Armenia and Climate factClimate sheet | Azerbaijan 1. Country overview Armenia – officially the Republic of Armenia – is bordered by Georgia Country-level to the north, Azerbaijan to the east, Iran to the south and Turkey to the west. Azerbaijan – officially the Republic of Azerbaijan – is also bordered by Georgia to the north-west and Iran to the south. It is Figure 1: Map of Armenia. Source: Encyclopædia Britannica further bordered by Russia to the north and the Caspian Sea to the east. The population of Armenia is 2.9 million and the population of Azerbaijan is 10 million (World Bank 2020a). Armenia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 12.4 billion US dollars and Azerbaijan’s GDP is 48 billion US dollars (World Bank 2020a). Armenia and Azerbaijan are ranked 52nd and 73rd on the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) climate change readiness index (ND-GAIN 2020). Figure 2: Armenia’s ND-GAIN Ranking (ND-GAIN 2021). 1.1 Climate Armenia The Caucasus Mountains influence Armenia’s climate, which ranges from dry sub-tropical to alpine. Average temperatures vary Figure 3: Map of Azerbaijan. significantly, due to the mountainous terrain. In low-lying areas, Source: Encyclopædia Britannica annual temperatures average around 12–14°C, with average highs reaching 26°C in August. In higher altitudes, annual average temperatures are -8°C with average summer highs around 10°C (United States Agency for International Development (USAID) 2017a). Average annual precipitation in Armenia is approximately 530 millimetres (mm) per year (World Bank 2020b). However, similar to temperature, average precipitation varies significantly based on altitude, with an annual average of 200–250mm in the lowlands and Figure 4: Azerbaijan’s ND-GAIN 800mm to 1 metre (m) at higher altitudes (USAID 2017a). Ranking (ND-GAIN 2021). 2021 with support from the ICRC Azerbaijan Similarly, Azerbaijan’s climate is influenced by the Caucasus Mountains in the north; however, there are extensive lowlands in the central region. Eastern Azerbaijan is modulated by the Caspian Sea. The varied topography results in nine climatic zones within Azerbaijan’s borders (USAID 2017b). Similarly, temperature and precipitation vary significantly throughout the country. Annual average temperature is 11.8°C, with lower temperatures in the mountainous areas and higher temperatures in the lowlands (USAID 2017b). Annual average precipitation in Azerbaijan is 427mm (World Bank 2020c). The eastern region receives approximately 200–350mm of precipitation per year, while the southern region receives 1.6–1.8m per year (USAID 2017b). Flooding is frequent, especially in the central and south-eastern regions (World Bank 2020c). Armenia and Azerbaijan 1.2 Climate change Historical climate Projected Climate Temperature In Armenia, annual temperatures increased by an In Armenia, average annual temperatures are projected average of 1.23°C in 1929–2016 (Republic of Armenia to increase by 1.6–2.2°C by 2050 (USAID 2017a). 2018). Climate fact sheet Climate In Azerbaijan, average annual temperatures could In Azerbaijan, as of 2010, annual temperatures have increase by 2.4°C by 2050 and 4.5°C by 2090 (under | increased by an average of 1.3°C compared to pre- RCP8.51) (World Bank 2020c). 1990 (World Bank 2020c). In both countries there will be an increase in the number of hot days per year and a decrease in the number of cold nights (USAID 2017a,b). Precipitation In Armenia, annual precipitation decreased by In both Armenia and Azerbiajan climate models are Country-level 10 per cent in 1935–2012 (World Bank 2020b). largely inconclusive regarding changes in annual average rainfall (World Bank 2020 b, c). However, it is projected In Azerbaijan, there has been a slight decrease in that intense rainfall events will increase, as rain is annual rainfall; however, there has been a significant concentrated over fewer days. increase in the number of flooding events, as rain, when it happens, is more intense (USAID 2017b). In Armenia, it is projected that the number of days with extreme rainfall will increase by 22–32 per cent by 2050 Armenia and Azerbaijan have both also experienced (USAID 2017b). a 50 per cent glacier loss in the century between 1906–2006 (USAID 2017b). In Azerbaijan, the likelihood of severe droughts will rise significantly (World Bank 2020c). The likelihood of floods The landlocked Caspian Sea is highly sensitive to is also on the rise (USAID 2017b). fluctuations in precipitation, runoff and evaporation. Following a sharp rise in sea level from 1977 to the early 1990s, the height of the Caspian Sea has steadily declined due to increasing evaporation as air temperatures warm under a changing climate (Chen et al. 2017). 1 RCP8.5 refers to a high-emissions scenario. 