and Climate factClimate sheet

| 1. Country overview

Armenia – officially the Republic of Armenia – is bordered by Country-level to the north, Azerbaijan to the east, to the south and to the west. Azerbaijan – officially the Republic of Azerbaijan – is also bordered by Georgia to the north-west and Iran to the south. It is Figure 1: Map of Armenia. Source: Encyclopædia Britannica further bordered by to the north and the to the east. The population of Armenia is 2.9 million and the population of Azerbaijan is 10 million ( 2020a). Armenia’s (GDP) is 12.4 billion US dollars and Azerbaijan’s GDP is 48 billion US dollars (World Bank 2020a). Armenia and Azerbaijan are ranked 52nd and 73rd on the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) climate change readiness index (ND-GAIN 2020). Figure 2: Armenia’s ND-GAIN Ranking (ND-GAIN 2021). 1.1 Climate

Armenia

The influence Armenia’s climate, which ranges from dry sub-tropical to alpine. Average temperatures vary Figure 3: Map of Azerbaijan. significantly, due to the mountainous terrain. In low-lying areas, Source: Encyclopædia Britannica annual temperatures average around 12–14°C, with average highs reaching 26°C in August. In higher altitudes, annual average temperatures are -8°C with average summer highs around 10°C ( Agency for International Development (USAID) 2017a). Average annual precipitation in Armenia is approximately 530 millimetres (mm) per year (World Bank 2020b). However, similar to temperature, average precipitation varies significantly based on altitude, with an annual average of 200–250mm in the lowlands and Figure 4: Azerbaijan’s ND-GAIN 800mm to 1 metre (m) at higher altitudes (USAID 2017a). Ranking (ND-GAIN 2021).

2021 with support from the ICRC Azerbaijan

Similarly, Azerbaijan’s climate is influenced by the Caucasus Mountains in the north; however, there are extensive lowlands in the central region. Eastern Azerbaijan is modulated by the Caspian Sea. The varied topography results in nine climatic zones within Azerbaijan’s borders (USAID 2017b). Similarly, temperature and precipitation vary significantly throughout the country. Annual average temperature is 11.8°C, with lower temperatures in the mountainous areas and higher temperatures in the lowlands (USAID 2017b). Annual average precipitation in Azerbaijan is 427mm (World Bank 2020c). The eastern region receives approximately 200–350mm of precipitation per year, while the southern region receives 1.6–1.8m per year (USAID 2017b). Flooding is frequent, especially in the central and south-eastern regions (World Bank 2020c). Armenia and Azerbaijan 1.2 Climate change

Historical climate Projected Climate Temperature

In Armenia, annual temperatures increased by an In Armenia, average annual temperatures are projected average of 1.23°C in 1929–2016 (Republic of Armenia to increase by 1.6–2.2°C by 2050 (USAID 2017a). 2018).

Climate fact sheet Climate In Azerbaijan, average annual temperatures could In Azerbaijan, as of 2010, annual temperatures have increase by 2.4°C by 2050 and 4.5°C by 2090 (under |

increased by an average of 1.3°C compared to pre- RCP8.51) (World Bank 2020c). 1990 (World Bank 2020c). In both countries there will be an increase in the number of hot days per year and a decrease in the number of cold nights (USAID 2017a,b).

Precipitation

In Armenia, annual precipitation decreased by In both Armenia and Azerbiajan climate models are Country-level 10 per cent in 1935–2012 (World Bank 2020b). largely inconclusive regarding changes in annual average rainfall (World Bank 2020 b, c). However, it is projected In Azerbaijan, there has been a slight decrease in that intense rainfall events will increase, as rain is annual rainfall; however, there has been a significant concentrated over fewer days. increase in the number of flooding events, as rain, when it happens, is more intense (USAID 2017b). In Armenia, it is projected that the number of days with extreme rainfall will increase by 22–32 per cent by 2050 Armenia and Azerbaijan have both also experienced (USAID 2017b). a 50 per cent glacier loss in the century between 1906–2006 (USAID 2017b). In Azerbaijan, the likelihood of severe droughts will rise significantly (World Bank 2020c). The likelihood of floods The landlocked Caspian Sea is highly sensitive to is also on the rise (USAID 2017b). fluctuations in precipitation, runoff and evaporation. Following a sharp rise in sea level from 1977 to the early 1990s, the height of the Caspian Sea has steadily declined due to increasing evaporation as air temperatures warm under a changing climate (Chen et al. 2017).

