PRIORITY The two governments should set a target for renewables to provide 2 at least 70% of the electricity in Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland, and collectively across the SEM, by 2030. The research by GL Garrad Hassan has shown that meeting up to 84% of final electricity demand on the island of Ireland from renewable sources by 2030 is achievable. The system operators have confirmed that accommodating up to 75% renewable electricity is possible, though this would require addressing a number of technical challenges. The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland governments should set 3 firm targets for the reduction of energy demand in each jurisdiction to 2030 and beyond. These targets should be legally binding and set for every five-year period, along the lines of the approach used in the UK of five-year carbon budgets, up to 2050. These targets set targets must be backed up by ambitious policies to drive energy-efficiency FIRM ENERGY REDUCTION improvements across the energy sector in Northern Ireland and the TARGETS SHOULD BE SET Republic of Ireland. Increasing the levels of interconnection could facilitate higher levels 4 of renewable generation and potentially reduced gas generation capacity levels. WWF’s preference would be for renewable generation to replace fossil fuel generation. Considering the potential to reduce fossil fuel capacity and the (four) failures of the Moyle interconnector in the two years up to July 20124, WWF would recommend the expansion of interconnection routes should be a much higher priority for both administrations. renewable The Northern Ireland administration should match the target in the 5 Republic of Ireland to have at least 10% of all vehicles electrified by Caption to go here sources 2020. The GL Garrad Hassan report found that there may be a small but manageable increase of approximately 2% in projected demand 84% OF FINAL ELECTRICITY by 2020 for electricity in the Republic of Ireland, with the increased DEMAND FROM electrification of transport. RENEWABLE SOURCES IS ACHIEVABLE

WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 8 GL Garrad Hassan used many In this ambitious scenario, annual electricity demand is 80% Chapter one: of the existing studies and of that of the central scenario. The purpose of including this evaluations by government ambitious scenario is to show to what extent aggressive demand reduction actions will reduce the need for electricity generating How the scenarios agencies and departments capacity of all types. (primarily those from the According to the projections by GL Garrad Hassan, by 2030 in the Sustainable Energy Authority were developed central scenario the electricity demand will be 34,933 GW/y in the of Ireland (SEAI) and the Republic of Ireland and 11,147 GWh/y in Northern Ireland, giving a National Renewable Energy total demand across the SEM of 46,081 GWh/y. Action Plan (NREAP) Ireland and NREAP UK as In the ambitious demand scenario, the electricity demand is well as Transmissions System Operators (TSO) forecast to be 28,000 GWh/y in the Republic of Ireland and 8,900 and other bodies) in order to derive estimates of GWh/y in Northern Ireland, giving a total demand across the SEM electricity demandi for the SEM on the island of of 36,900 GWh/y. Ireland for 2030. Table 1. However, these existing studies only looked as far as 2020. The PROJECTED ELECTRICITY DEMAND SCENARIOS BY GARRAD HASSAN 2030 2030 scenarios produced by GL Garrad Hassan in its report are policies to achieve extrapolations of other 2020 scenarios, based on the assumptions Electricity demand 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2030 made by GL Garrad Hassan, as outlined in Table 1. As WWF (GWh/y) central ambitious greater demand Northern Ireland understands it, at the time of writing, this is the scenario scenario reduction should first time that projections for electricity demand in 2030 have been play a central role made in the context of the SEM. It is noticeable that within the GL republic of Ireland 29,511 32,227 33,105 34,007 34,933 28,000 in energy policy Garrad Hassan scenarios, electricity demand increases to at least 2025 and only reduces after this year in the ambitious scenario. Northern Ireland 9,820 10,826 10,928 11,037 11,147 8,900 Given the cost effectiveness of improving energy efficiency over All-island 39,331 43,053 44,033 45,044 46,081 36,900 building additional generation and transmission infrastructure, policies to achieve greater demand reduction should play a central role in energy policy. While a growth in the electrification of parts of the transport and heating sectors will lead to additional electricity demand coming from those sectors, WWF Northern Ireland believes that overall demand should start to fall sooner than 2025, as the sooner demand reduces, the easier the transition to a low- carbon economy will be. GL Garrad Hassan modelled two electricity demand scenarios for the years to 2030. One, the ‘central’ scenario, was based on scenarios produced by official bodies to 2020/2025 and extrapolated to 2030. This scenario assumes an increase in electricity consumption of approximately 15% between 2010 i Electricity demand is defined in the GH report as “gross final electricity consumption”, based on the methodology outlined in the EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC), which includes and 2030. The other, the ‘ambitious’ scenario, is based on work the losses of approximately 8.3% involved in transporting energy from the point of production to previously done by GL Garrad Hassan in the UK, in turn based on the final consumer, referred to as transmission losses, as defined in the SONI 2012-22 All Island Generation Capacity Statement. scenarios published by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC).

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Scenarios examined by GL Garrad Hassan the GL Garrad The decommissioned capacity will need to be replaced and the Current interconnector capacity (as of July 2012) to the Great Britain Hassan modelling GL Garrad Hassan modelling demonstrates that it is possible to electricity system is around 500 MW, and the proposed East-West demonstrates that significantly reduce the carbon intensity of power generation across interconnector is also 500 MW in capacity. However, this limit the island of Ireland through investment in renewable energy. it is possible to of 1,000 MW of interconnection will limit the potential to export 9 significantly reduce According to the two system operators SONI/Eirgrid overall renewable electricity at times when more electricity is produced from electricity demand for the island of Ireland in 2010 was 36,316 renewables than is consumed on the island. The GL Garrad Hassan the carbon intensity GWh/y. While there are uncertainties associated with any prediction report assessed other scenarios with higher levels of interconnection of power generation of demand for any commodity, electricity demand in Northern and found that greater interconnection capacity would be beneficial across the island Ireland and the Republic of Ireland has been rising for many years. in terms of grid balancing and would allow higher total capacities of Ireland through The two to three years following the economic downturn in 2008 for renewables by providing access to a market to sell excess when the effects of the economic recession and rising energy prices electricity, and potentially a reduction (of 1,000 MW, to 5,400 MW) investment in renewable energy contributed to a temporary drop in demand were an exception to in the anticipated level of gas generation capacity, which is below this trend of rising demand. Without policy and/or legislative and/ current levels (5,700 MW), if interconnection to mainland Europe is or regulatory intervention from governments and a change in the expanded. It should be noted that there is no commitment, at the time behaviour of consumers, this trend of rising demand is likely to of writing, to any investment in the expansion of the interconnection continue – until problems with supply become more severe and capacity in the short to medium term. change the dynamics of supply and demand.

