REPORT SUMMARY 2012 Climate Change Sustainability Conservation Positive Energy: how renewable electricity can transform the island of Ireland by 2030~ About WWF-UK WWF was established in 1961 and is at the heart of global efforts CONTENTS to address the world’s most important challenges. We work with communities, businesses and governments in over 100 countries to help people and nature thrive. Together, we’re safeguarding BACKGROUND TO THis RepORT 5 the natural world, tackling climate change and enabling people to use only their fair share of natural resources. EXecUTIVE SUMMARY The way energy is produced and used has a massive impact on Key findings of GL Garrad Hassan report 6 the world. Energy for heating, electricity, transport and industry Summary of WWF policy recommendations accounts for around three quarters of global greenhouse gas and conclusions 8 emissions. As well as driving climate change, fossil fuels can damage ecosystems, cause air pollution and have serious CHAPTER ONE: health impacts. We’re working to change that by engaging with How the scenarios were developed 10 governments, businesses and consumers to create a sustainable, Scenarios examined by GL Garrad Hassan 12 efficient and renewable energy system. Other projections for generation capacity 12 Security of supply 14 The role of interconnection Scenarios A, B and C 16 CHAPTER TWO: The benefits of decarbonising electricity 18 Learning from others 20 The economic benefits of developing a low-carbon economy 20 CHAPTER THRee: Renewable resource size and generation capacity 26 Overview 27 Onshore wind 28 Offshore wind 29 Wave power 30 Tidal power – tidal range and tidal stream 31 Sustainable bioenergy 34 Geothermal 37 Hydropower 38 Landfill gas 39 KEY FINDINGS OF ROADMAP 2050 40 GLOssARY 41 REFERENCES 42 © © CREDIT HERE D EREK This report follows on from others C by WWF on the issue of renewable ULLEN / FÁILTE BACKGROUND energy including one by WWF-UK, TO THIS REPORT Positive Energy: how renewable I electricity can transform the UK RELAND by 20301, published in November 2011. Because of the existence of the Single Electricity Market (SEM), 2030 WWF decided to undertake a more thorough assessment of the potential circumstances relating to electricity generation and GL Garrad Hassan investigated the potential consumption in Ireland . WWF commissioned GL Garrad Hassan to decarbonise electricity to undertake additional modelling to investigate the potential to demand in Northern decarbonise the electricity demand in Northern Ireland and the Ireland and the Republic 2 of Ireland by 2030 Republic of Ireland by 2030 . The GL Garrad Hassan report is the first modelling undertaken that projects the electricity demand in both parts of Ireland as far as 2030. The question that formed the basis of this is: How could the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland meet electricity demand in 2030 and achieve the maximum possible decarbonisation of the power sector by that same date, without endangering security of supply, or relying on new nuclear capacity or the use of unsustainable biomass? WWF believes that we must decarbonise the power sector in an environmentally-sustainable way. Taking into consideration the unacceptable risk of a catastrophic accident and the legacy of dangerous radioactive waste, for which there is currently no effective long-term solution, we’re convinced that nuclear power is neither desirable nor necessary to meet our future energy needs. We regard nuclear power as an unsustainable and extremely expensive low-carbon option. WWF also wanted to assess the potential for decarbonising the electricity sector without excessive use of biomass, as there are concerns in some instances about the sustainability impacts of biomass production on water resources, biodiversity and food security, particularly in developing countries. CaptionThere is tosubstantially go here more renewable capacity available to the island of Ireland than is needed to meet electricity demand but heating and transport fuels will also need to be decarbonised. WWF-UKWWF-UK Positive Positive energy energy summary summary 2012 2012 page page 4 4 WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 5 EXecUTIVE SUMMARY Key findings of GL Garrad Hassan report 1. By 2030, more than 70% of the projected electricity demand in the 4. Additional demand for electricity is manageable SEM could be provided by renewable energy The additional demand for electricity arising from the electrification Renewable electricity could provide between 72% and 84% of of the heating and transport sectors is manageable, especially if part the projected electricity demand in the SEM by 2030 without of that demand is deferred to outside of peak hours. The additional compromising security of supply. Bold and stable policies by the demand arising from the electrification of transport, in line with administrations in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, Republic of Ireland targets as of January 2012, is less than 2% including a commitment to renewable energy, will be required to of predicted demand for 2020. The additional demand from the achieve this goal. electrification of heating would amount to roughly 8% of predicted electricity demand in 2020. 