1 RCP8.5 refers to a high-emissions scenario.

2 with support from the ICRC 2.Humanitarian sectors and climate change

2.1 Water and habitat

Water

Armenia and Azerbaijan Water sources in the region come mainly from the large Kura-Araks river basin that covers two- thirds of the territory of Azerbaijan, the whole of Armenia, 50 per cent of Georgia, and small percentages of Turkey and Iran, totalling an area of 190,110km2 (Food and Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 2008). The hydrology and meteorology of the basin is complex: it lies in the high-gradient topographic zone of the Caucasus mountains as well in a hydrological and meteorological system on the border of the Mediterranean and dry continental air masses. Annual precipitation varies significantly throughout the basin, with an average of 565mm of rainfall per year (FAO 2008). These significant seasonal variations cause sharp increases in flow in the springtime and low baseflow in the winter months. Climate fact sheet Climate

|

Water scarcity may be a crucial issue in the region in the coming years (Ahouissoussi et al. 2014; Melkonyan 2015).Observed and projected increases in temperature and declines in annual precipitation throughout the basin mean pressure on water supply in an already water-stressed region (Adanalyan and Gevorgyan 2011). Notably, Armenia has seen a 50 per cent decline in glacial volume since the 1900s, and the water level of its largest freshwater lake, , is projected to recede by 16 centimetres (cm) annually (Gabrielyan 2014). These trends are coupled with increasing demand for irrigation to counter drought conditions as well as from an

Country-level increasingly urban population. For instance, Melkonyan (2015) estimates that, in current climate conditions, 3,000m3 of water per hectare is required to support agriculture and livelihoods and this will nearly double in future due to climate change. Similarly, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has projected that water supply in Azerbaijan will decrease by 23 per cent from 2021–2050 (UNFCCC 1992; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) n.d.). Whilst Armenia mainly uses the water from the Kura-Araks basin for agriculture and industry, Azerbaijan relies on it for 70 per cent of its drinking water (FAO 2008).

Finally, the declining quality of drinking water is also a concern – studies have shown links between water-scarcity caused by climate change and declines in the potability of water: with lower river base flow come changes in the hydro-chemical composition of the water, which include increases in the acidity of the water and higher concentrations of elements such as iron, and , making the water less drinkable. For instance, in the Ghaghara river in Armenia, these trends are resulting in levels of iron and manganese several hundred times higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) standards for potable water (Margaryan 2017).

3 with support from the ICRC Transboundary water management

The transboundary nature of the river basin complexifies its management and creates an interdependency between these countries. Inequalities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, both in supply and management, are exacerbated through this pressure. Azerbaijan is mostly lacking in water and Armenia experiences frequent shortages due to inconsistent management of the resource (FAO 2008).

Differences in the per capita supply of water between the countries mean differential water security situations. For instance, Armenia has an approximate 6.859 cubic kilometres (km3) of annual internal renewable water resources, while Azerbaijan has approximately 8.115km3 (FAO 2008). However, the distribution per capita means that Armenia is more resource secure, with Armenia and Azerbaijan 2,341m3 /capita/year, while Azerbaijan only has 825.7m3 /capita/year (FAO 2008).

The nature of management of this scarce resource occurs in a fraught transboundary context and there exist no water treaties between the three countries of the South Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Political tensions and conflict – notably between Armenia and Azerbaijan – have made the development of such cooperation as yet impossible (Vener and Campana 2008; Campana et al. 2012). Climate fact sheet Climate

Energy |

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan differ significantly in their sources of energy supply and production. Azerbaijan is one of the world’s highest producers of energy per capita due to its major exports of crude oil and gas. Armenia has no hydrocarbon resources, and for this is highly dependent on Russian supply of which provides 84 per cent of the country’s total consumption (Republic of Armenia 2018). Both countries are experiencing increases in energy demand, both from the industrial and residential sectors (Republic of Armenia 2018; International Energy

Country-level Agency n.d.).