Other projections for generation capacity The backdrop of rising energy demand contrasts with the EU targets Over the course of the next 10 years, some existing fossil fuel- in the Renewable Energy Directive of 2009 (2009/28/EC) of having based plant capacity will be shut down. For example, 510 MW of 20% energy from renewable energy sources, a 20% reduction of conventional plant will be decommissioned from Ballylumford by primary energy use and a 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions 2016, though there is no new conventional (fossil-based) generation by 2020. The UK and Republic of Ireland have signed up to this 5 directive. Over the course of the currently planned for Northern Ireland up to 2021 . The System next 10 years, some Operator for Northern Ireland (SONI) is assuming that an additional The Scottish government has set a target to reduce energy existing fossil fuel-based 1,482 MW of renewable capacity will come online in Northern Ireland plant capacity will be consumption by 12% by 2020 against a baseline averaged over 2005- shut down by 2021, consisting of 1,042 MW onshore wind, 300 MW offshore 07, which should result in annual fuel savings worth £325 million10 6 wind, 50 MW tidal and 90MW of large scale biomass . However, and the Danish government11 has set a target to reduce gross energy Belfast West has been identified by the Northern Ireland Department consumption by 12% by 2020 compared to 2006. In addition the of Enterprise Trade and Investment (DETI) as a potential site for Republic of Ireland’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2009- 7 a biomass-fuelled power station up to 300 MW capacity , so the 202012 has an energy savings target of 20% by 2020 for the whole renewable capacity may well exceed these predictions. economy; and recognising that government must take the lead, a In the Republic of Ireland, a total of 802 MW of conventional capacity higher target of 33% for the public sector. Accounting for these targets at Great Island and Tarbert, which burn heavy fuel oil, is due to be and for the continuing high or rising costs of energy, one could expect decommissioned by the end of 2020, but there are four open cycle a reduction in energy demand to be actively pursued by governments, gas turbine plants and one combined cycle gas turbine plant, with north and south of the border and beyond. This is why, in addition a combined generation capacity of 808MW due to come online. In to the central scenario in the GL Garrad Hassan report, there is an addition, two waste-to energy plants which will provide an additional ambitious scenario which involved using only 80% of the electricity in 77MW of capacity are due to come online in the next few years8. the central scenario.

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Security of supply among the less developed renewable energy sources on the island The issues relating to security of supply operate at a number of levels of Ireland, and so these same sources are likely to have the greatest – from the strategic level of having more than adequate supplies of potential to expand in the coming years. In addition, it is likely that energy so that demand at a particular point in time or over a period gas will continue to have a role in energy generation for some years to of time, e.g. a year, is always met, to the more specific, often technical come and if and when the proposed gas storage facilities near Larne issues such as the need to maintain the frequency of the alternating are up and running, this should offer another means of dealing with current in the system at 50 hertz to prevent the risk of a sudden loss any prolonged cold spell in winter. of power. In its report, GL Garrad Hassan discusses security of supply The stress test used in this report is far more strenuous than the one in terms of the more specific, technical issues rather than the more used by DECC in its 2050 Pathway analysis, which is based on five strategic energy supply questions. consecutive days with very limited output from wind power. Interestingly, despite the many claims that have often been made However, in those critical circumstances, GL Garrad Hassan argued about the difficulty accommodating wind power on the grid, that there are currently three realistic means to provide a secure according to the two system operators, SONI/EirGrid13, studies have electricity supply, namely (i) large energy storage capacity, able to shown that it is possible today to securely operate the power system meet a large part of electricity demand for periods of weeks, (ii) with up to 50% of generation coming from what is described as non- interconnection to other electricity systems, and (iii) conventional synchronous sources, essentially high voltage direct current (HVDC) generating capacity. GL Garrad Hassan’s projections are based on imports, such as those from interconnectors, and wind powerii. In fact a total level of thermal capacity similar to today’s level. However, these studies show that the power system could be kept secured with with the possibility of some capacity in the older, less efficient power up to 75% of non-synchronous generation, though levels above 75% stations closing down, in Northern Ireland and the Republic of present technical difficulties. Ireland, it seems this may be an issue that requires attention. It may The intermittency of renewable sources, in particular wind power, be that the expansion of renewable energy, in particular, wind power, is another issue that needs to be addressed as the contribution will be able to meet the projected demand, given that the potential from these sources increases but GL Garrad Hassan found that this for wind far exceeds the projected levels of demand, and even replace intermittency is not a risk to security of supply. some gas generation capacity. It may also be that a greater level of decentralised, off-grid electricity, and potentially heat generation In the context of the GL Garrad Hassan study, it is concluded that from small-scale anaerobic digestion combined heat and power the most significant risk to security of supply for northern European plants for example will help reduce the demands placed on the grid. countries with high penetration of renewables is an extended period Similarly, the more efficient use of energy including, for example, of anticyclonic weather in winter, with low temperatures and little having more efficient buildings and using what is currently waste heat output from wind, wave and hydro generation, lasting for several through district heating systems and the expansion of the provision consecutive weeks. Conditions such as these were prevalent during of renewable heat could also ameliorate this potential problem. In all the scenarios in the the winters of 2010 and 2011, though these winters were exceptional. Garrad Hassan analysis, supply meets demand In all the scenarios of our report, supply meets demand at all times, at all times, even in a worst case scenario, even in a worst case scenario, whereby difficult weather conditions whereby difficult weather affecting the whole of the British Isles would result in very limited conditions would result in output from wind, solar, wave and run of river hydropower over very limited output from wind, solar, wave and several consecutive weeks. However, other renewable energy sources, river hydropower principally marine currents, tidal and bioenergy, and possibly hydropower sources would not be affected by anticyclonic conditions and could be relied upon to continue to provide renewable energy. ii The issue of synchronous and non-synchronous electricity generation relates to the frequency of the electricity produced by a particular source and whether or not it matches, or is synchronous with, Coincidentally, it is the marine and bioenergy based sources that are the electricity in the grid.

