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Entwicklung Einer Methodik Zur Unterstützung Der Forschungsberichte Institut für Produktentwicklung am Karlsruher Institut für Technologie Narucha Tanaiutchawoot Entwicklung einer Methodik zur Unterstützung der Entscheidungsfindung auf der Grundlage heuristischer Entscheidungen in der Produktentwicklung und im Innovationsmanagement Developing a method to support decision making based on heuristic decisions in product development and inno- vation management Band 132 Herausgeber: Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dr. h.c. A Albers Copyright: IPEK • Institut für Produktentwicklung, 2020 Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) Die Forschungsuniversität in der Helmholtz-Gemeischaft Alle Rechte vorbehalten Druck: Stolzenberger Druck und Werbung GmbH & Co. KG, Leimen 06224-7697915 ISSN 1615-8113 Entwicklung einer Methodik zur Unterstützung der Ent- scheidungsfindung auf der Grundlage heuristischer Entscheidungen in der Produktentwicklung und im Innovationsmanagement Zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades einer DOKTORIN DER INGENIEURWISSENSCHAFTEN (Dr.-Ing.) von der KIT-Fakultät für Maschinenbau des Karlsruher Instituts für Technologie (KIT) angenommene DISSERTATION von M.Eng. Narucha Tanaiutchawoot Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 04.12.2020 Hauptreferent: Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dr. h. c. Albert Albers Korreferent: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Mirko Meboldt Vorwort der Herausgeber (Stand: Juli 2017) Wissen ist einer der entscheidenden Faktoren in den Volkswirtschaften unserer Zeit. Der Unternehmenserfolg wird mehr denn je davon abhängen, wie schnell ein Unternehmen neues Wissen aufnehmen, zugänglich machen und verwerten kann. Die Aufgabe eines Universitätsinstitutes ist es, hier einen wesentlichen Beitrag zu leisten. In den For- schungsarbeiten wird ständig Wissen generiert. Dieses kann aber nur wirksam und für die Gemeinschaft nutzbar werden, wenn es in geeigneter Form kommuniziert wird. Diese Schriftenreihe dient seit mehr als 20 Jahren als eine Plattform zum Transfer und macht damit das Wissenspotenzial aus aktuellen Forschungsarbeiten am IPEK - Institut für Pro- duktentwicklung Karlsruhe* am Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) verfügbar. Die Forschung des IPEK ist dabei strukturiert in die Kategorien Systeme, Methoden und Pro- zesse, um so der Komplexität heutiger Produktentwicklung ganzheitlich gerecht zu wer- den. Erst die Verknüpfung dieser drei Kategorien ermöglicht die Synthese innovativer Systeme durch Nutzung neuester Methoden und Prozesse. Gleichzeitig werden durch die Systemsynthese die erforschten neuen Methoden und Prozesse validiert und deren Mehrwert für die Praxis abgesichert. Dieses Forschungskonzept prägt nicht nur das IPEK-Leitbild, sondern auch den Charakter dieser Schriftenreihe, da immer alle drei Ka- tegorien und deren Wechselwirkungen berücksichtigt werden. Jeder Band setzt hier in- dividuelle Schwerpunkte und adressiert dabei folgende Forschungsgebiete des IPEK: • das Entwicklungs- und Innovationsmanagement, • die Entwicklungs- und Konstruktionsmethodik, • der Leichtbau von der Ebene des ganzen Systems bis hinunter zur Optimierung des Bauteils, • die Validierung technischer Systeme auch unter Berücksichtigung der NVH As- pekte (Noise, Vibration, Harshness) mit dem Fokus auf Schwingungen und Akus- tik an Komponenten und in den Gesamtsystemen sowie deren subjektiver Beur- teilung durch den Menschen, • die Antriebssystemtechnik mit den Schwerpunkten komplette Antriebslösungen für Fahrzeuge und Maschinen, • das Design, die Tribologie und Erprobung von Kupplungen und Bremsen sowie • die Gerätetechnik mit dem Schwerpunkt auf Power-Tools. Die Forschungsberichte stellen Ergebnisse unserer Forschung sowohl anderen Wissen- schaftlern als auch den Unternehmen zu Verfügung um damit die Produktentwicklung in allen ihren Facetten mit innovativen Impulsen zu optimieren Albert Albers und Sven Matthiesen Vorwort zu Band 132 Die moderne Produktentwicklung hat zum Ziel, marktgerechte Produkte und technische Systeme zu erzeugen, die den auf den Märkten geforderten Kunden- und Anwendernutzen befriedigen und dabei gleichzeitig den Anbieternutzen im Sinne einer entsprechenden Ren- ditebildung im Unternehmen sicherstellen. Dabei ist zu berücksichtigen, dass in den heuti- gen globalen Käufermärkten ein extremer Wettbewerb herrscht und gleichzeitig die Pro- duktlösungen, insbesondere durch die Kombination von Mechanik, Elektrik und Software zu mechatronischen Gesamtlösungen, zunehmend komplexer geworden sind. Grundsätz- lich kann die Produktentwicklung als ein kontinuierlicher Prozess aus dem Wechsel zwi- schen Synthese- und Analyseaktivitäten beschrieben werden. Hier hat die Gruppe um AL- BERS in den letzten Jahren umfangreiche methodische und prozessorientierte Lösungen dargestellt. Eine