In Azerbaijan, energy diversification is a major issue highlighted by recent national policies, notably as worries about stranded assets2 are pushing the country towards a focus diversifying sources of domestic energy consumption by adding, for example, energy from renewables to the grid (International Energy Agency n.d.). Both countries – but particularly Armenia – are seeing a push for the development of renewables to support growing demand and respond to trends in the global economy away from fossil fuels. Armenia’s goal is for renewable energy sources to supply 30 per cent of its electricity by 2030 (Yegparian 2020). Potential resources include already existing hydropower and increasing exploration of the solar and wind potential of the region (Stockholm Environment Institute 2009).

2 ‘Stranded assets’ are defined as resources or infrastructure that once were valuable but are no longer, often due to external factors such as changes in technology, habits, acceptability etc. These assets are understood to be at the end of their economic life, no longer valuable enough to meet the owner’s rate of return. Currently, the term is often used to refer to fossil fuel assets that have not yet been extracted and have lost their investment value, notably due to the energy transition.

4 with support from the ICRC Climate change threatens the non-fossil fuel electricity production in the region – indeed, loss of hydropower is thought to be one of the main impacts of lower precipitation and higher temperatures. This may lead to a greater reliance on thermal energy, causing both shortages and higher prices, which, in turn, will greatly increase inequalities of access which are already an issue in the region. In Armenia, research projects a lost electricity revenue equivalent of 0.25 per cent of the country’s GDP annually by 2100 (Stockholm Environment Institute 2009).

It may be important to know that significant clashes have erupted in the region around issues of energy production and supply. Notably, after the yet unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the mid 1990s, Azerbaijan and Turkey have built pipelines to transport hydrocarbon resources that bypass Armenia, which its government calls an “illegal blockade” (Yegparian 2020). The location of an important Armenian nuclear power plant is also a source of tension, lying only 16km away Armenia and Azerbaijan from the Turkish border and within range of conflict at the Armenian–Azerbaijan border. Indeed, in recent border clashes, threats were made by the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Azerbaijan towards the nuclear plant (Yegparian 2020).

Infrastructure

Most of the region’s public infrastructure was built during the Soviet era when large, comparatively inefficient irrigation and water distribution systems were the norm (Stockholm Environment Institute Climate fact sheet Climate

2009). The age and disrepair of the water systems already leads to 84 per cent distribution losses in |

Armenia. This may be too significant to be addressed by simply repairing the existing systems and instead requires modern infrastructure to be built (Stockholm Environment Institute 2009). In 2020, the Armenian Prime Minister, , announced a major investment of over half a billion US dollars in the upgrade of its energy infrastructure (News.am 2020).

Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will cause heighted damages to roads, highways and buildings. In Armenia, between 1998 and 2010, meteorological

Country-level hazards caused losses totalling 2.8 billion US dollars – an average of 450 million US dollars per year (USAID 2017a). Major landslides caused by storms (and sometimes seismic activity) are of particular concern, given the country’s topography and geology. Much of the country’s infrastructure lies in landslide-prone areas; for instance, in 2004–2007, mudslides caused damage to 200 homes (USAID 2017a). Rising temperatures are another risk to infrastructure including buildings, electrical grids and communication systems. In Azerbaijan, the estimated damage to infrastructure alone due to extreme weather events and sea level rise lies in the range of 18–25 million US dollars (UNDP n.d.).

5 with support from the ICRC 2.2 Economic Security

The relies strongly on its agricultural sector: agricultural activities accounted for 16.7 per cent of GDP in 2017 ( 2020) and approximately 39 per cent of employment (USAID 2017a) – mainly smallholder family farms (FAO n.d.). Much of the land is used for pasture (57 per cent) and the main crops produced are potatoes, and other , and (FAO n.d.). It is clear that climate change poses a high risk to this sector, given how central it is to the country’s economy; for instance, 80 per cent of the aforementioned crops require constant irrigation for which water resources are already scarce (USAID 2017a). Extreme weather, such as drought and floods, have already cost the country’s agricultural sector 107 million US dollars in 2000–2005 – a burden only thought to increase in the coming years (USAID 2017a). All in all, research estimates that the productivity of crops in Armenia will Armenia and Azerbaijan decrease between 8–14 per cent, and livestock by 30 per cent (Gabrielyan 2014) in large part due to climatic changes and shocks.