2. Potential supply can greatly exceed potential demand The island of Ireland has a significantly larger renewable energy 5. Decarbonising Ireland’s power sector could maintain security of resource available than would be needed to meet the projected supply and ensure electricity demands are met annual electricity demand in 2030. The GL Garrad Hassan report In a decarbonised power sector across the island of Ireland, a level reviews estimates of the renewable resource potential, which for both of gas-fired generation capacity similar to current levels would be Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland by 2030 is between sufficient to maintain security of supply and ensure that electricity 1,000 and 2,200 TWh/y (1,000,000 and 2,200,000 GWh/y)3. This demand is met at all times. This is based on a worst-case scenario represents a potential to generate between approximately 21 and 60 analysis where a prolonged cold and calm spell during winter, of times the projected demand for electricity by 2030 from renewables. several consecutive weeks, reduces the production from renewable energy sources over that period. There is the potential, with overall 3. Increased interconnection has significant benefits demand reduction, to reduce the gas generation capacity down to Increasing the levels of interconnection would provide additional 5,400 MW, which is below current levels (5,700 MW), if there is a access to export markets for renewable electricity generated in higher level of interconnection to mainland Europe. Northern Ireland and/or the Republic of Ireland which would enable a higher volume of renewable capacity in the SEM. If there were 1,000 MW of interconnection with mainland Europe, the level of gas-fired generation capacity needed on the island could be reduced by 1,000 MW from the anticipated levels in 2030. Interconnection, along with storage and demand side management, has an important role to play in balancing supply and demand with output from baseload and intermittent generation. WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 6 WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 7 © BRENT STIRTON / GETTY Executive summary © CREDIT HERE Summary of WWF Northern Ireland policy I MA G recommendations and conclusions MAXIMise E S / WWF- In order to maximise this potential, and ensure the shift away 1 from fossil fuels, clear, long-term energy plans and government POTENTAL UK commitments and polices are needed. The Northern Ireland and the DEVELOPMENT OF A Republic of Ireland governments should make the development of a low-carbon economy a political and economic priority. A fundamental LOW-CARBON ECONOMY means of achieving a low-carbon future must be reducing the demand SHOULD BE A POLITICAL for electricity, and other energy sources. AND ECONOMIC PRIORITY The two governments should set a target for renewables to provide 2 at least 70% of the electricity in Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland, and collectively across the SEM, by 2030. The research by GL Garrad Hassan has shown that meeting up to 84% of final electricity demand on the island of Ireland from renewable sources by 2030 is achievable. The system operators have confirmed that accommodating up to 75% renewable electricity is possible, though this would require addressing a number of technical challenges. The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland governments should set 3 firm targets for the reduction of energy demand in each jurisdiction to 2030 and beyond. These targets should be legally binding and set for every five-year period, along the lines of the approach used in the UK of five-year carbon budgets, up to 2050. These targets SET TARGETS must be backed up by ambitious policies to drive energy-efficiency FIRM ENERGY REDUCTION improvements across the energy sector in Northern Ireland and the TARGETS SHOULD BE SET Republic of Ireland. Increasing the levels of interconnection could facilitate higher levels 4 of renewable generation and potentially reduced gas generation capacity levels. WWF’s preference would be for renewable generation to replace fossil fuel generation. Considering the potential to reduce fossil fuel capacity and the (four) failures of the Moyle interconnector in the two years up to July 20124, WWF would recommend the expansion of interconnection routes should be a much higher priority for both administrations. RENEWABLE The Northern Ireland administration should match the target in the 5 Republic of Ireland to have at least 10% of all vehicles electrified by Caption to go here SOURces 2020. The GL Garrad Hassan report found that there may be a small but manageable increase of approximately 2% in projected demand 84% OF FINAL ELECTRICITY by 2020 for electricity in the Republic of Ireland, with the increased DEMAND FROM electrification of transport. RENEWABLE SOURCES IS ACHIEVABLE WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 8 GL Garrad Hassan used many In this ambitious scenario, annual electricity demand is 80% CHAPTER ONE: of the existing studies and of that of the central scenario.