Kernhypothese ist dabei das Zurückführen von Produktentwicklungsauf- gaben auf Problemlösungsprozesse. Diese Problemlösungsprozesse haben zum Ziel, ei- nen vorliegenden Istzustand, zum Beispiel die aktuellen technischen Lösungen für eine Aufgabenstellung am Markt, hin zu einem neuen Sollzustand, also neue technische Lösun- gen für diese Aufgabenstellung mit einem höheren Potenzial zu beschreiben. Grundsätz- lich bedeutet Problemlösung dabei unter anderem eine permanente Entscheidung zwi- schen Alternativen. Dieses Entscheiden im Produktentstehungsprozess geschieht nur in sehr wenigen Fällen ausführlich methodisch strukturiert und mit einer harten dedizierten Vorgehensweise. Viel öfter ist der Typus der heuristischen Entscheidung im Produktent- wicklungsprozess, wo Menschen aufgrund ihrer Erfahrung, ihres Hintergrunds und auch der aktuellen Situation alleine oder in Gruppen viele Entscheidungen spontan treffen, die dann den Fortgang des Produktentstehungsprozesses aber oft sehr stark beeinflussen. Dieser Prozess der sogenannten heuristischen Entscheidungsfindung ist also im Alltag der Produktentwicklung von großer Bedeutung. Ihn besser zu verstehen und methodisch zu unterstützen ist eine Aufgabe, der sich Frau Narucha Tanaiutchawoot in ihrer wissenschaft- lichen Arbeit gestellt hat. Sie möchte dabei als Teil der KaSPro – Karlsruher Schule für Produktentwicklung eine Methoden zur Unterstützung der Entscheidungsfindung erarbei- ten, die vor allem dafür sorgen, dass der sogenannte kognitive Bias reduziert wird. Der kognitive Bias beschreibt die individuelle Beeinfussung von Menschen bei heuristischen Entscheidungen durch die Randbedingungen. Diesen Effekt zu untersuchen und Methoden zur Vermeidung vorzuschlagen ist Kern der Arbeit. Sie leistet damit einen Beitrag zum bes- seren Verständnis der Entscheidungsfindung in der Praxis und schlägt unterstützende Me- thoden vor. Dezember, 2020 Albert Albers Kurzfassung Die Entscheidungsfindung ist ein wichtiger Faktor, der die Produktentwicklung so steu- ert, dass sie auf dem Markt erfolgreich ist oder scheitert. Die meisten Entscheidungen beruhen auf den verfügbaren Informationen, Berechnungen und Analysen verschie- dener systematischer Methoden. Diese Methoden können jedoch keine definitiv rich- tige und gute Entscheidung liefern, insbesondere unter Unsicherheit und begrenzten Informationen. Die Entscheidungsfindung mit einfachen Strategien und mentalen Pro- zessen, die heuristische Entscheidungen genannt werden, wird dann automatisch an- gewendet, um eine Lösung zu finden. Obwohl Heuristiken in vielen Situationen hilf- reich sind, können sie zu Entscheidungsverzerrungen führen. Diese Forschung zielt darauf ab, das Auftreten Entscheidungsverzerrungen bei der Verwendung von Heuristiken zur Entscheidungsfindung zu untersuchen. Dies zu ver- stehen und sich dessen bewusst zu sein, ist wichtig für die Verbesserung der Ent- scheidungseffizienz. Darüber hinaus wurden die De-Biasing Techniken entwickelt, um kognitive Probleme zu lösen und Entscheidungsfehler zu reduzieren, die durch Ent- scheidungsverzerrungen verursacht werden. Informationen aus der Literatur und empirischen Studien zeigen viele Erscheinungen von heuristischen Entscheidungen und Verzerrungen während der Entscheidungsfin- dung in verschiedenen Aktivitäten der Produktentwicklung - insbesondere bei der Pri- orisierung von Alternativen und der Auswahl der Lösung. Methoden zum Umgang mit den Entscheidungsverzerrungen bei der Entscheidungsfindung in der Produktentwick- lung wurden dann durch die Modifizierung verfügbarer Techniken aus anderen Berei- chen entwickelt und zur Behandlung der kognitiven Vorurteile bei der Entscheidungs- findung in der Produktentwicklung angewandt. Es wurden vier Arten von De-Biasing Techniken entwickelt und in einem Rahmenwerk vorgeschlagen, die in Experimenten unter simulierten und realen Situationen angewandt und ausgewertet wurden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Entscheidungsverzerrungen mit verschiedenen Entzer- rungstechniken auf der Grundlage der Ziele und Ableitung von Vorurteilen behandelt werden kann. Diese Techniken können mit einer Art von Verzerrung umgehen, aber auch zu einer anderen Art von Verzerrung führen. Darüber hinaus gibt es keine Ant- wort darauf, dass Entscheidungen mit oder ohne Verzerrungen eine korrekte Lösung bieten können. Daher ist die geeignetste Methode zur Behandlung von Entschei- dungsverzerrungen in der Produktentwicklung, das Bewusstsein der Entscheidungs- träger für heuristische Entscheidungen und Verzerrungen zu schärfen. Somit kann der Entscheidungsträger entscheiden, die Entscheidungen und Lösungen zu akzeptieren oder abzulehnen. i Abstract Decision making is an important factor that controls product development to be suc- cess or fail in the market. Most decisions rely on the available information, calculation, and analysis of different systematic methods.
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