The lies in contrast with the heavily agrarian one of Armenia. Indeed, in 2017, agriculture only contributed 6.1 per cent to Azerbaijan’s GDP but employed 39.7 per cent of its workforce, a sign of income inequality (The World Factbook 2020; World Bank 2012). Instead, the country is an important oil producer and exporter. However, arguments are being made about the need for diversification of this economic distribution, given the exhaustible nature of fossil fuels and trends in global energy demand which may be moving away from a reliance on Climate fact sheet Climate

oil (USAID 2017b). It is, therefore, likely that the agricultural sector in Azerbaijan may be made |

more important in the coming years, as a diversification and food security strategy (USAID 2017b). However, the geographic distribution of the agricultural sector in the country (80 per cent of farmland lies in arid or semi-arid areas of the country) exposes it to the impacts of climate change and, in particular, rainfall variability (USAID 2017b).

Three main impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in the region have been highlighted in a report by the Armenian Red Cross Society (Gabrielyan, 2014). The first is the

Country-level upward migration of crop ranges as their viability zone moves to higher altitudes; 100m by 2030, and 200–400m higher by 2100 (Gabrielyan, 2014). The second is that higher temperatures and decreased precipitation are leading to a generalized reduction in crop yields. Finally, extreme weather and changing seasonality also threaten the survival of crops and livestock throughout the agricultural calendar. Additionally, declines in soil fertility and water availability, the spread of diseases and morbidity of plants and animals, and a need to increase agricultural expenditure are causing economic pressure and food insecurity (Gabrielyan, 2014; Ahouissoussi et al. 2014). Some advantages have also been highlighted, such as projections of longer growing seasons, milder winters, increases in crop yields for certain crops with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and geographic expansion of certain ranges for plants and animals (Gabrielyan, 2014)

As described above, observations of desertification as well as projections of higher temperatures and lower precipitation (as well as increased demand) are putting pressure on an already strained water infrastructure in the agricultural sector (Ahouissoussi et al. 2014). Efficient irrigation infrastructure has the potential to lessen the burden of a changing climate on the agricultural sector, to a certain extent; but, research has shown a lack of climate-defence infrastructure (e.g. irrigation systems) in the region, making it less resilient to climate shocks (Stockholm Environment Institute 2009). Water infrastructure in Armenia’s highlands, for example, are particularly at risk – research projects that they will become 30–40 per cent more vulnerable to increased demand and decreased supply (Gabrielyan, 2014).

6 with support from the ICRC Other climate impacts on the region’s economy include the pressure of weather hazards on economic activity and infrastructure. For instance, in Azerbaijan, research estimates that flooding cost 2–2.5 billion US dollars since 1987; impacting 10,000 hectares (ha) of irrigated lands and 40,000 ha of winter pastures (World Bank 2012). In 2010, the loss of 33 per cent of the annual production, compared to 2009, has been mainly linked to flooding in agricultural land (World Bank 2012).

Briefly, note that the tourism industry in both Armenia and Azerbaijan is growing, now contributing 15.7 per cent and 8 per cent of the countries’ GDP, respectively (Privacy Shield Framework. n.d.; USAID 2017b). However, it is climate-sensitive, highly dependent on maintaining current climate conditions for skiing, beach vacations and hiking (USAID 2017b). Changes in seasonality and extreme weather events may pose a significant threat to the development of this sector. Armenia and Azerbaijan

