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Air & Space Power in Nato Future Vector A ir O an AT d n N Space Power i Air & Space Power in Nato – Part II AIR & SPACE POWER IN NATO FUTURE VECTOR PART II Joint Air Power Competence Centre von-Seydlitz-Kaserne Römerstraße 140 | 47546 Kalkar (Germany) | www.japcc.org Joint Air Power Competence Centre Air and Space Power in NATO Future Vector – Part II A ir O an AT d n N Space Power i AIR AND SPACE POWER IN NATO FUTURE VECTOR PART II October 2014 Joint Air Power Competence Centre © This work is copyrighted. No part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission. Inquiries should be made to: The Editor, Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC), [email protected] Disclaimer This publication is a product of the JAPCC. The views expressed in this work are those of the authors. It does not represent the opinions or policies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and is designed to provide an independent overview, analysis and food for thought regarding possible ways ahead on this subject. Release This document is approved for public release. Portions of the document may be quoted or reproduced without permission, provided a standard source credit is included. Published and distributed by The Joint Air Power Competence Centre von-Seydlitz-Kaserne Römerstraße 140 47546 Kalkar Germany Foreword The precise application of combat power from the air has been of strategic importance to the Alliance since NATO’s inception. Time and again, NATO and its Member Nations have turned to Joint Air Power as the first, and in some cases only, military response option. Air Power, now coupled with Space Power, continues to demonstrate its inherent ability to ‘go over not through’ with attributes of speed, reach, flexibility, and precision. These combined qualities provide NATO and National political leaders with a tool of unmatched responsiveness and flexibility, supporting the political- strategic objectives of both the Alliance and its Member Nations. Despite Air and Space Power’s undeniable contribution, NATO con tinues a drastic and increasing reduction of the very same capabilities. The current ‘climate of austerity’ will put investment in future Air and Space Power under further scrutiny, resulting most likely in further diminishing the mini mum military Air and Space Power capabilities needed to support NATO’s level of ambition. Our Alliance now faces the in creasingly dire risk of not having the right capabilities and / or suf cient quantities of Air Power and access to Space capabilities to cope with the security challenges out- lined in NATO’s forward looking Strategic Concept. Therefore I directed the Joint Air Power Competence Centre to conduct the study ‘Air and Space Power in NATO – Future Vector’ to chart the path forward and guarantee Air and Space Power’s contribution to the success of NATO and the security of Member Nations. I would like to reiterate that the Future Vector Study is Joint in nature. The study focuses on Air and Space Power from all domains and includes the capability and competency requirements of all Services. V The crisis in Ukraine quickly highlighted why collective security in Europe is still required. Our Alliance will be required to execute Collective Defence, Crisis Management and Cooperative Security crisis response in a rapidly changing and challenging world. NATO and political decision-makers must continue to act collectively to maintain our asymmetric advantage – Joint Air and Space Power. I strongly encourage you to read this publication as it offers ideas and potential solutions to enhance NATO’s Joint Air and Space Power and guarantees our collective security in the coming decades. Frank Gorenc General, USA AF Director, JAPCC VI Table of Contents Foreword .....................................................................................V Executive Summary ..................................................................1 Context of the Future Vector Project ..........................................................1 A Coherent Trinity ..................................................................................................3 Key Messages ............................................................................................................4 New Ground ..............................................................................................................6 Finally .............................................................................................................................7 Key Recommendations.............................................................9 Air and Space Power in NATO 2020–2030 ..............................................9 Air and Space Power Force Structure – Towards a Right Balance ....................................................................................9 Air and Space Power: The Need for Cyber Resilience ................... 10 Air and Space Power Command and Control in NATO – More Than Just a Technical Issue ............................................................... 11 Keeping up Preparedness, Readiness and Effectiveness of Air and Space Power in NATO ................................................................ 12 Space and Air Power in NATO ...................................................................... 12 Air and Space Power in Counter Insurgency Operations .......... 13 Assured Air and Space Power Entry Capabilities in Denied Airspace Environments .................................................................. 13 VIII Air and Space Power in NATO 2020 – 2030 ..........................17 I Introduction ............................................................................................................ 17 Defence Spending .............................................................................................. 18 The Cost of The Technological Edge ....................................................... 19 The Distribution of Global Power and The Operating Environment ......................................................................... 20 Air Power – Core Roles of a Default Component ............................ 22 Constrained and Congested ........................................................................ 24 Momentum and Initiative .............................................................................. 27 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 30 Air and Space Power Force Structure – II Towards a Right Balance ........................................................35 Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 35 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 36 Current Situation .................................................................................................. 37 What is Needed and What are the Shortfalls? ................................................................................... 38 Sliding Panels – Balancing Factors in Determining a Future Force Structure .................................................................................. 41 What Needs to Happen: Remedial Action ........................................... 47 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 50 Recommendations ............................................................................................. 52 IX Table of Contents Air and Space Power: The Need for Cyber Resilience .......55 III Some Fundamental Points for Consideration .................................... 55 Options for Dealing with the Cyber Challenge ................................ 58 Air and Space Power Command and Control in NATO .....71 IV More Than Just a Technical Issue Introduction ............................................................................................................ 71 OPERATION UNIFIED PROTECTOR (OUP) – A Smaller Joint Operation Air Heavy from the Air C2 Perspective ............... 74 Air C2 in NATO Today – An Assessment ................................................ 86 Overcoming Deficits – Considerations and Proposals ................. 93 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 98 Keeping up Preparedness ................................................... 101 V Readiness and Effectiveness of Air and Space Power in NATO Addressing the New Challenges for Air Power of a Transformed and Rapidly Evolving Security Environment ...102 Conclusion and Key Recommendations: What Role for NATO? .......................................................................................112 X Space and Air Power in NATO ............................................. 117 VI Executive Summary .........................................................................................117 Introduction ..........................................................................................................118 Challenges .............................................................................................................119 Opportunities ......................................................................................................120 Policy Considerations ......................................................................................121 Recommendations ...........................................................................................125
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