Liz Keogh [email protected]
If a project has no risks, don’t do it. @lunivore The Innova on Cycle Spoilers
Differentiators Commodities
Build on Cynefin
Complex Complicated sense, probe, analyze, sense, respond respond
Obvious Chaotic sense, act, categorize, sense, respond respond With thanks to David Snowden and Cognitive Edge Es ma ng Complexity
5. Nobody has ever done it before 4. Someone outside the org has done it before (probably a compe tor) 3. Someone in the company has done it before 2. Someone in the team has done it before 1. We all know how to do it. Es ma ng Complexity 5 4 3 Analyze Probe (Break it down) (Try it out) 2
1
Fractal beauty
Feature Scenario Goal Capability
Story Feature Scenario Vision Story Goal Code Capability Feature Code Code Scenario Goal A Real ProjectWhoops, Don’t need forgot this… Can’t remember Feature what this Scenario was for… Goal Capability
Story Feature Scenario Vision Story Goal Code Capability Feature Code Code Scenario Goal
Oops, didn’t know about Look what I that… found! A Real ProjectWhoops, Don’t need forgot this… Can’t remember Um Feature what this Scenario was for… Goal Oh! Capability
Hmm! Story FeatureOoh, look! Scenario Vision Story GoalThat’s Code funny! Capability Feature Code Er… Code Scenario Dammit! Oops! Oh F… Interes ng! Goal Sh..!
Oops, didn’t know about Look what I that… found! We are uncovering be er ways of developing so ware by doing it
Feature Scenario Goal Capability
Story Feature Scenario Vision Story Goal Code Capability Feature Code Code Scenario Goal We’re discovering how to discover stuff by doing it
Can’t Don’t need Whoops, remember this… forgot what this was for… Um… Oh! Hmm! Ooh, look! That’s funny! Er… Oops! Sh..! Dammit! Oh F… Interes ng! Oops, didn’t know about Look what I that… found!
Risk (Newest Stuff) First
Feature Scenario Goal Capability
Story FeatureStory ScenarioFeature Vision ScenarioStory GoalGoal Code Capability Feature Code Code Scenario Goal If your stakeholders don’t trust you, that’s your biggest risk A Safe-To-Fail Probe has…
A way of knowing it’s succeeding A way of knowing it’s failing A way of dampening it A way of amplifying it Coherence
Coherence
A realis c reason for thinking the probe might have a posi ve impact
Can you give me an example?
@lunivore Well-formed outcomes Vision Hearing Smell Taste Sensa on Kinesthe c Propriacep on
@lunivore In high uncertainty…
…scenarios provide coherence, not tests
@lunivore Coherence
Given my boyfriend and I have been going out for four years When we move in with each other Then we should be even happier together.
@lunivore “That won’t work because…”
System Illusion of jus fica on Normalcy bias transparency Decoy effect Insensi vity Confirma on Loss to sample Bandwagon False Fundamental Bias Aversion size effect consensus Pessimism A ribu on Nega vity effect bias Error 159 Cogni ve Omission Dis nc on Op mism biasbias Hyperbolic bias bias discoun ngGoogle effectBiases on Overconfidence Illusion of Naïve effectCryptomnesia Restraint biasControl Wikipedia cynicism Actor- Pseudocertainty Stereotyping Observer Anchoring effect Choice- Apophenia Bias Pareidolia Worse-than-suppor ve Trait average bias ascryp on Forer effect effectCongruence bias Moral luck bias Failure Scenarios
Given my boyfriend and I have been going out for four years When we move in with each other Then we might get on each other’s nerves.
@lunivore A Safe-To-Fail Probe has…
A way of knowing it’s succeeding A way of knowing it’s failing A way of dampening it A way of amplifying it Coherence A way of avoiding failure completely
@lunivore The Probe
“How about we try it for 1 year as an experiment?”
@lunivore
The Palchinsky Principles
Seek out new ideas and try new things
When trying something new, do it on a scale where failure is survivable
Seek out feedback and learn from your mistakes as you go along
@lunivore @lunivore