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The role of interconnection In scenario B, the percentage of renewables as a fraction There is substantially more renewable capacity available to the of demand is higher – 78% in the central demand scenario island of Ireland than is needed to meet electricity demand. GL and 84% in the ambitious demand scenario. The report does Garrad Hassan’s analysis examined the likely impact of a range of describe much higher levels of interconnection – of up to 8,000 levels of interconnection capacity. Scenario A was based on having or 9,000 MW – as feasible, though one of the main influences approximately 1,000 MW of interconnection capacity. This total in deciding the likely level of interconnection is the price of the of 1,000 MW is the expected interconnection capacity that will be electricity produced on the island of Ireland as compared to available when the Republic of Ireland–Wales interconnector is that produced in Great Britain. finished. Scenario B was based on having an additional 1,000 MW of interconnection capacity with Great Britain, above and beyond the Scenario C first scenario, a total of 2,000 MW capacity. Scenario C was based on Scenario C deals with an additional 1,000 MW of having an additional 1,000 MW of interconnection capacity, but with interconnection from the island of Ireland to continental continental Europe, most likely France and Spain, above and beyond Europe, which would be substantially longer and therefore the first scenario, a total of 2,000 MW capacity. substantially more expensive than a direct connection to Great Britain. The report found that the renewable generation Scenario A capacity would be likely to increase by an amount equal to the In scenario A, the level of interconnection was regarded as, increase in interconnection capacity, with onshore wind the in effect, likely to limit the potential growth of renewable most likely source of this expanded capacity. However, this energy sources because in cases where the levels of renewable level of interconnection to continental Europe should have electricity produced exceed the demand, interconnection will greater benefits in terms of security of supply during critical be required in order to facilitate the export of the available periods because it is unlikely that the anticyclonic conditions excess. If the level of interconnection is not available to facilitate during winter, which would create the worst case scenario of such export then any excess production from renewable energy critical supply periods, would cover all of Europe, and because sources will have to be curtailed – i.e. stopped or shut down – the generation mix in continental Europe is not so dominated because of the technical requirements of the grid. In scenario by wind as it is assumed to be for Great Britain. In scenario C, A, the percentage of renewables as a fraction of demand the percentage of renewables as a fraction of demand is similar ranges from 72% in the central demand scenario to 77% in the to that in scenario B – 78% in the central demand scenario ambitious demand scenario. and 84% in the ambitious demand scenario. According to GL Garrad Hassan, the conditions in scenario C also mean that the Scenario B gas generation capacity could be reduced by 1,000 MW. In scenario B, an additional 1,000 MW of interconnection from Ireland to Great Britain is assumed to enable the renewable There is a strong It seems clear therefore that a greater level of interconnection, generation capacity on the island of Ireland to increase by 1,000 case to develop a beyond the 1,000 MW that is currently planned, will facilitate MW on the basis that this additional level of interconnection the potential export of electricity, especially that generated from will allow purchasers to be found for additional production. strategy to plan renewable sources, from the single market and could make a However, this is subject to weather conditions and economic how our energy contribution to increased security of supply, including during conditions across the island being similar to those in Great needs will be met times of critical supply. While the winters of 2010 and 2011 were Britain. The report assumes that, if the renewable generation in the long term exceptional, WWF believes that the potential recurrence of such capacity does increase by an amount equal to the increase in circumstances makes a strong case for both administrations to interconnection capacity, it will be onshore wind that provides develop a long-term energy strategy to plan how our energy needs the increased capacity, as that is the greatest available resource. will be met in the longer term.

WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 16 WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 17 WWF believes that energy has the Comprehensive analyses by PricewaterhouseCoopers19, the European chapter two: potential to be the single most important Climate Foundation (ECF)20 and WWF International21 have shown influence on economic development in that a 100% renewable energy future is achievable. The ECF report found that the costs of doing so are comparable to business as usual The benefits of Northern Ireland and the Republic of and that: “Nuclear and/or coal-with-CCS plants are not essential to Ireland, in the medium to long term. decarbonise power while safeguarding system reliability.” decarbonising There are compelling reasons why Northern The Energy Report, WWF’s research into a 100% renewable Ireland and the Republic of Ireland need to move future, found that not only could the world be supplied by to a low-carbon economy, in addition to the renewable energy, including those who currently do not have electricity environmental, social and moral reasons for making reliable access to primary energy, but also: “By 2050, we save such a transition. nearly €4 trillion per year through energy efficiency and Tackling climate change must be one of the primary drivers for reducing costs.” decarbonisation, and energy policy is also key to tackling climate There are many There are many arguments for decarbonising our energy supply, at a change as more than 75% of all man-made emissions of carbon range of levels and across a range of sectors. dioxide (CO2) come from burning fossil fuels14 – the remainder come arguments for Lord Whitty’s 2012 independent review of energy policy in from deforestation and cement manufacture. decarbonising our energy supply, at Northern Ireland22 recommended among other things, that: “The The Republic of Ireland is heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels, a range of levels electricity network should be modernised and decarbonised as far with approximately 96% of its energy needs met from imported fossil as practicable using renewable sources in Ireland, supplemented fuels, at a cost of €6 billion a year and less than 3% of its energy and across a range by increasingly low carbon energy imported from GB and ROI via 99% 15 generated from renewables . Northern Ireland is even more reliant of sectors the interconnectors,” and: “Substantial decarbonisation by 2030 Northern Ireland on imported fossil fuels, which provide approximately 99% of its of the energy system in NI in both supply and use on track for near relies on imported primary energy needs16, and which cost approximately £2.3 billion complete decarbonisation by 2050.” fossil fuels to a year. A key facet of decarbonisation is setting the right policy. A 2011 provide 99% of The International Energy Agency has made it clear that current report by the London School of Economics23 concluded that: its primary energy consumption trends are unsustainable, and in the 2008 “credible long-term policy signals could leverage finance and unlock energy needs World Energy Outlook17 argued: “The world’s energy system is at a private investment in renewable energy, smart networks crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption and communities, energy efficiency and low carbon vehicles on a are patently unsustainable – environmentally, economically and great scale”. socially. But that can – and must – be altered; there’s still time to The report went on to argue that as regards investment in low- change the road we’re on.” carbon technologies: “The issue is a lack of confidence to invest According to the UNEP Green Economy Report (GER)18, investing rather than a lack of liquidity.” just 2% of GDP in a green transformation of (10) key sectors can A clear, integrated policy on, and commitment to expanding, the kick start a transition towards a low-carbon, resource-efficient provision of energy from renewable sources across the SEM would economy, and: “Greening the economy not only generates growth provide the sort of long-term certainty that investors seek. Equally, and in particular gains in natural capital, but it also produces a the lack of such polices is likely to mean low-carbon investment ends higher growth in GDP and GDP per capita. Under the GER modelling up in an administration more favourably disposed to developing a exercise, a green investment scenario achieves higher economic low-carbon economy. growth rates than a business as usual scenario within 5-10 years.”

