Debiasing Management Decisions: Overcoming the Practice/Theory Gap Within the Managerial Decision Process
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The Status Quo Bias and Decisions to Withdraw Life-Sustaining Treatment
HUMANITIES | MEDICINE AND SOCIETY The status quo bias and decisions to withdraw life-sustaining treatment n Cite as: CMAJ 2018 March 5;190:E265-7. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.171005 t’s not uncommon for physicians and impasse. One factor that hasn’t been host of psychological phenomena that surrogate decision-makers to disagree studied yet is the role that cognitive cause people to make irrational deci- about life-sustaining treatment for biases might play in surrogate decision- sions, referred to as “cognitive biases.” Iincapacitated patients. Several studies making regarding withdrawal of life- One cognitive bias that is particularly show physicians perceive that nonbenefi- sustaining treatment. Understanding the worth exploring in the context of surrogate cial treatment is provided quite frequently role that these biases might play may decisions regarding life-sustaining treat- in their intensive care units. Palda and col- help improve communication between ment is the status quo bias. This bias, a leagues,1 for example, found that 87% of clinicians and surrogates when these con- decision-maker’s preference for the cur- physicians believed that futile treatment flicts arise. rent state of affairs,3 has been shown to had been provided in their ICU within the influence decision-making in a wide array previous year. (The authors in this study Status quo bias of contexts. For example, it has been cited equated “futile” with “nonbeneficial,” The classic model of human decision- as a mechanism to explain patient inertia defined as a treatment “that offers no rea- making is the rational choice or “rational (why patients have difficulty changing sonable hope of recovery or improvement, actor” model, the view that human beings their behaviour to improve their health), or because the patient is permanently will choose the option that has the best low organ-donation rates, low retirement- unable to experience any benefit.”) chance of satisfying their preferences. -
A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display 2 Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display The Human 3 Three kinds of limitations: humans • Human vision ️ has limitations • Human reasoning 易 has limitations The Human 4 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation 5 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation Color perception 6 易 Cognitive bias Behaviors when humans consistently behave irrationally Pohl’s criteria distilled: • Are predictable and consistent • People are unaware they’re doing them • Are not misunderstandings 7 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, -
A Dissertation Entitled Exploring Common Antecedents of Three Related Decision Biases by Jonathan E. Westfall Submitted As Parti
A Dissertation Entitled Exploring Common Antecedents of Three Related Decision Biases by Jonathan E. Westfall Submitted as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology __________________________ Advisor: Dr. J. D. Jasper __________________________ Dr. S. D. Christman __________________________ Dr. R. E. Heffner __________________________ Dr. K. L. London __________________________ Dr. M. E. Doherty __________________________ Graduate School The University of Toledo August 2009 Exploring Common Antecedents ii Copyright © 2009 – Jonathan E. Westfall This document is copyrighted material. Under copyright law, no parts of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the expressed written permission of the author. Exploring Common Antecedents iii An Abstract of Exploring Common Antecedents of Three Related Decision Biases Jonathan E. Westfall Submitted as partial fulfillment of the requirements for The Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology The University of Toledo August 2009 “Decision making inertia” is a term loosely used to describe the similar nature of a variety of decision making biases that predominantly favor a decision to maintain one course of action over switching to a new course. Three of these biases, the sunk cost effect, status-quo bias, and inaction inertia are discussed here. Combining earlier work on strength of handedness and the sunk cost effect along with new findings regarding counterfactual thought, this work principally seeks to determine if counterfactual thought may drive the three decision biases of note while also analyzing common relationships between the biases, strength of handedness, and the variables of regret and loss aversion. Over a series of experiments, it was found that handedness differences did exist in the three biases discussed, that amount and type of counterfactuals generated did not predict choice within the status-quo bias, and that the remaining variables potentially thought to drive the biases presented did not link causally to them. -
1. Service Evaluations and Qualitative Research
