Reliance Industries
14 April 2020 Company Update Reliance Industries Investment in consumer business paying BUY off, upgrade to Buy CMP (as on 13 Apr 20) Rs 1,191 Target Price Rs 1,400 RIL stock has corrected by 25% from its peak over the past 4 months driven by global economic slowdown concerns. Our view that the stock price correction NIFTY 8,994 is overdone, and the stock should outperform, is premised on 1) Non-cyclical domestic consumer business accounting for 56% of FY21E EBITDA (31% in KEY CHANGES OLD NEW FY19), 2) The stock factoring only an USD 3.0/bbl FY21E refining margin, 49% Rating ADD BUY lower than Global Financial Crises (GFC) quarterly trough and 3) Interest Price Target Rs 1,566 Rs 1,400 Coverage ratio of 4.3x and Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.6x in FY22E (12-35% better FY21E FY22E than the FY19 lows). The stock offers 18% upside at our TP of INR 1,400. EPS % -27% -10% No financial stress even under economic slowdown conditions KEY STOCK DATA We estimate that even with refining margins of USD 5.9/bbl (lowest quarterly Bloomberg code RIL IN margin during the Global Financial Crises and 36% lower than 3QFY20) and Petchem margins at a discount of 29% to 3QFY20 (lowest quarterly margin in No. of Shares (mn) 6,339 last 13 years), RIL’s FY21E EBITDA would be INR 775bn, more than adequate to MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 7,737/101,358 service its INR 2.9trn of debt. 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 17,400 52 Week high / low Rs 1,618/876 Jio: Next catalysts-Mobile revenue growth, fibre broadband ramp-up With about USD 50bn (50% of market cap) invested in telecom, Jio’s revenue STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) market share growth and monetisation continues to drive a significant 3M 6M 12M proportion of the value creation opportunity for RIL’s shareholders.
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