Finally, climate change poses a risk to Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea coast. 40 per cent of the country’s population lives on this coast, which is also home to 75 per cent of the country’s industry (USAID 2017b). As a landlocked sea, the Caspian is quite vulnerable to sea level fluctuations due to imbalances between precipitation, runoff and evaporation. Following a sharp rise in sea level from 1977 to the early 1990s, the height of the Caspian Sea has steadily declined due to increasing evaporation as air temperatures warm due to climate change. (Chen et al. 2017). Indeed, a 2017 USAID report calculates that climate change has already cost 2 billion US dollars in economic damages, and a projected 4.10 billion US dollars of these damages is Climate fact sheet Climate

expected in the next 40 years (USAID, 2017b). |

2.3 Health

Research has highlighted that the health impacts of heatwaves and cold snaps disproportionally affect people who are energy poor. This includes older people, especially those above 65 years of age; people with pre-existing medical conditions, such as heart disease, respiratory illnesses and

Country-level diabetes; and people who have a disability (Mayrhuber et al. 2018). There is clear evidence of the increased frequency and length of heatwaves in the region: the average duration of heatwaves in Armenia’s capital city of increased by approximately 40 days in 1981–2013 (USAID 2017a). Similarly, research has shown that the frequency of heatwaves in Azerbaijan has increased fivefold since 1990, the duration rising 1.6–5.4 days every 10 years; while the duration of cold snaps seems to have fallen slightly (calculated at 0.3–2 days every 10 years) (USAID 2017b).

Expansion of malaria and the increased incidence of cholera are two significant health impacts of climate change that have been noted in Armenia (Gabrielyan, 2014). While malaria cases were low and stable until the late 1990s, by the end of the millennia they had risen to an epidemic of over 1,000 cases in the Ararat Valley on the border with Turkey. Since then, public health measures and epidemiological controls have led cases to drop to almost zero (FAO 2008). In 2013, the WHO added Armenia to the list of countries where malaria has been successfully eliminated (WHO 2011). However, public health officials are remaining on heightened alert because climatic changes are creating more favourable conditions for mosquito breeding and malaria transmission. For instance, in the highlands of Azerbaijan these favourable conditions have increased by 15–30 days in the past 60 years (FAO 2008).

7 with support from the ICRC 2.4 Protection

Conflict-caused displacement has been a longstanding issue in the region. In 2002, in the tailings of the armed conflict that permeated the South Caucasus after the collapse of the , it was reported that more than a million people remained displaced in the region (Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe 2002). More recently, the region’s refugee population has mainly come from Syria. As of January 2020, the UN reports that 14,746 Syrian refugees remain in Armenia out of the 22,000 who had arrived in 2014–2018 (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) 2020). These refugee communities are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their living conditions, economic insecurity and difficulties in accessing public services.

Armenia and Azerbaijan Another type of population displacement can be found in rural to urban and international migration. Indeed, the economic and livelihood impacts described above have forced migration from particularly exposed areas of the region – including the Caspian Sea coast and communities vulnerable to climate shocks, such as farmers – towards the region’s growing cities as well as the rest of Europe (Gabrielyan, 2014). It may be interesting to note as well that temporary migration is also a key movement in the region, particularly for mining activity in the mountainous regions where the harsh climate and location make it difficult to promote permanent settlement (Yeganyan 2006). Climate fact sheet Climate

Gender inequalities have also been highlighted as an impact of climate change in the region. |

Armenia is a signatory to most of the international treaties on gender equality, and the government has recently drafted an update to its Gender Equality Strategy 2019–2023. The country’s electoral code also makes it mandatory that 25 per cent of those running for elected office be women, who now fill a quarter of national assembly seats (Asian Development Bank 2019). Women’s formal workforce participation is still low, however, with inequalities in terms of labour access and skill-matching. For instance, 65.2 per cent of the “economically inactive” young adults are women, who are often educated but cannot join the labour force due to family

Country-level obligations (USAID 2019). Wage disparities between genders are also high (women earn on average 67.5 per cent of what men earn), although data is showing a decline in the wage gap, particularly since 2014 (Asian Development Bank 2019; USAID 2019).