EAHP Academy Seminars 20 - 21 September 2019 Brussels #ACASEM2019 EAHP Academy Seminars 20-21 September 2019 Introduction to service evaluation and qualitative research Jonathan Underhill, NICE and Keele University, UK Ulrika Gillespie Uppsala University Hospital, Sweden Conflicts of interest • No conflicts of interest to declare Introduction • Understanding how humans make decisions and its impact on: – Communicating findings – Conducting research • Answering questions using qualitative and quantitative studies Introduction • Understanding how humans make decisions and its impact on: – Communicating findings – Conducting research • Answering questions using qualitative and quantitative studies What do we know about how people make decisions? • Behavioural economics and cognitive psychology: – Bounded rationality (Herbert Simon 1978) – Dual process theory (Daniel Kahneman 2002) – Most decisions are informed by brief reading and talking to other people - please find a piece of paper and a pen - a list of words follows look at them once, do not re-read them - when you have read the list close your eyes Flange Routemaster Laggard Sausages Automaton Approach Antichrist Research Slipper Haggle Fridge Locomotive Bracket Confused Telesales Professor Stool pigeon Hale Banquet Irrelevance Write down as many words as you can remember Flange How many words Routemaster A that you remembered Laggard are in each group? Sausages Automaton Approach B Antichrist Research Slipper Haggle C Fridge Locomotive Bracket Confused D Telesales Professor Stool pigeon Hale E Banquet Irrelevance Herbert Simon 1978 Economics Bounded rationality Satisfycing Please list all the medicines which have a potential interaction with warfarin – both increasing and decreasing its effect Drug interactions with warfarin – decreased effect • Amobarbital • Primidone Butabarbital Ribavirin Carbamazepine Rifabutin Cholestyramine Rifampin Dicloxacillin Secobarbital Griseofulvin Sucralfate Mercaptopurine Vitamin K Mesalamine Coenzyme Q10 Nafcillin Ginseng Phenobarbital St. -
Power and Illusory Control
Research Paper No. 2009 Illusory Control: A Generative Force Behind Power’s Far-Reaching Effects Nathanael J. Fast Deborah H. Gruenfeld Niro Sivanathan Adam D. Galinsky December 2008 R ESEARCH P APER S ERIES Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1314952 Running Head: POWER AND ILLUSORY CONTROL Illusory Control: A Generative Force Behind Power’s Far-Reaching Effects Nathanael J. Fast and Deborah H Gruenfeld Stanford University Niro Sivanathan London Business School Adam D. Galinsky Northwestern University *In press at Psychological Science Please address correspondence concerning this article to Nathanael J. Fast, Department of Organizational Behavior, Stanford University, 518 Memorial Way, Stanford, CA 94305; email: [email protected]. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1314952 Power and Illusory Control 2 Abstract Three experiments demonstrated that the experience of power leads to an illusion of personal control. Regardless of whether power was experientially primed (Experiments 1 and 3) or manipulated through manager-subordinate roles (Experiment 2), it led to perceived control over outcomes that were beyond the reach of the powerholder. Furthermore, this illusory control mediated the influence of power on several self-enhancement and approach-related effects found in the power literature, including optimism (Experiment 2), self-esteem (Experiment 3), and action-orientation (Experiment 3), demonstrating its theoretical importance as a generative cause and driving force behind many of power’s far-reaching effects. A fourth experiment ruled out an alternative explanation: that positive mood, rather than illusory control, is at the root of power’s effects. The discussion considers implications for existing and future research on the psychology of power, perceived control, and positive illusions. -
Identifying Present Bias from the Timing of Choices∗
Identifying Present Bias from the Timing of Choices∗ Paul Heidhues Philipp Strack DICE Yale February 22, 2021 Abstract A (partially naive) quasi-hyperbolic discounter repeatedly chooses whether to com- plete a task. Her net benefits of task completion are drawn independently between periods from a time-invariant distribution. We show that the probability of complet- ing the task conditional on not having done so earlier increases towards the deadline. Conversely, we establish non-identifiability by proving that for any time-preference pa- rameters and any data set with such (weakly increasing) task-completion probabilities, there exists a stationary payoff distribution that rationalizes the agent's behavior if she is either sophisticated or fully naive. Additionally, we provide sharp partial identifica- tion for the case of observable continuation values. ∗We thank seminar and conference audiences, and especially Nageeb Ali, Ned Augenblick, Stefano DellaVigna, Drew Fudenberg, Ori Heffetz, Botond K}oszegi, Muriel Niederle, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, Charles Sprenger, Dmitry Taubinsky, and Florian Zimmermann for insightful and encouraging comments. Part of the work on this paper was carried out while the authors visited briq, whose hospitality is gratefully acknowledged. Philipp Strack was supported by a Sloan fellowship. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3386017 1 Introduction Intuition and evidence suggests that many individuals are present-biased (e.g. Frederick et al., 2002; Augenblick et al., 2015; Augenblick and Rabin, 2019). Building on work by Laibson (1997) and others, O'Donoghue and Rabin (1999, 2001) illustrate within the quasi-hyperbolic discounting model that present bias, especially in combination with a lack of understanding thereof, leads individuals to procrastinate unpleasant tasks and to precrastinate pleasant experiences. -