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Learning from others Though wind power will most likely continue to be the dominant Other countries have realised the benefits of following a low-carbon 250,000 renewable energy source in Northern Ireland and the Republic path. In Germany, for example, in 2009 more than 10% of all energy According to the Carbon of Ireland, in the short to medium term at least, tackling climate and more than 16% of electricity was generated from renewables24. Trust, the UK’s offshore change needs a multi-faceted approach and other options such as Germany now obtains more energy from renewable sources than it wind and wave power bioenergy and marine renewables should have a role to play. A 2009 industry could generate does from nuclear power, hard coal or natural gas25. In March 2012, report by IWEA and Deloitte30 found that, in order to provide the Germany now up to £70 billion for chancellor Angela Merkel announced plans for Germany to replace 17 the economy and create 7,800 MW of wind power needed on the island of Ireland to meet the obtains more nuclear reactors that supplied about a fifth of Germany’s electricity almost 250,000 jobs . current renewable energy targets, the Irish wind energy sector will energy from with renewables such as solar and wind. The German authorities involve approximately €14.75 billion of investment, of which €5.1 renewable anticipate this programme will cost €200 billion and require the billion will be retained in both economies, by 2020 (€4.3 billion in sources than it production of 25,000 MW of wind power, which will in turn require ROI and €786 million in NI). the installation of 5,000 wind turbines26 . does from nuclear Many countries are forging ahead and leading the creation of low- power, coal or The economic benefits of developing a low-carbon economy carbon jobs. For example, despite the recent economic crisis, the natural gas The importance of establishing appropriate (supportive) policy in contribution from renewables in Germany has increased, and as a developing a low-carbon economy has been previously referred to. result of rising investment, which reached a total of €17.7 billion, For example, according to Pew27, in 2011, the United States attracted employment in the sector grew. As of 2009, more than 300,000 $48.1 billion of investment in clean energy, the highest level within people were employed in the renewable energy sector in Germany the G20. However, the Pew analysis says that, in relation to the (compared to 12,000 in the UK in 2008)31. The German government United States: “Significant policy uncertainty also undermines already has a target to cut CO2 emissions by 40% against 1990 levels investor confidence in 2012.” by 2020, which it estimates will generate savings of €5bn in private households and industry by 2020, and that on average, every tonne The influence of policy is also likely to be a factor in the difference of CO2 saved has a saving effect of €2632. When Germany adopted between the investment rates reported by Pew in Germany, which the second package implementing the integrated energy and climate attracted $30.6 billion of investment in clean energy in 2011, and the programme, federal environment minister Sigmar Gabriel33 said it UK which attracted $9.4 billion in the same year. “protects the climate, lowers energy costs for our citizens and will A 2009 report into the low-carbon economy by the UK Department create more than 500,000 additional jobs by 2020”. for Business Innovation and Skills28, which merged with Defra It seems unlikely that Germany would pursue a strong renewables in 2008 to form the Department of Energy and Climate Change policy if it was not going to generate a long-term competitive (DECC), characterised the whole Northern Ireland low-carbon advantage. and environmental goods and services sector as being worth approximately £3.3 billion, across 1,600 companies and employing The need to decouple economic growth from energy demand has 31,000 people, in 2007. According to DECC, in Northern Ireland often been stated, and it can be done. As outlined in the Danish there was £180m invested and 767 jobs created in renewables in the government’s Energy Strategy 205034, the Danish economy has 2011-12 financial year.29 grown by 78% since 1980 while energy consumption has remained more or less constant, and greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced. The Danish Energy Strategy 2050 is fully costed and: “The Danish government’s goal of making Denmark independent of fossil fuels by 2050 is based on the realisation that the world is facing a new era for energy policy.”

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Costs were not explored in the GL Garrad Hassan report in any WWF Northern It seems clear that in the medium to long term, the energy future great detail, not least because the economic viability of a particular Ireland believes will be radically different, on a local and global scale. Exactly when energy source can change very rapidly as the price of oil and gas, in that Northern that transformation will start and how quickly it will happen is not particular, fluctuates and for the most part rises. But also because clear, but a major issue for WWF is that both parts of Ireland, need to While there has been Ireland and the a substantial increase there is a lot of information already available on the relative costs of develop a long-term energy strategy to manage that transition rapidly in fossil fuel prices, various renewable energy sources. While there has been a substantial Republic of Ireland and smoothly. especially gas, in recent increase in fossil fuel prices, especially gas, in recent years, the need to make years, the cost of the Accounting for the many significant economic benefits from cost of the more mature forms of renewable energy technologies is more mature forms the transition developing a more sustainable energy system, of which decarbonising of renewable energy falling. For example, the price of solar modules fell by 50% in 2011 to a low-carbon the electricity supply across the energy sector is just one aspect, technologies is falling. alone, with McKenzie predicting that solar PV will be at grid parity economy a WWF believes that Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland with other technologies globally before 2020. The cost of onshore need to make the transition to a low-carbon economy a political wind has also fallen dramatically, with Bloomberg New Energy political and and economic priority. WWF hopes this report will provide a useful Finance predicting that onshore wind will very shortly be fully cost economic priority contribution to the debate about how such decarbonisation can and competitive with gas power generation and is in fact already cost will be achieved. competitive with gas if one takes into account the price of carbon. The outlook of future cost trends is also positive for less mature forms of renewable energy technologies such as offshore wind. The Crown Estate Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Pathways Studyiii shows that there are several pathways that could result in the costs of offshore wind going down to £100/MWh or less by 2020, with further substantial cost reductions possible in the 2020s. The report makes clear that long-term term predictability in terms of minimum volumes of deployment and financial support hold the key to delivering these costs reductions. In addition, the cost of most renewable technologies is falling, particularly the currently less mature technologies such as offshore wind. Meanwhile, there has been a clear, steadily upward trend in recent years in the demand for, and the price of, oil and gas – and this trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. WWF believes that with the continued influence of these longer term trends and a growing understanding of the need for, and value of, a shift in policy towards the development of a low-carbon economy, there is the possibility that even a relatively small shortfall in the supply of oil and/or gas could tip the balance towards more decarbonisation, most likely prompted by the negative economic consequences of such a shortfall.