The issue of gender inequality has ramifications for climate resilience. Indeed, women are disproportionately affected by climate shocks and the impacts of natural hazards. For instance, the traditional economic and social roles held by women in the region, including domestic tasks and agricultural labour as well as care for children and the elderly, makes them particularly exposed to climate shocks. In Armenia, 29.2 per cent of female-headed households have a higher incidence of poverty than male-headed households. Since economic security is essential for disaster recovery, these generally poorer households often have more difficulty bouncing back from disasters (USAID 2019). As the risk of hydroclimatic hazards increases due to anthropogenic climate change, poverty gaps may widen and should be proactively addressed.

Around the world, prisoners frequently have heightened vulnerability to natural disasters due to: spatial marginalization, resulting from prison locations on hazard-prone land and/or isolation from emergency evacuation services; limited to no connections to social networks, which are crucial aspects to hazard resilience; and, political marginalization, including a lack of policies and services to prevent disaster impacts on imprisoned populations (Gaillard and Navizet 2012). While literature does not specifically speak to this issue in the context of Armenia and Azerbaijan, these vulnerabilities, coupled with more frequent and intense disasters due to climate change, may leave

8 with support from the ICRC prison populations particularly vulnerable to hazards such as extreme heat, extreme cold and floods. This can include locations that have not previously experienced such risks historically.

2.5 Policy

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan signed and ratified the 2015 Paris Agreement in 2016 and 2017. Under this, they have both submitted their first intended nationally determined contributions (INDC), which lay the groundwork for climate change mitigation and adaptation in the respective countries.

Under Armenia’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) promoting a “green economy” is a Armenia and Azerbaijan major principle – one in which green growth is aligned with social and economic development goals (Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia 2015). Analysis has shown that the NDC allows for a +104 per cent jump in greenhouse gas emissions in 2010–2030 (University of Melbourne 2020). In adaptation, key commitments are in the sectors of agriculture, energy, health, infrastructure, natural ecosystems, tourism and water management – all sectors prioritized as the most vulnerable to climate change (Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia 2015). At the national level, in 2019, the Armenian government and UNDP announced the launch of a “National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to advance medium- and long-term adaptation planning in Armenia”. Financed by the UNDP Green Climate Fund, the Climate fact sheet Climate

NAP identifies risks and supports investment in the priority sectors identified by the NDC in |

2015 (UNDP n.d.).

In its second national communication to the UNFCCC in 2010, the Azerbaijan government highlights the high potential in the country for alternative energy generation (notably wind and small hydroelectric stations), indicating a desire to shift away from fossil fuel reliance which had already been in national policy through the State Programme on Alternative and Renewable Energy Sources signed in 2004 (Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources,

Country-level Republic of Azerbaijan 2010). From this, Azerbaijan’s INDC targets a 35 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990s levels. Mitigation efforts in the oil and gas, and energy sectors include upgrades in infrastructure, reductions in loss and waste, and adoption of new production technologies aligned with EURO5 emissions standards (UNFCCC 2015). In the residential and commercial sectors, the INDC makes a push for new technologies and local water management, and a promotion of renewable energy sources and infrastructure. A state policy entitled “Development Concept. Azerbaijan – 2020: Outlook for the future” outlines certain recent mitigation policies undertaken by the country, notably state programmes on social-economic development of the regions (2014–2018) and for the development of industry (2015–2020) (UNDP/GEF 2018).

9 with support from the ICRC References

Armenian Red Cross Society, Gabrielyan, A. National Climate Vulnerability Assessment - Armenia. A review from the Climate Forum East project, 2014. https://climateforumeast.org/uploads/other/0/569.pdf

Adanalyan A., Gevorgyan S. ‘The Global Climate Change Impact on Water Resources of Armenia’. In: Baba A., Tayfur G., Gündüz O., Howard K., Friedel M., Chambel A. (eds) Climate Change and its Effects on Water Resources. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, vol 3. Springer, Dordrecht. 2011. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-94-007-1143-3_14

Asian Development Bank. Armenia - Country Gender Assessment, 2019 https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/ institutional-document/546716/armenia-country-gender-assessment-2019.pdf

Armenia and Azerbaijan Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., ‘Azerbaijan’ Map n.d. https://www.britannica.com/place/Azerbaijan

Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., ‘Armenia’ Map n.d. https://www.britannica.com/place/Armenia