The Lightbulb Paradox: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE LIGHTBULB PARADOX: EVIDENCE FROM TWO RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENTS Hunt Allcott Dmitry Taubinsky Working Paper 19713 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19713 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 December 2013 We are grateful to Raj Chetty, Lucas Davis, Stefano DellaVigna, Mushfiq Mubarak, Sendhil Mullainathan, Emmanuel Saez, Josh Schwartzstein, and other colleagues, as well as seminar audiences at the ASSA Annual Meeting, the Behavioral Economics Annual Meeting, Berkeley, the European Summer Symposium for Economic Theory, Harvard, the NBER Public Economics Meetings, Resources for the Future, Stanford, the Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, UCLA, the University of California Energy Institute, and the University of Chicago for constructive feedback. We thank our research assistants - Jeremiah Hair, Nina Yang, and Tiffany Yee - as well as management at the partner company, for their work on the in-store experiment. Thanks to Stefan Subias, Benjamin DiPaola, and Poom Nukulkij at GfK for their work on the TESS experiment. We are grateful to the National Science Foundation and the Sloan Foundation for financial support. Files containing code for replication, the in-store experiment protocol, and audio for the TESS experiment can be downloaded from Hunt Allcott's website. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2013 by Hunt Allcott and Dmitry Taubinsky. -
Addressing Present Bias in Movie Recommender Systems and Beyond
Addressing Present Bias in Movie Recommender Systems and Beyond Kai Lukoffa aUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Abstract Present bias leads people to choose smaller immediate rewards over larger rewards in the future. Recom- mender systems often reinforce present bias because they rely predominantly upon what people have done in the past to recommend what they should do in the future. How can recommender systems over- come this present bias to recommend items in ways that match with users’ aspirations? Our workshop position paper presents the motivation and design for a user study to address this question in the domain of movies. We plan to ask Netflix users to rate movies that they have watched in the past for thelong- term rewards that these movies provided (e.g., memorable or meaningful experiences). We will then evaluate how well long-term rewards can be predicted using existing data (e.g., movie critic ratings). We hope to receive feedback on this study design from other participants at the HUMANIZE workshop and spark conversations about ways to address present bias in recommender systems. Keywords present bias, cognitive bias, algorithmic bias, recommender systems, digital wellbeing, movies 1. Introduction such as Schindler’s List [2]. Recommender systems (RS), algorithmic People often select smaller immediate re- systems that predict the preference a user wards over larger rewards in the future, a would give to an item, often reinforce present phenomenon that is known as present bias bias. Today, the dominant paradigm of rec- or time discounting. This applies to deci- ommender systems is behaviorism: recom- sions such as what snack to eat [1,2], how mendations are selected based on behavior much to save for retirement [3], or which traces (“what users do”) and they largely ne- movies to watch [2]. -
The Threat of Appearing Prejudiced and Race-Based Attentional Biases Jennifer A
PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE Research Report The Threat of Appearing Prejudiced and Race-Based Attentional Biases Jennifer A. Richeson and Sophie Trawalter Department of Psychology and C2S: The Center on Social Disparities and Health at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University ABSTRACT—The current work tested whether external heightened anxiety in anticipation of, as well as during, those motivation to respond without prejudice toward Blacks is interracial interactions that they are unable to avoid (Plant, associated with biased patterns of selective attention that 2004; Plant & Devine, 1998). Research by Amodio has found, reflect a threat response to Black individuals. In a dot- furthermore, that such high-EM individuals automatically probe attentional bias paradigm, White participants with evaluate Black targets more negatively than White targets, as low and high external motivation to respond without revealed by potentiated startle eye-blink amplitudes (Amodio, prejudice toward Blacks (i.e., low-EM and high-EM in- Harmon-Jones, & Devine, 2003), unlike people who