iii The Crown Estate, Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Pathways Study, May 2012: http://www. thecrownestate.co.uk/media/305094/Offshore%20wind%20cost%20reduction%20pathways%20 study.pdf

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Northern Ireland is playing a very prominent, if not a leading, role in the sphere of tidal stream This power. is primarily to thedue installation of the SeaGen turbine in Strangford Lough, which was the first full-scale tidal steam turbine to be connected to the grid to produce electricity for consumption. SeaGen delivered its full rated power of 1.2 MW for the first time December 18 on 2008 – believed to be the first timea ‘wet renewable energy system’ has delivered in excess of 1MW: enough to supply approximately 1,000 homes.

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GL Garrad Hassan attempted to quantify Overview Chapter three: the potential of some renewable energy 2030 There are many factors that will influence the development of sources in Northern Ireland and the the potential renewable energy sources in Northern Ireland and the Republic for renewable of Ireland, including national and European policies, politics Renewable Republic of Ireland and the surrounding and economics, fossil fuel price and availability, the size and waters. This evaluation included onshore energy in Northern rate of investment from public and private sectors in low-carbon resource size and offshore wind, wave, tidal power, Ireland and the technologies, weather patterns and climate change, and energy sustainable biomass, geothermal, Republic of Ireland consumption patterns. As made clear in the report by GL Garrad hydropower sources, and landfill gas – is enormous and Hassan, the potential for renewable energy in Northern Ireland and and generation though landfill gas is a by-product rather is significantly the Republic of Ireland is enormous and is significantly greater than the likely levels of electricity demand by 2030. The Garrad Hassan than a truly renewable energy source. greater than report uses a figure of 116,000 GWh/y and capacity of 36GW as the capacity the likely levels assumed level of renewable energy production in 2030. The potential for photovoltaic (PV) or solar cells of electricity was not included as it is anticipated that PV is unlikely to be a major demand by 2030 However, this is not the upper limit of the potential energy energy source between now and 2030. Given the rapidly falling cost production from renewables. The maximum cumulative practical of PV, this technology may prove to have a significant role in the potential for each resource is approximately 2,200 TWh/y, almost energy mix in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. However, 60 times the estimated demand in the ambitious scenario (of 36,900 PV output is at its lowest in winter, when the demand is at its highest, GWh/y) for 2030, with an installed capacity of approximately and consequently GL Garrad Hassan’s evaluation is based on PV not 801 GW. While some of the renewable energy resource might be playing a significant role. challenging to exploit, it is clear that the resource is considerably greater than the projected electricity demand in Northern Ireland The potential for each deployment of each generation source and the Republic of Ireland. depends on many variables. For example, for onshore wind, planning considerations can be a major influence on deployment rates. For Figure 1. offshore wind the cost reduction trajectory is dependent on variables Sum of GWh/y Estimated capacity such as technology maturity, infrastructure, risk and policy certainty. 2,500,000 of renewable 2,000,000 Variables such as size (capacity) of turbine, the depth of water in energy sources 1,500,000 which the turbines are sited, distance from the shore, the spacing compared to 1,000,000 required between turbines, and other complimentary or potentially 500,000 projected demand competing demands on the marine environment, including 0 in 2030 Ambitious Central Type of Type of conservation, fishing, shipping and communications and government demand demand electricity electricity policy can all influence the total cost of the development of an Type of scenario scenario production production electricity 2030 2030 (High) (Low) offshore wind farm. Perceived reluctance to expand onshore wind is a key factor driving the growth in offshore wind farms. Hydro Tidal Wave O shore wind Onshore wind

