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Safe-To-Fail Probe Has… Liz Keogh [email protected] If a project has no risks, don’t do it. @lunivore The Innovaon Cycle Spoilers Differentiators Commodities Build on Cynefin Complex Complicated sense, probe, analyze, sense, respond respond Obvious Chaotic sense, act, categorize, sense, respond respond With thanks to David Snowden and Cognitive Edge EsBmang Complexity 5. Nobody has ever done it before 4. Someone outside the org has done it before (probably a compeBtor) 3. Someone in the company has done it before 2. Someone in the team has done it before 1. We all know how to do it. Esmang Complexity 5 4 3 Analyze Probe (Break it down) (Try it out) 2 1 Fractal beauty Feature Scenario Goal Capability Story Feature Scenario Vision Story Goal Code Capability Feature Code Code Scenario Goal A Real ProjectWhoops, Don’t need forgot this… Can’t remember Feature what this Scenario was for… Goal Capability Story Feature Scenario Vision Story Goal Code Capability Feature Code Code Scenario Goal Oops, didn’t know about Look what I that… found! A Real ProjectWhoops, Don’t need forgot this… Can’t remember Um Feature what this Scenario was for… Goal Oh! Capability Hmm! Story FeatureOoh, look! Scenario Vision Story GoalThat’s Code funny! Capability Feature Code Er… Code Scenario Dammit! Oops! Oh F… InteresBng! Goal Sh..! Oops, didn’t know about Look what I that… found! We are uncovering be^er ways of developing so_ware by doing it Feature Scenario Goal Capability Story Feature Scenario Vision Story Goal Code Capability Feature Code Code Scenario Goal We’re discovering how to discover stuff by doing it Can’t Don’t need Whoops, remember this… forgot what this was for… Um… Oh! Hmm! Ooh, look! That’s funny! Er… Oops! Sh..! Dammit! Oh F… InteresBng! Oops, didn’t know about Look what I that… found! Risk (Newest Stuff) First Feature Scenario Goal Capability Story FeatureStory ScenarioFeature Vision ScenarioStory GoalGoal Code Capability Feature Code Code Scenario Goal If your stakeholders don’t trust you, that’s your biggest risk A Safe-To-Fail Probe has… A way of knowing it’s succeeding A way of knowing it’s failing A way of dampening it A way of amplifying it Coherence Coherence A realisBc reason for thinking the probe might have a posiBve impact Can you give me an example? @lunivore Well-formed outcomes Vision Hearing Smell Taste Sensaon KinestheBc PropriacepBon @lunivore In high uncertainty… …scenarios provide coherence, not tests @lunivore Coherence Given my boyfriend and I have been going out for four years When we move in with each other Then we should be even happier together. @lunivore “That won’t work because…” System Illusion of jusBficaon Normalcy bias transparency Decoy effect InsensiBvity Confirmaon Loss to sample Bandwagon False Fundamental Bias Aversion size effect consensus Pessimism AribuBon Negavity effect bias Error 159 Cognive Omission Disncon OpBmism biasbias Hyperbolic bias bias discounngGoogle effectBiases on Overconfidence Illusion of Naïve effectCryptomnesia Restraint biasControl Wikipedia cynicism Actor- Pseudocertainty Stereotyping Observer Anchoring effect Choice- Apophenia Bias Pareidolia Worse-than-supporve Trait average bias ascrypBon Forer effect effectCongruence bias Moral luck bias Failure Scenarios Given my boyfriend and I have been going out for four years When we move in with each other Then we might get on each other’s nerves. @lunivore A Safe-To-Fail Probe has… A way of knowing it’s succeeding A way of knowing it’s failing A way of dampening it A way of amplifying it Coherence A way of avoiding failure completely @lunivore The Probe “How about we try it for 1 year as an experiment?” @lunivore The Palchinsky Principles Seek out new ideas and try new things When trying something new, do it on a scale where failure is survivable Seek out feedback and learn from your mistakes as you go along @lunivore @lunivore .
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