are inter- dividuals, respectively) were presented with pairs of White nally motivated to respond in nonprejudiced ways toward and Black male faces that bore either neutral or happy Blacks. Taken together, this work suggests that exposure to facial expressions; on each trial, the faces were displayed Blacks automatically triggers negative affective reactions, in- for either 30 ms or 450 ms. The findings were consistent cluding heightened anxiety, in high-EM individuals. with those of previous research on threat and attention: Although Amodio’s work has begun to explore some of the High-EM participants revealed an attentional bias toward component processes that underlie differences between high- and neutral Black faces presented for 30 ms, but an attentional low-EM individuals’ affective and stereotypical evaluations of bias away from neutral Black faces presented for 450 ms. -
Communication Science to the Public
David M. Berube North Carolina State University ▪ HOW WE COMMUNICATE. In The Age of American Unreason, Jacoby posited that it trickled down from the top, fueled by faux-populist politicians striving to make themselves sound approachable rather than smart. (Jacoby, 2008). EX: The average length of a sound bite by a presidential candidate in 1968 was 42.3 seconds. Two decades later, it was 9.8 seconds. Today, it’s just a touch over seven seconds and well on its way to being supplanted by 140/280- character Twitter bursts. ▪ DATA FRAMING. ▪ When asked if they truly believe what scientists tell them, NEW ANTI- only 36 percent of respondents said yes. Just 12 percent expressed strong confidence in the press to accurately INTELLECTUALISM: report scientific findings. ▪ ROLE OF THE PUBLIC. A study by two Princeton University researchers, Martin TRENDS Gilens and Benjamin Page, released Fall 2014, tracked 1,800 U.S. policy changes between 1981 and 2002, and compared the outcome with the expressed preferences of median- income Americans, the affluent, business interests and powerful lobbies. They concluded that average citizens “have little or no independent influence” on policy in the U.S., while the rich and their hired mouthpieces routinely get their way. “The majority does not rule,” they wrote. ▪ Anti-intellectualism and suspicion (trends). ▪ Trump world – outsiders/insiders. ▪ Erasing/re-writing history – damnatio memoriae. ▪ False news. ▪ Infoxication (CC) and infobesity. ▪ Aggregators and managed reality. ▪ Affirmation and confirmation bias. ▪ Negotiating reality. ▪ New tribalism is mostly ideational not political. ▪ Unspoken – guns, birth control, sexual harassment, race… “The amount of technical information is doubling every two years. -
Attentional Bias and Subjective Risk in Hypochondriacal Concern. Polly Beth Hitchcock Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses Graduate School 1993 Attentional Bias and Subjective Risk in Hypochondriacal Concern. Polly Beth Hitchcock Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses Recommended Citation Hitchcock, Polly Beth, "Attentional Bias and Subjective Risk in Hypochondriacal Concern." (1993). LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses. 5641. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses/5641 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand corner and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. -
Emotional Reasoning and Parent-Based Reasoning in Normal Children
Morren, M., Muris, P., Kindt, M. Emotional reasoning and parent-based reasoning in normal children. Child Psychiatry and Human Development: 35, 2004, nr. 1, p. 3-20 Postprint Version 1.0 Journal website http://www.springerlink.com/content/105587/ Pubmed link http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dop t=Abstract&list_uids=15626322&query_hl=45&itool=pubmed_docsum DOI 10.1023/B:CHUD.0000039317.50547.e3 Address correspondence to M. Morren, Department of Medical, Clinical, and Experimental Psychology, Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands; e-mail: [email protected]. Emotional Reasoning and Parent-based Reasoning in Normal Children MATTIJN MORREN, MSC; PETER MURIS, PHD; MEREL KINDT, PHD DEPARTMENT OF MEDICAL, CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY, MAASTRICHT UNIVERSITY, THE NETHERLANDS ABSTRACT: A previous study by Muris, Merckelbach, and Van Spauwen1 demonstrated that children display emotional reasoning irrespective of their anxiety levels. That is, when estimating whether a situation is dangerous, children not only rely on objective danger information but also on their own anxiety-response. The present study further examined emotional reasoning in children aged 7–13 years (N =508). In addition, it was investigated whether children also show parent-based reasoning, which can be defined as the tendency to rely on anxiety-responses that can be observed in parents. Children completed self-report questionnaires of anxiety, depression, and emotional and parent-based reasoning. Evidence was found for both emotional and parent-based reasoning effects. More specifically, children’s danger ratings were not only affected by objective danger information, but also by anxiety-response information in both objective danger and safety stories.