Campana, M.E., Vener, B.B. and Lee, B.S. ‘Hydrostrategy, hydropolitics and security in the Kura‐Araks Basin of the South Caucasus’ in Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, Vol. 49(1), pp. 22–32, 2012. https://onlinelibrary. wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1936-704X.2012.03124.x

Chen, J.L., Pekker T., Wilson C.R., Tapley B.D., Kostianoy A.G., Cretaux J.‐F. and Safarov E.S. ‘Long-term Caspian Sea level change’ in Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44(13), pp. 6993–7001, 2017. https://doi. org/10.1002/2017GL073958

Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook. GDP - Composition, by sector of origin, 2020. https://www.cia.gov/ Climate fact sheet Climate

library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/214.html |

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Armenia. From: Irrigation in the Middle East region in figures. AQUASTAT Survey, 2008. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/ARM/ARM-CP_eng.pdf

FAO. Kura–Araks River Basin. From: Irrigation in the Middle East region in figures. AQUASTAT Survey, 2008. http://www.fao. org/nr/water/aquastat/basins/kura-araks/kura.araks-CP_eng.pdf

FAO. Armenia at a Glance n,d. http://www.fao.org/armenia/fao-in-armenia/armenia-at-a-glance/en/

Gaillard, J. C. and Navizet, F. ‘Prisons, prisoners and disaster’ in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 1(1), Country-level pp. 33–43, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.05.001

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II, Nicholls, R.J., Wong, P.P., Burkett V.R., Codignotto J.O., Hay J.E., McLean R.F., Ragoonaden S. and Woodroffe C.D. ‘Coastal systems and low-lying areas’ in Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Parry M.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson, C.E. (eds). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg2-chapter6-1.pdf

International Energy Agency. Azerbaijan n.d. https://www.iea.org/countries/azerbaijan

International Organization for Migration, Yeganyan, G. ‘Vulnerability to heatwaves and implications for public health interventions – A scoping review’ in Migration Perspectives Eastern Europe and Central Asia pp.17–26, 2006. https:// publications.iom.int/es/system/files/pdf/migrationperspectives.pdf#page=25

Margaryan, L.A. ‘Assessment of the climate change impact on the quality and quantity of drinking water sources in Armenia’ in Russian Journal of General Chemistry, Vol. 87(13), pp.3160–3165, 2017. https://link.springer.com/ article/10.1134/S1070363217130096

Mayrhuber, E.A.S., Dückers, M.L., Wallner, P., Arnberger, A., Allex, B., Wiesböck, L., Wanka, A., Kolland, F., Eder, R., Hutter, H.P. and Kutalek, R. ‘Vulnerability to heatwaves and implications for public health interventions: A scoping review’ in Environmental research, Vol. 166, pp.42–54, 2018. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/ S0013935118302706

10 with support from the ICRC Melkonyan, A. ‘Climate change impact on water resources and crop production in Armenia’ in Agricultural Water Management, Vol. 161, pp.86–101, 2015. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378377415300500

Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, Republic of Azerbaijan. Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2010. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/azenc2.pdf

Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of the Republic of Armenia. Submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 22 September 2015. https:// www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Armenia%20First/INDC-Armenia.pdf

News.am. ‘More than half billion USD for reconstruction, upgrade of Armenia energy infrastructure’ (VIDEO), 6 July 2020. https://news.am/eng/news/589540.html

OC Media. Armenia offers assistance to refugees as thousands flee Turkish offensive’, 15 October 2019. https://oc-media. org/armenia-prepares-to-accept-more-refugees-as-thousands-flee-turkish-offensive/

Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Situation of refugees and displaced persons in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Armenia and Azerbaijan Georgia. Report to the Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography, 4 June 2002. http://assembly.coe.int/nw/ xml/XRef/X2H-Xref-ViewHTML.asp?FileID=9761&lang=EN

Privacy Shield Framework. ‘Armenia: travel and tourism’ n.d. https://www.privacyshield.gov/article?id=Armenia-tourism- and-travel-services#:~:text=According%20to%202018%20World%20Travel%20Tourism%20Council%20 Report%2C%20in%20Armenia%3A&text=The%20total%20contribution%20of%20Travel,of%20total%20 employment)%20in%202017.