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Figure 2.35 scenario and more than 50 times the demand in the ambitious Wind resources at scenario. There will be certain constraints, including physical and 50 metres above economic constraints, that are likely to prevent the full exploitation ground level for of the practical resource, but the main point is that the wind five different resource available is many times the size of the projected demand. topographic Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland currently have a conditions combined capacity of 1.7 GW37. Offshore wind There are a range of factors that influence the development of offshore wind, not least the balance between the development of 500 km wind power on land or at sea, which include water depth, turbine Sheltered terrain open plain at sea coast open sea hills and ridges size and spacing, and minimum distance from the shore. The SEAI/ ms -1 Wm -2 ms -1 Wm -2 ms -1 Wm -2 ms -1 Wm -2 ms -1 Wm -2 38 > 60 > 250 > 7.5 > 500 > 8.5 > 700 > 9.0 > 800 > 11.5 > 1.800 IMDO projections of an installed capacity of between 13 and 16.5 5.0-6.0 150-250 6.5-7.5 300-500 7.0-8.5 400-700 8.0-9.0 600-800 10.0-11.5 1200-1800 GW are based on the assumption that 3MW turbines will be used 4.5-5.5 100-150 5.5-6.5 200-300 6.0-7.0 250-400 7.0-8.0 400-600 8.5-10.0 700-1200 with a 500m spacing throughout the resource area that the turbines 3.5-4.5 50-100 4.5-5.5 100-200 5.0-6.0 150-250 5.5-7.0 200-400 7.0-8.5 400-700 will be located in water depths of less than 20m, situated between < 3.5 < 50 < 4.5 < 100 < 5.0 < 150 < 5.5 < 200 < 7.0 < 400 2km and 10km offshore from the coast, producing between 48.7 Onshore wind and 55.55 TWh/year. Under equivalent assumptions, the resource According to SEAI36, the onshore wind practical resource (the for Northern Ireland ranges from 0.10 TWh/y to 6.53 TWh/y, resource limited by physical or other incompatibilities) based on which will require an installed capacity ranging from 26.5 MW to 3MW turbines is 360 GW capacity, which should produce 947,969 1,725 MW. However, GL Garrad Hassan expanded its assessment GWh/y – more than 20 times the estimated central demand of of the potential of offshore wind power across the entire exclusive 46,000 GWh/y for the whole of the island. If the capacity of the economic zone (up to 200 nautical miles from the coast) allowing wind turbines was 7 MW, the practical resource would be around for development in water depths of up to 50m (as compared to the double that for 3MW turbines, at 724 MW producing 1,902,023 20m depth the SEAI used) and found the practical resource to be 75 GWh/y, more than 40 times the estimated demand in the central GW of capacity producing 283,000 GWh/y, which is over six times the estimated demand in the central demand scenario, and over Figure 3. Sum of GWh/y seven times the demand in the ambitious scenario, with the major Onshore wind 2,000,000 resource off the west coast of Ireland. electricity 1,800,000 generation 1,600,000 Figure 4. 1,400,000 Sum of GWh/y potential compared Offshore wind 1,200,000 300,000 to projected 1,000,000 electricity 250,000 demand 2030 800,000 generation 200,000 600,000 potential compared 150,000 400,000 to projected 100,000 200,000 50,000 0 demand 2030 0 Ambitious Central Onshore Onshore Ambitious Central O shore O shore O shore wind demand demand wind wind demand demand wind wind generation scenario scenario generation generation scenario scenario generation generation across EEZ 2030 2030 3MW Turbines 7MW Turbines 2030 2030 (high) (low) (GHassessment)

Electricity demand Electricity production Electricity demand Electricity production

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Wave power Tidal power – tidal range and tidal stream Wave power refers to the energy generated by the motions of 240 MW Tidal range power refers to the energy generated when normal tidal the waves. There are a number of different options, including: The world’s first tidal flow is impeded (for example, by the construction of a barrage) the Pelamis system, based in Scotland; Wave Bob, which has its range power station was until there is a difference in the height of the water on the two sides headquarters in Ireland; Wavegen, which uses the Limpet system built in 1966 at La Rance of the barrier, at which time the water is allowed to flow through in Brittany, France and designed by researchers at Queens University Belfast (QUB) to has a capacity of 240 MW turbines. The world’s first tidal range power station was built in generate power off the coast of the Isle of Islay; and Aquamarine 1966 at La Rance in Brittany, France and has a capacity of 240 Power, which uses the Oyster system also designed by QUB to MW40. Other sites have been developed in locations including South generate power off the coast of Orkney. Irish-based research and Korea and Canada. Tidal power harnesses the twice daily flow of expertise has played a significant role in the development of wave the tides and as such is predictable but not constant, and is unlikely power and illustrates the potential opportunities that could be to be significantly affected by weather conditions. offered by investing in renewable technologies. Northern Ireland is playing a very prominent, if not a leading, In 2009, SEAI39 estimated the potential installed capacity for role in the sphere of tidal stream power. This is primarily due to wave power at over 1,400 MW or 1.4 GW for 2020. This figure was the installation of the SeaGen turbine in Strangford Lough, which within the range of a previous study by the ESBI, which estimated was the first full-scale tidal steam turbine to be connected to the the capacity in Irish waters (ROI and NI) at between 180 MW grid to produce electricity for consumption. Strangford Lough is and 2,770 MW, or 0.18 and 2.77 GW, with an estimated annual one of the most designated marine sites in these islands and is a production of 1,200-24,000 GWh/y (between 2% and 52% of the SAC, designated under the Habitats Directive, an SPA designated projected demand under the central scenario and 2% to 60% of the under the Wild Birds Directive, and a Ramsar wetland. It also projected demand under the ambitious scenario). contains a number of Areas of Special Scientific Interest (ASSIs). Consequently, an extensive environmental assessment and Figure 5. Sum of GWh/y monitoring programme was established to assess the potential Wave power impact of the turbine on the protected species and habitats over 50,000 electricicty 45,000 time. In summary, the assessment found that there would be no generation 40,000 significant negative impact from the installation and operation potential compared 35,000 of the turbine. Though there were some initial problems, SeaGen to projected 30,000 delivered its full rated power of 1.2 MW for the first time on 18 25,000 demand 2030 December 200841 – believed to be the first time a ‘wet renewable 20,000 15,000 energy system’ has delivered in excess of 1 MW: enough to supply 10,000 approximately 1,000 homes. 5,000 0 Ambitious Central Wave Wave demand demand power power scenario scenario potential potential 2030 2030 (high) (low)

Electricity demand Electricity production

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The SEAI/Marine Institute projections42 advise that there is a In summary, similar marine-based legislation and policies are practical tidal stream resource of 750 MW producing 2,633 GWh/ being developed for the waters all around the island, under both year (around 5% of the projected demand under the central scenario jurisdictions, and these new polices will need to be adhered to and around 7% of the projected demand under ambitious scenario). and factored in to any plans for the development of marine-based These projections are based on the assumption that installations renewable energy sources in future. will be located in a water depth of between 10m and 40m, within

