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World Bank Document Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized RECENT ECONOMIC AND The 12-month food price index was 6.1 percent in SECTORAL December 2011, as compared to 15.2 percent a year ago. The food prices, however, continued being the DEVELOPMENTS major driver for inflation, contributing around 2.9 percentage points to the overall price increase. Price Growth Performance environment remained favorable over the first two months of 2012, with 0.9 percent of monthly The economy has continued to recover in 2011, deflation in February, which brought 12-month led by the mining and agriculture sectors. inflation down to 3.0 percent, as compared to 11.8 Economic growth (in year-on-year terms) picked percent in the same period a year before. up gradually from 2.1 percent in 2010 to 4.6 percent in 2011. Industry contributed more than Figure 2: Inflation returned to the target band half of the economic growth driven mainly by the (Actual inflation and the target bounds, %) mining sector and, to a lesser extent, agro- 14 industries. The industrial output surpassed the level of December 2008 (in the pre crisis period) by 17.5 12 percent. Agriculture also contributed 8.1 10 percentage points to the growth in the third 8 quarter. Continuing contraction in the construction 6 sector, however, partly offset these achievements. 4 2 Figure 1: Economic growth and sectoral 0 contributions 08 09 10 11 12 08 09 11 10 08 10 11 09 09 10 11 08 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (Share in GDP and real GDP growth, %) - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr 20 20.0 Lower bound (2.5%) Upper bound (5.5 %) CPI YoY 15 15.0 10 10.0 5 5.0 0 0.0 Improving the inflation outlook allowed -5 -5.0 -10 -10.0 loosening monetary policy. Along with the -15 -15.0 slowdown of the monthly inflation, the Central -20 -20.0 -25 -25.0 Bank reduced its policy (refinancing) rate by 50 basis points (to 8 percent) in 2011. The reduction took 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2008Q3 2009Q3 2010Q3 2011Q3 2007Q3 place in September 2011, when the 12-month Agriculture Construction inflation of 4.1 percent almost reached the target Manufacturing Other industry level (4±1.5 percentage point band). This policy rate Service GDP real growth (%), RHS remained unchanged since then. Downside risks remain given global economic uncertainties. But Russia’s growth and the Figure 3: Lower inflationary pressures allowed sustained inflow of remittances and FDI provide reducing the policy rate some economic stability. The economic outlook (Actual inflation and the policy rate, %) continues to largely depend on the tradable sectors’ ability to recover and expand. 14 9 12 8.5 8 10 7.5 Inflation Developments 8 7 6.5 Inflation returned to the band targeted by the 6 6 Central Bank in the second half of 2011. 4 5.5 5 Reflecting the slowdown in the rise of food prices in 2 the local market, the 12-month inflation declined to 4.5 0 4.7 percent in December 2011, within the 4±1.5 4 09 10 11 09 10 11 12 09 10 11 09 10 11 09 10 11 09 10 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - percentage point band set by the Central Bank. The - Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov Nov May May average monthly inflation in 2011 was only 0.4 May percent, or twice as low as the respective indicator in CPI YoY CBA policy rate, eop (RHS) 2010. 2 External Sector Performance Figure 5: Net FDI remains moderate (Net FDI, % of GDP) A favorable external environment helped 16 reduce external imbalances. The mining sector 14 and metallic manufacturing production accounted 12 for more than half of merchandise exports. The 10 export of minerals and metallic products follows 8 London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price for 6 copper very closely; decline in prices of base metals 4 may entail contraction of these exports. Metallic 2 minerals go primarily to the European Union 0 (mostly Germany), but the share of EU in total 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2008Q4 2009Q2 2009Q4 exports declined slightly in 2011. 