Fondos Soberanos 2014 Índice 3

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Fondos Soberanos 2014 Índice 3 Fondos Soberanos 2014 Dr. Javier Santiso Profesor de Economía de ESADE Business School Vicepresidente de ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics (ESADEgeo) Índice Prefacio 5 Introducción 7 La inversión de los fondos soberanos en 2013q : Una bús ueda constante de operaciones de calidad 11 I $Q¢OLVLV*HRJU¢ĄFR 19 )RQGRVVREHUDQRVHQ(VSD²D\$PªULFD/DWLQD 21 Las inversiones en renta variable del GPFG de Noruega: Un fondo soberano europeo para Europa 49 (OVXH²RQRUWHDPHULFDQR)RQGRVS»EOLFRVHVWDGRXQLGHQVHV\FDQD GLHQVHV 633 II Análisis Sectorial 77 Inversión de los fondos soberanos en infraestructuras 79 )RQGRVVREHUDQRV\UHDOHVWDWH(OGHVSHUWDUGH(VSD²D 91 /DLQYHUVL´QGHORVIRQGRVVREHUDQRVHQVHUYLFLRVĄQDQFLHURV& RQODYLVWDHQHOSDVDGRDQWLFLSDQGRHOIXWXUR 97 5DQNLQJ(6$'(JHR)RQGRVVREHUDQRVx 105 Fondos soberanos 2014 Índice 3 Prefacio Fondos soberanos 2014 Prefacio 5 1. Prefacio Durante 2014 la recuperación de la economía mundial ha En la presente edición, el informe analiza las principales actividades continuado avanzando, aunque de manera más moderada de lo llevadas a cabo por los fondos soberanos durante 2013 y principios inicialmente previsto y dando muestra de una significativa de 2014, además de sus estrategias, decisiones de inversión y heterogeneidad, debido principalmente a las desiguales tasas de alianzas o colaboraciones con otros fondos y otros inversores crecimiento registradas en los diferentes países. Repuntó la institucionales. Además, se analizan en profundidad tres nuevas actividad en las economías avanzadas, aunque no al mismo ritmo áreas. En primer lugar, se estudia en detalle la estrategia inversora y en todas ellas. Por su parte, las economías emergentes ajustaron la cartera de activos del fondo soberano más grande del mundo: el sus tasas de crecimiento a niveles ligeramente inferiores a los Government Pension Fund Global noruego. En segundo lugar, se registrados en años anteriores. No obstante, han continuado realiza un estudio detallado de los fondos públicos norteamericanos escalando posiciones en la economía mundial, avanzando a tasas y los principales fondos de pensiones canadienses. En tercer lugar, significativamente más elevadas que las economías avanzadas y se analiza en detalle la presencia de los fondos soberanos en tres ejerciendo de motor de la economía global. sectores: infraestructuras, inmobiliario y servicios financieros. Así, economías como China, Rusia o Emiratos Árabes Unidos son Al igual que en ediciones anteriores, el informe centra la atención exportadoras de capitales cada vez más importantes, debido a su en España y sus empresas, que, en los últimos años, han alcanzado cómoda posición fiscal, sus tasas de ahorro interno y su abundante un importante protagonismo en Europa como receptoras de dotación de materias primas. En este contexto, estos países inversión de fondos soberanos y empresas estatales, sobre todo en desempeñan un rol cada vez más relevante como emisores de aquéllas con presencia en Latinoamérica. El posicionamiento inversión extranjera directa en el mundo: en 2013 las economías en estratégico de las empresas españolas, tanto geográfico como desarrollo generaron más del 33% de las salidas mundiales de sectorial, junto con el conocimiento y experiencia de sus equipos Inversión Extranjera Directa, cuando en 2000 representaron tan directivos, contribuirán a que España continúe siendo un importante solo el 12%. destino para estos inversores internacionales en los próximos años. Tal y como quedó reflejado en las ediciones anteriores del presente Esperamos que esta nueva edición del estudio sobre el papel que Informe, algunos de estos países están canalizando su creciente están teniendo los fondos soberanos en la economía mundial poder inversor a través de fondos soberanos, cuyas decisiones cuente con su interés. estratégicas cuentan con un impacto cada vez mayor en la economía mundial. Debido al relevante y creciente papel que desempeñan estos instrumentos de inversión, ESADE Business School, KPMG e ICEX-Invest in Spain, presentan la tercera edición del Informe de Fondos Soberanos, con el objetivo de seguir profundizando en el estudio de la estrategia y las tendencias mundiales de los fondos soberanos. FIRMADO Jaime García-Legaz Secretario de Estado de Comercio Javier Solana, Presidente, ESADEgeo John Scott, Presidente, KPMG España Fondos soberanos 2014 Prefacio 6 Introducción Javier Santiso Profesor de Economía, ESADE Business School Vicepresidente, ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics (ESADEgeo) Fondos soberanos 2014 Introducción 7 2. Introducción Este informe Fondos Soberanos 2014 es el tercero realizado por ê El fenómeno de los fondos soberanos continúa su expansión por ESADEgeo, con el apoyo de KPMG e ICEX-Invest in