2 with support from the ICRC 2.Humanitarian sectors and climate change 2.1 Water and habitat Water Armenia and Azerbaijan Water sources in the region come mainly from the large Kura-Araks river basin that covers two- thirds of the territory of Azerbaijan, the whole of Armenia, 50 per cent of Georgia, and small percentages of Turkey and Iran, totalling an area of 190,110km2 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 2008). The hydrology and meteorology of the basin is complex: it lies in the high-gradient topographic zone of the Caucasus mountains as well in a hydrological and meteorological system on the border of the Mediterranean and dry continental air masses. Annual precipitation varies significantly throughout the basin, with an average of 565mm of rainfall per year (FAO 2008). These significant seasonal variations cause sharp increases in flow in the springtime and low baseflow in the winter months. Climate fact sheet Climate | Water scarcity may be a crucial issue in the region in the coming years (Ahouissoussi et al. 2014; Melkonyan 2015).Observed and projected increases in temperature and declines in annual precipitation throughout the basin mean pressure on water supply in an already water-stressed region (Adanalyan and Gevorgyan 2011). Notably, Armenia has seen a 50 per cent decline in glacial volume since the 1900s, and the water level of its largest freshwater lake, Lake Sevan, is projected to recede by 16 centimetres (cm) annually (Gabrielyan 2014). These trends are coupled with increasing demand for irrigation to counter drought conditions as well as from an Country-level increasingly urban population. For instance, Melkonyan (2015) estimates that, in current climate conditions, 3,000m3 of water per hectare is required to support agriculture and livelihoods and this will nearly double in future due to climate change. Similarly, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has projected that water supply in Azerbaijan will decrease by 23 per cent from 2021–2050 (UNFCCC 1992; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) n.d.). Whilst Armenia mainly uses the water from the Kura-Araks basin for agriculture and industry, Azerbaijan relies on it for 70 per cent of its drinking water (FAO 2008). Finally, the declining quality of drinking water is also a concern – studies have shown links between water-scarcity caused by climate change and declines in the potability of water: with lower river base flow come changes in the hydro-chemical composition of the water, which include increases in the acidity of the water and higher concentrations of elements such as iron, zinc and manganese, making the water less drinkable. For instance, in the Ghaghara river in Armenia, these trends are resulting in levels of iron and manganese several hundred times higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) standards for potable water (Margaryan 2017). 3 with support from the ICRC Transboundary water management The transboundary nature of the river basin complexifies its management and creates an interdependency between these countries. Inequalities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, both in supply and management, are exacerbated through this pressure. Azerbaijan is mostly lacking in water and Armenia experiences frequent shortages due to inconsistent management of the resource (FAO 2008). Differences in the per capita supply of water between the countries mean differential water security situations. For instance, Armenia has an approximate 6.859 cubic kilometres (km3) of annual internal renewable water resources, while Azerbaijan has approximately 8.115km3 (FAO 2008). However, the distribution per capita means that Armenia is more resource secure, with Armenia and Azerbaijan 2,341m3 /capita/year, while Azerbaijan only has 825.7m3 /capita/year (FAO 2008). The nature of management of this scarce resource occurs in a fraught transboundary context and there exist no water treaties between the three countries of the South Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Political tensions and conflict – notably between Armenia and Azerbaijan – have made the development of such cooperation as yet impossible (Vener and Campana 2008; Campana et al. 2012). Climate fact sheet Climate Energy | Both Armenia and Azerbaijan differ significantly in their sources of energy supply and production. Azerbaijan is one of the world’s highest producers of energy per capita due to its major exports of crude oil and gas. Armenia has no hydrocarbon resources, and for this is highly dependent on Russian supply of natural gas which provides 84 per cent of the country’s total consumption (Republic of Armenia 2018). Both countries are experiencing increases in energy demand, both from the industrial and residential sectors (Republic of Armenia 2018; International Energy Country-level Agency n.d.). In Azerbaijan, energy diversification is a major issue highlighted by recent national policies, notably as worries about stranded assets2 are pushing the country towards a focus diversifying sources of domestic energy consumption by adding, for example, energy from renewables to the grid (International Energy Agency n.d.). Both countries – but particularly Armenia – are seeing a push for the development of renewables to support growing demand and respond to trends in the global economy away from fossil fuels.