2008Q2 Exports expanded to relatively new markets, such Further improvement of the business environment as Switzerland and Canada. The share of exports to is necessary to step-up FDI inflows. According to these countries increased by 3.4 percent in 2011. the Doing Business-2012 report, last year Armenia Merchandise exports and imports grew by 27.7 was among the top reformers worldwide improving percent (to US$ 1.3 billion) and 10.7 percent (to its position by six points in the global ranking. US$ 4.2 billion), respectively. Since imports in dollar terms are three times higher than exports, During the first nine months of 2011, the FDI the trade deficit widened by 4.2 percent and inflows into the real sector amounted to US$ 462.5 reached –US$ 2.8 billion. million; about 58 percent of which originated from Russia. Production of base metals, telecom, and Remittances increased by around 20 percent and energy attracted 29.3 percent, 21.5 percent, and reached 12.1 percent of GDP in 2011 contributing 15.1 percent of the total FDI respectively in to the improvement of the current account deficit January-December of 2011. At about 6 to 7 percent by 2.6 percentage points. of GDP, FDI inflows are quite respectable but have sizeable upward potential. Figure 4: Export of minerals reflected the trend of copper prices (Exports of mineral (mln USD) and the LME copper Fiscal Sector Performance price index (2007=100%)) The fiscal deficit improved further from 5 75.0 150.0 percent in 2010 to an estimated 3 percent in 70.0 140.0 2011. After the sharp deterioration from 0.7 65.0 percent of GDP in 2008 to 7.6 percent of GDP in 60.0 130.0 2009, the overall deficit has gradually improved 55.0 120.0 reaching 5.0 percent by the end of 2010. The deficit 50.0 45.0 110.0 shrank further last year to 2.7 percent, due to 40.0 100.0 economic rebound and an ambitious fiscal 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 consolidation plan implemented. - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jan Jun Oct Feb Sep Apr Dec Aug Mar Nov May Tax collections were in line with the planned Export of minerals and base metals amount, exceeding US$ 2 billion in 2011, though Copper price index (2007=100%), (RHS) the tax/GDP ratio declined to 19.3 percent due to higher-than-expected GDP and VAT refund. The tax collections in January-February are keeping up The medium term outlook for Armenia’s current with the plan, and mild inflationary environment account deficit largely depends on global contributes to the growth of tax revenue in real developments. With exports and remittances highly terms. dependent on international prices for commodities, the Armenian economy might suffer from any The key focus of the fiscal policy in 2011 was the adverse shock to terms of trade from global public finance consolidation on the background of developments. maintaining the share of pro-poor social spending. 3 On the revenue side, the major policy change was Figure 6: Growth in lending was relatively bringing the import of petroleum and diesel under stable around 30 percent, and growth of the general taxation regime, though the VAT rate deposits accelerated during the year. for diesel was set at 0 percent. On the expenditures (Growth of lending and deposits (year-on-year),%) side, the Government managed to protect pensions 50.0 45.0 and other priority social spending. In the 2011 40.0 budget the share of priority social programs 35.0 30.0 increased to 29.6 percent, relative to 29.1 percent in 25.0 20.0 the 2010 execution. The allocation to priority social 15.0 programs also increased as a share of GDP, from 10.0 5.0 7.8 to 8.2 percent over the same period. 0.0 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jan Jan Jun Oct Feb Sep Apr Dec Aug Mar Nov The 2012 approved budget continued addressing May the fiscal consolidation agenda expected to be Loans Deposits driven by the revenue collection efforts. The Government introduced a tax policy reform At end-2011, total banking sector assets amounted package targeted at increasing tax revenues by 100 to US$ 5.4 billion, or 59 percent of GDP. billion AMD. The changes include bringing retail Dollarization remains high. Despite higher risk of fuel under the general taxation regime, weights and provisioning on foreign exchange (FX) introducing more progressive personal income loans, FX credit continues to grow twice as fast as taxation (introduction of additional bracket), dram lending, as banks continued to draw down increasing the minimum level of social excess reserves at the CBA and accessed credit contribution, introducing a new tax on luxury cars lines with International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and premium alcohol, and increasing the and parent banks. To address this dollarization, the presumptive tax for casinos. The priority social Central Bank gradually changed the provisioning spending will continue to be protected, maintaining for the foreign exchange-denominated deposits, the share of about 29 percent in total expenditures. moving from the foreign currency to fully local The share of deficit in GDP is also expected to stay currency-denominated provisioning.
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