Republic of Armenia. Second Biennial Update Report under the UN Convention on Climate Change, 2018. http://www.mnp. am/uploads/1/15302535542BUR_eng_final.pdf

Republic of Azerbaijan. Submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on the Intended

Climate fact sheet Climate Nationally Determined Contribution of the Republic of Azerbaijan n.d. https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/

| PublishedDocuments/Azerbaijan%20First/INDC%20Azerbaijan.pdf

Stockholm Environment Institute. The Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change in Armenia, 2009.

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Managing droughts and floods in Azerbaijan, n.d. https://www.undp. org/content/undp/en/home/ourwork/ourstories/managing-droughts-and-floods-in-azerbaijan-.html

UNDP, Global Environment Facility. Second Biennial Update Report of the Republic of Azerbaijan to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2018. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Second%20Biennial%20 Update%20Report%20-%20Azerbaijan-version%20for%20submission.pdf Country-level UNDP. NAP for advancing medium and long-term adaptation planning in Armenia. Project overview n.d. https://www. adaptation-undp.org/projects/NAP-armenia

UNDP. Managing droughts and floods in Azerbaijan. A climate change adaptation project n.d. https://www.undp.org/ content/undp/en/home/ourwork/ourstories/managing-droughts-and-floods-in-azerbaijan-.html

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). UN in Armenia. Mandate, 2020. https://www.un.am/en/ agency/UNHCR

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Treaty doc. no. 102–38, 1771 U.N.T.S. 107, 9 May 1992. https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf

University of Melbourne, Armenia factsheet evaluating its INDC, n.d. http://climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/indc-factsheets/ armenia

University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN). Our work, 2020. https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country- index/download-data/

United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Climate risk profile: Armenia, 2017(a). https://www. climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2017_USAID_Climate%20Change%20Risk%20Profile_Armenia.pdf

USAID. Climate risk profile: Azerbaijan 2017(b). https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2017_ USAID_Climate%20Change%20Risk%20Profile_Azerbaijan.pdf

USAID 2019. USAID/Armenia Gender Analysis Report August 2019. https://banyanglobal.com/wp-content/ uploads/2019/09/USAID-Armenia-Gender-Analysis-Report-1.pdf.

11 with support from the ICRC Vener, B.B. and Campana, M.E. ‘Conflict, cooperation, and the new “great game” in the Kura-Araks Basin of the South Caucasus in Proceedings, Universities Council on Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Conference, Durham, NC., 2008. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/af3e/9d388cea91e7067a63358019940ab5d13310. pdf

World Bank, Ahouissoussi, N., Neumann, J.E., Okan, C., Boehlert, B. and Strzepek, K. Reducing the vulnerability of Azerbaijan’s agricultural systems to climate change: Impact assessment and adaptation options, 2014. https://elibrary. worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/978-1-4648-0184-6

World Bank. The Republic of Azerbaijan: Climate change and agriculture, June 2012. Note.”http://documents1.worldbank. org/curated/en/575751468014471558/pdf/954070WP0Azerb00Box391416B00PUBLIC0.pdf

World Bank. World Bank Data Portal, 2020(a). https://data.worldbank.org/country/

World Bank, Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Armenia, 2020(b). https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/ armenia/climate-data-historical#:~:text=Armenia’s%20climate%20can%20be%20described,and%20June%20 the%20wettest%20months Armenia and Azerbaijan World Bank, Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Azerbaijan, 2020(c). https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/ country/azerbaijan/climate-data-projections?variable=pr

World Data. Asylum applications and refugees from Armenia, 2020. https://www.worlddata.info/asia/armenia/asylum.php

World Health Organization (WHO). Certificate of Malaria Elimination in Armenia, 7 October 2011. https://www.euro.who. int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/165611/1.pdf

Yegparian, G. ‘’ in Armenian Weekly, 3 January 2020. https://armenianweekly.com/2020/01/03/energy-in- armenia/ Climate fact sheet Climate

|

Country-level

12 with support from the ICRC