Spain. todas las regiones emergentes, no sólo por Asia y Medio Oriente, Quisiéramos empezar agradeciendo a ambas instituciones el apoyo sino también por África y América Latina. Existen en la actualidad 84 recibido, que hace realidad este tercer informe anual sobre fondos fondos soberanos operativos y sus activos alcanzan los 5,9 billones soberanos. Además, agradecemos a Javier Capapé y a Tomás de dólares. La cifra de fondos constituidos y potenciales está por Guerrero su excelente trabajo de análisis y coordinación del encima de la centena. Se mantiene la concentración de las Informe; por último, a Samuel Granados, por el diseño de inversiones: los fondos más grandes aglutinan la mayoría de las infografías de primer nivel internacional, como demuestra su operaciones. Los sectores receptores clásicos –inmobiliario y servicios reciente incorporación como editor sénior en The Washington Post. financieros– atrajeron nuevo capital. En concreto, la inversión en inmobiliario muestra bien la paradoja de muchos inversores Este trabajo no es un esfuerzo aislado. Se enmarca en una serie de institucionales en el sector: los fondos aumentan su tamaño medio y actividades impulsadas por ESADEgeo a lo largo de los últimos tres con ello experimentan mejoras de competitividad. Sin embargo, ese años. En 2011, Javier Santiso asesoró al gobierno colombiano junto al mayor tamaño también supone una dificultad a la hora de invertir entonces Ministro de Finanzas, Juan Carlos Echeverry, y su equipo, eficientemente volúmenes de capital cada vez mayores. para la creación de su fondo soberano (hoy dedicado a la innovación). También se ha lanzado una serie de conferencias sobre ê El análisis de las tendencias globales de los fondos refleja dos mercados emergentes, ESADEgeo Globalization Lab, ya que muchos tendencias importantes. Primero, se recuperan las inversiones en de estos países cuentan con instituciones de este tipo. El 30 de mayo “consorcio”: en 2013 el número de operaciones directas de 2011 se celebró un Lab sobre fondos soberanos con Victoria desarrolladas por los fondos de manera conjunta (varios fondos Barbary, entonces en Monitor Group (Londres). El 7 de febrero co-invirtiendo en el mismo activo) superó a las operaciones de 2012 contamos con Christopher Balding de la Peking University individuales. Esto no ocurría desde 2009, mostrando un aprendizaje: HSBC Business School (Shenzhen, China), quien presentó su último el fortalecimiento del conocimiento mutuo entre estos fondos. libro. Además, también contribuimos en el libro editado por Karl Segundo, destaca el interés de las inversiones Sur-Sur, que de nuevo Sauvant, Sovereign Investment, con un capítulo sobre el sesgo político alcanzan un puesto prioritario para los fondos soberanos. En este de las inversiones de los fondos soberanos. Durante el pasado curso sentido, destacamos que las dos operaciones más importantes de 2013-2014 hemos participado en la elaboración de un capítulo sobre 2013 tienen como telón de fondo un acuerdo de entendimiento los fondos soberanos y América Latina en el Global Public (MOU) entre un gobierno y un fondo soberano; en ambos casos, InvestorsbHGLWDGRSRU20),) /RQGUHV $GHP¢VKHPRV esos acuerdos se han establecido con gobiernos de países reforzado nuestra colaboración con The Fletcher School (Tufts emergentes o frontera. Qatar Investment Authority comprometió University) al incorporar el análisis de tendencias de los fondos 5.000 millones de dólares en Malasia para desarrollar un nueva área elaborado por Patrick Schena; también en 2014 presentamos un industrial petroquímica al sur de la Península; por su parte, overview de la industria de los fondos soberanos en Sciences Po Mubadala, ha firmado un acuerdo valorado en otros 5.000 millones (París). El Informe ya se ha establecido como referencia internacional: de dólares para incrementar las exportaciones de bauxita en Guinea, se trata de la única fuente especializada en fondos soberanos citada además de construir un puerto y una refinería de aluminio. por el World Investment Report 2013, editado por la UNCTAD (Ginebra). ê En el Informe 2012 resaltamos que Europa fue la principal región receptora de inversiones en 2011 y, dentro de Europa, España y sus El presente Informe se estructura en tres bloques temáticos. En el empresas fueron el principal destino de los fondos soberanos con primero abordamos las principales tendencias que han seguido los 8.340 millones de dólares de inversión, por delante de Francia, fondos soberanos a lo largo del año 2013 (Patrick Schena y Neeraj Reino Unido y Alemania. En 2013, mostramos que España continúa Prasad). En el segundo bloque, dedicado al análisis geográfico: como un objetivo prioritario de los fondos soberanos, con la centramos el objetivo sobre España y Latinoamérica (Javier Santiso y ampliación de capital de
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