India Internet a Closer Look Into the Future We Expect the India Internet TAM to Grow to US$177 Bn by FY25 (Excl
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EQUITY RESEARCH | July 27, 2020 | 10:48PM IST India Internet A Closer Look Into the Future We expect the India internet TAM to grow to US$177 bn by FY25 (excl. payments), 3x its current size, with our broader segmental analysis driving the FY20-25E CAGR higher to 24%, vs 20% previously. We see market share likely to shift in favour of Reliance Industries (c.25% by For the exclusive use of [email protected] FY25E), in part due to Facebook’s traffic dominance; we believe this partnership has the right building blocks to create a WeChat-like ‘Super App’. However, we do not view India internet as a winner-takes-all market, and highlight 12 Buy names from our global coverage which we see benefiting most from growth in India internet; we would also closely watch the private space for the emergence of competitive business models. Manish Adukia, CFA Heather Bellini, CFA Piyush Mubayi Nikhil Bhandari Vinit Joshi +91 22 6616-9049 +1 212 357-7710 +852 2978-1677 +65 6889-2867 +91 22 6616-9158 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 85e9115b1cb54911824c3a94390f6cbd Goldman Sachs India SPL Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Goldman Sachs India SPL Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs India Internet Table of Contents PM Summary: A Closer Look Into the Future 3 The landscape 5 Q&A with our global analysts 9 Overview of our internet TAMs 11 Companies in our global coverage with exposure to India Internet 16 Unicorns in India Internet 21 Snapshot of Facebook and Google in India 22 RIL + Facebook: The quest to create a ‘Super App’ 28 Assessing the COVID-19 impact by India internet segment 37 Online retail: Biggest battleground with focus on grocery 38 Travel: Mature but with pockets of growth 53 Food delivery: Near term cool-off after aggressive expansion 59 Ride-hailing: Multi-faceted competition; profitability uncertain 65 Entertainment: The most competitive internet sub-segment 71 Online gaming: 4x GTV growth over next five years 77 Advertising & classifieds: The most profitable vertical 81 Education: Profitable with high growth potential 85 Fintech: Large TAM but monetization elusive 87 Profiles of private internet companies 100 For the exclusive use of [email protected] Appendix: Global valuations, etc. 101 Disclosure Appendix 104 85e9115b1cb54911824c3a94390f6cbd 27 July 2020 2 Goldman Sachs India Internet PM Summary: A Closer Look Into the Future We believe the recent Reliance Industries (RIL) and Facebook partnership could increase monetization levels of India internet, and garner c.25% of all internet Gross Transaction Value (GTV)1 by FY25. With a user base of 400mn+ in India, and three out of the top five apps in the country (in terms of Daily Active Users and time spent), we believe Facebook, along with its partner RIL, can bring more transacting users (c.100mn currently) into the fold, especially in e-commerce, the largest internet category. This increased penetration is a key driver of India internet, where we expect the TAM to grow 3x to reach US$177 bn over the next five years; overall we forecast internet to account for 7% of all consumption spend in India by FY25, vs 3.6%/20% in India/China at present. We see India internet at an inflection point both in terms of growth and profitability. We present new analysis for multiple categories including e-commerce, entertainment, gaming, ride-hailing, advertising and fintech, among others. Overall, we expect 24% FY20-25E CAGR in GTV for India internet (20% earlier), with growth rates ranging from 14% in classifieds/travel to 75%+ in grocery/FMCG. We expect e-commerce (incl. grocery) to be the biggest battleground, constituting >50% of India internet’s TAM in FY25E, with Amazon, Flipkart and RIL/Facebook the likely contenders. Profitability remains elusive for most India internet segments, but we believe consolidation, and diversification into newer verticals, will help bring down customer acquisition costs for platforms; we forecast a US$8 bn profit pool for India internet by FY25, with a potential total market value of US$246 bn2. The key question remains whether a ‘Super App’, similar to WeChat in China, can emerge in India. Existing players have so far been largely unsuccessful; however, we believe Facebook and RIL have the right building blocks to create a platform with both high engagement and monetization, but execution remains key. In our base case, we expect c.25% of all internet GTV to be driven by a potential Super App (including RIL apps) by FY25, while