territorial waters, i.e. up to 12 nautical miles from shore. The Figure 6. Sum of GWh/y marine environment is a challenging one and the development of Tidal power 50,000 second or third generation technologies, better able to cope with electricity 45,000 the harsh conditions in the marine environment, may be required generation potential 40,000 35,000 compared to before some of the more challenging locations can be exploited. It 30,000 may be that the potential for tidal power increases as technological projected demand 25,000 improvements allow the expansion of tidal power into areas that 2030 20,000 may not be exploited by the technologies currently available. 15,000 10,000 However, there are many factors influencing the development of 5,000 marine-based renewables, including marine-based legislation. In 0 Ambitious Central Tidal power addition to the proposed introduction of a Northern Ireland Marine demand demand Bill in 2012, the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) scenario scenario 2030 2030 (Directive 2008/56/EC), which is based on promoting sustainable use of the seas and conserving marine ecosystems, and aims to Electricity demand Electricity production achieve good environmental status of our seas by 2020, applies to both the UK and the Republic of Ireland. In this regard, the aims and objectives of the MSFD are similar to those of the UK Marine Act 2009 and the proposed Northern Ireland Marine Bill, which is due to be enacted by spring 2013. There are many steps on the way to the introduction of new legislation and at the time of writing the Northern Ireland Marine Bill had only taken some, but not all, of the legal steps necessary before being enacted. The Northern Ireland Marine Bill should bring Northern Ireland up to speed with the rest of the UK, allowing for marine spatial planning to help better manage the sustainable use of the sea, protection and enhancement of important marine species and habitats through the designation of marine conservation zones, and streamlining of licensing for marine activities including offshore energy projects.

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The mild, wet Sustainable bioenergy 12% of the National Grid daily usage. The report did not explore the climate means WWF regards energy derived from organic-based materials, potential impact of heat production from AD. including what are currently referred to as farming or forestry that the potential While WWF recognises the potential for renewable bioenergy ‘wastes’ such as manures and forestry brash (off-cuts), as sources to be grown locally, it believes the broader impact of their for biomass on the sustainable and/or renewable. We do not regard energy from production must be considered and acceptable levels of social and island of Ireland municipal solid waste (MSW) as sustainableiv. The mild, wet climate environmental performance in the production of bioenergy among is the highest in means that the potential for biomass on the island of Ireland is the supply chain actors, from growers to end users, should be factored highest in Europe, at 10 oven-dried tonnes per hectare43. Europe, at 10 in. For example, there is a risk, especially on a small island, that oven-dried tonnes a biofuel processing plant would create a market demand that per hectare One area that cannot be met locally. This would in turn risk creating a demand for offers an importing biofuels that may not have been produced sustainably, and this could have significant, long-term detrimental consequences Figure 7. opportunity for 3.8 for people and nature, as exemplified by the biofuels produced from Biomass potential 4.3 greater energy the palm oil plantations that have been planted on former rainforest across Europe44 5.3 production across in Indonesia. the island is 6.2 In relation to sustainable biomass, in WWF’s view, the following 10.0 8.7 the anaerobic environmental principles need to be addressed by any standard as 6.2 6.1 5.8 7.2 6.1 digestion of farm a minimum both for crops produced in Northern Ireland and as a 6.2 and animal waste requirement for imported fuel sources: 6.8 4.8 7.1 • not damage high conservation value habitats and biodiversity 5.2 • not degrade soil quality 5.3 6.4 • not adversely impact the quantity and quality of freshwater resources

Ireland has the highest potential annual yield of wood in Europe (figures are based on Paterson’s Climatic • not lead to damaging release of toxic compounds into the Index m3/ha). Source: Forest Resources in Europe 1950-1990, 1994. environment • lead to substantially positive lifecycle greenhouse gas balances compared to fossil fuel equivalent. One area that offers an opportunity for greater energy production across the island is the anaerobic digestion (AD) of farm and As such, WWF Northern Ireland would prefer local native species animal wastes. According to AFBI, the Agri-Food and Biosciences to be used in bioenergy production, such as short rotation coppice Institute, 9.7 million tonnes of manure generated annually by using willow. housed livestock has the potential to produce 73 MW of electricity – 10% of Northern Ireland’s demand – and 60 MW of heat45. Ideally, energy should be generated from AD in combined heat and power plants, so that both the heat and electricity are used.

A report by the Joint Committee on Communications, Energy and iv It is likely that there will be fractions of MSW that can and should be recycled or reused or Natural Resources46 on the development of AD in the Republic of composted, and if those fractions were recycled, reused and composted that would leave a residual fraction for which the only remaining options are landfill or thermal treatment. Only in those Ireland proposed that one thousand 380 kW AD plants be built, circumstances would WWF accept the thermal treatment of waste to produce energy, and then only in a combined heat and power plant that uses the heat produced in the course of the generation of which would produce 380 MW of electricity, equivalent to about electricity. However, since Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are quite far from that point, WWF would not support the incineration of MSW at this juncture.

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Following a consultation with the Northern Ireland Authority for Geothermal Utility Regulation (UREGNI), Belfast West has been identified as Geothermal power takes many forms – from the ground source heat a potential site for a biomass-fuelled electricity generation station pump (GSHP) where water is pumped through pipes a matter of of up to 300MW capacity47, so there may well be a significant metres below the surface and is heated by the soil by a few degrees expansion of the contribution from biomass in Northern Ireland in centigrade, to operations that work at depths of up to several the short term. In the medium to longer term, there does not appear kilometres and which involve the heating of water by rocks to to be any strategic planning for an expansion of energy production temperatures of up to 250oC – (this is sometimes referred to as the from biomass, and any expansion is more likely to be small to hot dry rock system). The shallow GSHP system could be used almost medium scale on-farm development. anywhere, but the potential for the deeper system is more limited in scope – for example, it is used primarily for heating purposes in and While bioenergy is predominantly grown from land-based around Paris and Munich but it is likely to have a more limited scope. cultivation (90% of the world’s biofuel production is currently bioethanol, made largely from sugar cane and maize, with the In the Republic of Ireland, north Leinster and the area around remaining 10% coming from plant oils such as rapeseed, soya and Mallow in Cork have been identified as the areas of most potential, palm)48, the potential to produce biofuels and other fuels, namely while in Northern Ireland the areas with greatest potential are in and methane and ethanol, from marine algae was investigated by the around Larne and Ballymoney. Biomara project, involving partners from Northern Ireland, the No analysis was found which quantified the geothermal energy Republic of Ireland and Scotland. Among other things this research resource for electricity generation. However, a geothermal resource aimed to produce biodiesel from sustainably produced high-oil- map has been produced by SEAI which indicates that significant yielding microalgae. It appears there is potential for producing geothermal sources exist with the potential for commercial biomass on land and sea. development. Also, a study by Action Renewables has shown that geothermal applications may be possible in Northern Ireland, though Figure 8. Sum of GWh/y the study suggests it may be better used directly for heating, rather Sustainable 50,000 bioenergy electricity 45,000 than for electricity generation. 40,000 generation potential However, it remains unclear if and how the deeper hot dry rock-based 35,000 compared to 30,000 geothermal power will develop across the island as the policy and demand in 2030 25,000 regulatory framework is seen by stakeholders working in geothermal 20,000 power as a key area which could impede or facilitate its development 15,000 in the future, and at this point in time it is very difficult to predict 10,000 how this may change. 5,000 0 Ambitious Central Sustainable demand demand bioenergy scenario scenario 2030 2030

