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1 November 2020 2QFY21 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas Reliance Industries Estimate change CMP: INR2,054 TP: INR2,240 (+8%) Buy TP change Rating change Consumer biz cushions sharp fall in Oil and Gas biz Reliance Industries (RIL)’s 2QFY21 consolidated/standalone business EBITDA was Bloomberg RIL IN down 14%/44% YoY. This was weighed by sharp decline in refining Equity Shares (m) 6,339 throughput/margin and a weak Retail biz (hurt by the lockdown), but partly offset M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 13524.8 / 180 by the growing Digital business. 52-Week Range (INR) 2369 / 867 RJio’s revenue/EBITDA growth slowed to 6%/7% QoQ (in-line) due to the 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -12/24/41 combination of 3% ARPU and subscriber growth each, coupled with 60bp margin 12M Avg Val (INR M) 29721 expansion to 42.6%. Reliance Retail’s net revenues were flat YoY at INR366b (in-line). This is Financials & Valuations (INR b) commendable despite the lockdown and lack of footfall at stores in 2QFY21. Y/E March FY21E FY22E FY23E Net Sales 5,438 7,191 7,845 During the quarter, RIL operated its refining and petrochemical units at >90% EBITDA 823 1,217 1,397 despite the much lower utilization rates of its Indian peers – the company is Net Profit 418 677 809 enjoying the benefits of its integrated Oils-to-Chemicals (O2C) business model. Adj. EPS (INR) 64.8 105.1 125.6 Despite a poor SG GRM benchmark, RIL reported a GRM of USD5.7/bbl. RIL EPS Gr. (%) -3.0 62.1 19.5 believes the domestic market for petroleum products is poised for recovery. We BV/Sh. (INR) 787.8 884.0 999.2 Ratios believe revival in domestic demand, particularly in the Agriculture, Auto, and Net D:E 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 FMCG sectors, would support RIL’s operating rates and margins further. RoE (%) 8.7 12.6 13.3 Using SOTP, we value the Refining and Petrochemical segment at EV/EBITDA of RoCE (%) 9.4 14.0 15.4 7.5x to arrive at a valuation of INR723/share for the standalone. We ascribe an Payout (%) 9.8 8.4 8.3 equity valuation of INR900/share to RJio and INR627/share to Reliance Retail, Valuations P/E (x) 31.9 19.7 16.4 factoring in the recent stake sale. Our higher EV/EBITDA multiple of 31x for retail P/BV (x) 2.6 2.3 2.1 and 18x for digital services underscore new growth opportunities in the Digital EV/EBITDA (x) 16.7 10.6 8.7 space, along with the rationalization of tariffs in RJio. Reiterate Buy, with Target EV/Sales (x) 2.5 1.8 1.6 Price of INR2,240/share. Div. Yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.4 Shareholding pattern (%) 2QFY21 snapshot: Consol. and standalone EBITDA in line with estimates As On Sep-20 Jun-20 Sep-19 Standalone EBITDA came in ~44% YoY lower at INR76.5b (in line with Promoter 49.1 49.2 48.9 estimates) due to lower GRM (at USD5.7/bbl; -40% YoY) and lower refining DII 13.0 13.5 14.2 throughput (15.3mmt; -8% YoY). PBT stood at INR47.6b (-61% YoY / -43% FII 27.2 26.6 25.6 QoQ). Reported PAT stood at INR65.5b (-33% YoY and -30% QoQ), higher Others 10.6 10.8 11.4 than PBT on account of tax write back. FII Includes depository receipts Consol. EBITDA was in line with estimates at INR189.5b (-14% YoY and +12% QoQ), with PBT of INR104.8b (-30% YoY and -20% QoQ). Reported PAT stood at INR95.7b (-16% YoY and -28% QoQ), higher than PBT on account of tax write back in 2QFY21. RJio – growth momentum slows Subscriber growth slowed to 7.3m (from 10.8m in 1QFY21). On the other hand, ARPU improved by 3%, benefiting from a tariff increase, driving 6% EBITDA growth, with 60bp margin expansion. Swarnendu Bhushan- Research analyst ([email protected]) Aliasgar Shakir – Research analyst ([email protected]) Sarfraz Bhimani - Research Analyst ([email protected]) Investors1 November 2020are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.1 Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. Reliance Industries Cumulative ARPU growth in the last four quarters has been moderate at 14%, against Bharti’s 27%, and average tariff hike at about 25%. Nevertheless, its venture into multiple digital services, along with scope for ARPU improvement, offers ample growth opportunity. We expect revenue growth of 31%/19% and EBITDA growth of 50%/42% over FY21/FY22E. This is on the back of 12%/7% subscriber/ARPU growth over FY20– 22E. Reliance Retail – maintains strong performance in slowing economy Retail’s blended EBITDA fell 14% YoY to INR20b (11% beat), and margins stood at 5.5% (v/s 6.3% in 2QFY20). EBIT stood at INR15b (down 25% YoY). 