in our blue sky scenario we expect c.35% internet GTV and 50%+ For the exclusive use of [email protected] of digital payments volumes to be driven by a potential Super App (incl. RIL apps) by FY25. We believe RIL would increasingly try to play a role across the consumer spectrum, including telecom network, devices, operating system and apps. We extensively cross-reference work from our regional/global teams in terms of evolution of internet in their respective markets, and attempt to analyse India internet from both a global and local lens. Our top stock ideas with relatively more exposure to India internet include: Buy (on CL) - Reliance Industries, Amazon, Alphabet, Prosus, Sea 85e9115b1cb54911824c3a94390f6cbd Ltd., HDFC Bank; Buy - Facebook, Walmart, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, MMYT, Blue Dart; Sell - Info Edge and Jubilant Food. 1 Gross Transaction Value is the total amount of products/services sold though a platform. Platforms (marketplaces) charge a take rate (commission) on the GTV, which is recognized as revenue for the platform. 2 Value or valuation of different segments throughout this report refers to potential cumulative market value of all the firms within that sector assuming normalised profits and multiple. All such value numbers for FY24E (March 24E), based on FY25 net income. 27 July 2020 3 Goldman Sachs India Internet See inside for... n Why RIL+FB could drive c.25% of all internet GTV by FY25, vs <5% today for super apps n Verticals which benefit the most from 50 GB of data at US$3 per month n <500k grocery orders per month to >5 mn in five years - drivers and winners n 1P vs 3P regulations - why we think it’s advantage RIL on pricing and supply chain n Why real-money games dominate the online gaming landscape with 2/3 share n Why we think cash burn of verticals such as travel and food delivery could look better post COVID n Digital payments: >US$200 bn in transactions but $0 revenues, yet an attractive vertical ...and a lot more. Exhibit 1: Online penetration in India lower than China, but in line with Indonesia across most categories Penetration of online across different segments for India vs China, USA and Indonesia (2019 or latest available) 90% 80% Triangles show 70% India FY25E penetration, GSe China 60% US India 50% Indonesia 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Air travel Payment (non- Advertisement Hotels Ecommerce Food services FMCG/ grocery cash as % of total) Source: Euromonitor, Kantar, emarketer, Worldpay (FIS), iResearch, PhocusWright, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research For the exclusive use of [email protected] The authors would like to thank Ronald Keung, Miang Chuen Koh, Pramod Kumar, Anubhav Bajpai, Shyam Srinivasan, Chandramouli Muthiah, Pulkit Patni, Deepak Krishnan, Rahul Jain, Aditya Soman, Aditya Gupta, Heath Terry, Lisa Yang, Kate McShane and Ryan Wallace for their contributions to this report. The prices in this report are as of the market close on July 24, 2020, unless otherwise stated. Fx rate of INR USD 75 (fixed Fx), and FY refers to year ending March. 85e9115b1cb54911824c3a94390f6cbd 27 July 2020 4 Goldman Sachs India Internet The landscape India is one of the world’s largest internet markets, with c.450 mn smartphone users as of FY20 (Exhibit 12), second only to China. However, monetization remains low, with less than 10% of India’s population (of 1.3 bn) transacting online (Exhibit 2, vs. 40%+ in China), and internet accounting for just 4% of all consumption spend in India. We believe this is a function of income levels - India’s per capita GDP is US$2,000, with c.75% of the population earning less than US$2,500 per year (Exhibit 11). As such, we observe that despite online penetration in most categories being at less than 20%, GTV/revenue is growing only at 20-25% YoY. Exhibit 2: Different segments address smaller subsets of the overall internet population India internet overview >550 mn 450 mn 400 mn 300 mn (online (3G/4G users) (smartphones) (video viewers) gamers) 100 mn <10 mn 40-50 mn 200 mn 25 mn (food (shoppers, (online (travel delivery) digital (music education) buyers) payers) listeners) For the exclusive use of [email protected] Smartphones exclude 4G feature phones. Data as of FY20 or latest available. Online education refers to paid users only. 550 mn 3G/4G users indicate unique users excluding multi-SIMs. Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, FICCI-EY, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research We note that companies in the India internet space continue to incur substantial cash burn, which we estimate to be >US$2.5 bn over the last 12 months.