Electricity demand Electricity production

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Hydropower Landfill gas It is estimated that there is (as of 2012) 21 MW of small-scale hydro Strictly speaking, landfill gas is not a renewable energy source, capacity installed in rivers and streams across the Republic of but a by-product. However, it is a potential source of energy that is Ireland with a further 4 MW in Northern Ireland49. Although this is a underexploited in Northern Ireland as compared to Great Britain. mature technology, the lack of suitable new locations limits increased In the Republic of Ireland there is currently an estimated 38 MW contribution from small-scale hydro. As a result it is likely there will of landfill gas-powered generation and 11 MW in Northern Ireland. be only a limited expansion of small-scale hydro, if at all. The system operator SONI has assumed that landfill gas generation capacity will reach 25 MW in Northern Ireland by 202051. SEAI/ The larger scale hydropower generation is currently around 240 MW DECNR52 quantified the potential for landfill gas for 2020 at 47-58 (230 MW in the Republic of Ireland operated by ESB and 10 MW in MW. If a capacity factor of 75% is assumed, the use of the higher of Northern Ireland). The production of energy from hydropower in these figures will yield around 430 GWh/year. Northern Ireland is due to expand with the (small-scale) Roe Valley hydropower project in Derry. But overall, the Garrad Hassan research It is likely that by 2030 waste reduction measures and the exhaustion considered the additional hydropower resource to be limited. of existing landfills will have resulted in a substantially reduced landfill gas potential, and the SEAI roadmap for bioenergy shows The National Renewable Action Plan for the Republic of Ireland landfill gas production in the Republic of Ireland dropping to zero forecasts no growth for electricity generation from hydropower by 2030. As such, landfill gas may only make a short-term, non- between 2005 and 2020. The All-Island Grid Study found a potential significant contribution to energy demand in Northern Ireland and capacity of 99 MW for small hydropower, much of it in very small the Republic of Ireland, but it could provide some additional energy project sizes. This potential could result in a yearly energy yield of in the intervening time. And if it replaces fossil fuel-generated energy approximately 350 GWh/year, assuming a capacity factor of 40%. then it should be exploited. The existing 290 MW pumped-storage station at Turlough Hill, near Glendalough in Wicklow50 (Ireland’s only pumped storage hydroelectricity power plant) is assumed to continue in operation, but does not contribute to net electricity production. Additional pumped storage plant is anticipated.

Figure 9. Sum of GWh/y Hydro power 50,000 electricity 45,000 generation 40,000 35,000 potential compared 30,000 to projected 25,000 demand in 2030 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Ambitious Central Hydro power demand demand scenario scenario 2030 2030

Electricity demand Electricity production

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The European Climate Foundation’s Key Findings Roadmap 205053 report looked at scenarios for decarbonising the Glossary European electricity system. Its key findings included: Carbon Capture and Department of Communications, though a HDVC will not be Storage (CCS) Energy and Natural Resources synchronous (at the same A means of capturing and (DCENR) frequency) as the AC system storing carbon, usually A Republic of Ireland in the grid. l Energy efficiency measures could reduce the cost of decarbonising in the form of carbon government department the European power sector by up to 30%, thus avoiding the Megawatt (MW) dioxide, at the point of with responsibility for construction of 440 mid-sized coal power stations. One million watts. generation, usually a fossil energy policy. fuel power station. The Megawatt Hour (MWh) l A future European electricity supply system based on 100% Gigawatt (GW) carbon dioxide is usually The use of one Megawatt of renewable energy and enhanced interconnection is technically A unit of electricity transported via pipes and electricity equivalent for one feasible. Nuclear and coal CCS plants “are not essential to equivalent to 1,000 MW stored underground, often hour. decarbonise the power sector while safeguarding system reliability”. or 1,000,000 kW or in depleted oil and gas 1,000,000,000 watts. SEM reservoirs. l The Single Electricity Increased interconnection between EU member states can Gigawatt hour (GWh) Committee on Climate Market, established in substantially reduce the costs of building a European renewable The use of one Gigawatt of Change (CCC) 2006, means all electricity electricity system. In the 80% renewable energy scenario, increased electricity equivalent for one An independent body set up produced in Northern interconnection at EU level reduces the amount of back up power hour. stations would need by up to 35-40%. to monitor the UK’s progress Ireland and the Republic towards the targets in the High Voltage Direct of Ireland is pooled and l Building interconnection infrastructure amounts to a small part of UK’s Climate Change Act Current (HVDC) suppliers in Northern total infrastructure spending in the EU power sector (0.5% to 1.6% and to provide advice to the A high-voltage, direct Ireland and the Republic of of total power sector costs, according to the report’s 40% to 80% UK government and and current (HVDC) electric Ireland buy electricity from renewable energy scenarios). devolved administrations on power transmission system this single pool. how to meet these targets. uses direct current for Terawatt the bulk transmission of Curtailment 1,000 GW or 1,000,000 electrical power, in contrast The practice of reducing MW. with the more common the output of a generator to alternating current systems. Terawatt hour (TWh) below what it is capable of The advantage of HVDC is The use of one terawatt of producing. the ability to transmit large electricity for one hour. Department of Enterprise amounts of power over long Trade and Investment (DETI) distances with lower capital A Northern Ireland costs and with lower losses government department than AC and is the preferred with responsibility for choice for undersea cables energy policy. and interconnectors,

WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 40 WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 41 Acknowledgements References

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WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 42 Positive energy in numbers P O

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