85% of Reliance Retail’s stores are currently operational (higher than 50% operational stores in 1QFY21) – footfall was at ~75% of pre-COVID-19 levels in 2QFY21, with Sept’20 footfall at ~85%. Despite the tough economic environment, Reliance Retail added 125 net stores (total 232 new store launches / 107 store closures) in 2QFY21. Refining – GRM at USD5.7/bbl (lowest ever) In 2Q, COVID-19 impacted economic activity and thus demand for petroleum products across the globe. To arrest the unprecedented demand destruction, OPEC+ announced production cuts, which aided the demand-supply balance in the markets, supporting crude prices in 2QFY21. Although, production discipline led to tight supply of various crude grades; thus, the AL-AH differential narrowed to USSD0.30/bbl during the quarter. SG GRM increased in 2Q primarily on account of improvement in gasoline cracks owing to driving season in the West. However, the lack of revival in air travel has led to ATF cracks tanking further, with gasoil cracks posting a fall (the lowest ever since 1Q03) due to the lack of demand in Europe and Asia. Refining throughput was in line with est. at 15.3mmt (-8% YoY and -8% QoQ). GRM came in marginally lower than est. at USD5.7/bbl v/s our est. of USD6/bbl (USD9.4 in 2QFY20 and USD6.3 in 1QFY21). Refining EBIT was down 64% YoY at INR17.5b, weighed by poor GRM. RIL’s GRM at USD5.7/bbl was at its lowest ever. Petchem – margins revive QoQ on the back of demand Petchem volumes stood at 9.7mmt (+5% est.; -2% YoY and +9% QoQ). Segmental EBIT declined 35% YoY to INR48.4b on lower price realizations, weighed by COVID-19 demand destruction. However, with the lifting of lockdown in 2QFY21, the global Petchem industry experienced strong signs of economic revival, led by growth in Consumer Durables and FMCG. Demand was further supported by a) increased housing spends in the US and China toward home improvements and b) revival in the Auto sector due to a shift in mobility preferences. This further led to consistent improvement in petchem cracks throughout the quarter sequentially. Thus, implied petchem margins were better than est. at USD82.6/mt v/s our est. of USD60 (-36% YoY and +26% QoQ). However, high China PTA and PX inventories kept prices and margins in check. 1 November 2020 2 Reliance Industries Valuation and view Conso. Sep’20 debt stands at INR2,793b and cash & equivalent at INR1,857b. The company has received INR302.1b in 3QFY20’td and considering balance commitments of INR735.9b, ceteris paribus, the company stands net cash at INR102b. Jio Platforms Ltd – RJio’s holding company is keen to replicate its success in Wireless in other business streams. With aggressive plans and product launches in place, Jio Platforms is creating multiple monetization opportunities in the Digital space. Thus, we assign an EV/EBITDA multiple of 18x on Sep’22E EBITDA to arrive at TP of INR1,354 (INR1,125 earlier), factoring in the recent 34% stake sale. Thus, RJio’s value in RIL share comes to INR900/share (for its 66% stake). The higher multiple captures digital revenue opportunity, potential tariff hikes, and opportunity in the Low-cost Device market, among others, not built into our estimates. We value Reliance Retail’s core business at 31x Sep’22E EV/EBITDA and petro- retail/connectivity at Sept’22E 4x EV/EBITDA to arrive at Enterprise Value of INR4.4t and Target Price of INR683. Reliance Retail’s value in RIL share comes to INR627 (for its 92% stake). Our premium valuation underscores Reliance Retail’s aggressive footprint addition and the recent JioMart-led online opportunity, which could offer huge growth potential over time. RIL further plans to streamline its O2C Integration business and focus on expanding its Fuel Marketing business. Factoring in the current poor refining margin environment, we have revised down our 3Q/4QFY21 GRM estimates by USD1/bbl to USD7/bbl. However, the huge beat at the PAT level in 2Q makes the cut insignificant. As per our calculation, with every 10% change in petchem margins or refining GRM, EBITDA sensitivity stands at 5–6% on standalone and 3% on consolidated basis. Currently, chemical conversion stands at 24% for RIL. In FY20, its EBITDA from Refining stood at USD6.6/bbl v/s ~USD15.6/bbl from Petrochemical. According to our estimate, a 10% rise in chemical production from the current slate and EBITDA improvement at the refinery-cum-petrochemical complex could be as high as USD476m or 6%/3% of standalone/consol.
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